Kirkcaldy Weather

February 21

Lots going on.

As the initial deep cyclone moves in through tomorrow there will be a few developments, along the southern flank there will be spawning of additional cyclonic centres thanks to a strong Jet Stream which already broke records when it was situated over Northeastern America

During the initial phase of cyclogenisis the newly developing cyclonic Centre running through central and South Southeast England will have 2 zones of convection with one being particularly prominent and linear in form... possible Line Echo Wave Pattern / Squall and additional thundery cells could develop ahead of this line.

There might be some flash flooding within this.

During tomorrow I also wouldn't be shocked seeing flash flood reports across France.

Into Friday this develops into 3 cyclonic centres with the one from the UK undergoing rapid cyclogenisis as it moves over the North Sea and swings into Scandinavia as a deep snowstorm which links to the original main cyclonic Centre which is part of the Tropospheric Vortex. We also see another cyclonic centre developing into the Alps as a snowstorm too.

As the linear convective activities clear into the North Sea the thickness level across Ireland and UK lowers with a plethora of wintry precipitation and snow even at low levels with laying snow a distinct liklihood particularly across Scotland Thundersnow opportunities likely too.

For the next developments we need to go back to the low which brought flooding rains across Florida.

This same cyclone will deliver further snow in Newfoundland

This same cyclone will move over the Atlantic high and become joined with the original cyclone / section of the Tropospheric Vortex North northwest of the UK this will move toward Ireland the UK and Europe by Feb 25th / 26th.

During this timeframe the Alps snowstorm will be directed Northeastwards with current guidance of a snowstorm(s) ranging from Denmark and especially Sweden to other Baltic countries such as Latvia and Finland.

The new system moving into Ireland UK and Europe could bring new flash flood risks from Southern England, Portugal, Northwest and North Spain into France once more... track and hpa dependant possible gales too.

As the high to the east builds into a high in Scandinavia this will connect to the Atlantic High giving the cut off low by February 26th - 27th.

This connection will be brief at this stage with new trough developments close to the UK & Ireland During the last days of February into the beginning of March

During week 1 of March with further influence from phase 7 of the MJO this could see further connections between the Canadian Maritimes Blocking and the Block to our East Northeast with potential this evolves into a Greenland High a la

February 21

Following on from this post and honing in on the 22nd - 23rd to begin with.

I've discussed in the past there are multiple pathways to cool - cold conditions in the UK and this will excellently fit into the cool - cold STORMY category, we've got the continuing influence of a strong positive North Atlantic Oscillation pairing with a strengthening positive Arctic Oscillation which will see the prior US snowstorm track into the UK as a very deep trough with means being indicative of the region of 960-970 hpa being reasonable estimates though lower pressure readings at the core of the trough cannot be discounted.

This will be a section of the Tropospheric Vortex.

With these setups it's a case of everything and the kitchen sink Thunder hail gales where the isobars are tighter and with increasingly Lowering thickness snow though being most prominent over high ground will mix in at lower levels

From the 24th current data shows this trough will gradually weaken as it moves south across Europe likely becoming a cut off low into Italy and the Mediterranean.

There then becomes a few discrepancies with how quickly we see a link with the increasingly strengthening high pressure into the Maritimes and Eastern US [strongly negative PNA] and the blocking to our East Northeast > MJO phase 6 / 7.

This is a combination of teleconnective feedback we haven't had at any point during winter 2023>24 with this being the strongest negative PNA since October

Focusing on developments in the stratosphere too, overall I'm really happy with how my post below has went with the precursors doing a great job again

Reversal of zonal winds at 10hpa
Displacement event at 10hpa
Split event at 50hpa
Split event at 100hpa

With further precursor patterns there are already signals of new stratospheric warming heading into March

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5039236

February 21

matty40s Yes totally expected, here are the wave heights from the GFS

Having a cyclone at 949hpa in that region which has been consistent in the modelling for an extended amount of time.

