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knocker

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Posts posted by knocker


  1. The 5-10 mean anomalies merely confirm the indications of the det runs that the tpv lobe close to Iceland, aided and abetted by the 'feeder' from the subtropical jet, create an active cyclogenisis zone in the Atlantic that will imprint on the UK during this period. During the ext period the structure and orientation of the vortex changes resulting in the regression of the Atlantic trough which facilitates some amplification of the subtropical high in the east. There is no hard and fast agreement here at the moment but it does portend a more settled period, albeit trending towards a N/S split

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0472000.thumb.png.c364b006c9699c54284eb44e9ede562a.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0817600.thumb.png.d754d8ac205d76cdb86a4d4a1fb47cec.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0904000.thumb.png.8c33b46756c8bfe03382ce30d1570e8c.png

    gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0472000.thumb.png.da41978827c4ad7f4ba9cf08c3d89096.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0817600.thumb.png.701dc271d1d49e8a944c824c020f0c93.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0817600.thumb.png.95f3b2cc4f2aafa801b3cfd9f3ce09a3.png

    Latest NAO, AO

    ecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-ao-box-9478400.thumb.png.f34c320430d037d2939eb42da7f37798.pngecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-nao-box-9478400.thumb.png.20e6982b81d799b4323cee66edfee332.png


  2. 12 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

    Its true the young generation are nesher than ever,I heard something on the bbc this morning slightly off topic,one of the major stores I`ve never heard of is closing down,and one young girl said I`d rather shop online because this weather is too cold to go out unbeilevable.

    The older generation yes they certainly do feel the cold 80 years old and over

    -1.2c last night but we get those sort of temps in april,and they say there cold with no wind.

    I can confirm that this applies two or three years younger than that. But the one advantage of advancing years, particularly in here, is that your bu*****t antennan gets honed to such perfection as to pick up the slightest nuance


  3. A quick glance at the EC weeklies update for the last two weeks of February

    14 > 21

    Salient points

    Aleutian ridge adjacent to the tpv northern Canada with associated trough NW Atlantic

    Quite a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard which abates somewhat in the east as the the subtropical high retains some influence

    Indicating changeable but with a N/S bias and nothing too drastic

    ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-2243200.thumb.png.e38202c67c296411cdf33a369f5f96a9.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-2243200.thumb.png.8e4c5cd70589a52a585ea6f2a13b41a8.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-2243200.thumb.png.20edbf40195fb50c3d72c810f6efb060.png

    21 > 29

    The key difference here is the re-orientation of the tpv and the regression of the Atlantic trough that facilitates further influence from the subtropical high in the vicinity of the UK, thus portending a more settled spell of weather

    ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-2934400.thumb.png.d02568e839b2b0af1e2730a9999650ae.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-2934400.thumb.png.6cd806d4b5c7403b558988bcc4dbe84d.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-2934400.thumb.png.23a59ff3444b698312704976ab008ec5.png

     

     


  4. The first deepening wave in mid Atlantic is tracking north east and merging with the lobe of the tpv that has dropped down to the tip of Greenland by midday Saturday . The associated cold front will bring some rain and strong winds to the north

    PPVO89.thumb.gif.d4e604069ababe9817d73cf8bdad5307.gifgfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-9953600.thumb.png.e7db23ac4416f01cf6c8581a019647c2.png

    But it's the next one away to the south west, which apparently hitches a ride on the subtropical jet before the two energy supplies merge.which we need to keep an eye on as it tracks north east and deepens rapidly. This could produce some very strong winds and very inclement weather as the associated front tracks southeast down the country. But it's far too early to assume the worst case scenario as the detail is certainly subject to change

    gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-0040000.thumb.png.7428b2d46471c910f4a42b82efa83a55.png132.thumb.png.b0a107a5ae8e61cb75c22907c45ea906.png144.thumb.png.6aaf56d14211a620ade53def8fe77cb6.png156.thumb.png.f1fff3248a369bbf812c1d650dd54613.png


  5. The gfs has the first frontal wave tracking north east, deepening, and merging with the tpv lobe by midday Saturday with the associated front bringing rain (snow on the mountains) in the north accompanied by strong winds

    gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9953600.thumb.png.7df781ca9f2638656366f2fd1c9328ab.png120.thumb.png.c098511ee99b169aafd6b99a5c5ec1b6.png

