Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer in Forecast models, atmosphere, stratosphere & global drivers Posted 13 minutes ago · Edited 11 minutes ago by knocker There is a lot going on at the moment, with currently two different airmasses effecting the UK, so for a change the North Atlantic 850mb temp anomaly and surface analysis There is a lot of shower activity over England and Wales at the moment, particularly in the south east where it is frequent, heavy and thundery. This will move into the North Sea by around midday as the shallow unstable low does likewise but showers in it's wake may pep up for a time, courtesy of a front tracking behind. And they will also pep up over N. Ireland and western Scotland courtesy of a low and associated fronts at the base of the upper trough The shower activity will tend to be confined to the NW/W regions this evening and overnight as the occlusion assosiated with the aforementioned low tracks south east down the country The occlusion continues it's journey through Thursday so a day of sunshine and showers, and these may well be frequent and heavy, with thunder in the mix in the north west as another occlusion runs around in the circulation. Quite a breezy day as well But over Thursday night and through Friday changes are afoot with the upper trough being shunted north and as a new upper low approaches from the south west, high pressure builds from the south. Ergo a much quieter day on Friday with rain confined to N. Ireland and Scotland. The pattern slowly evolves through Saturday as the upper low to the south west edges closer and the high cell drifts east. A few showers around, particularly in the north And the slow evolution continues on Sunday with most places in the north and east staying dry and sunny and warming up a tad whilst the frontal rain associated with the low to the south west will gradually encroach south western regions.