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Everything posted by knocker
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Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Just had a quick scamper through the Mod. thread and I know not why but “Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?” flashed into my mind. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
knocker replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It is because the low deconstructs as the jet hits the buffers of the block to the east and rapidly veers -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Shortwaveitus - an endemic disease that tends to proliferate in winter months. There is no known cure but can be treated with copious amounts of Diazepam and plenty of bed rest. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Sacre bleu.......we are on course for possible the shortest winter on record -
Put simply the ecm next week has intense trough development in the Atlantic driven by a strong jet which at the same time amplifies the Euro ridge which effectively mixes out the colder air in the west, including the UK and isolates the colder air to the east. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4965504
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
knocker replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Put simply the ecm next week has intense trough development in the Atlantic driven by a strong jet which at the same time amplifies the Euro ridge which effectively mixes out the colder air in the west, including the UK, and isolates the colder air to the east. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The dash to make a silk purse out of a pigs ear is now well underway -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
knocker replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
knocker replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes when something looks odd the first question should be why? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
knocker replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
knocker replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I take it you do appreciate that currently the analysis has a warm front edging slowly north on Sunday into the cold air so the ens not too surprising -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Well now the moderate rain here has turned to moderate snow for a while this morning. A good example of evaporative cooling -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Teleconnections - Interactions and Impact
knocker replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A short summary of the MJO MJO_summary.pdf -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
knocker replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Time to wheel out "Will it Snow" by John once again https://community.netweather.tv/learning/basics/will-it-snow-by-john-holmes-r96/ -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
knocker replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Oh God............just when I thought things couldn't get any worse in here -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
knocker replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There is a strong rumour doing the rounds that this thread is going to be renamed the gymkhana thread. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
knocker replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I didn't say alone and bluearmy has pre-empted my reply which i have made in more detail elsewhere -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
knocker replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not necessarily -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
knocker replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not even with a strat/trop coupling? -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
knocker replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Because given the rather complex nature of the evolution minor changes with the energy flows can make a big difference as highlighted by the development and track of the frontal wave next Friday. Cryptic assertions like the one I responded to are absolutely no help to people trying to understand what is going on -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
knocker replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Total nonsense -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
knocker replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I do not agree with that assessment. The ecm is not completely different and still does not support the gfs surge into Greenland next Friday due to a wave developing on the front south of Newfoundland tracking NE to Iceland and inhibiting amplification of the ridge. The later ec amplification into Greenland is due to a Nor'easter tracking up the eastern seaboard. Having said that there are alot of options on the table so best take a watching brief