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knocker last won the day on February 5

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  1. Saturday > Monday with the 0600 ecm And for what i's worth a spot cloud cover
  2. Stunning Thanks to Birdlife Australia Dusky Woodswallows – our pic of the week! On a cold morning in QLD's Jimna Ranges, Ken Cross of Australian Bird Safaris came across a flurry of feathers. On closer inspection, Ken realised it was a cluster of roosting Dusky Woodswallows. What a shot!
  3. Interesting to note that the EC weeklies update for the third week in June is better than ti was a couple of runs ago with a pattern that is hinted at by the end of the ext this morning So perhaps temps returning above average and still little rain S
  4. The overall comment equally applies to the ecm but the charts illustrate a different interpretative of the structure vis the alignment of the ridge and energy flows. The colder (relatively)air moving south early Friday
  5. The question is how will this evolve over the next few days The answer rather depends on the precise configuration of the Atlantic high pressure and the energy flow around it with troughs dropping south east and attempting to phase with the trough west of Iberia and thus introducing much colder air and more unsettled weather/ And the gfs this morning has the colder air arriving through Thursday
  6. The North Atlantic 300mb wind field and surface analysis for midnight Today will be warm and sunny with the highest temps in the west and, particularly, Scotland where a stray storm is possible (usual caveats vis model temps), A clear night to follow but perhaps some Stratus creeping in off the North Sea Another warm and sunny day Saturday with highest temps likely over northern Scotland and lowest eastern coastal regions No significant change overnight and through Sunday Not a lot of change over Monday/Tuesday, perhaps some patchy rain in the far NW on Tuesday courtesy of the weak cold front. But the overall NH pattern is slowly evolving
  7. A Spatially Variable Time Series of Sea Level Change Due to Artificial Water Impoundment https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020EF001497?af=R
  8. The ext mean anomalies this evening are indicating a fairly amplified NH pattern with troughs associated with the tpv, centred NW Greenland, interspersed by the subtropical high zones central North America, mid Atlantic and eastern Europe They are all on the same page but the precise alignment and intensity of the features in the Atlantic/European arena will dictate the surface analysis in the vicinity of the UK and that is yet to be decided. Suffice it to say at the moment the percentage play is for it to get cooler with temps average or a bit below but there are no indication as yet of any significant precipitation
  9. Yes indeed John and as you know it would only take a little shift of the jet to improve the outlook. Needs watching though
  10. The ecm not keen on the gfs take around t120 but then has the jet tracking around the mid Atlantic high pressure resulting in a trough dropping south in the vicinity of the UK
  11. Regarding another QBO disruption, not that I'm suggesting the same reaso, might be worth looking at this again Dynamics of the Disrupted 2015/16 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0663.1
  12. The gfs is now considering some phasing with the upper trough to the south/south east and developing a surface low
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