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Everything posted by knocker

  1. By keeping the upper flow north easterly
  2. Forecast sounding for southern England Saturday with nasty CAA in the boundary layer but snow off the table
  3. The excellent Modis image for 1115 shows the cloud over the east associated with the fronts (Courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station)
  4. As JH oft says, Exeter do like their fronts whichever which way up.
  5. It has to be said that the EPS is trying desperately hard to run the main splodge of very cold air to our east south east.
  6. To be fair one doesn't normally have to look that far afield
  7. Why thank you Frosty but I think we should be okay here
  8. Partly cloudy with some small Cu. Temp 8C but quite breezy from the north gusting 30mph
  9. The ecm not in a great rush to bring the very cold air in
  10. Essentially today marks the beginning of the transition into a pattern change and a different regime, albeit not overnight. Today frontal systems are still affecting the east so pretty much an west/east split with the east remaining cloudy with patchy rain and drizzle whilst the west will be bright with sunny periods with perhaps the odd shower in the north west. Much the same picture this evening and overnight, the patchy rain in the east may move a little west on the dieing occlusion qQite likely a frost in the north west after a clear night By 1200 tomorrow the high cell is established across the country thus light winds and plenty of sunshine in the north and west but cloud and patchy drizzle may linger in central, southern and eastern England on the remnants of the front and temps in the 7-8C range Away to the west another front marks the interface between the airmass over the UK and the major upper low over southern Greenland and the cut off low to the south west which have linked and at this stage there is still a lot of energy leaving NE North America eastbound. By 1200 Thursday the energy has pushed the northern section of the front east whilst the high cell tilts and migrates north east thus initiating the aforementioned new regime as an easterly component to the wind is introduced in the south but at this stage not adversely affecting the temp noticeable. Over the next 24 hours, by 1200 Friday, the front does actually get quite close to NW Scotland, and further south the wind is picking up and veering a tad. Which brings us to the weekend. The wind continues to freshen in the south and with the colder air gradually encroaching from the east it will feel very cold in the wind chill although it will remain dry apart from maybe some snow flurries it the S/SE
  11. Not surprisingly there are some differences between the GEFS and EPS anomalies this evening although they do agree on temps over the UK being significantly below average. Upstream more or less okay with the vortex over Banks Island and the trough down western North America but I suspect here lies part of the problem and best kept in mind when considering the differences downstream, This period overlaps the transition of the high pressure in the eastern Atlantic retrogressing to Greenland and the vortex shattering into two fragments, one popping north across the Arctic and the other to NE Canada. But back to downstream in this period. The crux here appears to be the interplay between the high pressure centred near Iceland and the complex Eurasian/Europe and North Atlantic trough conduit and how precisely this is aligned. Irrespective of the slightly different alignments here, as mentioned earlier temps, would be significantly below average but the differences could well impact the likelihood of significant snow and the whereabouts of such. This of course the det runs will need to sort over the next couple of days. NOAA seems to generally fit the above with the upper flow of them all tending towards the north east but this could be modified by the actual surface analysis. A tricky business all round.
  12. I have also stopped reading the other thread but just been having a closer look at the upper air profiles of the gfs and ecm and they start deviating quite early. Be interesting to compare the anomalies this evening.
  13. Well I wouldn't say that load of nonsense of course, Although having said that the GEFS anomalies are not entirely dismissive
  14. The cold front will slip east overnight bringing patchy rain to England and Wales but a spell of heavier stuff in Scotland. Clearing behind the front with initially some showers in the north west but tomorrow will be dry and mostly sunny as the high pressure moves in, albeit a bit cooler than of late, apart from in the east where the rain will linger. There is no great difference from this morning as we pop forward 48 hours which is to be expected of course. By 12 Wednesday the high cell is over Scotland en route to Scandinavia when by Thursday 1200 it has initiated the easterly regime in southern England. It's not bad idea to have an overview of the upper air for these times as the phasing of of the Atlantic and European troughs has an important role to play in the gfs evolution. No significant change by 1200 Friday but by the same time Saturday the wind has strengthened and veered a tad making it feel very cold whilst the very cold air is poised in eastern Europe.
  15. The METO update is very bad news so down on the morrow to check on Sidney's nuts
  16. The 1200 fax showing the wave and front which can just about be picked out on the 1215 Modis
  17. Six hourly max and min temps which obviously are showing a steady decline over the period and the blue is precipitation but I would ignore that.
  18. Really when was that? Funny I don't seem to recognize, or accept, some of the things I'm being accused of today
  19. No but you said this which I thought a bit odd because as far as I'm aware getting colder is done and dusted, the question of how cold isn't of course, and on the snow question we will need to wait awhile.
  20. As a matter of interest has anybody mentioned mild?