Isolated Frost

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About Isolated Frost

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    hola
  • Birthday 03/09/97

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    Sunderland
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  • Weather Preferences
    cold

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  1. long long way from any realistic projections of snow but it's nice to know that this horrid week of rain is coming to an end .. for the rivers sake!
  2. lovely Atlantic profile on the ECM .. plenty of wintry shrs for the north too. exciting
  3. Looks like very heavy stuff at the Hawthorns- all snow too!
  4. I couldn't analyse anything about what happens after +192 because it's just really weird... 216 is something I've not seen before at all! Mind you, at d10 we have -8c uppers touching E Scotland with shortwaves and heavy snow across Scotland and N England- but regardless, it'd be best (for the UK) to summarise the EC as this: -cool and windy today and tomorrow, some wintry shrs on high ground (mostly above 500m) -turning milder by Monday, up until around the 23rd; with cloudy and warmer conditions likely to prevail -turning colder by Wednesday, especially in Scotland and the northern areas, with wintry shrs from first the NW, turning to the N by Christmas Day itself, perhaps some snow shrs moving to lower levels at times, but mostly dry and sunny -by Boxing Day, it turns milder again from the W; and on the 27th a transient blowtorch SWly comes into play with high pressure nearby for the love of sanity I couldn't go further as NE England goes from +5c 850s at 216 to -7c 850s at 240; but I think it's definitely all to play for, and it's fair to say the ECM op will again be a milder outlier between D7 and D9... for me the points of interest are too varied to pinpoint an exact problem- shortwaves, Euro heights, Icelandic lows, Greenlandic heights etc... but I'm very wary of the 12z ECM, and that's not just because it doesn't set in the deeper potent cold that other models suggest... but the evolution after Christmas is just weird
  5. I'll be honest here, I've been looking but not really noting much of the GFS output; it's just been too volatile. Good for fun and games, but past D7 I'm just taking it with a big pinch of salt. The EC is the model I've been looking at more often than not; and in particular the 12z. and at least at D6, there is some consistency with yesterday's (first pic today's 12z EC at D6, second pic yesterday's 12z for D7 - same date) Good general consistency, with a stronger Greenland height profile, and lesser +ve Europe pressure anomaly; good run up to D6 so far I'd say on that note- some snow shrs for NE Scotland on the day itself; and probably strong gusts and rain/sleet across eastern parts due to the shortwave
  6. Well... Iceland's getting blasted at least. Icelandic low completely scuppers the deeper cold on the EC; a developing trend; but regardless, very encouraging to see the the WAA and building of Greenland/mid-Atlantic heights; strat effects may mean this is going to be a very slow build up to the coldest spell. Intriguing output from now till then. It may not be instant cold, but D10 is one of my favourite charts since that projected Dec 12 easterly that never happened... magic:
  7. Heaviest rain of the night; double glazing vs. nature is the battle of the day in Tyne and Wear I'm thinking; wind and rain bigger issues than any negligible snow.
  8. Met Office 6am snapshot seems like something very possible looking at air profiles; wouldn't be surprised if the majority of the morning consisted of this for much of the region.
  9. Ah, Consett... about 10 miles away and it's pouring it down here. Very heavy rain.
  10. Well well, tomorrow looks like it's the first point of interest for many of us by the coast. Some rain, some sleet, and some snow (in Consett of course); very touch and go and lamp posts at the ready. Wouldn't worry if there's none around tomorrow though, signals suggest that this is just hors d'oeuvres to the main course.
  11. What's very much set through the GFS output is the transferral of energy from Greenland/Canada to Siberia in FI, transcending through the stratosphere to the troposphere, at least on the 6z; and it makes the potential progression that the 6z gets more feasible. Of course it's just one run but if we get a few more days of this, then coupled with moving into D10 on the ECM; and coupled with a hopefully more stable move into phase 7 with the MJO, you can see things start to really build for some sort of feedback on the ground around the New Year. I'd agree though that with the SSW not quite appearing, it'd be more likely to see the crux of any outbreak to begin being projected by January instead of December. Still, positive signs... and it's not December 2013 strat modelling for definite!
  12. -3c low this morning and we haven't passed 3c today; I think the last 24 hours have been more wintry than 3 months of 13/14.

    1. lassie23

      lassie23

      Was mostly in double figures last winter

    2. Lauren

      Lauren

      Christmas day was 14C here!

    3. lassie23

      lassie23

      yes something like that here too, felt like spring!

  13. Imagine a year like this but with some real warmth in the next few years, nothing to say we can't push towards 12c.
  14. I've never changed from my first value and I'm not going to change from the 4c I guessed a week ago, week ago, but I'm imagining that I might be a touch on the high side with it.