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Everything posted by knocker

  1. The 1800 UTC geostationary and the storms still impacting the west Midlands
  2. The 1500 UTC obs http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/15.html
  3. The showers/storms that have still been affecting parts of the Midlands and N. Wales today will gradually fizzle out this evening but for many areas it will be quite cloudy as the low cloud and mist ventures further inland along the eastern fringes of Scotland and England where it may well cover most of the Midlands. It will draw back tomorrow portending a very warm day in most places which may well trigger the odd storm in central areas But still 'cooler' along.eastern, and some south western, coasts.
  4. A fair range of temps across the board on the 12 UTC observations. Not bad at Aviemoor 24.5C http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/12.html
  5. High res. MODIS at 1116 UTC Clearly indicates the SE > NW movement of the convection. the Haar and the extensive Algal bloom in the North sea
  6. An update on my earlier post. Since going to post another band of thundery showers has pushed north across the Channel and is currently affecting south west counties but just skirting Cornwall. It can be seen on the geo. This sort of set up can frequently make mugs of us all.
  7. Terrific 0600 UTC geostationary this morning (courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station) The 0600 chart. High morning temps with mist and haze in places
  8. This morning the storms that crossed the west country have passed (a thunderstorm here at 03 but quite clear with some high Ac at the moment) but through the day the line of storms will move further north and generally run from a broad area N. Ireland, N. Wales, the Midlands and the south east with some intense downpours and perhaps hail. Elsewhere the south west may be a tad cloudy but Scotland and northern England bright and sunny once any Haar has cleared, Generally warm/hot with the usual caveats east coast and model temps) Overnight this batch of storms will gradually die out leaving a fairly cloudy night over much of England with low cloud and mist rolling in over eastern coasts again and perhaps along the Channel as well. This may well linger during the day as more thundery showers track NW/N from the south east. Another warm day with the usual caveat. From here a situation is developing that resembles recent events with the upper trough in mid Atlantic being split by the burgeoning Azores high pressure creating another cut off low which will track south east and boost the low pressure to our south as the ridging high enters a new phase.Meanwhile back at the ranch another warm day with thundery outbreaks spreading north but again temps along the north east coast somewhat depressed in the brisk north easterly wind. Wednesday and Thursday will be warm or very warm with temps above average with the west coast of Scotland getting a bonus. But showery outbreaks will push north through England and Wales associated with an occlusion during the two days Rainfall as expected
  9. I'm fully aware that model rainfall figures should be treated with great caution I think the five day total worth a look if only because for once Scotland is a winner
  10. The Atlantic high pressure still ridging towards the high pressure to our north east in mid week continues to split the trough, creating another cut off upper low. This initiates a westward extension of the surface low pressure area over the UK and France but also heralds another sequence in the evolution of the high pressure. According to the gfs
  11. knocker

    Rugby League / Union 2013 onwards

    Fully deserved win by Saracens, they were by far the better side, Good as a side as the Chiefs are they are somewhat one dimensional and on the rare occasions this fails against the very best, they seem a little bereft of a plan B.
  12. Once this morning's showery rain cleared west it's been a sunny and warm afternoon in many areas. Still got the Haar around the north east coast of Scotland and there has been thick Ci in the south west as can be seen on the Camborne sounding and the 1500 geo. but some intensive storms are still expected to sweep north west through the south, south west and Wales this evening and overnight before clearing although another batch may do similar a little further north through North wales and the north west tomorrow. It will again be sunny away from areas affected by the showers/storms with temps a tad higher than today.
  13. knocker

    New Research

    See Fifteen Years of Change in the Arctic https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatters/2018/04/23/see-fifteen-years-of-change-in-the-arctic/
  14. Yes presumably associated with the trough seen on the fax and the 1000 UTC analysis shows a fair bit of rain, drizzle and haze southern Midlands and central southern England. The sat. image is the 0900 geo. Still 20C in God's coutry
  15. knocker

    Rugby League / Union 2013 onwards

    Something is not right here. He's not the first to complain about this. Bath furious at Eddie Jones over bad injury to Beno Obano https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/sport/bath-furious-at-eddie-jones-over-bad-injury-to-beno-obano-d8w0tpjgz
  16. This morning's fax charts for Sunday with the ecm take on it. And through mid week the ecm follows a similar route to the gfs in creating a cut off upper low west of Ireland so that by T120 on the surface a large swathe of low pressure, centred just south west of Ireland, covers the UK and regions south. Temps still above average but still cooler along the east coast
  17. Levi's blog [Friday Evening] Alberto Forms – Flooding from Heavy Rain and Storm Surge Primary Threats to U.S
  18. By now everyone is familiar with the general analysis for the holiday weekend so essentially it's down to accessing the detail and potential of the storms and heavy rainfall that are forecast for the south west and Wales, and the fringes of theses areas, over the next couple of days. Obviously it's hit and miss where these occur so basically it's down to real time radar and satellite watching and as there is a thread dedicated to this very eventuality I wont attempt too much detail here. Some is required for continuity The rain from yesterday has cleared and a pretty fine start to the day everywhere, apart from some low cloud over north east Scotland, and it will become very and sunny in all areas, the usual caveats vis eastern coastal areas, but through the day a front accompanied by humid unstable air will push north from France across the south and south west.. This has the potential for some nasty storms and localized heavy rain across the south west and north into Wales. A similar story on Sunday but with the front and humid unstable air pushing further north potentially the storms and localized heavy rain will do the same and also push further west as well. It will be another warm and sunny day, including of course the areas in the west that miss any storms. Another warm day on Monday (note the temp in north west Scotland) but still the chance of thundery outbreaks in the west and south. But note quite an intense upper low/trough has spawned from the Canadian/Greenland trough complex and is SE of Greenland along with the associated surface features. Tuesday much the same, sunny and warm but with the strengthening easterly once more not so much along eastern coasts and still thundery showers likely in the south and west. Out to the west the trough is about to be split by the Azores ridging again but more north that north east on this occasion. The burgeoning Azores does duly split the trough creating another cut off upper low west of Ireland which merges with the low pressure to our south. Essentially this appears to be achieving two things. The Azores linking once more to the high pressure to our NE but setting the emerging block further west whilst at the same time setting up a broader area of slack low pressure over the UK. Thus still warm but still some showery risk in the south
  19. Not looking to clever across the Channel on the 1800 geo. The ecm take on the morning