February 20

Nice looking setup this which I've discussed in detail previously

Great look to this cyclone which will provide excellent representation of convective streamer banding with quite a good availability of CAPE considering its still February into Ireland the UK but especially France, The English Channel, Bay of Biscay and a secondary area moving toward the Tyrrhenian and Italy.

February 18

Following on from this post and honing in on the 22nd - 23rd to begin with.

I've discussed in the past there are multiple pathways to cool - cold conditions in the UK and this will excellently fit into the cool - cold STORMY category, we've got the continuing influence of a strong positive North Atlantic Oscillation pairing with a strengthening positive Arctic Oscillation which will see the prior US snowstorm track into the UK as a very deep trough with means being indicative of the region of 960-970 hpa being reasonable estimates though lower pressure readings at the core of the trough cannot be discounted.

This will be a section of the Tropospheric Vortex.

With these setups it's a case of everything and the kitchen sink Thunder hail gales where the isobars are tighter and with increasingly Lowering thickness snow though being most prominent over high ground will mix in at lower levels

From the 24th current data shows this trough will gradually weaken as it moves south across Europe likely becoming a cut off low into Italy and the Mediterranean.

There then becomes a few discrepancies with how quickly we see a link with the increasingly strengthening high pressure into the Maritimes and Eastern US [strongly negative PNA] and the blocking to our East Northeast > MJO phase 6 / 7.

This is a combination of teleconnective feedback we haven't had at any point during winter 2023>24 with this being the strongest negative PNA since October

Focusing on developments in the stratosphere too, overall I'm really happy with how my post below has went with the precursors doing a great job again

Reversal of zonal winds at 10hpa
Displacement event at 10hpa
Split event at 50hpa
Split event at 100hpa

With further precursor patterns there are already signals of new stratospheric warming heading into March

February 17

February 16

Another system running through over the next few days giving further accumulations stretching into the Northeast and I'm closely watching the systems which have been consistently showing in roughly 1 weeks time around the 22nd - 26th as somewhere in the Northeast could get significant totals from these though exact track still causing discrepancies.

February 16

As the MJO influence from the Pacific moves East across South America this will give a boost to cyclonic development which *could have potential historic impacts.

Upon doing some research there has only ever been 1 cyclone to reach hurricane strength classification in this region of the South Atlantic which was cyclone / Hurricane Catarina in March 2004.

Hurricane Catarina - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

Though there are also questions re prior cyclones before Catarina

"Theories concerning infrequency of occurrence[edit]

It was initially thought that tropical cyclones did not develop within the South Atlantic.[1] Very strong vertical wind shear in the troposphere is considered a deterrent.[2] The Intertropical Convergence Zone drops one to two degrees south of the equator,[3] not far enough from the equator for the Coriolis force to significantly aid development. Water temperatures in the tropics of the southern Atlantic are cooler than those in the tropical north Atlantic.[4]

Although they are rare, during April 1991 the United States' National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that a tropical cyclone had developed over the Eastern South Atlantic.[1][5] In subsequent years, a few systems were suspected to have the characteristics needed to be classified as a tropical cyclone, including in March 1994 and January 2004.[6][7] During March 2004, an extratropical cyclone formally transitioned into a tropical cyclone and made landfall on Brazil, after becoming a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale. While the system was threatening the Brazilian state of Santa Catarina, a newspaper used the headline "Furacão Catarina", which was originally presumed to mean "furacão (hurricane) threatening (Santa) Catarina (the state)".[1] After international presses started monitoring the system, "Hurricane Catarina" has formally been adopted.

