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Isolated Frost

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Isolated Frost last won the day on November 22 2012

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  1. Snow showers in off the North Sea - Mr. Reliable for the north east. Hopefully the first of many incursions this winter. Snowing lightly in Washington, light covering again.
  2. EC 0z has the precipitation passing us by to the south but the GFS 12z and some high-def short-term models have us catching the back end of the band on Sunday evening. Couple cms likely across Teesdale and Weardale and much of the Lake District I reckon. Whoever gets any should see it last a few days, with temperatures unlikely to get past 3-4c for at least until next Thursday.
  3. First real crisp day of the autumn today. Felt lovely; hopefully a few more frosts during November to start the festivities.
  4. long long way from any realistic projections of snow but it's nice to know that this horrid week of rain is coming to an end .. for the rivers sake!
  5. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    lovely Atlantic profile on the ECM .. plenty of wintry shrs for the north too. exciting
  6. Boxing Day Snow Event Thoughts And Reports.

    Looks like very heavy stuff at the Hawthorns- all snow too!
  7. Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

    I couldn't analyse anything about what happens after +192 because it's just really weird... 216 is something I've not seen before at all! Mind you, at d10 we have -8c uppers touching E Scotland with shortwaves and heavy snow across Scotland and N England- but regardless, it'd be best (for the UK) to summarise the EC as this: -cool and windy today and tomorrow, some wintry shrs on high ground (mostly above 500m) -turning milder by Monday, up until around the 23rd; with cloudy and warmer conditions likely to prevail -turning colder by Wednesday, especially in Scotland and the northern areas, with wintry shrs from first the NW, turning to the N by Christmas Day itself, perhaps some snow shrs moving to lower levels at times, but mostly dry and sunny -by Boxing Day, it turns milder again from the W; and on the 27th a transient blowtorch SWly comes into play with high pressure nearby for the love of sanity I couldn't go further as NE England goes from +5c 850s at 216 to -7c 850s at 240; but I think it's definitely all to play for, and it's fair to say the ECM op will again be a milder outlier between D7 and D9... for me the points of interest are too varied to pinpoint an exact problem- shortwaves, Euro heights, Icelandic lows, Greenlandic heights etc... but I'm very wary of the 12z ECM, and that's not just because it doesn't set in the deeper potent cold that other models suggest... but the evolution after Christmas is just weird
  8. Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

    I'll be honest here, I've been looking but not really noting much of the GFS output; it's just been too volatile. Good for fun and games, but past D7 I'm just taking it with a big pinch of salt. The EC is the model I've been looking at more often than not; and in particular the 12z. and at least at D6, there is some consistency with yesterday's (first pic today's 12z EC at D6, second pic yesterday's 12z for D7 - same date) Good general consistency, with a stronger Greenland height profile, and lesser +ve Europe pressure anomaly; good run up to D6 so far I'd say on that note- some snow shrs for NE Scotland on the day itself; and probably strong gusts and rain/sleet across eastern parts due to the shortwave
  9. Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

    Well... Iceland's getting blasted at least. Icelandic low completely scuppers the deeper cold on the EC; a developing trend; but regardless, very encouraging to see the the WAA and building of Greenland/mid-Atlantic heights; strat effects may mean this is going to be a very slow build up to the coldest spell. Intriguing output from now till then. It may not be instant cold, but D10 is one of my favourite charts since that projected Dec 12 easterly that never happened... magic:
  10. Far North Of England - Weather Chat

    Heaviest rain of the night; double glazing vs. nature is the battle of the day in Tyne and Wear I'm thinking; wind and rain bigger issues than any negligible snow.
  11. Far North Of England - Weather Chat

    Met Office 6am snapshot seems like something very possible looking at air profiles; wouldn't be surprised if the majority of the morning consisted of this for much of the region.
  12. Far North Of England - Weather Chat

    Ah, Consett... about 10 miles away and it's pouring it down here. Very heavy rain.
  13. Far North Of England - Weather Chat

    Well well, tomorrow looks like it's the first point of interest for many of us by the coast. Some rain, some sleet, and some snow (in Consett of course); very touch and go and lamp posts at the ready. Wouldn't worry if there's none around tomorrow though, signals suggest that this is just hors d'oeuvres to the main course.