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knocker last won the day on August 14

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  1. The updated fax and ecm for 1200 Friday. And the ecm follow up. Quite a wet Saturday for England and Wales if that correct but still a fair bit of uncertainty about this. Very messy 0600 sat image
  2. To illustrate the different airmass by Friday one need only at a forecast sounding for the Nottingham area with last night's. Stark
  3. The imminent transition to a cooler and generally more unsettled period has been well signposted for days so no need to labour the point here but suffice it just to post last evening’s EPS medium range anomalies. It doesn’t bode well for the weekend but it is the detail within this framework that is posing the questions and that the det runs will eventually answer. After a mainly cloudy,warm and humid night ( you get the idea by looking at the Nottingham 00 sounding (Very moist in the lower layers and temp still positive at 600mb) so another day similar to yesterday beckons with cloud hanging around, particularly in the west with mist and drizzle at first, but probably with more breaks than yesterday as the day progresses and where it does it will be quite warm again, But as can be seen a deepening wave to west is tracking north east just west of Ireland and by early evening this has brought cloud and rain into N. Ireland and western Scotland. The low continues to track north east as the associated cold front and band of rain moves south east across the country overnight Tuesday through Wednesday and the passage of this front introduces the cooler air in it's wake. Meanwhile to the south another warm and humid day. So by Thursday the cold upper trough has duly arrived and the cold front is clear of the south coast leaving the UK in a fresh, unstable, north westerly which portends frequent quite heavy showers and sunny intervals with the showery activity more concentrated in the north with possible longer outbreaks where they merge. A not dissimilar day on Friday but a distinctly cool day with temps below average Saturday becomes a little more complicated and the detail a little less obvious at this stage.Still the sunshine and showers scenario and temps below average but a little wave has tracked east, despite a burgeoning high pressure and is likely to bring rain to the south west Saturday morning And the NH profile at T120
  4. The 0400 UTC surface chart. Currently St, drizzle and mist here
  5. Essentially this week is a week of two halves as towards the end of the week the surging sub tropical high veers the upper flow, including the jet, north westerly in the eastern Atlantic which drops a cold trough over the UK replacing the warmer and humid air that had prevailed in many areas of late. As noted by last evening’s EPS So today sees much of the UK in the humid and warm air, with Just N. Scotland escaping, resulting in a fairly cloudy day for many, particularly in western areas where St and mist may be an issue, but the cloud may tend to break up during the day and where it does it could again get quite warm. Possibly some light showers sneaking into western areas during the afternoon that will fizzle out by evening. Overnight and through Tuesday much the same picture for England and Wales but the next wave and associated fronts tracks north east during the day bringing rain and windy conditions to N. Ireland and western Scotland by the afternoon. Again temp rather dependent on cloud cover. Overnight Tuesday and through Wednesday the low continues to deepen and track NNE whilst the cold front and band of rain moves slowly south east across the country leaving much cooler conditions in it's wake. South of the front, particularly in the south east, another quite warm day. By Thursday the upper air analysis illustrates pretty well the opening comments with the trough sinking down over the UK On the surface the cold front has cleared to the south leaving the UK in a cool, unstable and fresh north westerly airstream resulting in sunshine and frequent showers and with temps appreciable lower than of late and below average. A very similar story on Friday in what is essentially quite a chilly day, especially relative to this summer. And the not unexpected NH profile at T120
  6. The bare bones of the change at the end of the week. The subtropical jet skirting around the trough in the SE United States and then joining the PJ around the amplifying Bermuda high before tracking SE as the upper trough descends on the UK
  7. Typical Camborne 12 sounding in this westerly airstream, Solid moisture up to 6,000 ft thus the Sc, St and mist all day until recently when it broke revealing a fair bit of Ci. It will probably roll in again this evening but I'm hoping for a quicker clearance tomorrow as I'm going on a trip down the Exeter canal
  8. The 1240 UTC MODIS and 1300 surface chart. The higher temps around the clearer patch around Bristol
  9. I imagine down to the uncertainty in predicting the cloud cover
  10. The 0500 UTC surface chart with some heavy rain over southern Scotland and typical weather down here of low St and drizzle
  11. The main feature of last night’s anomalies, NOAA, GEFS and the EPS is the persistence of low pressure over the Arctic with the main lobe(s) in the N. Canada north west Greenland area. This manifests itself in the short range with the sub tropical high also pushing north in the Atlantic (some disagreement on how much but using the EPS as the example) and thus the upper flow will veer north westerly in the eastern Atlantic portending changeable weather and generally cooler than of late over the UK Back to the here and now and the main feature is the decaying TS Ernesto. Currently over N. Ireland with the main rain band over central and southern Scotland and northern England. And just with ref to a post last night, the Camborne 00 sounding was only on the edge of the warm upper pool but did have an 850mb temp of 15.5C Ernesto and the rain belt will clear into the North Sea this morning leaving much of the UK in cloudy humid conditions with maybe the odd spot of drizzle with waving fronts straddled across the country and running south west. Sunnier in N. Ireland and N. Scotland and quite warm in southern areas where the sun pokes out. Over the next two or three days most of the UK remains under the influence of the warm and humid south westerly airstream So Monday is another cloudy day in general, with the waving fronts still in attendance, but where the cloud breaks it will feel quite warm. Still the odd chance of some light drizzle or the odd shower, mainly in the west. Much the same picture for much of the UK overnight Monday and through Tuesday but the scene is changing slowly as the next wave and associated fronts tracking north east bring rain, mainly to Scotland but also further south to N. Ireland and northern England during the day. Again quite warm further south The wave quickly clears away to the north east leaving the cold front to track slowly south east over Wednesday and Thursday accompanied by a band of rain and leaving cooler air in it's wake so that by the end of Thursday this encompasses all of the UK. And by Thursday more general rain and strengthening winds will effect northern areas as a front associated with a new low over Iceland approach from the north west And so to the NH profile at T120 where we more or less started