Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?

knocker

Members
  • Content Count

    41,556
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by knocker


  1. There is a lot going on at the moment, with currently two different airmasses effecting the UK, so for a change the North Atlantic 850mb temp anomaly and surface analysis

    gfs-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-0902400.thumb.png.442c16f44e902ed98bf615927c774084.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.bf3382695c010ae15b7c4fd856860976.gif

    There is a lot of shower activity over England and Wales at the moment, particularly in the south east where it is frequent, heavy and thundery. This will move into the North Sea by around midday as the shallow unstable low does likewise but showers in it's wake may pep up for a time, courtesy of a front tracking behind. And they will also pep up over N. Ireland and western Scotland courtesy of a low and associated fronts at the base of the upper trough

    gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0945600.thumb.png.0194fdb3997727a3a61dcaf069312ae9.pngPPVE89.thumb.gif.51b8d34f5aa187c79edaea42278ad7b9.gif1799588187_maxwed.thumb.png.8662c35b1eb6632bc5680bbd258fe9c3.png

    meanreflec_d02_12.thumb.png.f8418adee491a378fdfe1ff321c84598.pngmeanreflec_d02_15.thumb.png.f8b2ba0b37a36ec75cd728a31f5438be.pngmeanreflec_d02_18.thumb.png.d8afc336f4968f91a282e73a23a0558f.pngmeanreflec_d02_21.thumb.png.de9e09ef6ed51934f96c55c6df42c0e6.pngmeanreflec_d02_24.thumb.png.3b4081f73184a8fada45abdff52a92c6.png

    The shower activity will tend to be confined to the NW/W regions this evening and overnight as the occlusion assosiated with the aforementioned low tracks south east down the country

    PPVG89.thumb.gif.d16de9692af078c72d4d4b45a559d536.gifprecip_d02_36.thumb.png.83f5b4b78a3e734c477823bd6832233a.png

    The occlusion continues it's journey through Thursday so a day of sunshine and showers, and these may well be frequent and heavy, with thunder in the mix in the north west as another occlusion runs around in the circulation. Quite a breezy day as well

    PPVI89.thumb.gif.bc506a90582ab22b83780ca2d1a2174b.gif2030813430_maxth.thumb.png.db87cd9afec005ce631c78b7bc8f95eb.pngprecip_d02_39.thumb.png.44298b78338118c6f72bba0343e12987.pngprecip_d02_42.thumb.png.9189eba9804903c2d616e9c624091056.pngprecip_d02_45.thumb.png.37db48918ac09030207d3acc76ab8cb0.pngprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.f6fa9e9820a1e330cdd6cdbf95b0c7dc.png

    But over Thursday night and through Friday changes are afoot with the upper trough being shunted north and as a new upper low approaches from the south west, high pressure builds from the south. Ergo a much quieter day on Friday with rain confined to N. Ireland and Scotland.

    gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1118400.thumb.png.ba3b12a65a3c13ecac4a2c07b8668950.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.ad95b9aba043f1674c2a65e2d137110e.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.230241b44c0fa160b014d91f2124cec8.gif

    1358279898_rainfr.thumb.png.ee4e00178c25b661db3147352d015c6c.png699881810_maxfr.thumb.png.4b448b5fa6c6aaa4b4a95603ce4a1921.png

    The pattern slowly evolves through Saturday as the upper low to the south west edges closer and the high cell drifts east. A few showers around, particularly in the north

    gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1204800.thumb.png.e8a9c52dc0cfe90793850faab36071b8.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.d551944b501f4eae682d6a6703e80570.gif

    1315282928_rainsat.thumb.png.8f7e20a1b6f5b19c049581eb5790d686.png2073446993_maxsat.thumb.png.70ec744d6aff3b92467f37583dd6bbd5.png

    And the slow evolution continues on Sunday with most places in the north and east staying dry and sunny and warming up a tad whilst the frontal rain associated with the low to the south west will gradually encroach south western regions.

    gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1291200.thumb.png.4bba3fc804607bfa8c020a5d5123a51b.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.9325bdf37c19ad0c31a71fe221eb4f33.gif

    959984291_rainsun.thumb.png.42f1265bc4663a399922f858a1cd04b8.png1984233174_maxsun.thumb.png.309a93d2c6ecd95d216fa9d0485b14b1.png


  2. 3 hours ago, Alderc said:

    ..

    Maybe its to do with the moisture it’s modelling wide area of DPs 25-27c in France, with all that moisture there’d be huge amount of evaporation taking place at the surface? 

    The surface > 850mb lapse rate would be less than the DALR so the extrapolation of the temp profile, and anything else that could effect it,  would be guess work


  3. 48 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    It's not implausible at all, but by the same token I'm not saying it's likely.

    Greenland heights are there at day 7, the jet has nowhere to go but under the block, hence we see LP pushed across the Atlantic towards the UK. Interaction of the air masses seems to give the jet enough 'oomph' to get the troughing across us days 8 & 9, which leaves us open to the Arctic.

