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knocker last won the day on August 16

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  1. Well the ecm apart from ringing the changes from 00z is not without interest. The travels of the low (ex Gert) sees it west of the Hebrides at 00z Tuesday from where it moves slowly east and loiters in the vicinity of Scotland until saturday leaving the southern half of the UK in a light showery westerly.. But the travels of the low have also disrupted the high pressure to the west and an upper trough sinks south in the Atlantic over Thursday and Friday which phases with the low pressure over Iberia which spawns and unstable surface feature that tracks north to effect the south with some impressive convective activity on Saturday Well it would be impressive in a more realistic time frame The trough then extends south initiating some impressive WAA into Germany. I don't need to repeat that this is so different to the previous run and other models that next week is still a long way from being nailed down.
  2. I haven't seen one in my garden, it's currently Sparrow heaven, but there are plenty down at the country park. Speaking of which I came across this sign from a wildlife area in the States that would be useful down there
  3. One of the problems I find taking photos of Great Tits is that it's often difficult to get any definition around the eyes because of the dark head. You can see the problem here only this little fella conveniently turned his head whilst contemplating popping across for a nut.
  4. As Americans anxiously await next week’s total eclipse of the sun, many are making plans not only to observe it, but also to record their observations in order to calculate their longitude. Or maybe not…But in 1811, when the solar eclipse that occurred on Constitution Day was visible in central Virginia, that is exactly what Thomas Jefferson did. https://blogs.loc.gov/teachers/2017/08/thomas-jefferson-and-the-1811-constitution-day-eclipse/
  5. http://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/anu-led-study-solves-mystery-of-how-first-animals-appeared-on-earth
  6. Just surfaced Diving again (hopefully get this right one day )
  7. The ecm still not in agreement with the gfs vis the handling of Gert which at this range is not brilliant. At 12z Monday it has the center of the low much further west with the fronts just effecting NI and NW Scotland. In the next 24 hours the low drifts slowly east with the rain only impacting the northern half of the UK. It then turns NE and the Azores ridge pushes in from the south west and still only the north west within the circulation of the low. But the Azores HP does not amplify to the west as with the gfs and the UK stays in a general westerly flow with a classic N/S split. as any systems traveling east only impact the north. So out of all this the southern half of the UK remaining dry and perhaps quite warm the beginning of the week with again the north being unfortunate regarding rain.
  8. Not sure there is much to be gained by getting too hung up on the anomalies post Gert at the moment as consistent they are not as a quick glance at the last two NOAA charts will illustrate. Suffice it to say they are currently all in the same ball park which would indicate that the percentage play is a more settled spell with Azores HP to the SW/W becoming more influential but as ever the precise orientation and intensity of the surface high will be key to the detail and duration vis the UK (the EPS is not dissimilar to the GEFS) So on to the gfs this morning. The current low the NW tracks ESE to be just off NE Scotland by 12z tomorrow with the UK in a showery north westerly This gradually moves away towards Norway on Saturday as a transient ridge nudges in briefly on Sunday but by 06z on Monday the next low (ex Gert) has arrived ENE of the Hebrides with associated fronts across the north west. What happens next is perhaps the key to the rest of next week and in the next 24 hours the gfs deepens the low somewhat and runs it down to the east North Sea diving a pretty inclement day on Monday, particularly in the north before the surface wind veers northerly as the high pressure that has been amplifying to the west tracks a little east. For the rest of the week the HP is in charge before retrogressing towards the end of week leaving the door ajar for troughs to swing around it and SE towards the UK a scenario that this morning's GEFS would not appear adverse to. An illustration of the importance of the orientation of the surface high cell
  9. New Research

    Ocean circulation, coupled with trade wind changes, efficiently limits shifting of tropical rainfall patterns https://m.phys.org/news/2017-07-ocean-circulation-coupled-efficiently-limits.html
  10. Streuth he's low
  11. From Amy Butler: "In summer it reverses direction. By "return", I mean it will return to westerlies. That's important because strat-trop coupling can occur".
  12. Medical issues

    Excellent news ciel, The only problem I have had with the day surgery clinics in the past is that if you are near the end of the queue you may not have surgery until the afternoon and that may entail you being kept overnight. Which is what happened to me on the last occasion.
  13. Just to emphasize yet again why next week, and in particular the handling of Gert, is a long way from sorted and you need to look no further than this evening's ecm. Midday Monday sees that the low which is the result of Gert is west of N.I at about 20W with associated fronts just impacting the north west. It then tracks the low slowly east over the next 48 hours to be in the North Sea just east of Scotland by 12z Wednesday, So a showery couple of days with the odd longer period of rain. By Thursday 12z the low is over southern Norway and the Azores is starting to ridge north east. As mentioned at the beginning next week remains a lottery until the track of Gert is sorted
  14. Cornish oysters thrive with traditional fishing https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cornish-oysters-thrive-with-traditional-fishing-p2rbr6z97