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  1. The EPS mean perhaps suggesting the det is overcooking the amplification with some rain ingressing the north on Monday whilst staying very warm in the south. But of course thisis really no good for detail so the clusters need to be looked at later if anyone is interested. It begins to look as if the timing of this holiday weekend was spot on
  2. The weekend fax charts that I have just managed to locate as the usual site is not updating at the moment, would suggest some showery. thundery activity in the south west on Sunday Of coarse the big question from this point is how much will the energy flows suppress the ridge? Anyway enough of this, I'm off out to enjoy the sunshine
  3. The ecm has more amplification in the Atlantic and thus a more meridional jet and to very warm days Mon/Tues It will be interesting to see whether the EPS supports such intense amplification in the Atlantic arena during the early part of next week
  4. By Monday the movement of the Atlantic trough and jet suppress any amplification of the Atlantic subtropical so westerly airflow over the UK Looking at the GEF suggest the det run may be overcooking the influence of the trough a tad although it is indicating movement in the direction indicated by last evening's EPS. Need to see what the ecm comes up with this morning
  5. The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midday today and the current sat image Showers around at the moment, some quite heavy, in western regions which will move east during the day, but apart from that many regions will be sunny with temps not too bad But come midday moderate rain from the occlusion associated with the low south of Iceland will be effecting N. Ireland. and this will track east over Scotland and NW England during the afternoon. The rain will quickly clear into the North Sea leaving behind a legacy of showers but the cold front following on will track south east down the country through the night accompanied by a band of rain which will fragment as the front hits the ridge. Quite windy in the north With the front still trailing across the country by midday Thursday it will remain cloud here with the best of the sunshine in the south. Still windy in the north with showers but a wave on the front will bring moderate rain into western Scotland by 1500 which will extend over all of Scotland by 1800 Over Thursday night and through Friday the trough in the Atlantic moves east and a ridge builds over much of the UK but the traling front is still effecting northern Scotland so still some rain here. By Saturday the weak upper trough to the west is starting to deconstruct resulting in a dry and warm day. By midday Sunday amplification of the ridge in eastern North America has initiated the movement of a quite intense upper low into mid Atlantic and this has forced a weak trough across the north west of the country on what otherwise is a dry and very warm day.
  6. After a high pressure dominated weekend last evening's clusters then bring the trough more into play and certainly looking far more like a N/S split
  7. Looking at the EPS mean 5-10 anomaly, and NOAA, one can't help wondering whether the det run has gone a tad overboard
  8. And the continued evolution from the above post results in this 5-10 anomaly
  9. Apparent key element of this evening's ecm vis the bank holiday is the upstream amplification that initiates a new upper trough dropping into the Atlantic which in turn promotes a surge north east of the subtropical high
  10. Nice sunny day here but with a lot of interesting Ci and some quite big Cu which the Camborne sounding indicates being quite moist aloft. No doubt courtesy of the warm front clues by
  11. It will be quite interesting to see how the EPS goes in the longer term this morning as last evening it tracked the positively tilted Atlantic trough east to be more neutrally aligned over the UK as the ridge was shunted east, In the meantime I'm down to see young Sidney
  12. The ecm is predicable different to the gfs and it's basically down to further amplification and the development of the Atlantic trough and the subtropical high. So the surface analysis similar to the gfs on Sunday but varying for the better on Monday and getting quite warm. But the detail still a fair way from being nailed
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