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Everything posted by knocker

  1. The salient points of the ext EPS mean anomaly this morning Alaskan ridge extending into the Arctic towards the amplifying subtropical zone in eastern Europe The tpv northern Canada loosely extended across Greenland to the trough over the UK Strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic Ergo continuing unsettled with temps a tad below average, particularly in the north. This probably reflects the usual caveats vis the day to day variations and in particular the ingress of colder air from the NW/N
  2. The ecm very unsettled over the last half of the run so it's basically a matter of sorting the detail
  3. According to the gfs over the net couple of days the upstream amplification boosts the jet and the unsettled theme continues
  4. Outlook - unsettled and very windy at times The North Atlantic 300mb wind field and surface analysis for midnight Today will be windy with bands of rain and showers traversing the country associated with various fronts/troughs eventually clearing the south east by 1800, Clearer weather behind bur showers in the north west. Temps higher than of late but perhaps some colder air creeping into the north of Scotland behind the occlusion A relatively dry night and frost free with the winds abating but showers continuing in the north courtesy of the occlusion Not a bad day on Saturday thanks to weak and very transient ridge but out in the Atlantic some active cyclogenisis has been taking place and the fronts associated with the deep low will bring rain and strengthening winds to N. Ireland and western Scotland by late morning with the heavier stuff arriving by 1800 which will track south east through saturday night The rain soon clears but over Saturday night and though Sunday there is a lot going on, including some rapid cyclogenisis, as the trough re-orientates over the UK resulting in a very windy day with severe gales around some coastal areas with frequent heavy showers and longer periods of rain The whole caboodle moves east on Monday resulting in the surface wind veering northerly, introducing colder air, and remaining quite strong down the east coast accompanied by showers But in the baroclinic zone to the west more rapid cyclogenisis is taking place and the fronts associated with the deep low over Iceland sweep across the country on Tuesday bringing heavy rain and strong winds
  5. A quick glance at the EC weeklies update for the first two weeks of January Jan 01-08 Salient points TPV over northern Canada adjacent to the Alaskan ridge Strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard south of the trough in the NW Atlantic But this abates and backs a tad in the east courtesy of some ridging from the positively anomalous subtropical high and low pressure in the eastern Mediterranean This would portend a relatively quiet and dry spell of weather but tending towards a NW/SE split with temps around average Jan 08 - 15 No significant changes except perhaps some stronger ridging over Scandinavia I feel a ditty from Max Bygraves coming on
  6. There is not much to say about the ext EPS that has not been said already, so apart from a reminder of the usual caveats, the charts should suffice
  7. Not surprisingly the gfs det run fits neatly into the framework of the medium term GEFS mean anomaly this evening. The salient points being high amplification upstream; and a very strong westerly flow across the Atlantic to the quite intense vortex lobe/trough aligned south over the UK which facilitates a secondary energy flow from around the Iceland area. Thus portending very unsettled with temps varying around the average but with the usual caveats of large day to day swings and regional variations as systems track east and different energy flows come into play No significant difference in the ext period, perhaps some lessening of the intensity but that's to be expected
  8. According to snippet I've just read in the hunting thread, Full Moon modulation.is a factor to be considered when looking at the weather on election day. I fear the casualties could be high in the thread
  9. knocker

    Frontal cloud

    Some Ac and Ci preceding the warm front over Asda in Hayle this morning
  10. An excellent example of a warm front approaching from the west on the Camborne midday sounding and the same front, which is part of a complex low pressure area to the NW of the UK, has already brought some heavy rain into N. Ireland, western Scotland and down the coast to west wales. The warm and cold fronts will track south east down the UK through this evening and tonight, with frequent squally showers in their wake, and by morning the whole of the complex low pressure area wilt have merged with the trough to the north. The rain and increasing cloud and wind results in a much milder night than of late and will generally be fog free in the morning
  11. The intense amplification over North America with the Arctic plunge down the eastern half initiates downstream ridging of the subtropical high which simultaneously pumps up the jet.
  12. The EPS mean anomalies this morning merely indicate slight adjustments to the NH pattern which essentially is as has been described previously. Thus the outlook continues to indicate unsettled with temps varying around the average but with the usual caveats regarding the impact of eastward movement of systems on the day to day detail Whether the eastward shift of the cold vortex is down to Alaskan ridge wave activity is a tad above my pay grade I'm afraid
  13. According to the gfs (and the detail over this period is a long way from being nailed down) the next low has arrived by Tuesday morning with the UK in a very windy warm sector whilst upstream the amplifying Alaskan ridge has displaced the Canadian vortex Not a lot of point in being too concerned vis the detail from this point but over the next couple of days the main trough moves east which once again initiates a transient northerly with perhaps some wintry precipitation in the north
  14. The North Atlantic 300mb wind field and surface analysis for midnight The weakening front has brought more cloud to central and southern areas but in the clearer patches still some fog around but once this clears not a bad day with sunny intervals. But further north the frequent heavy showers will soon give way to more persistent rain as the next complex frontal system sweeps in from the west accompanied by an increasingly strong surface wind Tonight the rain, with heavy pulses, will persist over western Scotland and move further south over north west England whilst cloudy with the odd spot of drizzle further south. Generally windy but milder than of late The system will clear to the east and merge with the trough to the north on Friday so a day of sunshine and heavy showers, particularly in the west, where they may coalesce courtesy of a trough embedded in the flow. Could turn a tad colder in the far north behind the trailing occlusion, Still quite windy The showers fizzle out to a great extent over Friday night and Saturday will be not a bad day thanks to a transient ridge. But out to the west some explosive cyclogenisis has taken place near the left exit of the jet and rain from fronts associated with this will encroach during Saturday evening The rain soon clears to the east resulting in Sunday being a very windy day with frequent heavy showers but the analysis has become quite complex as the latest trough merges with the one to the north (again) and a ridge starts to build to the north west The new trough re-orientates and moves east over Sunday night and by Monday the surface wind has veered northerly initiating some wintry showers in the north but in particular some heavy showers down the North Sea coasts where it will be quite windy
  15. Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL085378
  16. If I may preempt a question and take another look at this article which may be of interest at this time http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/11/record-heat-despite-a-cold-sun/
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