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Everything posted by knocker

  1. The 0400 UTC surface chart. Currently St, drizzle and mist here
  2. Essentially this week is a week of two halves as towards the end of the week the surging sub tropical high veers the upper flow, including the jet, north westerly in the eastern Atlantic which drops a cold trough over the UK replacing the warmer and humid air that had prevailed in many areas of late. As noted by last evening’s EPS So today sees much of the UK in the humid and warm air, with Just N. Scotland escaping, resulting in a fairly cloudy day for many, particularly in western areas where St and mist may be an issue, but the cloud may tend to break up during the day and where it does it could again get quite warm. Possibly some light showers sneaking into western areas during the afternoon that will fizzle out by evening. Overnight and through Tuesday much the same picture for England and Wales but the next wave and associated fronts tracks north east during the day bringing rain and windy conditions to N. Ireland and western Scotland by the afternoon. Again temp rather dependent on cloud cover. Overnight Tuesday and through Wednesday the low continues to deepen and track NNE whilst the cold front and band of rain moves slowly south east across the country leaving much cooler conditions in it's wake. South of the front, particularly in the south east, another quite warm day. By Thursday the upper air analysis illustrates pretty well the opening comments with the trough sinking down over the UK On the surface the cold front has cleared to the south leaving the UK in a cool, unstable and fresh north westerly airstream resulting in sunshine and frequent showers and with temps appreciable lower than of late and below average. A very similar story on Friday in what is essentially quite a chilly day, especially relative to this summer. And the not unexpected NH profile at T120
  3. The bare bones of the change at the end of the week. The subtropical jet skirting around the trough in the SE United States and then joining the PJ around the amplifying Bermuda high before tracking SE as the upper trough descends on the UK
  4. Typical Camborne 12 sounding in this westerly airstream, Solid moisture up to 6,000 ft thus the Sc, St and mist all day until recently when it broke revealing a fair bit of Ci. It will probably roll in again this evening but I'm hoping for a quicker clearance tomorrow as I'm going on a trip down the Exeter canal
  5. The 1240 UTC MODIS and 1300 surface chart. The higher temps around the clearer patch around Bristol
  6. I imagine down to the uncertainty in predicting the cloud cover
  7. The 0500 UTC surface chart with some heavy rain over southern Scotland and typical weather down here of low St and drizzle
  8. The main feature of last night’s anomalies, NOAA, GEFS and the EPS is the persistence of low pressure over the Arctic with the main lobe(s) in the N. Canada north west Greenland area. This manifests itself in the short range with the sub tropical high also pushing north in the Atlantic (some disagreement on how much but using the EPS as the example) and thus the upper flow will veer north westerly in the eastern Atlantic portending changeable weather and generally cooler than of late over the UK Back to the here and now and the main feature is the decaying TS Ernesto. Currently over N. Ireland with the main rain band over central and southern Scotland and northern England. And just with ref to a post last night, the Camborne 00 sounding was only on the edge of the warm upper pool but did have an 850mb temp of 15.5C Ernesto and the rain belt will clear into the North Sea this morning leaving much of the UK in cloudy humid conditions with maybe the odd spot of drizzle with waving fronts straddled across the country and running south west. Sunnier in N. Ireland and N. Scotland and quite warm in southern areas where the sun pokes out. Over the next two or three days most of the UK remains under the influence of the warm and humid south westerly airstream So Monday is another cloudy day in general, with the waving fronts still in attendance, but where the cloud breaks it will feel quite warm. Still the odd chance of some light drizzle or the odd shower, mainly in the west. Much the same picture for much of the UK overnight Monday and through Tuesday but the scene is changing slowly as the next wave and associated fronts tracking north east bring rain, mainly to Scotland but also further south to N. Ireland and northern England during the day. Again quite warm further south The wave quickly clears away to the north east leaving the cold front to track slowly south east over Wednesday and Thursday accompanied by a band of rain and leaving cooler air in it's wake so that by the end of Thursday this encompasses all of the UK. And by Thursday more general rain and strengthening winds will effect northern areas as a front associated with a new low over Iceland approach from the north west And so to the NH profile at T120 where we more or less started
  9. Meanwhile in the Pacific hurricane Lane https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14E&product=ir
  10. The ecm with ref. to the earlier post The front and wave 12 Tuesday and the ecm 24 hours later as the front weakens And the Bermuda high starting to amplify in the west
  11. The two jets combine north of the amplifying Bermuda high and then swing south east across the UK
  12. Interesting to note how the 'warm pool' of less moist air in the southern quadrant of Ernesto 'mixes out'
  13. Some nice mountain waves over Scotland north of the front on the 1330 UTC MODIS with Ernesto west of Ireland
  14. The ecm has the front and wave just west of the Hebrides at 12 Tuesday. Over the next 18 hours it takes the wave and heavy rain east into southern Norway whilst tracking the rapidly weakening front south east down the UK. It is actually a couple of days later that the HP amplifies to the west and veers the upper winds
  15. https://eos.org/project-updates/great-american-eclipse-data-may-fine-tune-weather-forecasts
  16. The was a suggestion on last night's short range anomalies of the sub tropical high pushing north in the Atlantic temporarily and if this is the case it would herald a brief interlude of cooler unsettled weather over the UK as the upper flow veers to the north west This would be just post the short range where there N/S split would generally still apply. Back to the here and now. At midnight the upper trough to the north and associated surface low will remain influential over the weekend courtesy of a trailing front and associated systems, including Ernesto, approaching from the west. Today cloud and patchy rain/drizzle from the front will continue to effect N. Ireland, southern Scotland and north west England whilst northern Scotland will clear and be quite windy. Further south far less cloud, apart maybe western coastal areas, and quite warm in the humid south westerly airstream. But as can be seen by 1800 Ernesto and the waving front are approaching western Ireland and the rain and moist tropical air associated with this will track across the country overnight and through Sunday morning before clearing into the North Sea. The rain, perhaps briefly heavy. will mainly be concentrated over N. Ireland. southern Scotland, and northern England and Wales and it will be quite windy in some places. Mainly cloudy further south but tending warm and humid. By Monday, with Ernesto well out of the way, the UK generally is left with the legacy of warm, humid, air with the next wave and associated fronts approaching from the south west. These track north east during the day bringing south patchy rain to northern areas but drier in the south and getting quite warm where the sun breaks through in the very broad warm sector. Keeping in mind that we are still in the warm, humid air on Tuesday, another partly cloudy day but again quite warm where the sun makes an appearance as the weakening cold front wanders south. Some patchy rain in the north as the next system approaches from the south west Overnight Tuesday and through Wednesday the next wave will track north east and it's the cold front associated with this that will bring cooler air generally as it tracks south east down the country accompanied by a belt of patchy rain. But before that, and south of the front, it will be another warm day. And the NH profile at T120 and signs here relevant to the opening comments of the post
  17. Well the ecm differs with the evolution of the Atlantic profile, vis cut off low and high amplification, as early as T84 so no cold plunge later. But still looking at it being wet over the north by 1200 Tuesday with the front orientated across Scotland and N. Ireland and down to the south west. Over the next 18 hours it tracks south east but weakens as it hits the ridge and the main rain bey nips into southern Norway. But a strong W > E jet
  18. Definitely not a good idea creating a cut off upper low and then initiating an amplification of the Bermuda high pressure.
  19. The key players over the weekend. The low south of Iceland and associated front(s) and Ernesto, both showing well on the 1500 UTC geostationary