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  1. Encouraging that the EPS is still indicating a weakening and retrogression of the Iceland trough with a corresponding height increase in the eastern Atlantic so certainly an easing of the unsettled weather (perhaps not so much in the north)
  2. Similarly the ecm, after a wet day on Sunday and then a brief respite, has the frontal systems of a deep low to the north west bringing more rain and strong winds overnight Monday through Tuesday And as this clears it's quickly followed by more heavy rain in the early hours of Weds as the low tracks north of Scotland with a continuation of the strong winds with gales in exposed areas
  3. At this stage the detail, as we move through next week, is impossible to pin down but the medium term GEFS gives a flavor of the general picture. Essentially unsettled with the usual day-to-day caveats and temps a tad above average
  4. According to the gfs, over the next 36 hours the upper trough dissipates but another quite intense affair has tracked into mid Atlantic and between this and the TPV/trough to the east, the European ridge is disrupted and a high cell is created over Iceland, There is a deep surface low associated with this that has undergone explosive cyclogenesis and the fronts associated bring rain and quite strong winds to the country on Tuesday. By Weds the upper trough has tracked east over the country as the filling surface low does like wise. All of this will of course be subject to revision
  5. The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UK synoptic chart After a chilly start in many areas it will be a very pleasant day with plenty of sunshine. The exception being northern Scotland where it will be cloudy with intermittent rain, courtesy of a warm front trailing around the northern flank of the high The rain will persist overnight whilst elsewhere will be clear and quite chilly again with patchy mist By Thursday the warm front has finally cleared off so a sunny day everywhere and a tad warmer than today Pretty much a repeat performance over Thursday night and through Friday but note the high cell is being pushed east as the Atlantic gathers itself. By Saturday the negatively tilted upper trough to the west has edged closer which does initiate some advection of warmer air from the south but also introduces cloud and patchy rain to some western and southern regions late on, courtesy of a trough which is the front runner of the main event On Sunday the energy flows force the European ridge north west as the upper trough becomes more negatively tilted and the waving surface front brings more general rain to the country
  6. The 5-10 NOAA and EPS this evening are singing from the same hymn sheet, The atlantic trough in the Iceland area with a strong westerly upper flow running south of it across the UK to some fair amplification in Europe. This would portend unsettled weather but much of the air is sourced a fair way south so temps above average In the ext period a general relaxing of the trough and thus the upper flow easing as pressure rises to some extent over the UK. Still changeable but much more of a northern bias vis inclement weather with temps still above average
  7. The ecm has the first upper trough deconstructing on Sunday as the surface front brings rain to most of the country. Whilst at the same time in mid Atlantic another low has developed at the base of the main upper trough This then merges with the trough and deepens rapidly over the next 30 hours to be 953mb SW of Iceland as the jet tracks it NNE,although the associated waving front will cross the country bringing quite strong winds and rain Over the next 24 hours analysis becomes quite complex with the troughs 'squeezing' the ridge and two surface lows with more fronts crossing the country. But this is obviously getting too far for this sort of detail
  8. The ecm has the waving front traversing the county on Sunday thus wet and windy, with the next low in mid Atlantic. This low deepens rapidly and tracks north east to Iceland over the next 30 hours, courtesy of the continuing influence of the European ridge and TPV/trough which, in combination,divert the energy crossing the Atlantic The associated fronts bringing more rain and strong winds through Monday
  9. The GEFS medium term mean anomaly indicates remaining changeable but with a NW/SE bias,
  10. High pressure will dominate over the UK this week so cue to keep the waffle to a minimum The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis at midnight As stated with high pressure in charge today > Thursday dry, sunny with light winds for most, so very pleasant after a chilly start to the days. The one exception will be the far north where some cloud and light rain may intrude, courtesy of the stray front moving around the periphery of the high cell By Friday the country is still under the influence of the high cell but it been shinted to the east by pressure from the Atlantic with the upper trough to the fore. The shunting continues on Saturday, albeit the ridge is quite resilient, and the movement results in probably the warmest day of the week. But cloud and rain from a front slowly moving east will effect western regions during the afternoon. By Sunday the large, and complex, Atlantic trough is in charge and a wet and windy day is on the cards for the UK This frontal system clears away quite quickly but an intense surface low has tracked rapidly north east to be 969mb NW of Ireland by midday Monday and the associated fonts will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the north. This is according to the gfs
  11. Only 51% in GB. No surprise there https://yougov.co.uk/topics/science/articles-reports/2019/09/15/international-poll-most-expect-feel-impact-climate?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=international_climate_change
  12. According to the ecm this evening there are quite complex developments involving the upper trough in the Atlantic as it and the energy finally removes the ridge over the weekend The trough in the eastern Atlantic is given a boost by energy running around the north and south of the East American ridge and an intense upper low forms west of Ireland by midday Sunday Over the next 48 hours this low moves rapidly away to the north east but another major upper low has tracked east and if this is anywhere near the money some very windy and unsettled weather is a distinct possibility next week. Of course this is a fair way away so merely worth keeping an eye on at the moment
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