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Everything posted by knocker

  1. BOOM BOOM and double BOOM the gfs and ecm surface charts for t216 Evening Sidney
  2. The cut off upper low, created by trough disruption at t144, plays a key role in the following evolution
  3. https://apnews.com/c89d01fd28ab067ef9bf5ca017904768
  4. And the result of the two pronged wave activity according to the gfs
  5. On Saturday the UK continues to be effected by two energy flows with rain and strong winds over Scotland before fronts from another system track up from the south west bringing more general rain and strong winds overnight and through Sunday And by Tuesday another bout of NH amplification kicks in and a more meridional jet
  6. A lot of Cbs around, frequent squally showers, including hail
  7. Prior to, and during, the ext period the man mean anomalies have a realignment of the tpv with the main lobe over northern Canada which facilitates further amplification of the Atlantic subtropical high The precise amplitude and orientation of this and the trough to the east are fairly critical but the percentage play is a period of more settled weather with temps around average but that does smooth over diurnal variations As an aside some clarification vis the above tpv comment
  8. Today still looking at squally wintry showers, with hail and snow in the mix, as troughs cross the country embedded in the W/NW unstable airstream
  9. A glance at the EC weeklies update for the last week of Feb and the first week of March 22 > 29 Aleutian ridge adjacent to the main lobe of the tpv over northern Canada with the associated trough orientated into the north west Atlantic. Quite a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard across the Atlantic but the subtropical high is flexing it's muscles a tad over Europe with some positive anomalies with the UK on the periphery of this. Thus the flow abating in the east and although still changeable the indications are of much of this being concentrated in the north Temps above average 01 > 08 Less amplification of the Aleutian ridge and a subsequent adjustment to the orientation of the main tpv lobe and thus more influence of the subtropical high in the eastern Atlantic. Thus a generally more settled period for the UK would be the percentage play
  10. I was going to have a closer look at frid > Sunday with the gfs but it's so much at variance with Exeter by midday saturday I thought best to wait for the ecm And certainly by midday Friday not bad agreement continuing through Saturday, albeit Exeter makes a tad more of the wve west of Ireland, and then on Sunday the ecm brings further fronts north associated with the main low to the west It's all rather complex
  11. The ecm also looking at an unsettled and windy weekend albeit mild but a fair temp spread on Sunday courtesy of the movement of the front
  12. The gfs has a wintry day over Scotland on Saturday with snow on the high ground before more general frontal rain and strong winds sweep north east through the country overnight courtesy of a deep trough in mid Atlantic
  13. A wintry evening and night for Scotland and some NW areas of England with squally snow/sleet and rain showers with longer periods thrown in and quite cold with ice by morning
  14. !50kts towards the edge of the vortex at 16mb at Keflavik,Iceland, at midday
  15. Remembering Auschwitz The anniversary of the liberation of the Nazi camp comes as antisemitism is on the rise It was 75 years ago today that Soviet troops liberated the Nazi concentration camp at Auschwitz, in the process revealing to the world the scale of an unimaginable crime without precedent. Only 7,000 people were left in the camp, having miraculously survived starvation, illness, slave labour, humiliation and abuse. The main gas chambers had been destroyed by the Nazis but the furnaces, where the remains of more than 1.1 million men, women and children, most of them Jewish, were incinerated remain as evidence of what took place there. When Polish resistance fighters passed word of what was happening at Auschwitz to the allies in 1942 their reports were not initially believed. Fearing that they too would not be believed, the Soviets brought civilians to Auschwitz to witness what they had found so that the world could never forget. The commemoration ceremonies at Auschwitz today, which will bring together world leaders and 120 Holocaust survivors, carry a particular importance. That is in part because this may be the last such major event at which significant numbers of survivors are present. About half the remaining Holocaust survivors have died within the past five years. Slowly the Shoah is passing from living memory. This makes it all the more important that the stories of those who are alive continue to be told: stories such as those of Sheindi Miller-Ehrenwald, 90, whose diary of her encounter with the Nazi doctor Josef Mengele we told last week, and of Eva Clarke, a 74-year-old Cambridge woman who was born in Mauthausen, another Nazi death camp, which we recount in today’s edition. But what also makes today’s events so important is that they take place at a time when antisemitism is once again increasing around the world. In recent years there have been violent attacks against synagogues, supermarkets and homes. Guides at the Belsen-Bergen camp have reported being heckled by Holocaust deniers. In a 2018 survey the European Union recorded that 80 per cent of Jewish people believed that antisemitism was on the rise in their country and 40 per cent said that they lived in daily fear of being attacked. A United Nations report into antisemitism warned that it was being fuelled by the extreme right, the extreme left — typically under the cover of anti-Israeli rhetoric — and violent Islamist radicalism. Here in Britain the Labour Party is under investigation by the Equality and Human Rights Commission for its shameful failure to root out antisemitism among its activists. This anniversary is a reminder to the world to redouble its efforts to ensure that what happened at the Nazi death camps is never forgotten. As the UN noted, antisemitism is “the canary in the coal mine of global hatred”. British children are rightly taught about the Holocaust from the age of ten. The government will announce today a new fund to pay for 150 student leaders a year for the next three years to visit Auschwitz and hear from survivors. It has also promised to name and shame universities and local councils that refuse to adopt the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance definition of antisemitism as part of their efforts to tackle anti-Jewish racism, and warned that they may lose public funding. These are welcome steps. As the number of survivors dwindles, the world must find new ways to keep their stories alive as a reminder of the depravity of which mankind is capable. Only by confronting history can we hope not to repeat it. The Times….27 January 2020
  16. And there is likely some quite wintry weather in the NW/N today and this evening with some heavy showers in the SW to boot
  17. I do apologize but prevarication spreads like wild fires in here
  18. The morning update The alignment of the tpv shows some connection to the lower strat and the regression of the Atlantic trough and subsequent movement of the subtropical high will hopefully portend a more prolonged settled spell for most
  19. Just out of interest Jan 1989 in Alaska
  20. The overriding theme similar with the ecm but different detail
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