knocker

Over the last two or three days the ecm has indicated, in the ext period, a greater keeness than the gfs to suppress amplification in the Atlantic and thus a more zonal upper flow and it continues this theme this morning. By way of introduction it tracks a low north of Scotland late Weds/through Thursday with the associated fronts tracking south east down the country And following that it realigns the tpv over the Arctic, the gfs not so keen, resulting in this NH comparison

This evening the ecm has the tpv aligned further east than the gfs and thus a flatter westerly flow across the Atlantic, albeit both indicating strong +ve anomalies over the eastern half of the latter and a continuation of generally dry and settled conditions. But perhaps the ecm more prone to the odd incursion from the NW

I am not for one moment claiming superiot knowledge ( I have been too readily accused of that in the past) but you cannot have lows tracking in the opposite direction as a strong jet. Merely trying to help

I don't think it does. They are separate little waves forming in the baroclinic zone along the northern edge of the high pressure

Quite an active Atlantic with wave breaking that gives further impetus to the Azores ridge

satellite image from METOP-B overhead at 2022/01/20 11:18 UTC

Still some showers down the east coast today in the brisk northerly but but this easing later as high pressure edges west. After a widespread early frost perhaps a tad more cloud in the west tomorrow but a tad milder, albeit breezier in the north with the odd shower And essentially this is the scenario over thev weekend

Likely, with any amplification subsiding into a flatter westerly flow across the Atlantic

Strat/Trop connecting?

Broken cloud Sc/Cu and a tad breezy

Some very dry air above the cloud last night

Nothing constructive to add regarding the medium term anomalies this evening so just a glance at how the ridge alignment/cut off upper low is affecting the European surface temp distribution

Yes the rainfall stats are quite interesting http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html

Sc clearing from the NW satellite image from METOP-C overhead at 2022/01/19 10:51 UTC

Perhaps worth considering a change of title for the main MOD thread from 'hunt for cold' to 'hunt for chionophiles'.

Stratus, slight rain and little wind

In the ext period the mean anomalies still not agreeing on the alignment of the tpv and thus the amplification. if any, of the subtropical high in mid Atlantic. But as an overview a relaxing of any amplification with a strong westerly upper flow running towards low pressure in south east Europe. Temps around average

Some patchy rain associated with a cold frront across the north at the momemt and this will track south through the day followed by cooler air with snow showers over Scotland. And then this evening and overnight another cold front tracks south and in its wake snow showers down to quite low levels in the north and showers also along the eastern fringes in the now brisk northerly, some possibly of sleet snow. Once the font clears Thursday a sunny but cold day after a widespead frost with temps below average and then through the rest of the week and the beginning of next high pressure again becoming influential and thus the return of frosty/foggy mornings, particularly over England/Wales, with the usual caverats regarding the northern periphery of the HP

The alignment of the tpv with one lobe over the eastern Arctic does facilitate ridging in western Russia and possible linkage to the Azores HP north of the cut off upper low over the Eastern Mediterranean. Well-illustrated by this evening’s ecm. The correct pattern alignment could well advect colder air into southern/central Europe. But the clusters do not support the linkage scenario

Extending the ridge north east above the cut off upper low can produce some very cold temps in southern/central Europe

A layer of Sc thus no frost and little wind

Upstream the axis of the tpv has shifted a tad east, courtesy of the west North American ridge amplifying NE, but with no apparent impact downstream where the high pressure continues to hold sway.

Still very amplified upstream with the west North American ridge/tpv lobe trough and a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard. But some variation downstream, albeit the high pressure remaining in charge, with the ecm perhaps indicating some linkage to the Urals ridge. Fore by all of that still looking very dry over western Europe with any rainfall concentrated in the north

Life just doesn't seem the same without the daily hyperventilating in the MOD thread.............but I expect I will get used to it over the next couple of months.

Probably better illustrated by the 0900 Larkhill sounding with the radiation inversion under the subsiding air column of the high pressure. But of course this is not taking into account the Tg temp