Kirkcaldy Weather

Yeah just a tad anomalous Numerous high wind gusts particularly in mountain regions These high rain and snow amounts haven't been all bad news though with a needed boost for reservoirs and some snowpacks running a few months ahead of usual Arizona getting very impressive amounts in this setup

Cambrian Thanks for this post @Cambrian I'd like to highlight a few points with the 1st being the tendency for Scandinavian trough developments, this is a common feature of El Ninò using these from some of my recent posts And focusing in on February tendencies with El Ninò You have no idea how much I appreciate your optimism as my interest in this thread overall was dwindling somewhat with endless pages of moany vibes which should really be for the moans thread but hey ho, I get the despondency of those yet to see snow however there HAVE been events fitting of winter during both winter months thus far. We continue to see excellent representation of exactly what you'd expect given recent, current and probable upcoming MJO progression Taking the CFS weeklies as a great example the surface temperatures are again corresponding with what is common with El Ninò overall & El Ninò in February Accompanying precipitation anoms are also where you'd expect to be in Feb With a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation there will be cold outbreaks within the Northern Hemisphere and given these are stronger values than both previous events I wouldnt be surprised if the conditions are also a bit colder overall. Factor in the +PNA its what I'd expect

Ballater is the place to be this time possibility of anywhere upto a foot to come still Webcams - Craigendarroch Owners' Club WWW.CRAIGENDARROCH.COM River Dee at Ballater Ballater Golf Club Deeside Gliding Club Cairngorms National Park Cameras Snow Gate Cameras Braemar Snow Gate Glenshee Ski Centre Lecht Ski Centre | Nest VIDEO.NEST.COM Streaming live #caughtonNestCam

Gonna be a fascinating watch this, on the southern end we've got another significant flash flood risk spanning multiple days and states (plus further potential tornadic events) even into the Carolinas with many possible outcomes with regards to snow along the Northwest and northern flanks with the GFS going all in on a major event into Northeast states

Cheers for getting this years thread running with excellent contributions @WeatherArc I've been covering the setups going into classic El Ninò 500hpa evolutions and this has managed to give a few tornadoes out in California Some ratings on other recent tors and hail statistics Tonight's events

Lovely patterns in line with the teleconnections continuing to materialise with a great setup for some significant snowy cyclonic developments from February 11th through at least 1 week thereafter as low pressure from southwestern America / Mexico moves Northeastwards with a track as mentioned previously through Northern and Northeast America and particularly Newfoundland and Nova Scotia Heading through week 3 of February remains the next significant setup for potential wintry conditions with a building high in Greenland and retrograding Scandinavian trough as energy connections begin with the trough in the Atlantic

Views on Lanark cams showing what I was generally expecting with snow falling but ground temperatures being a bit unsupportive for laying snow. Though snowstorms can have fairly large differences in snow depths across short distances which I'd not be shocked seeing repeated. /images/logo-subtitle.jpg Discover Lanark WWW.LANARK.CO.UK Explore our new website and discover all that Lanark, New Lanark and the Falls of Clyde have to offer for visitors and locals.

With the flow starting to switch into the East this gets some north sea convection going as can be seen on the radar between Stonehaven and Aberdeen, a cracking view of this here currently.. North Webcam - Seacroft Marine Consultants WWW.SEACROFTMARINE.COM

Quite an intriguing storm system this and I did always say the orientation would be a big player as it usually is when looking at snowstorms, generally the more elongated cyclones are better with cylindrical being less so and looks as if we'll get a combo this time. The ground temperatures also tell a great story We see during the approach of the storm ground temperatures are roughly 0 to 1C. With the #1 ingredient the Dewpoint these start the day below freezing for many of us and itl be a gradual movement to less favourable These give an idea that many of us could have snow falling but having a tricky time laying, then more of a wintry mix. Another factor is the wind, hence why IMO it still deserves to be reffered to as a snowstorm with a large swathe of the precip being snow and gusts being such as .. Significant waves being drawn into the East Coast too Check the windchill values some parts with at least 3 consecutive days of sub zero windchill and as the storm moves north some places nearing minus double digits Normally one of the key parameters I watch for snowfall is the 528 dam but interesting in this storm it actually isn't present during most of the snow. The actual isotherm tells a story fitting what I've discussed as the snow height gradually increases. With snowstorms even tweaks in parameters which may seem small often have large affects, I say pretty much all of us are probable to see snow falling just a question how much can lay given the ground temperatures and winds though again all of us cannot discount a dusting at the least. Heading through the remainder of Feb week 2 and into week 3 it's looking lovely with the building of high pressure likely some good sunshine on offer as covered in my post yesterday the wet conditions become focused into Italy and the Ionian, Adriatic and Mediterranean regions as our current storms energy transfers into a cut off low. Though this is not the main period of interest with regard to further wintry conditions its not without interest, though the 850hpa temperatures are probable of being above average The flow will be switching toward more of an easterly which could give below average surface temps during this timeframe With continuing retrograding into week 3 of February the blocking heads northwest to Greenland and the Atlantic and Scandinavian trough become our focus. Moisture plume w Jet Interaction from the Caribbean has begun

