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knocker last won the day on October 29

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  1. Moving into next week it is still all about the energy distribution, imo of course, well illustrated by looking at the NH 250mb wind profile at T168 (and maybe worth a glance at the post above) A very strong north Pacific jet hitting the buffers of the Alaskan ridge and then aiding and abetting the subtropical jet as it swings across the Atlantic. So in a nutshell the UK stays in a cool easterly to begin with which the becomes a col before a quite cold transient northerly. By day ten a trough dominates the mid Atlantic and northern Europe.
  2. Outlook - breezy, cold with frequent wintry showers. Becoming less so by the weekend. The NH profile and surface analysis for midnight Currently frequent showers north of a line North wales to the Wash. mainly in the eastern half but not exclusively so, Further south and west where it is clearer a touch of frost in places. During the day the showers will become more widespread and frequent, particularly in the north, in the strong easterly wind so wind chill will need to e factored in to the low temps. During this evening and overnight the low pressure over France begins to move north and this backs the easterly wind a tad at first and with an occlusion draped across the north of England showers pep up and become more intense here and the Midlands with snow on the high ground and this will include north wales. But the movement of the low also drags some colder air north into the south west, central southern England and Wales so snow showers distinctly possible on Dartmoor and other similar areas The wind now starts to veer and abate though Wednesday as the low drifts west, apart from the north east, and thus the showers become more concentrated in western regions of England and Wales and the north. Still feeling very cold. Over Wednesday night and through Thursday the low continues to drift west and the showers are now concentrated in the north, including N. Ireland, but particularly so along the NE coast. Warming up a tad By now we have reached the position discussed previously with, over the next couple of days, the twin energy flows exiting North America facilitating the development of intense upper lows in the western Atlantic and eastern Europe which pressurizes the high cell and nudges it west whilst leaving the low pressure adjacent to the UK and just to the west. Thus the UK remaining in a south easterly/easterly wind, albeit not as strong, with showers tending to confined to the NE and SW Temps now quite near average. So to the NH profile at T120
  3. Although tonight’s GEFS and EPS medium term mean anomalies are not in agreement in some areas they are both in the same ball park indicating a quite significant pattern change. The significant features now indicated are an Aleutian low/Alaskan ridge complex with a very strong north Pacific jet hitting the buffers with the subtropical jet running under the radar , exiting the south east US seaboard, and across the Atlantic to the UK. Both agree on the loss of the north Russian vortex and east European trough, albeit keeping negative anomalies over Europe The contentious area is mainly around the vortex returning to north Canada/ NW Greenland whilst the high pressure retrogresses and weakens and this is a bit messy. So as an overview this would portend an upper westerly flow tending to changeable weather with temps near average. Looking quickly at this evening's NOAA it would appear also to be in the same ball park
  4. The ecm differs from the gfs this evening when just post t144 the energy exiting the south east US tracks a tad north east,.Ergo instead of running under the high cell, which in conjunction with the northern energy, then relegates the high cell west, it splits it resulting in cut off cell to the east.
  5. A strong Pacific jet in the 180kf range with a very amplified up stream pattern featuring an Alaskan ridge/cold trough eastern N, America with the subtropical jet exiting the south east US across the Atlantic. This energy promotes low pressure on this gfs run which impacts the UK at the beginning of next week as the high cell is relegated west
  6. Showers in eastern regions will continue this evening and overnight and in the strong easterly wind they will spread further inland, particularly in the north east where they may become more concentrated. Further west frost quite likely, particularly in rural areas.
  7. Despite CAA in the boundary layer the UK is still in the warmer airmas, Different story tomorrow
  8. As expected quite cloudy over the UK on the 1120 MODIS and also in the southern quadrant of the high cell
  9. There is a corner of the lake where there always seems to be a load of detritus. The Grey Wagtail appears to frequent this area from time to time. Fortunately there is a seat handy where one can sit and ponder the affairs of state whilst awaiting a possible appearance.
  10. The updated fax for midday Thursday and the ecm 24 hour follow up After that it is a familiar story of the energy flows with initially the trough dominating the Atlantic forcing the elongated high pressure to the north to track east where eventually it's supported by some ridging of the European high. Given that by the end the evolution is markedly different to the previous run and the northern arm of the energy is starting to track south east one would think this is transient and best ignored without support./