Ladyofthestorm

Unusual synoptics in the offing so we can't really find similar analogue years. I get that feeling the SSW event or two, will eventually split the PV and then weaken it. The Jetstream will buckle allowing initially a very cold Nly blast to a Scandi High bringing in an Easterly. The Atlantic once buckled will struggle to ramp up again

It looks to me with every model run the jetstream looks vulnerable to buckling and the Polar vortex equally so. I'm pretty confident that a significant cold spell is not a case of if but more when... My bets right in the beginning of the new year.

Same thing happened during the ice age. Don't take it to heart .

I completely agree with your sentiments. Things look like they sit on a knife edge synoptically. While most are looking to the East for a cold source of air, I am looking to the North. What was interesting was the ensembles for that time period. Naturally all over the place with a large spread, but the GFS operational 850pa temps are forecast actually warmer than the GEFS control mean and a significant number of seperate runs of the models. One to watch. Low pressure bringing in a Northern flow of air.

The GFS always has a default bias for being Atlantic driven. But mild Decembers are often associated with strong El Nino winter's influences 2014/15 being one of them off the top of my head. The Stratosphere in the high latitudes is volatile/the polar vortex vulnerable. The reason for all the rain in England is because is because the Jetstream has slipped south. I remember (I think it was Chino) suggesting that last winter snow was a precursor to what we could get this year. I think he is right. Something big is lurking around the corner it's just that the charts haven't picked it up yet.

Looking the ensembles. I really don't think we can draw any conclusion from it. Anything beyond day 10 is really purely speculation. The models don't know where to place the highs either. Though I suspect the GFS is overplaying the role of the Atlantic. The GEM is going for higher pressure over the UK. I suppose we can use this point as a benchmark to see which model verifies if any!!

Any chance that the GFS is overplaying that influence from the low. It seems to be thinking around for awfullong time.

GFS overplaying the role of the Atlantic, with a deep area of low pressure eroding into the high pushing it further east and north. EC keeps feeding in the Easterly influence, Russia is being put into the deep freeze. The 850s on the 0z operational run way above the mean and individual run Some runs AO suggest a return to neutral. But some emsemble members are hitting rock bottom. The Arctic polar vortex still looks very preturbed, with any arm of the cold potentially extending southwards. It is different this year. No doubt. Be patient. Winters coming.

Charts all over the place, ensembles sitting on the fence. Polar vortex disturbed. No wonder they can't agree. Little wonder the METO says there is no clear signal from the medium to long range. It's a case of when not if and how much.

It seems to me that the GFS is doing its classic dropping a trend and firing out a deep Atlantic low in the longer range. What's the chances(again) of it modelling back to the NEly in a few days time. The Ensembles runs in the longer run are all over the place and the GFS longer-term looks like an outlier. Do best ignored. Blocking to the north everyone. Europe is suddenly going into the freezer. And the NAO and AO are very negative. No Atlantic weather anytime soon.

It seems to me that both the ECM and GFS are leading all roads to a colder path, the the GFS sending Polar air our way from the NE and the Nly. And the ECM preferring to bring Europe into the freezer first then us . That high pressure block to the North of us would be great news for cold winter loving peeps who are getting an early treat in mid November. Big changes are afoot as we say goodbye to this horrid wet yucky sunless autumn. The Atlantic has been effectively shut off. Blocking to our North present. Whether we get big dumpings of snow and is another question.

The GFS 0z is beginning to sniff something very special towards the end of the runs. Interesting times ahead for December.

The ensembles are all over the place. Barely get consensus at 5 days put.

I agree with you Blasty. And I think it will be like a switch too. The polar vortex looks weak.

What's the LIA footprint Blasty?