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Everything posted by knocker

  1. Observations of planetary heating since the 1980s from multiple independent datasets Abstract Time series of global mean surface temperature are widely used to measure the rate of climate change that results from Earth's energy imbalance. However, studies based on climate model simulations suggest that on annual-to-decadal timescales global ocean heat content is a more reliable indicator. Here we examine the observational evidence for this, drawing together multiple datasets that span the past ~30 years. This observational analysis strongly supports the model-based finding that globa
  2. The ocean heat transport into the northern seas has increased Ocean currents have transported more heat into the region called the Arctic Mediterranean after 2001 than in the previous decade, new research shows. As well as warmer water, observations suggest a strengthening of the Gulf Stream’s extension into the Nordic Seas. https://bjerknes.uib.no/en/article/news/ocean-heat-transport-northern-seas-has-increased
  3. 'Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming', @NatureClimate Arctic amplification has continued, but predictions of a more negative Arctic Oscillation, wavier jet stream, and colder winters in mid-latitudes have not become reality https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00954-y.epdf?sharing_token=UV9oTtyFCfRxT1ZfUZVLk9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Nh6pkywMmzFcEeqnuj8WP1ENtIDopMRApRSh8GIShF47Ew3_QGB2qBFuOxy9AUXpJqM9ZF9KJDsny-Cwh7sVZZcmFRt-KBlfPdsOjYatB7KUEZnuJ8WFucmpWUXLpT93U%3D
  4. Bubbling methane craters and super seeps – is this the new face of the undersea Arctic? Scientists have shared the first results of a trip to the world’s largest deposit of subsea permafrost and shallow methane hydrates. Fields of methane discharge continue to grow all along the East Siberian Arctic Ocean Shelf, with concentration of atmospheric methane above the fields reaching 16-32ppm (parts per million).This is up to 15 times above the planetary average of 1.85ppm. The preliminary results are from this year’s only international scientific expedition to the eastern Arctic. ht
  5. Saturday > Monday with the 0600 ecm And for what i's worth a spot cloud cover
  6. Stunning Thanks to Birdlife Australia Dusky Woodswallows – our pic of the week! On a cold morning in QLD's Jimna Ranges, Ken Cross of Australian Bird Safaris came across a flurry of feathers. On closer inspection, Ken realised it was a cluster of roosting Dusky Woodswallows. What a shot!
  7. Interesting to note that the EC weeklies update for the third week in June is better than ti was a couple of runs ago with a pattern that is hinted at by the end of the ext this morning So perhaps temps returning above average and still little rain S
  8. The overall comment equally applies to the ecm but the charts illustrate a different interpretative of the structure vis the alignment of the ridge and energy flows. The colder (relatively)air moving south early Friday
  9. The question is how will this evolve over the next few days The answer rather depends on the precise configuration of the Atlantic high pressure and the energy flow around it with troughs dropping south east and attempting to phase with the trough west of Iberia and thus introducing much colder air and more unsettled weather/ And the gfs this morning has the colder air arriving through Thursday
  10. The North Atlantic 300mb wind field and surface analysis for midnight Today will be warm and sunny with the highest temps in the west and, particularly, Scotland where a stray storm is possible (usual caveats vis model temps), A clear night to follow but perhaps some Stratus creeping in off the North Sea Another warm and sunny day Saturday with highest temps likely over northern Scotland and lowest eastern coastal regions No significant change overnight and through Sunday Not a lot of change over Monday/Tuesday, perhaps some patchy rain in
  11. A Spatially Variable Time Series of Sea Level Change Due to Artificial Water Impoundment https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020EF001497?af=R
  12. The ext mean anomalies this evening are indicating a fairly amplified NH pattern with troughs associated with the tpv, centred NW Greenland, interspersed by the subtropical high zones central North America, mid Atlantic and eastern Europe They are all on the same page but the precise alignment and intensity of the features in the Atlantic/European arena will dictate the surface analysis in the vicinity of the UK and that is yet to be decided. Suffice it to say at the moment the percentage play is for it to get cooler with temps average or a bit below but there are no indication as yet of any
  13. Yes indeed John and as you know it would only take a little shift of the jet to improve the outlook. Needs watching though
  14. The ecm not keen on the gfs take around t120 but then has the jet tracking around the mid Atlantic high pressure resulting in a trough dropping south in the vicinity of the UK
  15. Regarding another QBO disruption, not that I'm suggesting the same reaso, might be worth looking at this again Dynamics of the Disrupted 2015/16 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0663.1
  16. The gfs is now considering some phasing with the upper trough to the south/south east and developing a surface low
  17. I don't normally look at the 0600 gfs with good reason The difference, in the reliable time frame in just six hours, in the handling of the trough to the NW
  18. Can covid help flatten the climate curve? Arriving at a time of change, the pandemic could bring forward the fossil-fuel peak Because less energy use means less burning of fossil fuels, greenhouse-gas emissions are tumbling, too. According to an analysis by the Global Carbon Project, a consortium of scientists, 2020’s emissions will be 2-7% lower than 2019’s if the world gets back to prepandemic conditions by mid-June; if restrictions stay in place all year, the estimated drop is 3-13% depending on how strict they are. The IEA’s best guess for the drop is 8%. That is not enough
  19. Given the advent of a couple of TS in the Atlantic Basin recently perhaps the paper by Bentley, et al may be of interest Upper-Tropospheric Precursors to the Formation of Subtropical Cyclones thatUndergo Tropical Transition in the North Atlantic Basin https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0263.1
  20. The medium term anomalies all agree on the jet tracking troughs south east around the Atlantic high pressure in the medium range but the detail will need to be sorted by the upcoming det runs
  21. The ecm has a brief flirtation with phasing the troughs t96. 120 but further amplification puts an end to that for the time being But then further trough movements south east across Greenland have another go
  22. Given recent indicators the ext mean anomalies this evening are no surprise Fairly amplified upstream with the tpv pretty much centred NW Greenland with associated troughs aligned to the NW Atlantic and down the UK where it phases with the trough west of Iberia. Between the troughs the Atlantic subtropical high amplifies in mid Atlantic and the upper flow swings around this the so that by the time it reaches the UK it is from the NW and abating.Thus the percentage play is for more changeable weather cooler than of late but still near average and the precipitation estimates still very low
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