knocker

April 12

Article Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has a major impact on climate, not just in the northern Atlantic but globally. Paleoclimatic data show it has been unstable in the past, leading to some of the most dramatic and abrupt climate shifts known. These instabilities are due to two different types of tipping points, one linked to amplifying feedbacks in the large-scale salt transport and the other in the convective mixing that drives the flow. These tipping points present a major risk of abrupt ocean circulation and climate shifts as we push our planet further out of the stable Holocene climate into uncharted waters.

https://tos.org/oceanography/article/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point

March 28

A good example of evaporative cooling over Devon yesterday

March 13

The current warming at 10mb illustrated on the 00 at Orland in Norway

March 12

I think serious consideration should be given to the possible temporary closure of the mod. thread as a humane gesture to end the suffering.

March 2

Addicks Fan 1981 Signals do not lead the models and to say this rather makes a mockery of 70 odd years of model development. The sun drives the models via Atmospheric/ Oceanic interactions using mathematical and physical equations and the teleconnections are part of this complex evolution. And of course forecasting. This is of course a very short and simplistic explanation.

February 29

I notice that over in the mod. thread a relative newcomer to the thread has made the rhetorical comment , "Seriously how can any model promoting cold weather now be a good thing". There is of course no intelligent answer to this.

February 27

Met4Cast I wasn't aware that I was suggesting that knowledge in itself is a bad thing. What I was suggesting is that posting comments on teleconnections, Stratosphere/Troposphere interactions and synoptic meteorology all in the model discussion thread, is in my humble opinion operation overload and asking a lot from many punters, including myself.. And there really is no need for the separate threads in that case. I will leave it there as I realise my opinion is not welcome in here

February 27

Why should this thread become even more filled with teleconnections and Stratosphere talk? There are separates threads for those subjects. It is almost as if synoptic meteorology, and all the interesting complexities of that, is a no go area. Without this being addressed adequately I am not sure how punters relatively new to interpretating models can possible get to grips with it.

February 22

I am very saddened to note the the air of despair and desperation that has crept into the Mod thread over the last few days.

February 19

Climate Change would appear to be hastening the redundancy of the chasing cold thread............it just doesn't bear thinking about

February 19

Flub136 I do not think this a true representation of the warming

An important character of sudden warming is its downward propagation from 45 km into the lower stratosphere. This feature is not zonal in character, but has nonzonal structure, with a planetary wave tilting westward with height. In the middle latitudes, warming in the stratosphere (40 km) is followed by cooling in the mesosphere (65 km). Simultaneously, the opposite occurs in low latitudes, with stratospheric cooling and mesospheric warming, but the magnitude of the changes in the lower latitudes is one order less compared to that noted in higher latitudes

February 18

Neilsouth There is a problem with pinning down the detail at this range as it the start of pattern change. All one can say at the moment is it is likely to be cool and breezy (depending on where the dig is) and with a wave on the front crossing the south late on the 24th according to the gfs. Not very helpful I'm afraid

February 14

Weatherman_93 That's a bit like expecting a vegetarian to salivate over a fillet steak

February 12

Not that the my opinion is worth diddly squat in here but the development of yet another Nor'easter and it's subsequent track is having ramifications downstream regarding HP amplification.

February 12

A touch of Nat this morning

February 10

I've just noticed that there is new 'Post Mortem' thread. and I came quite faint for a moment assuming it was the last rites of the mod thread

February 8

I have to say there is an awful whiff of desperation in the air.............time to break out the Prozac

February 5

Good to see that the mid Feb. amplification eases appreciably by the beginning of March.

February 4

johncam Well I have no idea on the altitude variations but suffice it to say the snow is along the leading edge of the front so obviously dependant on the position/orientation of it

February 4

Not for the first time, and I'm sure it wont be the last, but I sometime wonder what the punters in here want

February 2

RJBingham Totally irrelevant it it's not following the party line.

February 2

I see the UKMO has gone from favourite son to tosspot in 24 hours.

January 29

Interesting to note that we are only on page 30 in the mod thread after a week. During periods of mass hysteria this landmark would be reached whilst making a cup of coffee. I'm taking this, perhaps wrongly, that this is a signal that winter is over. Oh my..................................

January 28

@SLEETY

I can't believe winters over...........I'm totally gutted

January 26

It is good to see the quality of the posts in the chasing cold thread is rising exponentially as noted with a recent offering of "corker inbound"

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