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Isolated Frost

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Everything posted by Isolated Frost

  1. Just read what the very useful OPI team response, and then the replies saying 'back to square one' and 'gutted'. As far as I can tell, the post simply confirmed a lot of what we thought, along with adding the IZE (which could also be useful for future), but the OPI-AO/CET correlation hasn't actually changed. Sub -1.5 OPIs have still provided pretty cold winters, and it's currently -2.43? Bon nuit.
  2. Utmost respect for the Met, but this is the OPI thread of course. And anyway, if we went by the contingency forecasts... where's my below average NDJ last year?
  3. -2.45 with 120 hours of input to go Considering that means it's had 624 hours of real data and 120 of forecasted data; so I think it's very much settled between -2.2 and -2.7; think everyone here would have took that on the 1st.
  4. I think most long term models are generally preset to a more mobile, traditional pattern and any notable differences will be tempered by its signals. I'm sure the OPI and SAI will override some signals; and the general correlation is strong enough to suggest that.
  5. Purely of social media discourse, Labour really do look like dying an unpredictable (at least back in 2010, even in 2013) death in Scotland. I know their seats are generally safe, but some, if not many are going to be taken, and I think this crisis regarding Scottish leadership is going to be the nail in the coffin regarding any chances of a Labour majority.
  6. Nothing like night walks. Get hammered? Astronomy?
  7. Personally it doesn't really matter too much, the hour is negligible- but I always like walking home at 4pm on December days, add to the festivities. Mind you, it being dark at 9:30am would certainly be interesting. I can see the point of moving to CEST during Summer though, when it's light at 3am, and dark at 11.
  8. As the 00z today takes +168 to get to 00z 1st November, I'd say we've got 2-3 days of any possibility of a spread above 0.8-1.0 (i.e. values dipping below 2.0 or above 3.0), but I think we've got a reliable landing range which means the OPI is going to be the 2nd lowest in its 38 years of recording. And looking at OPI-DJF AO composites, OPI-DJF CET composites, that is, at the very least, a very good start if you're looking for cold this winter. Of course there are many more pieces to the puzzle, but we're at no disadvantage to have one of the lowest OPI values on record.
  9. The last 4 values before were -1.89 -2.99 -2.75 -2.39 I'd be wary to say we're closing in, I think once we get to +96 (27th) we can be a lot more sure of a 0.2-0.4 landing figure; but the next couple days will change a bit I think.
  10. -2.39, a third consecutive drop if we compare the 12z day by day (which we should really). Just 8 more now...
  11. Curiously most of you will be waking up to a -2.99 OPI, based on the 0z. With the missing GFS data issues and what not, I'd say the spread is possibly larger than usual. But then again, I don't have a clue at all, nice to see it dip so negative though.
  12. It was gonna be 3.9c but his trainer told him not to for our good.
  13. According to the terminology used in explaining the OPI; the 0z coming up tomorrow morning will be the first run to factor in all of October (1-21 October actual, 22-31 forecast). I think from there, we can reach a more reliable and tight spread of solutions. If it's -2.13 at the end of the month, virtual pints on me.
  14. The better the 12z, the bigger fall you're setting yourself up for- it's all a trap! But seriously, it does look like another sub -2.5 run, just hoping for the next 10 days it can hold steady around here. Landing range between -1.5 and -2.5 I'd say.
  15. There's been 48 years of OPI recording, and in 8 of them, the OPI has been sub -1 (of course only one year, 2009, was sub -2) OPI (Winter CET anomaly) 2009: -3.15 (-2.1c) 1985: -1.9 (-1.6c) 1984: -1.8 (-1.8c) 1978: -1.8 (-2.9c) 1976: -1.75 (-1.2c) 2012: -1.65 (-0.7c) 1986: -1.3 (-1.0c) 1982: -1.1 (-0.2c) See, don't get too scared folks! Hell, even 1981-82, 1995-96 and 2010-11 are missing from here, night!
  16. Most pertinently, the OPI is largely based around Arctic pressure patterns (in October) and there is a distinct correlation between OPI (October patterns) and the Winter Arctic Oscillation. A blocked Arctic, if in the right places, in October, often leads to a more blocked Arctic come Winter itself.
  17. I thought the panicking was meant to be for Winter! It's the 2nd lowest OPI in 38 years of recording, and potentially the worst run we've seen a while; I'm sure we'll see it sub -2 sometime soon (not that it's particularly important to be so).
  18. This OPI malarkey is making me put down the drink, and giving me a happy perspective on life every morning.

    1. karyo

      karyo

      It is definately making a boring for me month much more interesting!

    2. Isolated Frost

      Isolated Frost

      A-levels give me major stress, the OPI thread is a ray of sunshine, it's all I need

    3. vizzy2004

      vizzy2004

      i like it, very nice, very handsome very cool

    4. Show next comments  3 more
  19. Further noting upon Phil n Warks excellent post #25, here is the CET-OPI correlation: And there's a very striking correlation in fact; of course there are a few discrepancies but near enough 0.9 correlation w/ the CET.
  20. By that reckoning, it's currently on around -1.8; and is expected to slowly rise. For reference (thanks to BFTV), winter OPI's between -1 and -2 are 76/77, 78/79, 82/83, 84/85, 85/86, 86/87, 12/13; so it wouldn't be a bad point to be at one bit (of course it's one part of the jigsaw as Tamara, Chiono, SM etc allude to above).
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