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knocker last won the day on January 4

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  • Birthday 31/05/42

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  1. Quite a good illustration on how quickly systems are moving at the moment with troughs whipping through on the jet, Early next Saturday there is a complex area of low pressure over the UK, with some ridging to the west, which drifts east but the next low that rushes in phases in with it to form another dance of the lows on Sunday. So looking like quite a damp weekend.before the gfs has another bash at invigorating the Azores HP
  2. Quite unpleasant here at the moment with a moderate hail shower.
  3. The ecm is not keen on any height rises towards the end of the run and remains unsettled throughout.
  4. Pretty grotty this morning with some moderate rain showers Temp 7C and quite breezy from the south west
  5. This morning's GEFS continues to indicate a retrogression of the pattern in the medium term with a more diffuse vortex bringing some very cold air to Alaska and some ridging in the eastern Atlantic and perhaps some quieter weather to the UK after an unsettled period. The complex area of low pressure currently with us giving some very unsettled and wintry conditions will move a way east allowing brief transient ridging on Wednesday. This respite soon gives way to the next upper trough driven east on the strong jet bringing another large, complex, low pressure area and some more showery unsettled conditions for Friday with temps around average albeit quite geographically variable At this stage there are signs of the slowing down of the west-east energy transport with some renewed amplification and the next trough tracks more south east and from here the high pressure to the SW/S becomes more influential forcing systems approaching from the west north east and thus a more N/S split. So essentially a pretty unsettled week becoming quieter at the beginning of next week with temps around average but trending slightly above.
  6. Although there is indications of the pattern change with tonight's anomalies there is no agreement on the nature and timing of this, In the 6-10 period they are all on the same page with the intense vortex N. canada, Siberian ridge and the the high cell over Greenland with the negatively tilted trough into the Atlantic. This still leaves a strong westerly and jet leaving the states but with the gradient weakening in the eastern Atlantic and perhaps some influence of the high cell to the north of the UK there would appear to be an indication for things to become a little quieter for the UK This becomes a little more complex as the aforementioned changes are underway during this period and by T240 the vortex has become more diffuse over the Pole introducing some very cold air, particularly in Alaska accompanied by the Atlantic trough becoming more neutrally orientated and thus some ridging in the vicinity of the UK. I think we can safely say a pattern change is looking like a probability but as to where it will end up is still in doubt. Temps still around average, perhaps a tad higher but tending to some N/S bias
  7. Precisely. Just run straight through the middle and then move it rapidly wide. It's not the first time this tactic has been used in club rugby. It really shouldn't have taken 40 minutes to sort it.
  8. Might be interesting, but probably not, but the gfs is trying to interrupt the Atlantic influence by introducing the idea of more permanent ridging in the vicinity of the UK as a result of some renewed amplification
  9. Cloudy with a layer of Sc. Temp 8C with a breeze from the WSW.
  10. For the next ten days the GFS remains unsettled with temps around average. perhaps a tad above, with a strong jet continuing to pour forth from the southern states , This morning Ewan forms west of Ireland and quickly runs NE and deepens to be 977mb over Wick by 1800z. So briefly some strong SW/W winds in the north west and some snow. This quickly slips away to the NE as the amplification out west gets underway as the Azores ridges and the deep low between Iceland and Greenland tracks south east over Britain as it fills establishing a large complex area of low pressure over the UK and points east, including another intense little low that has spawned in the circulation bringing some more wind and rain. This low quickly moves away SE followed by some very brief ridging before the next complex low pressure area arrives bringing periods of rain next weekend. Albeit it's relatively warm rain. There is some brief ridging as this area also fills and moves away before the next system arrives at the beginning of next week. It will certainly be a "get in there" from Sidney when he sees the latest GEFS