Isolated Frost

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Isolated Frost last won the day on November 22 2012

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About Isolated Frost

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  1. long long way from any realistic projections of snow but it's nice to know that this horrid week of rain is coming to an end .. for the rivers sake!
  2. lovely Atlantic profile on the ECM .. plenty of wintry shrs for the north too. exciting
  3. Heaviest rain of the night; double glazing vs. nature is the battle of the day in Tyne and Wear I'm thinking; wind and rain bigger issues than any negligible snow.
  4. Met Office 6am snapshot seems like something very possible looking at air profiles; wouldn't be surprised if the majority of the morning consisted of this for much of the region.
  5. Ah, Consett... about 10 miles away and it's pouring it down here. Very heavy rain.
  6. Well well, tomorrow looks like it's the first point of interest for many of us by the coast. Some rain, some sleet, and some snow (in Consett of course); very touch and go and lamp posts at the ready. Wouldn't worry if there's none around tomorrow though, signals suggest that this is just hors d'oeuvres to the main course.
  7. What's very much set through the GFS output is the transferral of energy from Greenland/Canada to Siberia in FI, transcending through the stratosphere to the troposphere, at least on the 6z; and it makes the potential progression that the 6z gets more feasible. Of course it's just one run but if we get a few more days of this, then coupled with moving into D10 on the ECM; and coupled with a hopefully more stable move into phase 7 with the MJO, you can see things start to really build for some sort of feedback on the ground around the New Year. I'd agree though that with the SSW not quite appearing, it'd be more likely to see the crux of any outbreak to begin being projected by January instead of December. Still, positive signs... and it's not December 2013 strat modelling for definite!
  8. -3c low this morning and we haven't passed 3c today; I think the last 24 hours have been more wintry than 3 months of 13/14.

    1. lassie23


      Was mostly in double figures last winter

    2. Lauren


      Christmas day was 14C here!

    3. lassie23


      yes something like that here too, felt like spring!

  9. Imagine a year like this but with some real warmth in the next few years, nothing to say we can't push towards 12c.
  10. When comparing the years used on the analogue for October AO, with November AO in brackets (trivial, perhaps, but I've done it nonetheless): 1959: -0.249 (-1.411) 1962: -0.016 (-1.112) 1965: 0.394 (-1.341) 1968: -1.013 (-2.183) 1969: 0.098 (0.326) 1976: -0.804 (-0.087) 1985: 1.035 (-1.218) 2009: -1.540 (0.459) 2014: -1.134 With the AO set to trend quite low in the next few days, 68/69? Further on from this, each of the winters used by the OPI analogue have featured a sub -2 AO month: (DJF CET 4.6) 1959/1960: -0.042, -2.484, -2.212 ( -0.3) 1962/1963: -0.711, -3.311, -1.721 ( 4.4) 1965/1966: 0.163, -3.232, -1.438 ( 3.2) 1968/1969: -0.783, -2.967, -3.114 ( 3.3) 1969/1970: -1.856, -2.412, -1.325 ( 3.3) 1976/1977: -2.074, -3.767, -2.010 ( 2.9) 1985/1986: -1.948, -0.568, -2.904 ( 2.4) 2009/2010: -3.413, -2.587, -4.266 Dec average AO: -1.33 Jan average AO: -2.67 Feb average AO: -2.38 With these composite years, there's no wonder the OPI f'cast is full on, each January is sub -2, with the exception of 1985/1986, which featured one of the coldest Februaries in the last 200 years.
  11. Certainly looking cold... When using uniform scales, to try and see how each compares, this is what comes out: (using 500mb GPH from -160mb to 160mb anomaly, 850mb temp from -4c to 4c anomaly) December Slightly cooler with rather insignificant anomalies, very much in line with the reduced OPI-Dec CET correlation, though stratospheric changes in November as pointed out by Chiono and many more could be integral to seeing which way it tips (seems like either average or thereabouts, to pretty cold). January Much more marked, again various other factors will probably temper or accentuate this, but the +ve GPH much stronger to the north-west, with Scandinavia in particular much colder. Showing a -NAO pattern more conductive to longer lasting cold. February Far away, we can dream though...
  12. Here you go.
  13. Just read what the very useful OPI team response, and then the replies saying 'back to square one' and 'gutted'. As far as I can tell, the post simply confirmed a lot of what we thought, along with adding the IZE (which could also be useful for future), but the OPI-AO/CET correlation hasn't actually changed. Sub -1.5 OPIs have still provided pretty cold winters, and it's currently -2.43? Bon nuit.
  14. Utmost respect for the Met, but this is the OPI thread of course. And anyway, if we went by the contingency forecasts... where's my below average NDJ last year?