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Everything posted by knocker

  1. I'm afraid that's way above my pay grade but the ecm is giving a weekend total of around 3" but you best keep an eye on METO updates
  2. I'm not sure that is correct. As far as I can see that is the first low which deepens in mid Atlantic before Dennis arrives south of it and then undergoes explosive cyclogenisis as the upper troughs merge This the surface sequence
  3. More like Sat midday as Exeter have it down to 926mb
  4. There is still a lot of uncertainty vis the movements of the low as it starts to fill. and of course specific rainfall intensities but for what it's worth the ecm this morning
  5. This morning Dennis is still forecast to become an exceptionally deep Atlantic cyclone which fortunately curves and tracks north to be south of Iceland 929mb by midday Saturday. Even so it will bring gale force winds over the UK over the weekend and the associated frontal systems heavy rain which, as Jo points out above, is the last thing that is needed in many areas at the moment. And an eye has to kept on it's further movements once it starts to fill as it could bring some very strong winds to Scotland as it drifts east
  6. According to this evening's ecm Dennis enters the fray at t72 around the SW quadrant of the main Atlantic trough and over the next 24 hours tracks ENE and undergoes very rapid cyclogenisis to be 926mb south of Iceland by midday Saturday with the associated frontal system bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the UK and Ireland
  7. Of course further complications could arise if things panned as per this evening's gfs as the energy makes some inroads to the east and the low, initially stalls, and then tracks east also as it fills slowly
  8. I have no idea what is behind Exeter's thinking, way above my pay grade, but from where I'm sitting it looks very much down to the different evolution and structure of Dennis as against Ciara The latter formed and tracked quickly across the Atlantic in about 36 hours, deepening rapidly as it went which made forecasting of the impacts extremely tricky far in advance. Dennis on the other hand, although also deepening quickly, is slower to move and also curves more north east and merges with the upper trough in situ, courtesy of strong ridging from the subtropical high and the re curving jet which helps to pin down the outcome a tad easier.and earlier(from where I'm sitting of course). Still liable to adjustment
  9. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320719317823?via%3Dihub ttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320719317823?via%3Dihub Press release https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-02/uoh-swh020720.php
  10. Yes I suppose one could say that the latter led to the former but perhaps they could have handled the conditions a bit better. But that's really being over critical
  11. Quite agree Pete and you could have added questioning the integrity of professional forecasters of many years experience
  12. The ext mean anomalies continue ti indicate a re-alignment of the tpv entailing a retrogression of the Atlantic trough. But no cross model agreement on the detail and thus some differences concerning the amount of influence from the resurging of the subtropical high will have over the UK
  13. And in the baroclinic environment of the North atlantic at the moment......................................(just to be noted)
  14. This evening's gfs is tracking the center further north than this morning's fax update and appears to have the area of strongest gusts south of the movement of the cold front
  15. This evening's gfs is tracking the center further north than this morning's fax update and appears to have the area of strongest gusts south of the movement of the cold front
  16. The ecm has another low tracking east across the Atlantic during the middle/end of next week whilst further cyclogenisis takes place in the west
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