Ladyofthestorm

GFS going for another warming over Siberia. 7 days later the vortex splits with causing cold air to spill on from the North. Away out in lala land, however the caveat this winter is that it appears to Tue in with the tekeconnections .

Surely the gFS and s overcooking that low next week given the NAO forecast doesn't support it.

I don't often post on the forum,I just lurk and nod in agreement or mumble maybe not. I just carefully watch the models unravel the secrets. Looking at the ensembles we can clearly see the downward trend of the 850 hpa temps. Tick box. It looks s only at the end of the runs that they wildly yo-yo up and down as they fail to grasp the effects of the SSW. I'm also noting the ridging (amplification of higher pressure) around the UK and Atlantic .Atlantic is stalling and any attempt by the Atlantic to rattle in deep areas low pressure should be taken with a pinch of salt. This o

At last been watching these charts for the past 5 days,awaiting for the Atlantic to finally give up and give us some peace. Ensembles paint a picture unfolding. The 850 hpa charts are impressive for us, but how we get there is a different story.. the pressure charts, still messy and lacking agreement. A note of caution, the air temp GFS mean is running on the cold sideof the charts. Winter isn't done yet... Another March 2006 me thinks

Good morning everyone. I've been in hibernation waiting in vain hope for some drier colder weather.. lol. I've been watching with interest the models picking up this as we head into January. The wobble from the Jetstream from the models. The wobble as I call it will have a knock on effect on the weather we receive in January. Yes a mild SSW may take place, but I don't expect to see a reversal of winds etc. Colder weather and snow is going to come from the North or North West. I think ridges of high pressure from mid Atlantic interdespersed with deep NWly flows t

For goodness sake it's the CFS!!!

That basically covers everything....

So winter might be over if the charts are to be believed. I got the impression from the 18z GFS that it was low pressure followed by a ridge Sly winds toppler rinse and repeat. Not sure what to think other than the SSW got the wrong continent and it isn't happening for us this year.

I love your charts Knocker! It does indeed look like a similar setup to last winter (Nov, Dec, Jan). When the jet was having a Tango! It does look very wintry over the next few weeks at times. Every chart is pointing towards that trend.

Altnaharra I reckon .. -15C by the end of the night. Winds decreasing.

All roads lead to cold. . NW then NE. We should rename the thread . The hunt for mild .. it's gonna be a long time before we see double figures again.

Good effort! METO all the way. (PS I live on Lewis too)

What happened to the beast from the east????I've been away from the models 36hrs???

I thought it was all in fine balance anyway with some uncertainty caused by this US storm?

Not exactly a mild transition either with a run of cool NWlys