Ladyofthestorm

Never seen it drop like that before. Impressive

Absolutely

That's an upgrade!

Definitely not too late. Some our worst blizzard's happen in Spring. Sun strength or not.

The MJO with my limited knowledge is heading towards 6 and 7 in the next 5 to 12 days. I'm watching the runs on this model, much cleaner than the GFS where it's taking it closer to the centre. I do think this is the best opportunity this winter for a reversal and so called Beast from the East. I actually suspect it will open the doors to the North like in March 2006 !

Add on the reversal of zonal winds forecast and the jigsaw is starting to come together. Not a single run above 0 in 10 days time . Lots of model uncertainty with MJO... Unusual. Every time I see it, it's significantly changes it position of the points on the graph. At least it's not in the circle of death.

A brief resume of last week and this week's zonal winds forecast. Reversal on the way.

1988 to 89 big la Nina , I knew it was one

Absolutely 1989?

The 1990s were devoid of Easterlies. Plenty potent Nlys winter December 95 being one. I suspect climate forcing effects by CFCs perhaps? They were phased out shortly afterwards. Volcanic activity... Such as Pinatubo it was a biggy

But waters around UK are cooler

Just a thought the PV and stratosphere is warming off the backend of a record breaking low point. Maybe we should be looking for historical patterns of below average Stratospheric temps and reversals. It's a big hill to climb!

And that's considering we have such a positive NAO and the SPV over Canada and Greenland!

It's absolutely mindblowing that GFS is sticking to it's guns and now after a blast from the east turns it around to the North and North East later in the runs. There is absolutely no doubt it's out on its own, but latest ensemble's runs on what was an unreliable time frame 5 days ago are now picking up that distinct cooling trend with +96hrs. Someone above posted up a comparison of the three models at same time.. it looked fine detail and margins! With the slightly greater exaggeration of the high Aleutian High ( and it's a ridge) on the GFS. Is that ripple really enough to create an exaggeration of the Jetstream bends and send it south or broken off. Incredibly strong PV over the Greenland Canada side. But it is still very much stretched . I'm really intrigued as to what our in house professionals are thinking . Slight head scratching thinking the GFS gotta change soon. Mind is telling me the euro model, but my heart and gut instinct tell me otherwise. I suppose with all these models they are only as good as the humans who input the variables into them. Most are still using analogue data based on previous weather events to create a model run. That in itself is limiting as analogue data does not contain climate forcing factors or all those negative feedback loops of melting ice caps. When does the zonal winds data come out today?

Scotland covers half the UK. It was as a moved post from another thread with reference to March 2006.

They are indeed. Get the cold into Europe, turn the Atlantic tap off, thankyou stretchy PV. A nudge from the SSW that have taken place and then one final shove from a final warning . Mid February we are back in the freezer . Cancel early spring!

Hi Stuie Missed that bit. Downward trending continuing. If it gets back to nearly neutral we could be in for interesting weather For us too! For once . Been an amazing year

It's a gradual move and one that I think will be significant in 2 weeks time. Mid February onwards .

Scotland covers half the country. But March 2006 was very cold.

I wonder what the teleconnections thought of March 2006? That was a very cold March and very snowy but no beast from the East.

The GFS blocking pattern Remember trend is your friend. This isn't a west based NAO Atlantic driven regime.

We live in the Western Isles. Windiest , stormiest place in the UK . With such a strong NAO, synoptic setup to Atlantic dominated . It hasn't been that bad at all unsettled but definitely NOT stormy.

Such differences between the GFS, And the Euro within such a short timescale. Do you remember that ECM the infamous one that forecasted a beast and then redacted it. Just be wary of a reverse . It is forecasting heights over Scandinavian areas but not the block. GFS is really consistent and sticking to guns like it did forecasting the warmth of summer . Although teleconnections don't support it ( at all) the now .. the NAO is heading downward to negative. Intriguing

Sticking my neck out.... Predicting a beast from the east mid Feb onwards. Not often we see a positive NAO with a scandi high. One things for sure pressure building over UK... One way or another

Any updates on the zonal winds graph ?