knocker

What the hell has winging from the Americans got to do with a scientific study? Apart from anything else the consequence of oil spills should be of global interest especially if they start playing about in the Arctic. I imagine the insects are consulting their lawyers as I write.

The consequences of climate change (in our lifetimes). Well maybe not mine.http:////d321955.r.worldssl.net/forum//public/style_emoticons/default/ohmy.png http://www.skepticalscience.com/the-consequences-of-climate-change-in-our-lifetimes.html#.U0_mmAWDYlk.twitter

http://desmogblog.com/2014/04/17/insect-population-dwindling-louisiana-marshlands-four-years-after-bp-blowout

I can think of more appropriate words! There have been some recent papers on hurricanes but I'm not going there.

I must admit I never cease to be amazed that in a so-called scientific forum expert scientific evidence, across many disciplines, is so frequently trashed with no substantive reason given other than meaningless rhetoric. Actually I'm not.

Mitigation of Climate Change – Part 3 of the new IPCC report - Guest post by Brigitte Knopf

Actually I was just comparing the two 00Z runs, not looking at who was following who. Just happened to look at the GFS first. Thus they are similar......................................

A quick look at the ECM The upper air pattern is similar the GFS and following on from that the surface isn't a million miles away certainly over the holiday and even up to Wednesday but not betting the house on that.

Why and how is the PV effecting tropospheric weather at the moment and creating new modes of variability as seems to be suggested? Not forgetting there is deep depression over the Arctic at the moment forecast in the low 960s tomorrow.

I wouldn't take this as written in stone. The models are struggling for uniformity on this and we are only talking slight changes here. Thanks for correcting the date. A senior moment I'm afraid.

Clear sky. The cold front is over central Ireland to southern Scotland at 00z Temp 5C Calm Pressure 1023mb falling.

Sunday – Wednesday. The GFS at 00z The overview is that the colder air in the Atlantic is once again nudging it’s way in and winning the battle with the warmer air to the NE. The 500mb anomaly chart for Sunday the 20th has colder air to the south and south west of the UK with a trough in the western Atlantic and the warmer air to the NE effecting Scotland. Similar story on Monday with the trough consolidating and deepening to mid Atlantic. This progression continues for the next couple of days with the colder air dominating the Atlantic and the much stronger heights moving northwards from the UK. Surface wise Sunday has the low in the English Channel with a strong easterly flow over the UK but mainly dry except in south with a low and associated fronts in western Atlantic. By Tuesday the low has moved towards the Scillies bringing rain to the west and the Atlantic low has moved ENE. By Tuesday the UK is in a slack area of pressure but the Atlantic trough is moving steadily westward with front lying to the west of the UK and south west winds in Cornwall. By Wednesday the main depression is to the NW of Ireland 990mb bringing SW to S winds to the west of the UK and rain. Outlook after that. Not going there.

The turnout is encouraging Heartland logic: More people have heard of Fidel Castro than Michael Mann, therefore global warming is false. http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=2496&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

If it's of interest

Dartmouth-led study shows air temperature influenced African glacial movements Dartmouth scientists' African, South American results show past temperature's effect on tropical glaciers http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-04/dc-dss041614.php

Warm U.S. West, cold East: 4,000-year pattern; Global warming may bring more curvy jet streams during winter http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/04/140416090305.htm

April in Cornwall

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-27020209

Probable causes of the abnormal ridge accompanying the 2013-14 California drought: ENSO precursor and anthropogenic warming footprint http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059748/abstract News release. http://news.cisc.gmu.edu/doc/CA_drought_research.pdf

Just to add to that for March. A wide zone of extraordinary temperature anomalies ranged throughout Siberia and the Arctic during the month with 4-8 C above average readings stretching along an enormous swath from Germany in the west to Yakutia in the east and from China in the south and on up to the North Pole. Summer-like temperatures in Siberia Large warmer than normal air pulses progressed from China northward over broad sections of Russia and Siberia throughout the month. These pulses harmonized with persistent high amplitude Jet Stream ridges over Eastern Europe to draw much warmer than average temperatures northward. By early April, these conditions had translated into 70 degree (Fahrenheit) values for some sections of Siberia, where the annual fire season had an ominous, very early start for the Amur and the Baikal — Russian regions that are typically still locked in ice this time of year. Overall, by April 6, more than 2,000 hectacres of fires had been reported by the, justifiably, very concerned Russian officials. https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/04/11/nasa-giss-shows-march-2014-was-third-hottest-on-record-as-arctic-heatwave-spurs-siberian-fire-season-to-early-start/

No probs. Aren't we all.

I'm not totally sure what you mean but I haven't seen anything along the lines of a series of lows. The GFS is still tending towards Atlantic dominated by low upper heights next week with frontal systems approaching from the west but frankly as the models haven't appeared to sort out the weekend yet I wouldn't bother with it unless just out of interest to see what actually does develop. If anyone asks me about the easter weather I'm still phoning a friend.

There does seem as if a picture is emerging but to my untutored eye still plenty of room for manoeuvre but the ECM has a similar Atlantic upper air pattern but more emphasis on the build up of heights to NE. Anyway a quick glance.