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knocker last won the day on April 23

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  • Birthday 31/05/42

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  1. The major difference between the gfs and ecm by day ten would appear to be the orientation of the high pressure. Both have it centred in the southern Greenland/Iceland area but one gives it a negative tilt and the other a positive. This is important because it influences the other major players the troughs to the SW and E. This in turn influences the surface weather over the UK and is something that will need to be resolved.
  2. Mainly cloudy with Sc but quite pleasant with no wind, Temp 6C
  3. The gfs this morning. At 12z Saturday the shallow depression and associated front lie west of Ireland with the UK in a southerly drift. In the next 24 hours they get slightly more organized but a squeeze gets under way between the high pressure away to the NE and the trough edging in from the south west which tilts the trough negatively and results in this analysis with sporadic rain encroaching from the south west. This rain edges it's way north east over the next 24 hours but all the time the system is declining and eventually just peters out as a transient ridge nudges in from the south west Which brings us to the pattern change with the quick amplification and the high pressure surging north and with the centre of this to the north east the UK is quickly into an easterly regime with the stronger winds the further south you go.This portends little rain with temps around normal but cloud amounts will vary one suspects under an east/west split. Although the easterly regime persists the retrogression of the high gets underway immediately and it is soon over Greenland while the Atlantic trough proceeds in the reverse direction so by the weekend we have this intriguing situation with surface fronts approaching from the south west.
  4. As a matter of interest which model is indicating a blocking pattern for May because the EC46 isn't strong on this?
  5. All this talk of an easterly but exactly how long is this likely to persist? The easterly regime is entirely dependent on the position of the high cell in this pattern change and as the indicators this evening are for the cell to originally be N/NE of the UK and then retrogressing to the Greenland area the easterly will be quite short lived.and the flow will back northerly then NW before eventually leaving the UK more or less in a col. The EPS this evening has this process underway by T264 and complete by T312
  6. Oh nothing so complicated., I knicked it from twitter.
  7. Earth Day
  8. Significant points with the EPS this morning • Weakening of the Canadian lobe as the high pressure builds adjacent to the UK and surges north west. Thus cutting off the energy feed into the Atlantic. • Simultaneously intensifying the Russian arm and tracking it west. • Thus with the surface high cell over Iceland by day ten and the low pressure WSW of Ireland around 25W an easterly component over the UK veering south east over the eastern Atlantic. • Ergo weather continuing dry but temps hovering around the average • Moving into the 10-15 period the pattern continues to develop with high pressure in the southern Greenland area and the cut off low pressure way to south with the Atlantic becoming very much an inactive zone. The key here may well be the trough to the east edging ever closer which may just put the UK back into a cooler northerly. • Still much to be resolved and the next two or three days should be quite interesting
  9. Just finished the debut novel, "Still Missing" by Chevy Stevens. It's basically about a woman's abduction but it is much more than that and quite absorbing.
  10. The ecm has the front approaching Cornwall Sunday morning and slowly tracking north east in the next 24 hours petering out as it goes. Probably the main section of the rain moving east over France. Then comes the pattern change and it too is centering the high cell to the north with the easterly component. But just to complicate matters it swings the high/trough on it's axis so ending with HP to the NW and LP to the SW. So certainly a dry scenario with temps around average but the door is ajar to various possibilities as we lose the Canadian lobe.
  11. Fine morning if a bit fresh. Some bits of Ac and small Cu. Temp 3C and a light breeze from the ENE.
  12. The detail for the upcoming weekend is still a long way from being nailed on as it would appear to be the interval before a major pattern change. This morning's gfs starts with the familiar picture of the weak ridge of the next two days giving way as the upper trough dominates the eastern Atlantic by 12z on Saturday resulting in this surface analysis which shows lows forming on the associated front lying to the west of Ireland. As can be seen the task of cutting off the cold northerly is complete and temps are back to normal. From here it starts getting a tad complicated. The main trough in the Atlantic is reinforced by more cold air being ejected SE from the Canadian vortex/lobe (last throw of the dice). This results in a 'tongue' of the trough stretching east over the UK. On the surface this results in the aforementioned front swinging on it's axis and tracking north east across the UK But at the same time a new low has formed in the circulation of the main trough and is over Lyme Regis by 00z on Tuesday bringing some more wet weather to the south, albeit one wouldn't expect a huge amount of rain from all of this. It is at this point that the major pattern change gets under way with pressure building rapidly in the vicinity of the UK and the rough shunted further south in the western Atlantic. As ever it's a question of where the surface high sets up shop and the gfs this morning has it way north of the UK thus an easterly flow with temps around normal This morning's GEFS anomaly is broadly supportive of this scenario
  13. Great video shows global temperatures rising, with ups and downs from El Niño / La Niña