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Everything posted by knocker

  1. Although the vortex is still centred over northern Canada on the ext EPS it is generally quite diffuse over the Arctic and Greenland with a negatively tilted trough down through Iceland. Still some upstream amplification and a very strong upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard across the Atlantic where it is no longer diverted by amplification of the subtropical high. This would portend unsettled and perhaps quite windy weather for the UK with temps varying around the average. This evenig's NOAA much in the same ball park
  2. knocker

    Rugby League / Union 2013 onwards

    Well Wales fully deserved to win on the second half performance alone but I'm bemused by England's tactics. It's all very well having a kicking game but you need a platform as well and players who were influential in the previous games such as the two centres and May didn't get a look in. It was all bit odd and a tad worrying because Wales are a long way from the finished article as well.
  3. A quick look at this evening's ecm in the 5-10 period which is the area of transition, At T120 a waving front brings some rain to the southern half of the UK before giving way to transient ridge from the south west. This quite quickly gives way as fronts, accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds, cross the country on Saturday and Sunday as the upper trough now dominates the eastern Atlantic.. Thereafter continuing unsettled with temps around average It should be noted that this run is completely different from this morning's run as it doesn't develop the low in the baroclinic zone off the eastern seaboard and run it north east as a rapidly deepening cyclone west of Ireland
  4. There is a fair amount going on at the end of the week with the gfs. Trough disruption just to the west of the UK as the blocking high comes under pressure and at the same time there is a lot of cold air advecting around the high into the eatern Mediterranean and north Africa which intensifies the subtropical jet Over the weekend the energy and the next upper trough finally shifts the block and under the auspices of this a surface low undergoes explosive cyclogenesis which brings heavy rain and gales to the UK
  5. It has crossed my mind that perhaps not everyone is completely au fait with what the QBO is. I say this because I’m one of them. So this succinct explanation taken from “Stratosphere Troposphere Interactions” by K Mohanakumar may assist If not, not to worry Role of Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in Coupling Process dominant form of variability is a quasi-periodic (2-3-year) wave-driven descending zonal mean wind reversal, called the quasibiennial oscillation (QBO). The period of the QBO at any level varies from 2 to 3 years, and it could probably be predicted for about 1 year. The QBO is observed to affect the global stratospheric circulation. It modulates a variety of tropical and extratropical phenomena including the strength and stability of the wintertime polar vortex, and the distribution of ozone and other gases (Baldwin et al. 2001). Figure 9.5 illustrates the schematic picture of the dynamical overview of the QBO during northern winter (Baldwin et al. 2001). In the tropics, the stratospheric QBO is driven by the upward propagating gravity, inertia gravity, and Kelvin and Rossby gravity waves. In the middle and high latitudes, it is maintained by the planetary-scale waves. The contours in the tropics are similar to the observed wind values when the QBO is easterly. It can be seen that the QBO extends to the mesospheric region and even above 80 km. The QBO is driven by the dissipation of a variety of equatorial waves and gravity waves that are primarily forced by deep cumulus convection in the tropics. The stratospheric QBO effects extend to Earth’s surface during northern midwinter. There is also observational evidence that the QBO modulates the depth of the troposphere in the tropics and subtropics, affecting convection, monsoon circulations, and hurricanes. Although the amplitude of the QBO decreases rapidly away from the equator, observations and theory show that the QBO affects a much larger region of the atmosphere. Through wave coupling, the QBO affects the extratropical stratosphere during the winter season, especially in the northern hemisphere where planetary wave amplitudes are large. These effects also appear in constituents such as ozone. In the high-latitude northern winter, the QBOs modulation of the polar vortex may affect the troposphere through downward penetration. Tropical tropospheric observations show intriguing quasi-biennial signals which may be related to the stratospheric QBO. The QBO has been linked to variability in the upper stratosphere, mesosphere, and even ionospheric F layer (see Fig. 9.5). the paper referenced https://www.researchgate.net/publication/11709083_Stratospheric_Harbingers_of_Anomalous_Weather_Regimes
  6. Amongst the detritus. Rhapsody in grey
  7. The ecm does bring a waving front through on Thursday, with rain mainly effecting the south of the country, before sweeping more fronts through late Friday with heavy rain and strong winds. And then over the weekend a new depression tracks up from the south west and undergoes explosive cyclogenesis bringing gales force winds and heavy rain on Sunday/Monday. Obviously at this range merely to be noted at the moment
  8. Where we left off above can really be taken as the start of the transition, albeit we may sneak another couple of days out of the fine spell. By T144 pattern changes upstream are ongoing and another major trough has entered the Atlantic and is tracking east. By Saturday frontal rain is crossing the UK as a quite vigorous surface low tracks NNE west of Ireland. This pushes the door ajar and the rest of the ten day period is windy and unsettled as the Atlantic nips through it. Temps hold up pretty well until the end when they are back to varying around the average.
  9. The NH 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UK surface chart As can be seen a lot of low Status and mist/fog in central southern areas at the moment but should clear most places during the morning leaving a generally sunny day for the country as a whole. But the cold front associated with the complex area of low pressure to the west is edging east and cloud and patchy rain will reach NW coastal regions by around lunchtime. This will track south east during the afternoon fizzling out as it goes. Another warm day with temps well above average, unless any stratus lingers. and distinctly cooler behind the front. There will be a fair amount of stratus and mist and fog over England and Wales overnight as the weak front stalls, clearer over Scotland and N. Ireland. Thus a mild night with no frost except possibly in the Glens. So a cloudy start to Sunday which will probably burn off during the day resulting inn another warm day but upper cloud may encroach western regions during the afternoon Over Sunday evening and through early Monday some rain does effect north west Scotland as a frontal system manages to sneak around the blocking high but apart from that another dry and very warm day with temps way above average Over Tuesday and Wednesday the blocking high does actually gain a little more traction, so apart from an inconsequential weakening cold front another couple of very warm days. The precipitation for this period
  10. knocker

