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Isolated Frost

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Isolated Frost last won the day on November 22 2012

Isolated Frost had the most liked content!

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About Isolated Frost

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    hola

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    Male
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    Sunderland
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  • Weather Preferences
    cold

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  1. been cooped up with the flu most of this week which has limited my enjoyment of the spell. 16cm here in ne38 compared to 42cm on december 3 2010, and 34cm in january 2010, and with less prolonged cold/snow and less extremes also, but a notable spell nonetheless. definitely the best since 2010. as with the nature of most showers, there's a lot of local disparity and so travelling a few miles north or south would provide better depths for sure. there's just something i appreciate much more about cold spells before the new year than those afterwards with uppers below -10c for about 5 days straight now, and colder ssts, i'd imagine that this has been a memorable week for the immediate coast in terms of snow falling and lying
  2. dark sky is usually on the money with its 1h precip forecasts
  3. expect a pretty snowy hour for durham in a few mins
  4. there’s that kink that explains why the showers will spend the majority of the day moving with a slight northwards trajectory. not usually the best for our region, but with -15c 850s across the sea, everyone can expect a little something
  5. kink in the upper level winds (and associated increase in gusts) means most the showers should come from the ESE for much of today, after moving from NE-ENE over the last 24 hours. by this evening it’s likely to have straightened out towards a E flow once more but expect the best of the showers to affect the north of the region until then
  6. https://www.netrafficcams.co.uk/map useful link for traffic cameras across the region nothing better than when the north sea revs up, is there?
  7. long long way from any realistic projections of snow but it's nice to know that this horrid week of rain is coming to an end .. for the rivers sake!
  8. Isolated Frost

    Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    lovely Atlantic profile on the ECM .. plenty of wintry shrs for the north too. exciting
  9. Isolated Frost

    Boxing Day Snow Event Thoughts And Reports.

    Looks like very heavy stuff at the Hawthorns- all snow too!
  10. Isolated Frost

    Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

    I couldn't analyse anything about what happens after +192 because it's just really weird... 216 is something I've not seen before at all! Mind you, at d10 we have -8c uppers touching E Scotland with shortwaves and heavy snow across Scotland and N England- but regardless, it'd be best (for the UK) to summarise the EC as this: -cool and windy today and tomorrow, some wintry shrs on high ground (mostly above 500m) -turning milder by Monday, up until around the 23rd; with cloudy and warmer conditions likely to prevail -turning colder by Wednesday, especially in Scotland and the northern areas, with wintry shrs from first the NW, turning to the N by Christmas Day itself, perhaps some snow shrs moving to lower levels at times, but mostly dry and sunny -by Boxing Day, it turns milder again from the W; and on the 27th a transient blowtorch SWly comes into play with high pressure nearby for the love of sanity I couldn't go further as NE England goes from +5c 850s at 216 to -7c 850s at 240; but I think it's definitely all to play for, and it's fair to say the ECM op will again be a milder outlier between D7 and D9... for me the points of interest are too varied to pinpoint an exact problem- shortwaves, Euro heights, Icelandic lows, Greenlandic heights etc... but I'm very wary of the 12z ECM, and that's not just because it doesn't set in the deeper potent cold that other models suggest... but the evolution after Christmas is just weird
  11. Isolated Frost

    Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

    I'll be honest here, I've been looking but not really noting much of the GFS output; it's just been too volatile. Good for fun and games, but past D7 I'm just taking it with a big pinch of salt. The EC is the model I've been looking at more often than not; and in particular the 12z. and at least at D6, there is some consistency with yesterday's (first pic today's 12z EC at D6, second pic yesterday's 12z for D7 - same date) Good general consistency, with a stronger Greenland height profile, and lesser +ve Europe pressure anomaly; good run up to D6 so far I'd say on that note- some snow shrs for NE Scotland on the day itself; and probably strong gusts and rain/sleet across eastern parts due to the shortwave
  12. Isolated Frost

    Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

    Well... Iceland's getting blasted at least. Icelandic low completely scuppers the deeper cold on the EC; a developing trend; but regardless, very encouraging to see the the WAA and building of Greenland/mid-Atlantic heights; strat effects may mean this is going to be a very slow build up to the coldest spell. Intriguing output from now till then. It may not be instant cold, but D10 is one of my favourite charts since that projected Dec 12 easterly that never happened... magic:
  13. Isolated Frost

    Far North Of England - Weather Chat

    Heaviest rain of the night; double glazing vs. nature is the battle of the day in Tyne and Wear I'm thinking; wind and rain bigger issues than any negligible snow.
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