At the Sixth WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VI) in 2006, it was questioned if any subtropical or tropical cyclones had developed within the South Atlantic before Catarina.[7] It was noted that suspect systems had developed in January 1970, March 1994, January 2004, March 2004, May 2004, February 2006, and March 2006.[7] It was also suggested that an effort should be made to locate any possible systems using satellite imagery and synoptic data; however, it was noted that this effort may be hindered by the lack of any geostationary imagery over the basin before 1966.[7] A study was subsequently performed and published during 2012, which concluded that there had been 63 subtropical cyclones in the Southern Atlantic between 1957 and 2007.[8] During January 2009, a subtropical storm developed in the basin, and in March 2010, a tropical storm developed, which was named Anita by the Brazilian public and private weather services.[9][10] In 2011, the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center started to assign names to tropical and subtropical cyclones that develop within its area of responsibility, to the west of 20°W, when they have sustained wind speeds of at least 65 km/h (40 mph).[11]"

South Atlantic tropical cyclone - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

Both the ICON and GFS currently model this cyclone intensifying to 988hpa and 987hpa respectively

Other models such as the GEM are much more Conservative

GFS 06z also trended less intense

None of the models currently go for a landfall however this cannot be ruled out.

ECM 00z perilously close to a landfall

February 15

Leading onto my post above.

Some really nice showcasing of the MJO phase 6 feedback during February + El Ninò February's.

Obviously going to the very extended outputs we're still waiting to see the next MJO progression which is currently too noisy between all models really and the behaviour of the North Atlantic Oscillation and PNA though there really isn't anything surprising here given recent teleconnective evolutions.

February 15

February 15

On 08/02/2024 at 21:01, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Lovely patterns in line with the teleconnections continuing to materialise with a great setup for some significant snowy cyclonic developments from February 11th through at least 1 week thereafter as low pressure from southwestern America / Mexico moves Northeastwards with a track as mentioned previously through Northern and Northeast America and particularly Newfoundland and Nova Scotia

February 14

February 14

Wanted to do this post which will be addressing those who continue to disregard us who use the teleconnective aspects.

A few crucial areas here which have been prominent for weeks.

The Stratospheric Warming - Sudden Stratospheric Warming didn't 'fail' I've already shown the timeframe in which this reversal of zonal winds at 10hpa DID occur I'll link that post below.
The MJO progression didn't 'fail' or become 'unsupportive' those who regularly follow my posts can gleam that the MJO and resultant patterns have been in line with expectations.
Winter 2023>2024 hasn't 'failed' or been a 'bust'
There hasn't been any occasion of being led up a 'garden path'
The teleconnections as a whole haven't 'failed' or been 'misleading'

Latest data on the El Ninò temperatures are in at +2.2C which takes the 2023-2024 event into Super Ninò status. (Credit JMA)

December 2023 monthly heights

January 2024 heights

Typical heights during a strong El Ninò

The warm and cold episodes have correlated excellently in line with the Arctic Oscillation

Leading on from this post

'We'll continue seeing patterns which link to El Ninò throughout March and I'd favour potentially the first few weeks or so of April, following that time it's a gradual move into ENSO Neutral with some themes continuing of heading into La Ninà by late spring and particularly Summer 2024.'

Doing a VERY extended outlook.

We see the transition from El Ninò >> La Ninà again everything pretty much as expected of course I'm showing an 8 - 11 MONTH period here so will it resemble this 100% probably not to a T but overall good representation.

Note the precip changes which are particularly noticeable in Australia and the Southern United States

This shown very well globally on CANSIPS

This switch also displayed by looking at the 200hpa U-winds

And with the 500hpa heights

And of course one of the most important the Sea Surface temperatures

Whilst the MEI is one part of the ENSO spectrum we see that this Ninò has been running effectively parallel to 2009-2010 [also 1991-92 to some extent] which adds credence to that being my #1 analogue through this winter and the hurricane analogues continue showing this.

Returning to February we've got a couple of significant 500hpa evolutions to watch as the same cyclonic system which became the significant winter storm across multiple US states, this looks to be the main influence across the UK & Ireland by the 22nd & 23rd.

Goes with expectations with a strengthening positive NAO.

