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knocker last won the day on October 12

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  1. The ecm differs from the gfs so the detail is still a long way from settled. It drops the trough and front down Friday midnight, the colder air is actually to the west and ends up in Iberia. It then builds a much stronger ridge to the west which forces the trough south and sets up an unstable cold, north easterly over the UK
  2. Sunday sees the first trough and fronts clearing away to the south as the high pressure attempts to ridge north east. But there is still a lot of energy tracking around the high pressure, which is once again amplifying in the western Atlantic, courtesy of the eastern seaboard trough, and 24 hours later the next trough and fronts are approaching from the north west According to the gfs of course
  3. Peekaboo in the Willow in the Autumn sunlight this morning
  4. knocker

    Rugby League / Union 2013 onwards

    That was some game at Toulouse Looks like they are back!
  5. knocker

    Rugby League / Union 2013 onwards

    Stone me. After playing 9 minutes of extra time, and 40 phases, the Falcons score a try to beat Montpelier. And it's official; Deano smiled..
  6. A quick shufty at the medium term mean GEFS and EPS anomalies. Although not in complete agreement which one wouldn’t expect anyway, are certainly in the same ball park. A rather slack vortex over the Arctic with an associated trough down through Iceland >UK>Mediterranean associated with an east European ridge extending across northern Scandinavia. Thus a fairly strong westerly upper flow, tending to back in the vicinity of the UK under the influence of the ridge, suggesting a generally changeable picture over the UK with temps remaining below average. As always this is just an overview and further detail left to actual evolution and the det. runs. Last night's NOAA differs somewhat with the position of the trough and retains some ridging in the Atlantic which allows the flow to veer NW over the UK. This may be down to a longer time frame. Or it may not. Irrespective it would probably still lead the changeable conditions and temps below average.
  7. knocker

    Rugby League / Union 2013 onwards

    Funny old game yesterday between Wasps and Bath, albeit entertaining, which ended 35 apiece. Saracens duly beat Lyon but it wasn't the best of games. Elsewhere wins Elsewhere wins for Racing and the result of the day, Edinbugh putting 40 on Toulon.
  8. Not a pleasant day on Saturday and a widespread frost Sunday morning
  9. Plenty of mist and fog around in central and southern England on the 0600 chart, and quite interesting temps in NE coastal regions
  10. Just to briefly add to the short range post with the cold plunge over the weekend And a forecast sounding in the cold unstable air with the tropopause down to 350mb The ridge attempts to build behind this but another upper trough arrives from the north west by Tuesday according to th gfs.
  11. Essentially high pressure remains influential over this period but this requires quantifying a little. The position and orientation of the high is such that that some inclement weather does encroach the north, particularly Scotland, and towards the end of the period the south west quadrant of the mainland will tend to become the favoured area for the better weather. But it should be noted that by the end of the period this rather static period is on the cusp of coming to a rather abrupt end And out of interest the current state of play in the Atlantic ocean The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the WV image for 0300 Pretty much cloud free in the south overnight so some mist and fog patches forming around now butt further north some cloud around the decaying front and further north over north west Scotland rain associated with the cold front. This rain belt, along with the front, will track south east during the day, but as has been the case so often, will tend to fizzle out en route to essentially a cloudy feature. South of this another fine and quite warm day but in it's wake cooler air with showers. The front continues on it's travels south during the evening, eventually clearing the south coast, with breezy and showery conditions continuing over northern Scotland and a much cooler night generally with some frost and mist and fog patches around by morning But during Monday the ridge has come under pressure from the energy running around it's northern flank and rain and strong winds associated with a frontal system are impacting the north. Calmer and drier further south under the rather elongated ridge but the temps not particularly impressive. Overnight and through Tuesday quite breezy in many areas as the wind veers with still some patchy rain over Scotland, Elsewhere dry and fairly warm. Wednesday is essentially the last day before the start of the transition alluded to at the beginning with an upper trough dropping south over eastern North America and the high cell realigning adjacent to the UK, resulting in a generally quite warm and dry day with the odd shower still over western Scotland. By Thursday the transition is well underway with the amplification in the western Atlantic and an upper trough approaching the UK from the north west. But still a relatively benign day over the UK with temps around average but some showery rain over Scotland from a shallow low and associated fronts. And at T120 the upper trough is dropping south east over the UK and about to introduce much colder to the UK
  12. knocker

    Links to Reports and Papers

    Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming? https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming?utm_content=buffer471c9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
  13. The EPS favours the midnight solution for next Sunday which merely emphasizes the current uncertainty