[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

I often thank my lucky stars that I was kicked out of this forum

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

28 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM towards the end of 

To me the ECM Ops run has one low lifting out to the north east towards the end however the momentum of low forming south of Iceland on D9/10 would clearly drop over the UK and replace the one that’s exited. 
 

 

But getting back to the original point if that did happen it would not contradict the anomaly, merely be further developments with in the umbrella of the upper trough

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

18 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Have seen a snap shot of the ECM op at the end of next week and the trough is basically further north which contradicts the NOAA anomoly output, however we can't rule it out even if there is a disagreement between that and the anomolies.    

In that case it would also contradict it's own anomaly output. If the trough stars to lift out right at the end of the run it will not be indicated on ther broader scale anomaly. Doesn't mean they are wrong

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Just a quick one from me after looking at the 500 mb charts last evening. Goodness if the 6-10 turns out to be even close it is suggesting not very summer like weather!

Look at the contour line that crosses northern England, where it originates, and a pretty low height as well. I have no charts to prove so but it must be a near lowest ever height for early July over northern England IF it turns out to be true.

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

The ecm/gfs in same ball park John

[How do climate models work?]

Time for a little clarity on this I feel

https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work/

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

I think 'retrogression' another one for the swear filter

[What's the use of 500mb-1000mb thickness when...]

On 01/11/2022 at 17:50, RainAllNight said:

I've figured this out for myself. The thickness value has a "pure" relationship to the temperature and water content of the air, whereas the geopotential height is "adulterated" by the influence of the mean sea level pressure.

https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/Miscellaneous/Heights_Thicknesses/thickness_temperature.htm#GEOPOTENTIAL

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

13 hours ago, Buzz said:

Over in the MAD thread, seemingly the GFS is the belle of the ball for today as it's showing what the cold and snow lovers want to see, on the other hand the ECM has been kicked into the gutter. I hope those folks aren't so easily swayed when voting in elections.

What is worse, imho, are comments along the lines that the ecm does not handle NH patterns being indicated at the moment very well, as a precusor to binning the latest run. Now unless the posters can supply  links to scientific evidence supporting the statement, or have done there own in depth research, then comments like this are wrong and will totally mislead punters who are relatively inexperienced in getting to grips with the output. Particularly in the current situation which, to say the least, is quite complex. Put simply they should not be ,made

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

The ecm is an absolute stonker this evening

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

I think there is an overwhelming case for 'shortwave' and 'drama' to be put in the swear filter sine die.

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

I now see things are getting completely out of hand in the mod thread with meteorology actually being dragged into the mix. Where will it all end I ask myself?

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

43 minutes ago, LRD said:

Can you see ANY way out of next week's projected slushy/sleety/snowy mess? Or is it nailed do you think?

Judging from this morning's outputs it is looking more than likely, albeit then slowly improving

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

You've thrown in the towel over prospects of the disappearance of the potential cold spell? 

More to do wiith the accompanying hype and rapidly losing the will to live.

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Over many years a long time and very respected member of this site,  who also happens to be a retired senior forecaster, has explained why he has found that the correct use, and I emphasise the word correct, of the anomaly charts is one of the better ways of getting a hang of the medium term outlook, whilst pointing out that not by any stretch of imagination is it full proof. And yet over the years, and it has arisen again recently, people with zilch meteorological training feel free to rubbish this methodology without giving any reasoned explanation. Or if they do it is usually a lot of old pony. I cannot figure out whether it is deliberate or lack of understanding.

 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

They think it's all over..........it is now

[Model discussion highlights]

23 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

In all respect,Mushy, Those Anomaly charts were showing a stormy February, when we actually got one of the most benign Februarys I can remember !

That is simply not true with 'stormy' being particularly misleading. If I remember correctly the upper flow was generally south westerly/westerly  resulting in very much a north south split with Azores high pressure more influential in the south'. Some randomly selected charts

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4809915

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

23 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

In all respect,Mushy, Those Anomaly charts were showing a stormy February, when we actually got one of the most benign Februarys I can remember !

That is simply not true with 'stormy' being particularly misleading. If I remember correctly the upper flow was generally south westerly/westerly  resulting in very much a north south split with Azores high pressure more influential in the south'. Some randomly selected charts

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

How long you been on this forum? People who want Mild even in March, when their is a chance of very cold conditions. I assure you, mild lovers here are a minority.

An objective and reasoned analysis of the model outputs is of course off the table.

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Cracking ecm this evening. Bank.

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

The ten day precipitation for NW Europe this morning

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-rain-acc?base_time=202302180000&projection=opencharts_north_west_europe&valid_time=202302280000

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

With all the hullabaloo over SSW phasing with the teleconnections and Mars in a retrograde orbit it is perhaps worth remembering that many parts of the country have had very little rainfall of late and this is likely to continue for the next couple of weeks and possible much longer.. Some reservoir levls are quite low now which could mean some tricky problems ahead  if we get a dry Spring/summer.

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

It remains a complete mystery why so many, quite correctly, say that it is very dangerous to assume the affects in the trop. of a SSW, and then go on to do so, repeatable. Although after further thought perhaps it isn't.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

35 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But, be that as it may, evidence can only be gathered after something has happened. Evidence can only be obtained after the event -- It's impossible to gather evidence of an event which hasn't happened yet. I take it you read/saw Minority Report? The late Philip K. Dick had some quite thought-provoking ideas. 

Quite so Pete and over many years the evidence confirms that as a general rule of thumb after five days the model output becomes less reliable. Which is why you rarely see day ten charts posted in here 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

The BFTE should have been put in the swear filter a while ago as the continuing thought of it is getting dangerously close to tipping those of a cold peruasion over the edge..........................they have been teetering for a while.

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Discussion is fine as long it does not morph into incessant repetition............ oh hang on