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Everything posted by Isolated Frost
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North West England Regional Discussion 16/01/13, 12z Onwards
Isolated Frost replied to Coast's topic in Regional
Don't worry, you'll all get some, don't let the 18zs knock you down. Watch the 00z EC, UKMO and GEM output. -
Scotland Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>
Isolated Frost replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
NAE and GFS are awful- wrong from initiation (see my post in far north regional)- the BBC and METO know what they're doing.. wait for the GFS to track back to the big 3 (GEM, UKMO, EC) -
UKMO at 120 GEM EC Retrogressive motion pulls a blocking high to the NE of Iceland- an extensive ridge from the s-tropical high, jet cut off- low pressure to the W/SW of the UK with cold east/south-east winds pulled in GFS for the same time? Messed up. Jet too progressive, flat s-tropical high, retrogressive thought about but retracted and the end result is W/SW'lies No support and a completely illogical solution- you can see what it does The changes start at 48/72 with the atlantic low- it's an overprogressive/op GFS trait- and will follow the main 3 v soon- the easterly on Sunday will not be as good as the GFS proggs, but the frontal activity should be better on Friday, and prolonged cold is more likely after Monday.. Watch the GFS slowly follow the other two.. tonight the best output is 1. ECMWF/GEM 2. UKMO - - - - - 4. GFS The UKMO is like the less severe, more cautious EC/GEM option, and is the one I would err too, so check the FAXes, and UKMO's especially when you wake up, as well as the EC and GEM suite- don't take notice of the GFS at all until it decides to pick its toys from the pram BBC forecast also goes against the GFS as close as Friday / Saturday - it's awful atm
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UKMO-GEM-ECM. That's it really, the GFS is awful at some of this now- and even the GEM is battling it imo- latest verification stats show they are close. A mash-up of the above 3 will do until the GFS realises the atlantic jet isn't going to tint up the GIN corridor and top energy over the blocking heights. -4c here btw.
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Noted above alza- the GFS won't verify- it pushes the atlantic jet into the blocking high and the blocking high sinks back into the flow, allowing the s-tropical high to extend and be flat instead of ridging- the GFS will catch up in time- regarding the situation before Sunday, any model could have this- maybe a halfway house?
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GFS completely missing up the pattern at Northern Latitudes- not retrogressing.. the EC/UKMO solution should definitely be favoured and so the GFS past +72 shouldn't really be used that much- the way it's overpowering the atlantic storms is also ridiculous with the EC/GEM/UKMO against it- take it as a westward shift- but only the 00s and 12s matter
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Yep- heavy snow from the North Sea for the NE from Friday night for at least a day or two. Yum yum- different to the EC and UKMO output- which the westerners will hope to shift west. We win anyway, if it shifts west, longer easterly flow, less marginality and colder uppers, if it shifts east, frontal snow - and then more convection. I love this place
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When there are westward corrections at +12, you know somethings up. The continental cold is smashing the atlantic, hammering it, obliterating it. EDIT: Not that I'm saying the GFS is the correct solution- I'm expecting it to be slightly east compared to the point at +36 on the 18z. I expect that it will be a similar run before FI (+120).
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London & South East Regional Discussion 16/01/13 18z------>
Isolated Frost replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Let's hope it actually pivots and doesn't do a Rachel! -
Scotland Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>
Isolated Frost replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Didn't think you'd all remember the yr.no site! I remember adding their meteo grams in early Dec and forgetting them until the cold came back! Here's hoping the Scots do a deal with EC when you (hopefully) get independence, meteograms and hi res data from Glasgow ;p What I like about it is how it actually counts the North Sea convection, unlike the GFS. -
North West England Regional Discussion 16/01/13, 12z Onwards
Isolated Frost replied to Coast's topic in Regional
8%, and it's most likely much higher, probably closer to 15-20%, so based on the EC predictions, looking at 12-18cm where you are BT. -
North West England Regional Discussion 16/01/13, 12z Onwards
Isolated Frost replied to Coast's topic in Regional
Bear in mind you're looking at the higher bands here- could well be less. Also, the rule may well be 1mm=1cm, but this is not always true, especially with the potential wet snow, with a high water content. I've not a clue whether it benefits you or not- but it's something to look into. -
Nick, I'm thinking UKMO-GEM-ECM mash-up, not the GFS imo. What I see is the GFS versus everything- and it just doesn't look right with teleconnections- Alza, if we clip the front, get a couple of inches, and get some slack E/SE'lies for Saturday to Wednesday (slight frontal incursion.. east flow Monday), then it's jackpot!
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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>
Isolated Frost replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
To answer that one, it's because milder uppers (only just) exist in the south and west- with a strong E'ly- a lot of angriness at the fact everything doesn't last forever, and that the BBC forecasts suggest some SLEET and RAIN (oh no ahhhhh). Short answer- don't look at the MT to gauge your opinion on Scottish weather- look on this thread, all the insight you need from LS, Lorenzo and others -
-8c uppers quite widely across the NE on Sat with surface cold quite embedded, dew points should be below zero for the most part. The only realistic problem, is the coast and nearby areas have strong south-easterlies, it could be a very close shave. The flow after that is 100% snow showers and frontal incursions.
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Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.
Isolated Frost replied to Coast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
48-168 was probably the best 5 day period I have seen on the EC since November 2010's prospects. And the reload potential from the NE after 168... is monster, the injection of polar energy into Scandinavia, the retrogressive motion completing over the GIN corridor, and the Azores high ridging into Greenland (MJO phase 7, ta)... cold bottling up for release is extraordinary. And the most extraordinary thing about is that the most extraordinary stuff is at D2-D7... from frontal to convective to frontal to convective to a bit of both, basically all of Scotland, England and parts of Wales are in for a snow-fest... combine that with the incredibly low temps over the snowfields.. wow. People have analysed the early part of the run enough... hemispherically, this is awesome