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knocker last won the day on February 20

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  1. knocker

    New Research

    Earth may be 140 years away from reaching carbon levels not seen in 56 million years https://news.agu.org/press-release/earth-may-be-140-years-away-from-reaching-carbon-levels-not-seen-in-56-million-years/
  2. Bloody Global Warming!!
  3. The ecm begins the transition on Thursday with front(s) crossing the country. But Friday is the real turning point with more fronts bringing some heavy rain and strong winds across the north and from then on unsettled and windy is the name of the game with temps slowly returning to near average
  4. Getting sorted after the bath
  5. Interesting cloud in the NW on the 1500 geostationary. Associated with the upper front? Note the stratus/mist still in the south and the temps at 1400
  6. Temp of 15C in north Wales at 1100 with one or two others in that region. Quite suppressed in central southern areas with mist/fog and low stratus lingering/ Almost total Ci cover down here
  7. The EPS still indicating, as with the det run, the transition to more unsettled weather in the 7-12 period with temps slowly returning to near average
  8. The ecm much more aggressive vis the ingress of the Atlantic in the 6-10 period. By Thursday midday a front brings some rain to the north and from this point until the end of the run, unsettled with periods of showers and more concentrated rain and very windy. Temps still a tad above average
  9. Continuing with the gfs. It is still looking at the beginning of the pattern change around T144 But the blocking high does appear to put up more of a fight this morning. Of course probably inter run variations so any detail to be treated with the usual caution. At T168 and 192 the ridge is still in business with the Atlantic trough stalling and coming to a bit of a sticky end so still dry with temps above average but not as much as earlier. But by Saturday a front does manage to cross the country bringing rain and strong winds to the north
  10. Outlook -In the near time frame pretty much as has been previously discussed. Essentially upper troughs to the west, blocking high to the east with the UK just about under the influence of the latter with surface systems tracking north on the eastern flank of the former just tending to effect the north west The NH 500mb profile and the surface analysis for midnight and the surface UK chart for 0400 As can be seen plenty of Stratus and mist/fog in central southern areas this morning which will slowly clear all but eastern coastal areas, leaving a dry day but perhaps with diffuse sunshine. Sunny elsewhere apart from W/NW regions where it will be cloudy with some rain, and quite breezy, in the latter from a passing front. Another day with temps well above average, particularly in favored spots, and the Feb record for Wales may be under threat The Stratus and mist/fog will roll back into central areas again this evening and overnight with everywhere else being clear apart from, again, the north west The Mist/fog will again clear through saturday morning leaving everywhere with another sunny and warm day with temps again well above average. But a cold front associated with one of those systems mentioned at the beginning has edged into western regions thus more cloud and breezy again with rain in the north west. Sunday another dry and warm day as any fronts lose their identity as yet another deep low in the Atlantic tracks north towards Greenland Over Monday and Tuesday little change so waffle can be kept to a minimum this morning. Again temps well above average and once any mist/fog clears quite sunny. Again the far north west being the exception
  11. Looks like NOAA now on board with the upstream pattern changes in the critical 6-10 period and pretty much in line later with this evenings EPS.
  12. The ecm on a similar pattern change, albeit different detail, and at the end has shifted the upstream pattern east, dislodging the vortex resulting in another Arctic plunge. Downstream the European high pressure is just about hanging in there
  13. The pattern change from 132 >156>180>1204 with this evening's gfs EDIT This would again plunge North America into the freezer