Following on from this I'm seeing a trend for a possible transition into yet another of the precursor setups for further stratospheric warming.

Current timing looks to be the very last days of February into March week 1.

Thanks for reading. KW

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5037585

February 14

Wanted to do this post which will be addressing those who continue to disregard us who use the teleconnective aspects.

A few crucial areas here which have been prominent for weeks.

The Stratospheric Warming - Sudden Stratospheric Warming didn't 'fail' I've already shown the timeframe in which this reversal of zonal winds at 10hpa DID occur I'll link that post below.
The MJO progression didn't 'fail' or become 'unsupportive' those who regularly follow my posts can gleam that the MJO and resultant patterns have been in line with expectations.
Winter 2023>2024 hasn't 'failed' or been a 'bust'
There hasn't been any occasion of being led up a 'garden path'
The teleconnections as a whole haven't 'failed' or been 'misleading'

Latest data on the El Ninò temperatures are in at +2.2C which takes the 2023-2024 event into Super Ninò status. (Credit JMA)

December 2023 monthly heights

January 2024 heights

Typical heights during a strong El Ninò

The warm and cold episodes have correlated excellently in line with the Arctic Oscillation

Leading on from this post

'We'll continue seeing patterns which link to El Ninò throughout March and I'd favour potentially the first few weeks or so of April, following that time it's a gradual move into ENSO Neutral with some themes continuing of heading into La Ninà by late spring and particularly Summer 2024.'

Doing a VERY extended outlook.

We see the transition from El Ninò >> La Ninà again everything pretty much as expected of course I'm showing an 8 - 11 MONTH period here so will it resemble this 100% probably not to a T but overall good representation.

Note the precip changes which are particularly noticeable in Australia and the Southern United States

This shown very well globally on CANSIPS

This switch also displayed by looking at the 200hpa U-winds

And with the 500hpa heights

And of course one of the most important the Sea Surface temperatures

Whilst the MEI is one part of the ENSO spectrum we see that this Ninò has been running effectively parallel to 2009-2010 [also 1991-92 to some extent] which adds credence to that being my #1 analogue through this winter and the hurricane analogues continue showing this.

Returning to February we've got a couple of significant 500hpa evolutions to watch as the same cyclonic system which became the significant winter storm across multiple US states, this looks to be the main influence across the UK & Ireland by the 22nd & 23rd.

Goes with expectations with a strengthening positive NAO.

Following on from this I'm seeing a trend for a possible transition into yet another of the precursor setups for further stratospheric warming.

Current timing looks to be the very last days of February into March week 1.

Thanks for reading. KW

February 13

Impressive wave break event this, whilst it may not look much on pressure charts its gonna be fueled by an impressive plume by February standards which will bring temperatures of between 15C > 17C into Southeast England on the 15th.

Another Wave Break event by the 17th - 18th which sends the low into Italy.

February 13

"With a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation there will be cold outbreaks within the Northern Hemisphere and given these are stronger values than both previous events I wouldnt be surprised if the conditions are also a bit colder overall."

Here comes one of those cold outbreaks as a high from Canada moves southwards which can be seen with the MJO phase 7 data

Impressive temperature anomalies associated with this even into Texas and Mexico, will we see record cold I certainly wouldn't rule out records being tied / broken in some areas.

As the very active El Ninò setups continue we've also got a snowmaking system heading through the Great Lakes possibly giving a top up into the Northeast too, and another dual cyclonic setup with further flash flood risks in California, Pacific Northwest, Gulf States particularly Florida and into the Caribbean. Further significant snow for the Sierras also.

The southwards moving Canadian high will transition toward the typical -PNA and influence from MJO phase 6, this currently looks to occur by February 20th with strength and duration of the high TBD.

Across the other end of the Northern Hemisphere we see a 2nd Cold air outbreak which will descend across Asia bringing significant > extreme cold anomalies and significant > extreme snow.

