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knocker last won the day on October 17

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  1. There was a chat about this with one of the authors but I only caught part of it. Volcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00957-y Article https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-10/fe-vel101317.php
  2. Essentially it's a high pressure system located immediately north of a low pressure system. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/lmk/pdf/rex_block.pdf
  3. Thanks John, I should of course have mentioned that. I'll go stand in the corner.
  4. Hi Charmayne I think most on here use meteociel charts http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ But this new site in the States has loads of charts and other info for Europe as well as globally which you can browse. https://weather.us/
  5. Some wonderful photos but the "Memorial to a Species" makes me very sad and angry. Wildlife Photographer of the Year 2017 – the winners https://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2017/oct/17/wildlife-photographer-of-the-year-2017-the-winners
  6. Cloud has broken with some ragged Strato/Cu and quite pleasant/
  7. The ecm take on the amplification has the pattern further west with the trough more central in the Atlantic A variation on a Rex Block?
  8. Quiet this morning, stratus, mist, temp 12C and a breeze from the ESE
  9. The ecm is tracking the Saturday low a little further south than the gfs and at 1800 has it in the Humber area 984mb. The strongest winds remain in the SW approaches, south Wales. the south coast and the Channel of 50+kts.
  10. Today mainly cloudy with sunny intervals in N. Ireland, Scotland and N. England (maybe some slight rain around in places) but the SW, south are currently cloudy with rain which will move north east during the day effecting the Midlands and later further north. Tomorrow starting dry but mainly cloudy before the next low and fronts approach from the south west during the day bringing rain and perhaps strong winds to the south. The aforementioned low and fronts quickly clear overnight Thursday/Friday resulting in a rather benign day on Friday, maybe some showers in Scotland, before the next intense Atlantic low arrives just west of southern Ireland 961mb bu 00 Saturday with the fronts impacting the western half of the UK. It then tracks north east to be in the Edinburgh area 976mb by 1800. Some quite strong winds in the southern quadrant, maybe gusting 50+kts in Wales and the south west. The low moves quickly away east and loses it's identity leaving transient ridging in it's wake before on Monday a very deep Atlantic depression is slow moving and filling and it's associated fronts are straddled across the UK as the ridge is depressed. These basically fizzle out against the high pressure that holds sway to the south east so on Tuesday pretty much a NW/SE split albeit the temps are not too bad, particularly in most of England that is in a light southerly We are now getting into the time frame where the aforementioned amplification is indicated and how this is handled by the models will be interesting. Essentially with high pressure surging in the western Atlantic and over Scandinavia and the upper trough in the middle in close proximity to the UK, a large surface area of low pressure will be almost stationary adjacent to the UK, Precisely how this pans out is probably dependent on the precise trough/ridge orientation (will the trough deconstruct and create another WAA surge? ) and something the det runs will need to get their teeth into to sort the details.but certainly best left for now
  11. The GEFS and NOAA anomalies this evening are certainly firming up on the Pattern change over N. America and similar amplification in the Atlantic and even, maybe a tad unusually, emphasizing this in the latter period. This portends a reduction of any significant west-east movement with low pressure residing in the east Atlantic and perhaps a slack low pressure area to the south west of the UK in the later period. Plenty here for the det. runs to get to grips with. Could well be a reasonable warm set up with temps a little above average. A quick glance at the ecm and it not quite so progressive with the pattern thus the Euro high a bit more influential over the UK initially. There are differences so this is not cut and dried by any means. EDIT The EPS in the latter stages a more prosaic gentle upper flow a tad south of west but temps still okay
  12. Also after a wet and quite windy Thursday night the ecm has the Saturday low 975mb over Cork at 06 and 985mb NE Wales by 18. Thus the strongest winds in the SW approaches and in the Channel gusting in the 50-55kt region. The heaviest rain south Wales and the Midlands. By midnight it's over Hull 990mb