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Isolated Frost

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Everything posted by Isolated Frost

  1. Numero uno, it's October. Numero dos, yes we are, a lot of the time in fact, just that lots of people prefer negatives and remember them more also. Numero tres, we are on the edge of the Atlantic; a pretty large piece of warm water, it's only due to atmospheric quirks that we get weather besides mild, cloudy westerlies...
  2. First 7 days here in October had an anomaly of +4.4c! The average minimum was in fact 5.5c above the usual; this is going to take a huge hit, especially if tonights EC verifies (or comes very close to).
  3. What a great EC for a taste of winter! No snow (at least within 10 days) or sleet, but quite cold and synoptically very similar to the evolution of other cold spells. Scandinavia and Eastern Europe (especially Russia) will see a lot of colder weather over the next few weeks w/ retrogression in full force and the Atlantic taking it's first battering.
  4. And indeed d10 is a scorcher (for mid October, and if scorcher is pretty cold); w/ the retrogression going full moon. Wouldn't bank on an immediate return to milder conditions at all. Cooler and drier than usual the likely outcome I'd say.
  5. Top notch regression at d9 on the EC- very cold across Scandinavia and Eastern Europe prior to this as well- and Gav, I wouldn't bank on much sunshine anywhere, with a lot of low cloud cover likely to rotate and delve into the HP cell throughout next week. The negative tilted Atlantic trough has been a major feature of recent years- will be interesting to see whether the EC and other NWP continue to project it. All in all, a pretty cool and cloudy week likely for most, with snow and sleet and sun at a premium. Plenty of drizzle and low cloud though.
  6. Indeed, an extremely warm start, the first 8 days in October were warmer than the first 8 of September here in Durham; which I presume is not a regular occurence. Getting much cooler up here though- with temperatures at day hovering around 10c and nighttime temperatures returning to average over the next few days; I'd imagine with the influence of a cooler NE/E wind more prone to attack S England w/ the proximity of the high for northern areas apparent, the CET may well drop down more than the UK average.
  7. Would be nice for tonights EC to continue its recent output of a slack N/NE flow into Scandinavia w/ very cold uppers I assume at d8 onwards; the domination of the HP cell seems to be the name of the NWP game at the moment, and the first notable retrogression and associated contraction of the Polar Jet of the winter. Haven't heard the term 'WAA' in a while...
  8. this isn't october! 19c and warm sunshine today! :D

    1. Thundery wintry showers

      Thundery wintry showers

      Omdeed. after a bright showery day on Thursday, the subsequent outlook has "cold and grey" written all over it!

    2. Isolated Frost

      Isolated Frost

      Nout wrong with a bitta raw easterly wind TWS! Get yersel' doon the coast!

      In all honesty- the EC output would be classic from mid Nov to mid Mar- but it'll be fun to experience different weather to now, and the cold and grey go perfect with the festive season imo.

    3. Captain Shortwave

      Captain Shortwave

      Agree with you TWS, it almost for me feels like I have to endure some truly dreadful weather to appease those who want a weather scenario which is practically impossible to achieve in the first half of October

    4. Show next comments  18 more
  9. No correlation between a cool surface high interlude and mid-October and the winter that follows.
  10. Here in Durham, the first 5 days of October have been 1c warmer than the last 20 of September, and over half a degree above September's value of 12.75c. The next few days look average if not slightly warmer than usual, before a steady drop to mid-month.
  11. Another warm October day, 15c, cloud and sun with a slight breeze. Very much comfortable weather.
  12. Top chart; cold and wintery in Scandinavia w/ very cold uppers dashing south into Europe, and some low temperatures under a cool inversion high here in the UK. Perfect to build up the excitement for Winter.
  13. Ground frosts generally occur here in October, or sometimes mid-late September. It only got down to 3c in September though, so we're still waiting. Air frost is usually late October, or November; very rarely earlier.
  14. That's why I always give my prediction as soon as the thread is made and stick by it- you do realise the tendency for people to go with the NWP output for the first few days of the month and go by that to a large extent; I'm thinking 11c might be on the low side simply due to the strength of this start, but not a clue after that. October is a great month; the first 5 days are on average much warmer than the last 5 and for that reason, much trickier to predict.
  15. Most we got here was 5-6 inches, in mid-January 2013... but down the road in Consett and Derwentside, Cloud 10 and others saw a foot and even more in drifts off of a huge snow event towards the end of the spell. 2008-09: largest depth 11cm 2009-10: largest depth 34cm 2010-11: largest depth 42cm 2011-12: largest depth 1cm 2012-13: largest depth 15cm
  16. It is the small light purple in NE Greenland... but no need to look as the 12z reading shows that the cold is most certainly back...
  17. Says it all really, a very mild first third, a cold middle third, and a pretty average final third contribute to a very average month. Minima around average and maxima slightly below.
  18. And it looks like much of Scandinavia could see its first (albeit weak) arctic outbreak by d5.
  19. The first live sub -20c 850hpa air for 4 and a half months in the Northern Hemisphere, here we go...
  20. Not the biggest fan of straight E, or ESE flows- mostly cloudy and with some light snow/snizzle here in the NE; very cold though w/ some ice days and low minima, temps supressed- unless it's extremely cold, then heavy snow is possible. Much prefer the NNE-NE-ENE flow with Ac air, from Scandinavia w/ an accompanied upper low in the Benelux-Germany-Alps-Baltic, large snow amounts likely w/ sunshine at times. N-NNW-NW flows often provide mostly cold sunshine, with some rain/snow shrs depending on the airmass, a nice flow to have. WNW-W-WSW-SW-SSW all seem to be milder (maybe not the first 2 at times) with cloud, sun, and sometimes rain/sleet. S-SSE-SE very much dull and boring weather, sometimes cold, sometimes milder depending on the continent.
  21. Do have the feeling that November, December and January will all have very similar temperatures , maybe between 4 and 5c, before February goes mad.
  22. Too mild! I don't mind sticking the heating on if we have one nice spell w/ sun and clear skies, highs in the late teens, lows near freezing with ground frost, more seasonal please!
  23. I don't care much more cold at the moment, the warmth is pleasant and there's some sun to brighten it up as well; and much of Russia and Eastern Europe are cooling very nicely , would like one more warm spell w/ sun, one Scandinavia northerly blast w/ snow for much of Scandi - and then time to go cold as we move into November.
  24. It's all due to Rossby waves- it's very much hit and miss, and often subject to stratospheric blocking penetrating lower levels: though as CM says, recently it's been a lot more like image 1.
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