February 12

February 12

2 flashes 2 rumbles and one was in the forth decently close really

February 12

Proper wintry radar on the go, thought I'd heard a Rumble there and a bit of hail mixed in.

This cam about to be plastered

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February 12

Wanted to do a follow On from my post here as it carries importance why we are seeing the 500hpa evolutions upcoming.

''We might have a brief re entry of phase 6 during week 1 of February though there is no complete agreement for this, however it's relatively similar to the setups currently materialising should it occur."

This is an occasion where the MJO Obs are of great value as there can be differences when solely focusing on the model predictions and I do tend to trust the OBS in these situations.

We see that we did briefly go into phase 6 in February week 1

Very much in line with expectations with the typical El Ninò storm track which extends into the Atlantic this in turn will see further Rossby Wave Breaks which have potential to bring flash flooding as the wave break low forms and further significant snow in multiple countries.

The positive NAO also playing into these setups nicely, these are typical temperatures with a positive NAO but give fairly good representation of the positions of low and high pressure

This also shows the strong ridging and high pressure developments into the UK which connects into the negative PNA with further developments of high pressure to the East of USA and the Maritimes.

February 11

February 11

Fascinating event this, with the last influence of the snowstorm which has split into multiple cyclonic centres with one swinging back in for the Northwest and West of Scotland GFS and GEM give a good idea definitely potential here for significant accumulations it's mainly across higher routes but I'd say we can't rule out some mixing down to lower levels and Scandinavia and Iceland getting possibly serious amounts especially as these depths are occuring within 1-2 days

As the next influence from an Atlantic cyclone transfers into a Rossby Wave Break by Mid February there could be a risk of flash flooding moving into Scotland as the wave break low pushes in, still a few differentials exactly where the wave break occurs which will influence where the low position occurs

Note the 1st Rossby Wave Break has occured by this timeframe and the low sits between the Mediterranean and Aegean.

2nd Rossby Wave Break mid February sending another wave break cut off low into Italy and the Mediterranean. Its interesting as this is causing discrepancies with regards to how strong the associated high pressure develops into Scandinavia

This brings more big falls of snow into the same areas in Scandinavia and the potential flash flooding within the UK.

During week 3 of February still looking at a bit of drier weather as a ridge and connecting high pressure from Spain through the UK into Greenland and Alaska.

The period from week 3 into week 4 of February has always been the next point of interest for possible wintry conditions it does seem this is more -AO driven initially then we look for the NAO switching more negative plus how fast and at what amplitude the MJO begins moving across the west Hemisphere and Africa at.

With a retrograding blocking high pairing to an increasingly negative North Atlantic Oscillation and retrograding trough into Scandinavia winter definitely ain't over

February 10

Arizona doing excellent from this pattern

As covered in my post here the same cyclone which brought incredible amounts across Nova Scotia also became a snowstorm across the UK and Ireland

I also discussed the liklihood this same cyclone would give snow in Morocco

February 10

On 23/01/2024 at 18:12, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

From the last days of Jan through week 1 of Feb this will have a significantly wet anomaly for California up the US west coast into the Pacific Northwest and moving into the Southwest States and Mexico. Some of the precip will fall as snow in higher terrains such as the Sierras.

Yeah just a tad anomalous

Numerous high wind gusts particularly in mountain regions

These high rain and snow amounts haven't been all bad news though with a needed boost for reservoirs and some snowpacks running a few months ahead of usual

Arizona getting very impressive amounts in this setup

On 06/02/2024 at 14:34, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Also increased threat of flash flooding into Portugal and extending across southern Europe in association with an increasingly strengthening Jet Stream in this region also within that timeframe."

As southern parts of the UK remain in a milder sector of the storm and connected to the section of the Jet Stream mentioned above the flash flood risk could extend into England perhaps Wales with a chance of thunderstorms. This flash flood threat looks to also move into Morocco places such as Casablanca and Rabat with some snow as it moves further inland.

February 10

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