Ladyofthestorm

Good morning everyone. I've been in hibernation waiting in vain hope for some drier colder weather.. lol. I've been watching with interest the models picking up this as we head into January. The wobble from the Jetstream from the models. The wobble as I call it will have a knock on effect on the weather we receive in January. Yes a mild SSW may take place, but I don't expect to see a reversal of winds etc. Colder weather and snow is going to come from the North or North West. I think ridges of high pressure from mid Atlantic interdespersed with deep NWly flows toppling down. I'm noting the Polar Vortex over the UK during warming too. No classic beasterlies yet. But pretty exciting and fast moving weather to be had.

For goodness sake it's the CFS!!!

That basically covers everything....

So winter might be over if the charts are to be believed. I got the impression from the 18z GFS that it was low pressure followed by a ridge Sly winds toppler rinse and repeat. Not sure what to think other than the SSW got the wrong continent and it isn't happening for us this year.

I love your charts Knocker! It does indeed look like a similar setup to last winter (Nov, Dec, Jan). When the jet was having a Tango! It does look very wintry over the next few weeks at times. Every chart is pointing towards that trend.

Altnaharra I reckon .. -15C by the end of the night. Winds decreasing.

All roads lead to cold. . NW then NE. We should rename the thread . The hunt for mild .. it's gonna be a long time before we see double figures again.

Good effort! METO all the way. (PS I live on Lewis too)

What happened to the beast from the east????I've been away from the models 36hrs???

I thought it was all in fine balance anyway with some uncertainty caused by this US storm?

Not exactly a mild transition either with a run of cool NWlys

I think so too Blasty. And because of it It looks like it will be a polar maritime direction. Don't get me wrong western areas will get snow. But realistically the beast is unlikely.

Looks very interesting modelling that ties in with the SSW and the teleconnections forecasts. Has the GFS finally got a grip on the cold scenarios or is it leading us up the garden path (again)?

That 12z GFS is sniffing something wintry with Nly outbreaks in 10days time. I am sure of it. Will it vanish in the next few runs or will it stay?

Longer range modelling all pointing towards SSW influenced pattern. Blocking to our NW low pressure to our east and NE. Nly outbreaks in abundance. Ok, it's not the beast from the east, but it will certainly be very cold and snowy for coastal areas with some outbreaks of snow for more inland areas at times. The beast from the east last Feb brought us Zilch snow to Western Scotland. Dry and cold Easterly winds. So it's our turn!