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Everything posted by knocker

  1. From a chap who went to school here now living in Ontario Rather be in Penponds today 22 below zero today.
  2. Cold with a lot of fog central/southern England at the moment. much warmer down here with a low layer of Sc
  3. I can confirm that this applies two or three years younger than that. But the one advantage of advancing years, particularly in here, is that your bu*****t antennan gets honed to such perfection as to pick up the slightest nuance
  4. It's not just cloudy the front is bringing heavy rain. But all academic
  5. A quick glance at the EC weeklies update for the last two weeks of February 14 > 21 Salient points Aleutian ridge adjacent to the tpv northern Canada with associated trough NW Atlantic Quite a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard which abates somewhat in the east as the the subtropical high retains some influence Indicating changeable but with a N/S bias and nothing too drastic 21 > 29 The key difference here is the re-orientation of the tpv and the regression of the Atlantic trough that facilitates further influence from the subtropical high in the vicinity of the UK, thus portending a more settled spell of weather
  6. The ecm take on the complexities of the ridge over North america and the upper trough in the Atlantic and the developing low early next week Purely out of interest the temp contrast across the cold front
  7. The first deepening wave in mid Atlantic is tracking north east and merging with the lobe of the tpv that has dropped down to the tip of Greenland by midday Saturday . The associated cold front will bring some rain and strong winds to the north But it's the next one away to the south west, which apparently hitches a ride on the subtropical jet before the two energy supplies merge.which we need to keep an eye on as it tracks north east and deepens rapidly. This could produce some very strong winds and very inclement weather as the associated front tracks southeast down the country. But it's far too early to assume the worst case scenario as the detail is certainly subject to change
  8. Te detail at the beginning of next week is a long way from being sorted as witness the ecm has rapid cyclogenisis along the frontal zone this evening
  9. The gfs has the first frontal wave tracking north east, deepening, and merging with the tpv lobe by midday Saturday with the associated front bringing rain (snow on the mountains) in the north accompanied by strong winds From this point the whole complex upper trough re-orientates and lows form along the very active cold front which will bring some quite wintry and windy weather, particularly in to the north of the UK if it transpires like this
  10. Tropical origin of the severe European winter of 1962/1963 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2346
  11. I see the cold coven are predictable getting a tad emotive at the likely demise of the settled spell and a return to wet and windy
  12. Signs of closer agreement between the ext anomalies this morning, albeit a pretty zonal picture. But with the tpv/polar profile adjusting west and the associated Atlantic trough doing likewise there are indications of further amplification of the European high at the end of the runs, not as yet noticeable with NOAAA. Await the next couple of runs to see whether this is just a blip
  13. Meanwhile back on the farm, not so cold this morning in the midlands and north, some medium and high cloud?
  14. By midday Friday there are significant differences concerning the depth and position of the developing frontal wave between the gfs and Exeter to keep in mind as the continuation is based on the former By midday Saturday the deep low is just south east of Iceland with the associated front bringing rain (snow on the mountains) and strong winds to the north. But as can be seen the attack on the ridge is two pronged with a lobe of the vortex dropping down near Iceland and energy sweeping north east from the southern States/ Thus quite complex synoptics over the next few days with further developments on the trailing front and a deep surface low to the north. Quite strong winds will be the order of the day over the UK and quite wintry in the north if the front does as indicated by the gfs
  15. Not going to look too far ahead this evening as the GEFS and EPS anomalies are poles apart (no pun intended) in the 5-10 range. For example the EPS has a lobe of the vortex escalated from northern Canada by the amplification of the ridge,which then intensifies around Iceland and dominates the latter half of the run. The GEFs, although also suppressing the subtropical high, is not particularly interested in this scenario. The bottom line is the detail post t120 still to be decided
  16. The ecm also has a wave forming on the front but curves it NE along the eastern flank of the main trough
  17. The gfs develops a wave on the trailing front and tracks it north east to be Scotland midday Saturday To be quickly followed by a more vigorous one. Of course this is in the very unreliable time frame
  18. Still some differences with the mean anomalies this morning, essentially to do with the structure and alignment of the tpv over the Arctic and environs which cast doubt on confidence on the detail outside of the 'safe' range. Suffice it to say portending unsettle with a N/S bias
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