    From this point the whole complex upper trough re-orientates and lows form along the very active cold front which will bring some quite wintry and windy weather, particularly in to the north of the UK if it transpires like this

    gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-0083200.thumb.png.54d531d2b54d2f766b7137f9dbc065f5.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-0083200.thumb.png.552acf7c9314d17df71a7945a17762ca.png

    156.thumb.png.addd8202e261365bb47c7c7c0d4654f3.png180.thumb.png.342eb3b195addf6d7b47518a724a2c90.png

    gfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c-0148000.thumb.png.86cc1fb4c9995358e6297266d7f36bc0.png

     


  6. 12 minutes ago, legritter said:

    Hi gang ,just out of interest i have recently read an article about the 62 /63 winter ,i was a young lad of 11 when this historic winter started ,as you all know prior to Dec 26th  1962 ,the weather had been very mixed but there had been snow falls and cold temperatures .A trough moved south on the 26th and the rest is history . But i have only recently read that there was a SSW Towards the end of January which kept the winter going with high pressure throughout feb and in to march .my question is ,with your knowledge does any posters know of any written documents or any info as to what kickstarted the onset of this Winter around the Christmas period. Since this winter of 62 /63 science ofuper air ,stratosphere etc as become  very advanced , and we know that a  SSW is no guarantee of cold heaven here in the uk .wonder if the winter of 46 /47 was the result of an SSW IN LATE or mid January,  but there again the foundations were there at short periods before January 20th .I did have all these answers in my 400 and odd magazines etc of the Royal meteorological society, but since my late wife passed on 2 yrs ago i had a good clear out , finished with my fellowship of the R msc and now addicted to net weather ,free of course and some great posters .i can now twitch the curtains at night looking for snow when its about ,without being told off ,how i miss being told off .cheers gang  if you were all here i would cook up some sausages, get the BAPS OUT, plus brown sauce, keep up the good work ,very informative, and may winter bring us what we Crave for.  Cheers .

    Tropical origin of the severe European winter of 1962/1963

    https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2346


  7. Signs of closer agreement between the ext anomalies this morning, albeit a pretty zonal picture. But with the tpv/polar profile adjusting west and the associated Atlantic trough doing likewise there are indications of further amplification of the European high at the end of the runs, not as yet noticeable with NOAAA. Await the next couple of runs to see whether this is just a blip

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0688000.thumb.png.fe9f1735898bd4a448d35f38fdb7dced.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0688000.thumb.png.4139055077ee1d9f301a4660726edce5.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-0774400.thumb.png.d85b1488940bb957210d4c67404771e6.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0688000.thumb.png.0a9bcf275ef66904a24ca58203c80c46.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0688000.thumb.png.529be6d1da573e85bf966327be374734.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-0860800.thumb.png.7f877e952609db97b337f060a4334755.png814day_03.thumb.gif.0335c6d84e71519ed1ccdaebaebb2a70.gif

     

     


  8. By midday Friday there are significant differences concerning the depth and position of the developing frontal wave between the gfs and Exeter to keep in mind as the continuation is based on the former

    108.thumb.png.96d30585594251a1eecc40216ad78db4.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.368f22c42d1eb282e2c9981c1fe3196e.gif

    By midday Saturday the deep low is just south east of Iceland with the associated front bringing rain (snow on the mountains) and strong winds to the north. But as can be seen the attack on the ridge is two pronged with a lobe of the vortex dropping down near Iceland and energy sweeping north east from the southern States/ Thus quite complex synoptics over the next few days with further developments on the trailing front and a deep surface low to the north. Quite strong winds will be the order of the day over the UK and quite wintry in the north if the front does as indicated by the gfs

    gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-9953600.thumb.png.f7242c6d03ac44a13ec550170fd16e80.png132.thumb.png.e275bfa9671d3b4f049275cb5d6dddc6.png156.thumb.png.f43067971a8f6bf8f99283f6c4c68a35.png168.thumb.png.13cf52496f88c7ee1c34bbf60c71047c.png

     


  9. Not going to look too far ahead this evening as the GEFS and EPS anomalies are poles apart (no pun intended) in the 5-10 range.

    For example the EPS has a lobe of the vortex escalated from northern Canada by the amplification of the ridge,which then intensifies around Iceland and dominates the latter half of the run. The GEFs, although also suppressing the subtropical high, is not particularly interested in this scenario. The bottom line is the detail post t120 still to be decided

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-9953600.thumb.png.2d39e3ecfb4b058807f2bcff6d70adba.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0299200.thumb.png.b5e6c3265c50e951c64242454f71768b.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0299200.thumb.png.bb833249a7da4305af468abd922509f2.png

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