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knocker

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Posts posted by knocker


  1. 11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes, I remember Ian Fergusson stopped posting once because of people wanting 'That ECM' to verify becaue it would almost certainly lead to losses of life, yet he is a keen Thunderstorm chaser. If people followed warnings and advice etc like not walking on frozen lakes etc, there would be less deaths from cold and snow than other types of severe weather, surely any qualified meteorologist first got interested in weather because of interesting weather, not because of wall to wall sunshine an 22c Max temps.

    But we are not talking about qualified meteorologists ( I assume that was your morning joke) but a bunch of chinophiles, possibly with a few pagophiles thrown in, let loose on an unsuspecting public 8)


  2. You are deliberately missing my original point.  Which was that it seems extremely odd to want bad weather of any description, I only highlighted cold and snow because that is very pertinent to this forum, that adversely effects people and wildlife. I assume nobody would go as far as wishing floods on people although I have seen comments hoping the track of an intense low would change so as not to miss the UK


  3. The ext EPS this morning paying a certain amount of lip service to the GEFS with the vortex drifting over northern Russia with the ridge into eastern Greenland. Thus the strong westerly upper flow beneath the extension of the vortex quickly diverges south of Greenland with one arm continuing on to the trough south of the UK where it again diverges courtesy of the European ridge  Tricky surface analysis with temps around average

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4985600.thumb.png.6b163bc7539c22f418f20ee9892610ef.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-4985600.thumb.png.65a7108c9520cbda1357abc864642441.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4985600.thumb.png.1f71fd830a1d7356c6fdca130bc5fbf7.png


  4. Scientists head to Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier

    Nearly 100 scientists and support staff depart this week (13 November 2019) for the most ambitious mission to date for Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica. In the second year of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC), researchers from the United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK) will work in one of the most remote and inhospitable areas on Earth. It’s a five-year quest to understand the glacier and surrounding ocean system and its future contribution to global sea level.

    Thwaites Glacier, covering 192,000 square kilometers (74,000 square miles)—an area the size of Great Britain—is particularly susceptible to climate and ocean changes. Over the past 30 years, the amount of ice flowing out of the region has nearly doubled. Computer models show that over the next several decades, the glacier may lose ice even more rapidly, as ice retreat progresses. Already, ice draining from Thwaites into the Amundsen Sea accounts for about four percent of global sea level rise. A collapse of the glacier would lead to a significant increase in sea levels of around 65cm (25 inches) over the coming centuries.

    https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/scientists-head-to-antarcticas-thwaites-glacier/


  5. This morning the GEFS ext anomaly still has the Vortex lobe dominating the Arctic with an extension of the Euro ridge edging into eastern Greenland, an area that has had some additional input from amplification of the Atlantic subtropical high during the evolution So still a strong westerly upper flow running south of an extension of the vortex and diverging in mid Atlantic with one arm continuing to track to the trough south of the UK

    gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4985600.thumb.png.c2a9b25ba53711826ea8eb430475bf84.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-4985600.thumb.png.f7e25a4eddd52efa74187b1377500a50.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4985600.thumb.png.01e5372ab818a027b10e72a6c01a5694.png


  6. A glance at the EC weeklies update for the 1 December > 21st

    First week upstream low pressure over the Aleutians, ridge western NA with vortex lobe northern Canada, Strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard under some ridging into south east Greenland, abating a tad in the east.  Temp above average in Europe

    Second week more development of the vortex lobe/trough northern Canada and low pressure over Greenland resulting in  a stronger flow across the Atlantic.Temps still above average apart from Norway

    This theme is developed further in week three, albeit still a suggestion of ridging into south east Greenland Temps still above average in Europe apart from Norway

    ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-5763200.thumb.png.aa9b3f326d52ac22218988efa3a908e9.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-6368000.thumb.png.f1a3741bbe6d9c04414322bf6908a258.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-6886400.thumb.png.c84e6b259efd5d0880e92f6439997f83.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-5763200.thumb.png.2bcc910484075a6740b2dfb7ae40159f.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-6368000.thumb.png.a5b8b4dea93c8d0b942e60625e59e5a8.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-6886400.thumb.png.9712d00256029e9f4579f9b526f7c16f.png


  7. 39 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Similar to this morning the Ext EPS does not make as much of ridging branching south into eastern Greenland which means the vortex extension across northern Canada and associated trough are a tad more influential, Thus the upper flow across the Atlantic does not appreciably diverge. albeit abating somewhat over the UK  This would portend changeable but warming up from current conditions Given that there are some significant differences this still has to be resolved

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4942400.thumb.png.e583ea10243f25b10dbd922b0e94af19.png

     

     

    NOAA leaning towards the EPS

    814day_03.thumb.gif.19fe974ea88a003f5a4b39c0a4760040.gif


  8. Similar to this morning the Ext EPS does not make as much of ridging branching south into eastern Greenland which means the vortex extension across northern Canada and associated trough are a tad more influential, Thus the upper flow across the Atlantic does not appreciably diverge. albeit abating somewhat over the UK  This would portend changeable but warming up from current conditions Given that there are some significant differences this still has to be resolved

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4942400.thumb.png.e583ea10243f25b10dbd922b0e94af19.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-4942400.thumb.png.fd32ab6fc1eefff8beaf35e052caacfa.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4942400.thumb.png.f8dd26feb18671f5b8d13d2c53878a79.png

    But Sidney is sniffing the coffee

    sid.thumb.JPG.7b842c80f47269fc30f3a367757b1608.JPG


  9. The ext GEFS has the Aleutian/Arctic vortex lobe continuing to gain ground and thus has the European ridge pressured south into eastern Greenland, But there is an extension of the vortex south of this with an energy conduit running around the west N. American ridge to link with the main westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard All of this results in the latter diverging in mid Atlantic with one arm continuing on to the trough south of the UK

    Once again a tricky looking surface analysis with systems stalling against the block Lets see if NOAA and the EPS agree

    gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4942400.thumb.png.9fb1bf5108953092e72df2cadd969f42.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-4964000.thumb.png.a18eeeb86e19311e0f676fb9212440b2.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4899200.thumb.png.e998dd3316d892d169f174391c910533.png

    gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_speed-4899200.thumb.png.25460fee7c8a187b682c45597f48420c.png


  10. As people are too well aware today is a totally miserable and cold day for many, particularly if you under the incessant rain

    14.thumb.gif.eba2ce49f25dd0ba9485ba0c3b881f38.gif

    And this area will continue to pivot through the rest of the afternoon and tonight but it will start to fragment by the latter part of the evening. But, in the now quite brisk north easterly wind, frequent heavy showers will ingress north easterly coastal regions and then in the early hours. courtesy of a wave developing on the front to the south east more persistent and heavy rain will track into the south east from around 0300. Quite a marked ground temp contrast so frost limited to the north by morning

    PPVA89.thumb.gif.303baf60c7d9f362e2083e80de3ec5e2.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.c1e63a50329d425bdee7e6e2594458e9.gifsfctemp_d02_24.thumb.png.4ceff8fa216a57ee54700e2dfe3fe111.png

    meanreflec_d02_10.thumb.png.d7ce2812fe9cd7bce9173d6cf2974fa9.pngmeanreflec_d02_13.thumb.png.4149c5a922ed571069da7cb15cd95042.pngmeanreflec_d02_17.thumb.png.21d2a5e62cc2f157a6315fcd8ea5cf1d.pngmeanreflec_d02_21.thumb.png.4fbd9804eb0d9367ae63f90f98181200.pngmeanreflec_d02_24.thumb.png.b393ef0820471fd32bd9e3b5582ff6a0.pngsfcgust_d02_21.thumb.png.b2a5439ea6e913c1301a3723099fa477.png

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