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Everything posted by Kirkcaldy Weather
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Awesome job with the analysis @Ruzzi Currently we see the flow has veered to a northerly hence the shower activity mostly situated in the North Sea So what's the setup as we head to the weekend There's a developing low forming in the North Sea, initially this will be a dual centred low With one of the centres meandering about in the NE corner That will help generate further showers though they'll not be purely of snow as we have a period of higher dewpoints However the iso is 528 dam and below plus 850 temps are between -6 to -8 akin to today Unfortunately the wrf 2km has been a bit flakey on updating and no 12z output but still we see the possibility for further accumulating snow That's the first thing we need the models to be sure on exactly how much the low deepens and its track which currently the consensus has been coming onshore to the East of Scotland but plenty time until we get a high amount of certainty. Saturday might have a streamer as the flow pivots to an easterly
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Wanted to look back at my previous outlook and with MJO progression into other phases get my new outlook done A few quotes I made 'overlying agreement still favours blocking' 'These would see the ridging / block steadily head for Greenland' 'Dates I'd look for those patterns... 3rd / 4th of December ' With phase 7 for November we'd expect troughing dropping through Scandinavia And following phase 8 November we see the low roughly to the south of the UK and flow coming from the east Phase 8 composites for December see the Greenland High and the troughing in the Atlantic I'd expect a resurgence or continuation of this pattern going forward especially around the 15th GEM 0z ENSEMBLE MEAN We next arrived at December Phase 1 ... this pattern ain't being shifted for a good time yet folks Pretty incredible we could have tropical storm formation in December I know it has happened previously but not since 2013, Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV 'A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in the next couple of days. By Thursday night or Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting subtropical or tropical development of the system.'
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I was trying to remember which iconic snowy winter it was that had northeasterlys, they really are a rare breed I'm relatively confident it was 2009/2010 We're getting signs this could be in a similar style of snowy surprises that appear frequently Not to be sworn ATM for exact location but this showing late Wed / early Thursday Summary for this winter mibby
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A lot of reasons to think this won't be a short episode of blocking & below avg temperatures... GEM Ens MJO is on the move through a number of phases at the mo I'll dive deeper into that once the dates are concrete but a quick peek is roughly similar to that of the GEM Ens Might be talking about a polar low in a few days too
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Nothing has changed tbh it's just how the low that currently looks like it'll try move toward the UK in some direction or another is what the models are really having a struggle with The 0z JMA was basically a jackpot run very snowy if it goes like this Note the clean phasing of the low that heads toward the UK and the troughing coming in from Scandinavia The GEFS mean quite useable too
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Wasn't fully sure if I would make a thread but I really do think it'll be a good idea, we never know it very well could be a weather setup we look back fondly to in future years. For any members coming back to the forum in time for winter and have missed the reasons for these developing synoptics here's all the key details I do my outlooks incorporating the MJO you can find my most recent ones here some quotes 'high focused through Scandinavia and also more blocking throughout the Arctic These would see the ridging / block steadily head for Greenland' And for the phase 6 associated part of my outlook .. 'Dates I'd look for those patterns... 3rd / 4th of December ' Leads me nicely to the latest 528 dam looks to come in on the eve of December 3rd and into 4th Nice 850s as a starting point The first streamers getting going and with the 528 dam they'll be getting more and more wintry Following this we get the Greenland High developing and flow starts going toward a Northeasterly, not quite been pinpointed what that leads to though I'm focused on and definitely not ruling out a proper easterly setting in Incredible mean on the 18z GEFS I've highlighted the mega Greenland High... honestly that's so rare to see on a mean chart at 1050hpa also the negatively tilted atlantic troughing which is a crucial element often present in our most awesome snowy patterns and the flow as discussed above
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Kirkcaldy Weather replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Catching up with the 00zs and 6z outputs A nice amount of the GEM ensembles get that brilliant easterly flow in, for those of us wanting the most snow showers / streamers to develop an easterly will be best (the Northeasterly will still have showers some of snow developing but they can be quite a bit drier than easterlies) GEM with a superb mean too, its not often you can make out the negatively tilted trough on these especially in the mid - longer ranges as with the means tending to be a bit flatter than the actual outcome comparing to the latest beast in February 2021 number of similarities Quite like the look to the JMA also -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Kirkcaldy Weather replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
OK I'll air my views on the 2010 saga Try and imagine before 2010 (also 2009) high chances you wouldn't have thought the low temperatures and snowfalls that occurred would be possible... But they did. Yes they are extremes but we see increasing numbers of extreme weather events & patterns globally year on year, still seems to be an overwhelming viewpoint that a 2010 or even 2009 winter couldn't occur or is super unlikely but I don't agree with those views, everyone is entitled to their beliefs but in this thread if we mention 2010 we get replies as if we are The evidence is clear I've spoke in the winter threads about patterns have been going similar to 2010 (other colder analog years too) I've also said no 2 weather patterns will ever be identical but for those thinking the block is a standard affair... It aint