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Isolated Frost

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Everything posted by Isolated Frost

  1. a cooler (but still relatively mild) night to come, before a week of Atlantic domination, at least it's interesting I guess

    1. Eugene


      3C is not relatively mild for October

    2. Isolated Frost

      Isolated Frost

      Bizarrely, I live in a different spot to the coldest place in England tonight. Got down to 6c, average here for late Oct is roughly 5c minima and 11c maxima.

  2. Here, the average maximum has only been 1c above the average, but the minima is currently running at +3.3c the average, so extremely mild nights. So much so that only 3 of the 22 minimum temperatures have been below the average of 6.2c!
  3. warm, but wet... feels nice in the approximately 43 seconds a day we get when it's not urinating it down

    1. Richard2901


      Doesn't feel nice at all whether it's raining or not. It's not raining at the moment but it's gloomy, dull and barely light. Just unrelentingly awful and depressing. Last even vaguely acceptable day was the 12th.

  4. Devoid of frosts, but bar that, some low and high maxima, some sunny days, mostly cloudy/wet days, with a few storms. You can never really get the average October, though this is very close. Remember October 2012 was very cold, so 2013 is simply its counter act. I agree with Bottesford, it's not been spectacularly abnormal.
  5. I've never read so much cobblers than on that website... and the German met isn't even involved; just one solitary meteorologist.
  6. Furthest model (GFS) is only going to the 1st of Nov atm! I wouldn't worry, I think that there will be a cold spell and quite a good one at that in Nov, based on composites.
  7. Surely the CET values don't personally affect as much as you're portraying?! A warm October, cool November and mixed Dec is how I predicted it in Sep; I think Oct may well be v warm, but Nov and Dec are the months where you actually want colder weather... I am disliking this weather though, mild, but cloudy and at times a lot of drizzle.
  8. Indeed; looks like it will be very short-lived though, next week looks very mild. Oct temp doesn't affect following winter usually though, Oct snow cover and ice area/extent much more important, so I'm enjoying the warmth, but it's bloody boring with no frosts or storms.
  9. not got below 5c in 40 days and no ground frosts in half a year...

    1. Evening thunder

      Evening thunder

      had 2.7c yesterday at home in east Devon

  10. 9c after a high of 11c. Cloud and rain throughout the day, about an hour of sun and feeling cold again.
  11. Isolated Frost

    Memories of the 90s

    I remember Sunderland; before the redevelopment, not much of it mind, but red walls, rubbish everywhere, roads in awful shape and an actual high street!
  12. Looks like being a pretty mild October unless we have an exceptional last 10 days. 3.1c above the average here in Durham; I'd imagine it's been one of the warmest first 10-11 days in history across the country, for October.
  13. They say it every winter, from 09-10 (very, very cold), 10-11 (actually record breaking aswell), 11-12 (much milder) and 12-13 (a pretty cold winter incl March), it doesn't affect the winter itself.
  14. Not very likely; look where the mild uppers reach; lots of changing in NWP as well, we're well above so I think it is a case of just waiting and calming down.
  15. Top temp 10c, coldest day since May (or perhaps earlier), plenty of sun and heavy rain shrs.
  16. 5c, after a rainy start, skies seem to be clearing. Cooler than of late.
  17. Coldest temperature all October now, and the dew point is 2c, the wind is howling and the sun is setting; uber Autumnal! Think it's time to fire up the heating...
  18. Isolated Frost

    Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

    That maybe because later on in that October, we had this?! I think the balance between a E/NE flow w/ complete retrogression and a southerly Atlantic trough into the Bay of Biscay, and a SW/S flow w/ little retrogression as a more meridional Atlantic trough takes command will see plenty of solutions in the next few days; to stay away from the pain and anguish many get, try focusing on one model and a specific run (i.e. GFS 6z every day..), I'm looking at the EC 12z each day for trends; and keeping other NWP and t-connections in mind as well; but the EC for me performs the best, and the 12z is available each evening. If we have anything remotely similar to this at 216, I'll be very pleased; a lot rests upon the NWP modelling of the retrogression around d6-d8 and how it copes with the Atlantic trough...
  19. 10c, feeling much cooler than of late. Heavy rain squall around midday, clear spells either side of that. Could get the coldest temperature of October tonight, which isn't as the coldest so far has been 3c above the minima average!
  20. todays was definitely different to recent; rain and sun, and it isn't 15c+ at 5pm!

    1. Eugene


      Or double figures overnight, zzzzzz that was getting boring

  21. No single figures yet, 10c low here this morning, though cooler of late. Mostly clear with cloudy patches.
  22. Isolated Frost

    First Air Frost watch autumn 2013

    Only got under 5c once so far in Autumn! Hopefully that will change with some cooler airmasses coming over, though I'm hoping it can clear at night for the first ground frost.