Very detailed outlook discussing the dynamics from this point and extending for the majority of February 🌨🌨🌨️️🌩

Super amount of work went into this one 🌨🌨

Longer post showing the dynamics at play leading into week 2 of February [and beyond] Starting with developments for the rest of February week 1 into the start of week 2 as mentioned in my post here "I do expect we'll have the PNA getting more into a negative setup during week 1 of Feb into the first part of week 2 with feedback of MJO phase 6" 'With the influence of more of a -PNA paired to MJO phase 6 I'd not be shocked seeing potential for a storm as the associated troughing crosses the UK between February 8th > 12th'' To understand the dynamics at play for the next major event for the UK / Ireland we need to look at events which have taken place over in Newfoundland and in particular Nova Scotia This is the same cyclone which will come into the UK and Ireland through the February 8th - 12th period. The influencing section of the Jet Stream for this system can be tracked from the Caribbean Island Chain into Portugal and the UK On the Northern and Northwest flanks of the snowstorm we'll have the potential for significant amounts of snow, I wouldn't be one bit shocked seeing areas within the region of a foot of snow perhaps a bit more with current signals of these totals into the Pennines perhaps parts of Scotland, Ireland also a possible area of Northern Wales. "Also increased threat of flash flooding into Portugal and extending across southern Europe in association with an increasingly strengthening Jet Stream in this region also within that timeframe." As southern parts of the UK remain in a milder sector of the storm and connected to the section of the Jet Stream mentioned above the flash flood risk could extend into England perhaps Wales with a chance of thunderstorms. This flash flood threat looks to also move into Morocco places such as Casablanca and Rabat with some snow as it moves further inland. During this timeframe we also see the Maritimes High extending into the US East Coast feedback from the trend to more of a negative PNA and MJO phases 5 and particularly 6 As the UK storm and associated troughing gradually moves East it will see quite a rapid weakening as an increasingly strengthening area of high pressure begins to develop further to it's east. This will force the trough energy southwards and this becomes a cut off low into Italy and the Adriatic, Inonian and Mediterranean also regions a bit east of here. This leads into my discussions from my post here "Looking to the 2nd and latter half of February with the MJO currently being in a phase 7 for the last days of January This gives the following feedback From my post on Thursday which is linked above ''With continuing phase 6 starting to transition into phase 7 and pairing to a re emerging and strengthening +PNA as we get toward and past Mid February there will be lots of tantalising charts'' During this timeframe we'll also see a VERY impressive negative Arctic Oscillation with values perhaps exceeding those which preceeded the severe cold outbreaks of December 2023 and January 2024. During February week 2 the 500hpa setups will begin to retrograde taking us into the MJO phase 7 patterns with a retrograding trough moving Southwest through Scandinavia and potential for further snowstorms toward Nova Scotia - Newfoundland and from Canada > Maritimes through Northern and Northeast America, also developments in line with the +PNA of cyclonic systems from the Gulf remain a possibility. Full sequence Also during week 3 of February the ongoing stratospheric warming looks set to keep intensifying with possibilities for a 2nd reversal of zonal winds this winter I first discussed the liklihood of stratospheric warming in my post here

As the Gulf Cyclone moved east northeast it produced a plethora of tornadic supercells with a significant tor in Valdosta Georgia

Quite a significant flash flood event for Northwest > West Scotland over the next day or so due to the boundary of cold and mild air which creates a bit of an Atmospheric river. Little update on the snowstorm / blizzard, still coming in for this timeframe and many outputs still looking tasty

Further excellent representation continues to frequent the expected timeframes. Following on from my post here "As things stand we're looking at at least two weeks of the MJO being active in the Pacific roughly January 24/25 through January 7th but the extended data is supportive ATM of a 3rd week still prominent within the Pacific Taking the progress into / nearer Mid January " Again the CFS has performed best and my overall thoughts above are generally how it's going, there is an interesting trend over the past few days between the CFS and GEFS suggesting a significant slowing of the MJOs progression out of the Pacific, i suspect this could have a bit of the stratospheric warmings influence here and also keeps the trend of said warming to continue further beyond mid February which is already being suggested within multiple modelling. Ignore the lines crossing the page must be erranoues data. We'll continue seeing patterns which are favourable precursors for continuing stratospheric warming too. C3-2, C2-2 & C3-3 in particular. Say it again EL NINÒ

