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Everything posted by knocker

  1. The GEFS mean anomalies this evening still indicating that-after initial burst of amplification at the pattern transition (previously discussed) it later subsides in the ext period. Not a problem as this still portends a much more settled period with a suggestion a bit of a N/S split
  2. Apart from the NW looks like being a dry, if chilly, weekend with light winds which will be very welcome
  3. Interesting that your not the frost to***r in here to infer that i have no interest in weather...of all types or that having an interest in synoptic meteorology is both boring and sterile and has no place here.
  4. Hopefully some heavy rainfall for south east Australia and cooler temps
  5. The clusters this morning tend to support the ext mean in lessening the amplification of the subtropical high and thus a more fluid westerly pattern
  6. The NH profile of the ext EPS also pretty much as expected so a closer look at the North atlantic. And as can be seen the subtropical; high ridging north east north of the trough adjacent to NW Africa portends a period of more settled weather
  7. This morning's fax updates has Brendan developing two centers. Winds possibly not quite as bad over the UK as once feared?
  8. The ecm also has the transition over the weekend, the only difference being it makes much more of the developing low away to the sooth west that eventually becomes the cut off low And the overview of the last half of the run
  9. The NH profile pretty much as expected with the GEFS ext mean anomaly this morning so just a closer look at the North Atlantic. And as can be seen the subtropical high quite influential over the UK which would certainly portend a more settled period
  10. We have now reached the transition previously discussed where a lobe of the tpv drops south in the western atlantic initiating downstream amplification and the disruption of the UK trough which creates a cut off low in the Mediterranean area. Hopefully this is also the start of a more settled period of weather as the subtropical high becomes more influential
  11. The North Atlantic 300mb wind field and surface analysis for midnight and current satellite image Everyone is obviously aware of Brendan tracking NNE west of Ireland and the strong winds and band of heavy rain, followed by heavy showers, expected today as the associated front(s) move east across the country so without further ado: The rain and gales clearing tonight, but the showers and strong winds, with snow to fairly low levels,,will continue in the NW Quite a bright start for most on Tuesday but a frontal wave has developed to the south west and this deepens and tracks north east bringing more rain and strong winds to much of England and Wales from late morning and there could well be some snow down to fairly low levels in the north preceding the front The rain clears most places overnight but not N. Ireland and western Scotland which are still effected by the remnants of Brendan so still some rain and quite strong winds here. But yet another low is developing away to the south west This low then tracks NNE along the west coast of Ireland and initiates some quite strong winds and, temporarily, some quite warm air, and more heavy rain as the associated cold front tracks east across the country Most of the rain clears overnight resulting in Friday being a showery and cooler day
  12. After the initial amplification the ext mean EPS settles into a pattern in the same ball park as above albeit retaining a tad more influence from the subtropical high in the vicinity of the UK If anything like this pans out it would indicate a more settled period but the concern would still the continuing flattening of the amplification
  13. An overview of the possible transition with the GEFS anomalies.this evening. These illustrate the ridge over NW North America doing some nasty things the Canadian Vortex lobe which results in some downstream amplification which subsides in the ext period, although it does established low pressure in the Mediterranean area, This could indicate a more settled period before a tad changeable again
  14. The start of this much heralded pattern change now appears to get underway with a lobe of the vortex dropping south into the western Atlantic initiating downstream amplification and the deconstruction of the UK trough creating a cut off upper low over the Mediterranean And from here we move into the next phase the detail of which awaits confirmation
  15. Well I do think some of the cold coven should be up at the Hague charged with crimes against meteorology
  16. A quick look at the jet that will be driving Brendan. Just below 200kts at Sept-Iles Quebec at midday
  17. Hopefully we should get a break from this very unsettled period come the end of the week. And yet the peeps are hoping this will be short lived and are gagging for the return of unsettled and nasty in the form of snow and ice. It makes no sense to man nor beast.
  18. The EPS has the pattern change getting underway quite early between t144- 168 with the ejection south of the Canadian vortex lobe which initiates subtropical high amplification in mid Atlantic But this then subsides and the ext mean anomaly has a familiar look to it. Ridge NW North America adjacent to the now weak Canadian lobe with the main tpv in the vicinity of Franz Joseph. A strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard but abating around the now subsiding subtropical high and diverging to some extent to the Mediterranean low pressure Portending a drier and more settled period, particularly in the south but maybe heading for a flatter zonal flow? We shall see
  19. Much of the rain clearing the south east but heavy showers over Wales
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