    And I would read this another way. The high cell in the north west Atlantic effectively blocks off the Atlantic and the energy flows are mainly around north Greenland which facilitates the dropping of the colder air south from the TPV to our trough in situ which is my it is very quick. Just a thought but in any case it's al academic

    ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-1636800.thumb.png.95c5c631f0de0ca154affd37c907891c.png

    But not the EPS

    index.thumb.png.3fb93f3c9e2d1b0244bef11da78f5800.png


  4. The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

    gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-0816000.thumb.png.9996a9ac9429f9cc12128abc851bf2e1.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.33e2858a2b64be7fdcb05ebd3718659b.gif

    There are still bits and pieces of showery rain across north Wales and the north of England courtesy of the fading cold front and a more concentrated rain band associated with the occlusion over north west Scotland as today gets underway. But all this is about to change as the first bout of showery activity associated with the upper trough to the south west which is pulling warmer air into the fringes of the UK, starts to effect south west coastal regions by 0800. These showers will spread north east during the day and will be heavy at times with the heavier bursts roughly in an area Dorset to Norfolk, Perhaps some thunder in the mix. Further north the band of rain will turn to frequent showers across N. Ireland and Scotland

    PPVE89.thumb.gif.48519dc26dd43a6e313ecb5c8ba5df68.gifgfs-eur-t850_anom_stream-0880800.thumb.png.1f4ee9747daed6c05291d9490f72506a.png979305338_maxtues.thumb.png.0469d9982893a0ad6bd7d35f7b505f91.png

    precip_d02_14.thumb.png.d4aa76b9d593a443b5e56ea07a5aa5dc.pngprecip_d02_19.thumb.png.2529449366db7fa99640be1ced8a0144.pngprecip_d02_23.thumb.png.b3e6b77c5cf819754139e69489e4f252.png

    Overnight a more intense area of a showery activity will track north east from France as the wave gets more organized. The area most effected will be a broad corridor Dorset > south east Midlands > East Anglia and here there could be storms with. hail, lightening and some quite intense downpours. Still some showery activity in the north west

    PPVG89.thumb.gif.8a0b5c7d74c17fceb5f982139cd49819.gif590551465_light03.thumb.png.b407e42ccf9857a948d1f6d99e86b45a.pngprecip_d02_28.thumb.png.e1ae64c5a51b665740c6361bc7575ece.pngprecip_d02_30.thumb.png.cb9dc494139c2030d9972f14155509db.pngprecip_d02_33.thumb.png.5d72ffb1917618d8118deb7039b797c3.pngprecip_d02_37.thumb.png.9a6c16cca2f11d7f3c082d1474729380.png

    The wave continues to track north east to be centred north of Kings Lynn by midday Wednesday and the shower and storm activity will do like wise, finally clearing into the North Sea by 1400. Still frequent showers in the over N. Ireland and Scotland courtesy of the weakening occlusion

    PPVI89.thumb.gif.4e739f590a8cf71ca77795cd9a34b963.gif1286964435_light10.thumb.png.c447a41e171425d87b51c50580cb0911.png1487215257_maxwed.thumb.png.0727ab0dd8e2a003a9e20dcf24aceefd.png

    precip_d02_39.thumb.png.a0144e87f0ae4842c662188f61ba3429.pngprecip_d02_42.thumb.png.0947b3e700ec06c71baf4a25ee9be739.pngprecip_d02_46.thumb.png.53f3096579de555dc74b738a6177c477.png

    By Thursday our old upper low is back in play and the are some occlusions tracking south east in the circulation so a very showery day, particularly in the north where they could well be quite heavy and blustery

    gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1042800.thumb.png.277782bdc3c8fb9a2e371cd7585e5fd8.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.79608be3b5594fdf98f00d712d672bed.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.59c8cdfc322e9f28ff803eac771ae2a6.gif

    2140680478_rainth.thumb.png.f5befe8c316cd0136f8ff43159298264.png627954875_maxth.thumb.png.124359067b703735ad505cdfb0d70f90.png

    An improving scenario over Friday and Saturday as the upper low retreats north and a weak ridge builds over the UK. Thus shower activity will diminish and be confined to the north whilst generally it will be quite sunny if not blazing hot. But note the activity to the west as another upper low creeps closer

    gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1129200.thumb.png.c899adff632a7f7153b1efae3eecf3c3.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1215600.thumb.png.c766b52478305dfa2c4538c9d93d372c.png

    PPVM89.thumb.gif.dee646b98b9aec3e30493758748f8368.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.08a5b296b8b3e509c2c5a86eff9bc90c.gif

    1647187713_maxfr.thumb.png.1eba19d6934efb2a6cefe874458aaa9f.png191270847_maxsat.thumb.png.0c845d0c9013b6dd2e10d1a112f19722.png


  5. 15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Exactly - a one day clipper of 850s of 15-20c won't instantly just equate to a 35-40c day, it isn't that simple. When you factor in that it's been soaking wet in June, that will probably chip a degree or two off. For the UK to breach 40c i'm certain we'd need a 2003 style run-up again with a dry spring, and a long stretch of heat before the peak maximum. It won't just come as a one day special. Plus the charts shown on the 6z look very unstable.

    A sample sounding for the south east at that time. Colder air being advected in the boundary layer plus some cloud

    sounding.thumb.png.3b0daae58fdc8f22b8141569338b6d3e.png

×
×
  • Create New...