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knocker last won the day on June 12

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  1. I'm not sure I would agree that the ecm shuts the jet stream off entirely as at T144 is blowing west-east 120kts and at T174 more NW-SE 130kts as it skirts the ridging HP in the Atlantic. Anyway a glance at this evenings Anomalies. A pretty good agreement with overall NH pattern which is still tending to be dominated by low pressure over the Arctic with subsidiary toughs running off in all directions. The exception being a ridge in the eastern Pacific. What is of interest to us is the general area of low pressure running from Greenland south east to a trough south of the UK. This, along with the Azores pushing north in mid Atlantic veers the upper flow north west although this is very slack as one moves north. This very much supports tonight's det. runs, particularly the ecm, with systems tending to track SE to southern Britain which does make a change. This scenario also means that temps will dip below average. In the 10-15 period some slackening vis amplitude thus a more westerly upper flow but this would portend a continuation of changeable weather although probably back to the more normal N/S split and temps back to average.
  2. The ecm again is not without interest this evening and differs from the gfs to some extent. Once the major low to the north has shifted east into Scandinavia by 00z Monday the next complication is a shortwave that has developed in the western Atlantic which at the same time is 400km WSW of Ireland. This tracks rapidly east and phases with Iberian low to form a complex low pressure area over England and France by 06z Tuesday accompanied by, perhaps heavy in places, showery activity. At this point the upper Atlantic trough is orientated south Greenland to south west of the UK which acts as conduit for the aforementioned low pressure area to be 'topped' up. as it attempts to dissipate east.Thus by 12z Wednesday a new large complex low pressure area has formed covering the southern half of Britain, France, the low countries and western Germany with much convective activity. This duly tracks east but simultaneously amplification occurs and with the Azores ridging to the west the depression which is now over Denmark intensifies and plunges Britain in a north easterly with potential to bring some very inclement weather to the east with temps well below normal. Fortunately this is far enough ahead to just note and not something to get too excited about at the moment,
  3. Just finished the latest Harry Hole/ Jo Nesbo. Up to the usual high standard.
  4. Firstly the only people using the word 'washout' are you and frosty. And if you care to look closely at the ecm output for next week there are no deep lows forecast. At the beginning of the week a shallow unstable low pressure area develops affecting southern England which I have mentioned in a previous post, this moves east leaving a rather slack pressure gradient over the UK before a similar low pressure occurs again a the end of the week which in turn gives way to the Azores ridging NE. So it is perfectly justified to call next week unsettled
  5. Although the ecm is tending to end up more or less the same as the gfs it takes a different rout to get there. Mast noticeable it runs the next system further south and by 12z Monday it's over the Bristol Channel with the rain impacting the south west. Twelve hours later it has phased with the Iberian low so a general area of low pressure with apparent instability stretching from England/Wales down to southern France. By 00z Wednesday the low and inclement weather are over the low countries with the UK in a transient cool north easterly. Obviously the details still need sorting.
  6. Fresher morning here. The 850mb temp is higher than the surface thanks to a 10mb inversion.
  7. Much fresher this morning with a layer of Sc. temp 15C and westerly zephyr. Worth a look at the Camborne 00z sounding. We still have the very warm airmass over us but definitely the cooler air is in place in the boundary layer. 850mb temp 19.0C and surface 16.4C with a 10C inversion. It's not obvious what the surface details are but I'm assuming the influence of a trough plays a major part.
  8. I'm afraid there is nothing about this morning's gfs that contradicts the change to cooler unsettled weather that has been sign posted for some days now. Starting this evening as the upper low, currently between Greenland and Iceland, tracks east and surface features impact Scotland.This movement continues and by 00z Sunday the low is just north of Scotland which is under a showery regime in a strong WNW wind. This will also affect northern England but further south ridging from the Azores more influential so drier but temps now nearer average. What follows is not exactly straight forward. The Atlantic plays a key role but not in the way one would normally expect. The next trough quickly arrives from the west and forms a large complex slow moving low pressure area in the vicinity of the UK. Essentially it gets cut off from points west as high pressure builds in the western Atlantic which reinforces the jet but also tracks it north east along the eastern seaboard and then south east over southern France/norther Iberia. The whole pattern moves slowly east with the jet swinging south west of the UK and then strongly east over central Europe. Ans the low moves into the North Sea the surface wind will veer northerly and temps fall below average. So what about the weather. Pretty much a N/S split this weekend with Scotland bearing the brunt but from Monday becoming generally more unsettled but I've absolutely no idea vis specifics so will just leave it there. Temps around average but falling below towards the end of the week.
  9. The ecm cool plunge If it was winter the defibrillators would be on standby
  10. Some sea fog has been reported presumably on the south coast.
  11. Could you elaborate on that because I haven't seen anyone saying that. In fact the only person who has repeatable used the expression "cool unsettled washout" is you when you put your inevitable spin on your posts. And it might help if you removed Mystic Meg from speed dial as there aren't many of us who can forecast thundery weather in July.
  12. After the cool north westerly plunge on Sunday as the depression skirts Scotland it may be worth keeping an eye on the next low as it phases with the Iberian low and forms an interesting little duet.
  13. Interesting. What appears to be a bank of St is rapidly drifting in from the SW and blotting out the sun
  14. Feels much better here today mainly as we would appear to have generated quite a good sea breeze from the S/SE up to around 15kts. Possibly augmented by the terrain the SE but more detail would be required to verify that.The midday sounding is quite interesting and shows a very warm airmass , 20.6C at 850mb so surface temps away from boundary layer modifications may be quite interesting. As it is here we have deep 100mb inversion.
  15. Poorly modelled showers moving into NW Eng, *could* increase risk of TS later, due to higher dew points, this zone still main region by eve. H/t Matt Hugo