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knocker last won the day on May 5

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  1. The 0900 UTC geostationary showing a lot of thick ci down the western edge of the mainland and a wodge of cloud associated with the trough off of the Kent coast
  2. The ecm this morning has us right on the edge of the plume Sunday/Monday but a word of caution. This is very dependent on the precise orientation of the low pressure just west of Iberia and the high pressure over southern Norway.. A slight variation on the analysis makes a world of difference.As it stands at the moment.
  3. The trough with more concentrated convection on Thursday
  4. This morning's 0600 UTC geostationary. There is currently almost total cover of thick Ci here and looking at the 00 sounding a lot of cloud above what I assume is a frontal surface at 500mb I don't know how accurate these forecast soundings are but looking at one at random this afternoon there certainly seems potential for some impressive convection.
  5. Today marks the transition to the next phase of this fine spell of weather (not forgetting that this hasn't, and isn't the case, in N. Ireland and north west Scotland). as the amplifying north east of the Atlantic ridge disrupts the main trough and forges a corridor to the Scandinavian high pressure. This essentially sets the pattern for the next few days and through the holiday weekend with high pressure to the north and north east dominating proceedings and with an unstable low pressure area to the south an easterly regime over the UK is set in motion with the Atlantic trough relegated to the west by the aforementioned corridor. The detail for the next few days. Today - The front and band of rain is still affecting N. Ireland ans western Scotland and will continue to do so through the day and evening with some heavy pulses traveling along it whilst elsewhere after a clear night another warm, very warm, day beckons once fog and low cloud has receded from eastern coastal areas although it will still be a tad cooler here. But cloud will bubble up in central southern and western areas that could lead to isolated thunderstorms. By Tuesday there is a new high cell north of Scotland where the decaying front is still lingering albeit the rain has died out but temps around the region remain depressed Elsewhere Another very warm sunny day with again the chance of thunderstorms in the south. The usual caveat vis temps along coasts, particularly the east coast with the onshore wind. By Wednesday the center of the high has shifted northeast and whilst warm and sunny conditions continue to dominate in many areas with again the risk of thundery outbreaks, temps in northern Scotland and eastern coastal areas decidedly cooler in comparison. On Thursday the aforementioned 'corridor' to the west is in full swing and with the low pressure to the south pushing north a trough does likewise bringing more concentrated convective outbreaks to the south and west in the freshening easterly wind. A similar story on Friday vis the risk of thundery outbreaks in the south and again another warm day but with a definite westerly bias and cooler in the eastern half of the country with possible some low cloud and mist along the coast. The rainfall distribution reflects the above - hopefuly
  6. Something to keep an eye on tomorrow as the ecn tracks a trough north west over Thursday with more concentrated convective activity quite likely embedded.
  7. The belt of rain associated with the almost stationary front will persist across N.Ireland and western Scotland through tonight and tomorrow whilst elsewhere will be clear apart from the east coast where low cloud/mist will encroach further inland before retreating (hopefully) tomorrow. So tomorrow will generally be another warm day, enough to trigger some convection in southern areas with the odd thunderstorm
  8. The high res. MODIS at 100 UTC (courtesy DSRS) There is more or less total cover here from what looks like high Ac but looking at the 12 sounding perhaps thick low Ci
  9. The low cloud/mist quite extensive around the SE/S coasts on the 0900 UTC geostationary. Some high Ac creeping in here .
  10. Quite an interesting ecm for Bank Holiday Monday this morning with some very high temps in the unstable low pressure area to the south (30C in central France) with much thundery activity and the high temps even get as far north as the south of the UK but probable best to avoid Skegy. Of course purely academic at the moment
  11. Possible convective activity according to the ecm a forecast sounding for Monday - hey ho said Rowley
  12. The 0600 geostationary illustrates the position this morning very well
  13. The GEFS short range anomaly gives a good overview of the above
  14. Summary Fine, warm, and dry but there are exceptions Currently a band of light rain is across N. Ireland and central Scotland which will not progress much further south east against the block during the day. On the contrary it will move back the way a tad this evening and over night resulting in a substantial accumulation over the western Isles. Elsewhere it's been a clear night apart from the east and south east coasts where low cloud pushed a little inland. also some patchy mist/fog along the south coast. This will generally clear during the day So another very warm day beckons for but cooler where the sea breeze in. The gfs temps are probably under cooked but it does give an idea of the range. So tomorrow continuing wet over the north west although it may slowly clear later and once the low cloud has cleared the east anther very warm day with the chance of thundery showers developing in central/southern areas, and the usual caveat vis sea breezes and of course across N. Ireland and the north west of Scotland where the front and rain severely depresses the temps. But a key move on Monday vis the overall evolution is the high pressure once again amplifying north east creating another cut off low that slips south east towards the low pressure in the western Mediterranean On Tuesday the result of all of this sees a new surface high cell north of Scotland with a broad area of low pressure to the south thus an easterly regime over the UK which will bring cooler temps the east coast and perhaps some mist/low cloud whilst elsewhere will have another warm and sunny day with a continuing risk of thunderstorms in southern areas. A very similar story over the next two days as the high cell relocates over Scandinavia and the area of low pressure persists to the south with the continuing risk of thundery outbreaks in the south and west