Definitely need to bring this out again for this month's setups ezgif-2-0dc481fd11.mp4

From my recent post in the Scottish thread ''With the influence of more of a -PNA paired to MJO phase 6 I'd not be shocked seeing potential for a storm as the associated troughing crosses the UK between February 8th > 12th" Exciting scenarios appearing within this timeframe, dependant on orientation of the low(s) but definitely potential here for a snowstorm - blizzard within the UK / possibly Ireland. Also increased threat of flash flooding into Portugal and extending across southern Europe in association with an increasingly strengthening Jet Stream in this region also within that timeframe. With continuing phase 6 starting to transition into phase 7 and pairing to a re emerging and strengthening +PNA as we get toward and past Mid February there will be lots of tantalising charts Absolutely Textbook El Ninò, simply stunning 500hpa evolutions Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5027650

From my recent post in the Scottish thread ''With the influence of more of a -PNA paired to MJO phase 6 I'd not be shocked seeing potential for a storm as the associated troughing crosses the UK between February 8th > 12th" Exciting scenarios appearing within this timeframe, dependant on orientation of the low(s) but definitely potential here for a snowstorm - blizzard within the UK / possibly Ireland. Also increased threat of flash flooding into Portugal and extending across southern Europe in association with an increasingly strengthening Jet Stream in this region also within that timeframe. With continuing phase 6 starting to transition into phase 7 and pairing to a re emerging and strengthening +PNA as we get toward and past Mid February there will be lots of tantalising charts Absolutely Textbook El Ninò, simply stunning 500hpa evolutions

Exciting scenarios appearing within this timeframe, dependant on orientation of the low(s) but definitely potential here for a snowstorm - blizzard within the UK / possibly Ireland. Also keeping a watch for increased risk of flash flooding impacts for Portugal which could extend across Southern Europe as an increasingly strong Jet Stream moves across the region also in this time period.

Excellent Models did become confident on Newfoundland doing particularly well from this snowstorm We'll see 2 simultaneous cyclones bringing an increased liklihood of flash flooding, as the first which is currently coming into the west coast begins to traverse southeastwards it brings a significant flash flood threat into the Gulf States and we get our classic El Ninò setup / appearance. With the Gulf cyclone I expect significant flash flood impacts between February 3rd and February 9th with this gradually moving east Northeast, might be a chance for a transition from rain to wintry precip - snow on the northwest flank as the cyclone approches the Carolina coast however this could also remain just offshore. Some extreme amounts currently shown for Feb 4th somewhere in Louisianna such as Pilottown etc

2.3C and 100.8mm please

Wind warnings out for tomorrow certainly strongest across the Western Isles pushing into the Northwest probably over toward the Great Glen with somewhat of a weakening as the front moves southeast across Scotland though still gusts topping 50+ mph. Nice posts by @Jo Farrow as storm Ingunn develops and heads into Scandinavia, this is feedback from recent MJO phase progression which can be seen with phases 4 , 5 and 6 in particular for January following this cold front we'll have some colder air coming in again most significant for the Northwest & North with some snow for the Northwest Not sure who in here has read my recent posts ''Following on from this as the preceeding MJO phases input begins to feed into the setups from week 4 of Jan onward the above remains true with further developments. Looks like this initial cut off low will develop into a +PNA during the very end of Jan" As the positive PNA feedback progresses eastward pairing with the MJO patterns I've covered in depth, a +PNA does have a tendency of being supportive for Atlantic ridging / blocking which moves in the direction of Greenland and in connection to a trough further east ie Scandinavia, Baltic regions which gives a doorway for something cooler > colder from the north.'' 'Though I'm not putting a massive amount of emphasis into exact timeframes from my POV ATM it's looking favoured for this by approx February 4th / 5th and starting to see a possible redux around 1 week later ie 11th / 12th February.' I do expect we'll have the PNA getting more into a negative setup during week 1 of Feb into the first part of week 2 with feedback of MJO phase 6 With the influence of more of a -PNA paired to MJO phase 6 I'd not be shocked seeing potential for a storm as the associated troughing crosses the UK between February 8th > 12th As mentioned in my posts lately heading into the 2nd half of February quite the tasty setups loom with a re emerging positive PNA pairing to MJO phases 6 and 7 Truly spoilt for choice in February we've got the ongoing stratospheric warming which increases in strength during half 1 of Feb incoming too