    New Research

    Earth may be 140 years away from reaching carbon levels not seen in 56 million years https://news.agu.org/press-release/earth-may-be-140-years-away-from-reaching-carbon-levels-not-seen-in-56-million-years/
  11. Bloody Global Warming!!
  12. The ecm begins the transition on Thursday with front(s) crossing the country. But Friday is the real turning point with more fronts bringing some heavy rain and strong winds across the north and from then on unsettled and windy is the name of the game with temps slowly returning to near average
  13. Getting sorted after the bath
  14. Interesting cloud in the NW on the 1500 geostationary. Associated with the upper front? Note the stratus/mist still in the south and the temps at 1400
  15. Temp of 15C in north Wales at 1100 with one or two others in that region. Quite suppressed in central southern areas with mist/fog and low stratus lingering/ Almost total Ci cover down here
  16. The EPS still indicating, as with the det run, the transition to more unsettled weather in the 7-12 period with temps slowly returning to near average
  17. The ecm much more aggressive vis the ingress of the Atlantic in the 6-10 period. By Thursday midday a front brings some rain to the north and from this point until the end of the run, unsettled with periods of showers and more concentrated rain and very windy. Temps still a tad above average
  18. Continuing with the gfs. It is still looking at the beginning of the pattern change around T144 But the blocking high does appear to put up more of a fight this morning. Of course probably inter run variations so any detail to be treated with the usual caution. At T168 and 192 the ridge is still in business with the Atlantic trough stalling and coming to a bit of a sticky end so still dry with temps above average but not as much as earlier. But by Saturday a front does manage to cross the country bringing rain and strong winds to the north
  19. Outlook -In the near time frame pretty much as has been previously discussed. Essentially upper troughs to the west, blocking high to the east with the UK just about under the influence of the latter with surface systems tracking north on the eastern flank of the former just tending to effect the north west The NH 500mb profile and the surface analysis for midnight and the surface UK chart for 0400 As can be seen plenty of Stratus and mist/fog in central southern areas this morning which will slowly clear all but eastern coastal areas, leaving a dry day but perhaps with diffuse sunshine. Sunny elsewhere apart from W/NW regions where it will be cloudy with some rain, and quite breezy, in the latter from a passing front. Another day with temps well above average, particularly in favored spots, and the Feb record for Wales may be under threat The Stratus and mist/fog will roll back into central areas again this evening and overnight with everywhere else being clear apart from, again, the north west The Mist/fog will again clear through saturday morning leaving everywhere with another sunny and warm day with temps again well above average. But a cold front associated with one of those systems mentioned at the beginning has edged into western regions thus more cloud and breezy again with rain in the north west. Sunday another dry and warm day as any fronts lose their identity as yet another deep low in the Atlantic tracks north towards Greenland Over Monday and Tuesday little change so waffle can be kept to a minimum this morning. Again temps well above average and once any mist/fog clears quite sunny. Again the far north west being the exception