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dragan

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  1. gfs, indicate a much cooler period coming up, this followed by a lifting of temps to near or above average with the usual souther westerly pattern
  2. temps still look around average for the next 8-10 days, which given what we’ve had, will feel chilly.
  3. models this morning don’t seem to indicate anything other than average to SLIGHTLY below average temp wise, drier than has been of late.......still haven’t seen a frost yet, i may scrape a 1c or 0c IF skies clear over next 10 days
  4. latest gfs suggests weather cooling down, before becoming ‘average’ later on. It will no doubt feel chillier than at present, 160m in Eastern Scotland, and it’s 13c !
  5. i hope when people say ‘this model is better than that one’ it’s because they have analysed what they predict, then check what the actual weather was on the day.........instead of the ‘best’ model being the one that shows cold...
  6. gfs12z more of the same. after brief high pressure, we see weather coming in the from west/southwest , quite windy at time too. temps around average
  7. well your far more experienced than me and it’s just my observation, but running through there is a westerly air flow just about every frame (not necessarily wet)
  8. according to gfs 06z , after a brief flirt with high pressure, it’s more or less an onslaught from the west.....again🤨
  9. agreed, think it would also be colder away from the east coast too, western areas with clear skies may benefit if it’s frost you want
  10. yeh your right, although odds on that westerly airstream wins out
  11. then at 192, 216, 240 it’s back to average temps and weather west to east
  12. lows to the west, high to the east means we are sucking up air from the south, although not overly mild, it will keep temps around average (this is later frames of gfs)
  13. regardless of partial graduation, ultimately we end up with a mild south easterly.......not all easterlies are equal according to Jack, and you can see that in evidence
  14. onto what?? The fact they disagree far out...? I mean, it could end up with a cold spell......but far far far more likely it will end up ‘average’ as they are showing. Uncertainty is more likely to = some sort of westerly influence......because thats what we get 80/90% of the time
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