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Everything posted by knocker

  1. At T120 at the end of the short range there is the usual two energy flow conundrum south and north of the high cell with the former gaining some traction with a surface low now over France. This maintains the easterly with showers along the east of the country with temps around average. Over the next two days the energy flows working in tandem and slowly force the high cell west over Greenland which initially pushes low pressure a tad north increasing the easterly flow over the UK with rather more in the way of unsettled weather with temps around average or a tad below, But by T168 the northern arm has dropped an upper trough into northern Scandinavia which, on the surface, has introduced a light north easterly element in the north with temps generally a little colder with showers still along the eastern fringes By T192 the battle is still raging and although the southern arm a.k.a. the subtropical jet, has facilitated the formation of a deep depression in the atlantic there is now minimal longitudinal movement so colder air has filtered down from the north over the UK which is in no mans land, Possibly snow showers in the north on a quite cold day
  2. still a lot of rain over much of England and Wales with temps quite depressed which about decsribes the day as well, although it's not been a gad day in these parts except cold in the wind
  3. I suspect the front/trough is bringing more persistent rain to the east Midlands and the south east than aticipated
  4. Gradually moving towards average by the end of the ext period. I suspect it's gearing up for a barbecue Xmas.
  5. Not a bad morning here with some Ci/ A bit nippy with a Tg of 1C The 0600 Synops http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/06.html
  6. The general point made above equally applies to the ecm and the downstream difference in detail will be down to the ecm interpretation of the energy distribution. For example towards the end of the run the ecm again has the Atlantis trough nudging a tad north and disrupting the elongated high cell which promotes the Azores to ridge north to phase with th east section of the disconnect. All of which sets up a south easterly again after a period in a col. temps remaining below average
  7. knocker

    New Research

    Radiosondes Show That After Decades of Cooling, the Lower Stratosphere Is Now Warming https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018JD028901#.W_N0tbiL7tA.twitter
  8. Moving into next week it is still all about the energy distribution, imo of course, well illustrated by looking at the NH 250mb wind profile at T168 (and maybe worth a glance at the post above) A very strong north Pacific jet hitting the buffers of the Alaskan ridge and then aiding and abetting the subtropical jet as it swings across the Atlantic. So in a nutshell the UK stays in a cool easterly to begin with which the becomes a col before a quite cold transient northerly. By day ten a trough dominates the mid Atlantic and northern Europe.
  9. Outlook - breezy, cold with frequent wintry showers. Becoming less so by the weekend. The NH profile and surface analysis for midnight Currently frequent showers north of a line North wales to the Wash. mainly in the eastern half but not exclusively so, Further south and west where it is clearer a touch of frost in places. During the day the showers will become more widespread and frequent, particularly in the north, in the strong easterly wind so wind chill will need to e factored in to the low temps. During this evening and overnight the low pressure over France begins to move north and this backs the easterly wind a tad at first and with an occlusion draped across the north of England showers pep up and become more intense here and the Midlands with snow on the high ground and this will include north wales. But the movement of the low also drags some colder air north into the south west, central southern England and Wales so snow showers distinctly possible on Dartmoor and other similar areas The wind now starts to veer and abate though Wednesday as the low drifts west, apart from the north east, and thus the showers become more concentrated in western regions of England and Wales and the north. Still feeling very cold. Over Wednesday night and through Thursday the low continues to drift west and the showers are now concentrated in the north, including N. Ireland, but particularly so along the NE coast. Warming up a tad By now we have reached the position discussed previously with, over the next couple of days, the twin energy flows exiting North America facilitating the development of intense upper lows in the western Atlantic and eastern Europe which pressurizes the high cell and nudges it west whilst leaving the low pressure adjacent to the UK and just to the west. Thus the UK remaining in a south easterly/easterly wind, albeit not as strong, with showers tending to confined to the NE and SW Temps now quite near average. So to the NH profile at T120
  10. Although tonight’s GEFS and EPS medium term mean anomalies are not in agreement in some areas they are both in the same ball park indicating a quite significant pattern change. The significant features now indicated are an Aleutian low/Alaskan ridge complex with a very strong north Pacific jet hitting the buffers with the subtropical jet running under the radar , exiting the south east US seaboard, and across the Atlantic to the UK. Both agree on the loss of the north Russian vortex and east European trough, albeit keeping negative anomalies over Europe The contentious area is mainly around the vortex returning to north Canada/ NW Greenland whilst the high pressure retrogresses and weakens and this is a bit messy. So as an overview this would portend an upper westerly flow tending to changeable weather with temps near average. Looking quickly at this evening's NOAA it would appear also to be in the same ball park
  11. The ecm differs from the gfs this evening when just post t144 the energy exiting the south east US tracks a tad north east,.Ergo instead of running under the high cell, which in conjunction with the northern energy, then relegates the high cell west, it splits it resulting in cut off cell to the east.
  12. A strong Pacific jet in the 180kf range with a very amplified up stream pattern featuring an Alaskan ridge/cold trough eastern N, America with the subtropical jet exiting the south east US across the Atlantic. This energy promotes low pressure on this gfs run which impacts the UK at the beginning of next week as the high cell is relegated west
  13. Showers in eastern regions will continue this evening and overnight and in the strong easterly wind they will spread further inland, particularly in the north east where they may become more concentrated. Further west frost quite likely, particularly in rural areas.
  14. Despite CAA in the boundary layer the UK is still in the warmer airmas, Different story tomorrow
  15. As expected quite cloudy over the UK on the 1120 MODIS and also in the southern quadrant of the high cell
  16. There is a corner of the lake where there always seems to be a load of detritus. The Grey Wagtail appears to frequent this area from time to time. Fortunately there is a seat handy where one can sit and ponder the affairs of state whilst awaiting a possible appearance.
  17. The updated fax for midday Thursday and the ecm 24 hour follow up After that it is a familiar story of the energy flows with initially the trough dominating the Atlantic forcing the elongated high pressure to the north to track east where eventually it's supported by some ridging of the European high. Given that by the end the evolution is markedly different to the previous run and the northern arm of the energy is starting to track south east one would think this is transient and best ignored without support./
  18. Moving forward with the gfs into the weekend and next week the pattern continues to be about energy flows and the precise pressure distribution with the southern flow promoting low pressure in the Atlantic under the elongated high cell. This balancing act initially has the UK in a col with temps around average before a light north easterly sneaks around the high cell with temps a little below average.