Kirkcaldy Weather

@Midlands Ice Age @Aleman Spanish Alpine Region

Some records from this weeks patterns which I've covered in extensive detail. Significant record this as it is an ALL TIME snowfall record ... very impressive for March

Some records from this weeks patterns. Significant record this one as it is an ALL TIME snowfall record very impressive to achieve in March

With ongoing feedback of recent MJO progression as discussed prior this leads into another significant cold air outbreak which descends from Russia through Kazakhstan and feeds into areas already dealing with prior outbreaks in Asia and the Middle East. With multiple troughs in this setup this will produce multiple significant snow events with one beginning in Turkey and many events in the same regions which have already recieved huge snows very recently ie Iran, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, North India, Nepal, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Krgyzstan, with a particularly big event likely by the 13th of March. Besides the significant flash flood risk which I discussed previously there are a few other significant synoptics in America & Canada. One system will deliver significant snow into the Pacific Northwest some further accumulations down the west coast toward the Sierras but certainly nothing akin to the past week -> 10 days. This system could also bring some flash flooding at lower elevations. The system bringing the significant flash flood threat across Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee etc will have significant snowfall on the northern and Northwestern flank across Eastern Canada and North Northeastern America. New Brunswick doing great again from this system too. The system across the Pacific Northwest will become a cut off low into Southwestern America during the remainder of March week 2. Signals emerging the next possible significant flash flood threat will emerge in roughly a weeks time across the Gulf States

Huge snowmaking system running across New Brunswick, Newfoundland and a bit in Nova Scotia.

Huge snowmaking system running across New Brunswick, Newfoundland and a bit in Nova Scotia. Next significant risks of flash flooding will also be prominent as we switch into a +PNA with multiple systems tracking across the East and Northeast portions of America - East Southeast Canadain Maritimes. The 1st system will give widespread significant rains all the way from Florida & The Bahamas up the East Coast with a trend for highest rates between New Hampshire, Massachusetts > Nova Scotia. The next system is further teleconnective feedback particularly the MJO as can be noted in my post on February 27th. Similarities to previous weeks as a new High descends from Canada / the Pacific Northwest this gives a new significant cold air outbreak which links to recent MJO progression. This system will bring new flash flood risks from more central states progressing East and Northeast with a trend ATM for a heightened risk between Alabama Georgia and Tennessee somewhere like Atlanta seems a higher risk area currently during Saturday.

Part of this cold outbreak has moved across East Asia with cold records broken thus far Looks like another significant cold anomaly from the same episode will cross by March 9th - 10th With somewhat of a similar pattern to weeks prior with cyclonic centres - cut off low developments being prominent toward the Alps this has produced mega snowfalls.

Leading on from the Autumn + Winter thread. Note some of these initial events began in the crossover period from Winter - Spring. Part of this cold outbreak has moved across East Asia breaking records thus far Another significant cold anomaly part of the same episode will cross by March 9th > 10th With similar patterns to prior weeks seeing further cyclonic centres and cut off low development this has produced several huge snow events over Alpine regions.

Starting at this point looking into the dynamics at play, as the Atlantic High moves eastward into Spain this will connect to the high developments to our East - Northeast from the south Southwest which does give a plume style pattern though brief. For the 2nd part of dynamics leading to the strengthening Blocking this comes thanks to the recent impressive strongly -PNA which was the strongest negative phase we've had all winter. As the -PNA high energy moves into the block to our Northeast there are indicators this may become at / record intensity of hpa for this timeframe with blacks and purples which are particularly useful spotting these. Leading on from my post here "Following on from this I'm seeing a trend for a possible transition into yet another of the precursor setups for further stratospheric warming. Current timing looks to be the very last days of February into March week 1.'' Very happy with those estimates This gives a boost to the stratospheric warming which is ongoing with feedback of this setup into a strong warming event during March week 2. So looking in some detail at some of the evolutions from now through the first half of March. We've got some wave break action which causes an upper level cold pool to move roughly northwestward from Europe to the North Sea As the High begins to retrograde this sends its accompanying wave break low / upper level cold pool northwestward whilst our cut off UK - Ireland trough also creates further cut off low developments into Italy. As I've been covering in my recent posts my main interest with regard to opportunities of below average conditions from the Northeast and East has remained focused from week 2 of March. With the Scandinavian Block continuing its retrograding movement west northwestward to Greenland blocking this will open the door to exactly the above. With a deep Atlantic trough and a Southerly tracking Jet Streak this will see plenty of colder than average temperatures at surface and upper levels (some significant) tracking across Southern Europe and parts of Northern Africa, those who follow my posts may remember various times during winter which produced flash flood risks across Portugal, Spain and progression further east... this is another prime showcase. Where the 500hpa setups will evolve to in a weeks time is perfect to where I'd expect to be given all teleconnective feedback which includes the prior stratospheric warming(s) feedback Following onto my post above. This is an impressive MJO cycle with a strengthening amplitude from the Indian Ocean which looks to maintain amplification as it crosses the Maritimes and heads into the Pacific. Having discussed upto phase 2 we are beginning to have feedback of phase 3 heading from March week 2 > 3 with the storm track in America gradually shifting northward and the trends into cut off blocking with troughs either side and possibly stormy conditions. Absolutely gorgeous. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5045052

Starting at this point looking into the dynamics at play, as the Atlantic High moves eastward into Spain this will connect to the high developments to our East - Northeast from the south Southwest which does give a plume style pattern though brief. For the 2nd part of dynamics leading to the strengthening Blocking this comes thanks to the recent impressive strongly -PNA which was the strongest negative phase we've had all winter. As the -PNA high energy moves into the block to our Northeast there are indicators this may become at / record intensity of hpa for this timeframe with blacks and purples which are particularly useful spotting these. Leading on from my post here "Following on from this I'm seeing a trend for a possible transition into yet another of the precursor setups for further stratospheric warming. Current timing looks to be the very last days of February into March week 1.'' Very happy with those estimates This gives a boost to the stratospheric warming which is ongoing with feedback of this setup into a strong warming event during March week 2. So looking in some detail at some of the evolutions from now through the first half of March. We've got some wave break action which causes an upper level cold pool to move roughly northwestward from Europe to the North Sea As the High begins to retrograde this sends its accompanying wave break low / upper level cold pool northwestward whilst our cut off UK - Ireland trough also creates further cut off low developments into Italy. As I've been covering in my recent posts my main interest with regard to opportunities of below average conditions from the Northeast and East has remained focused from week 2 of March. With the Scandinavian Block continuing its retrograding movement west northwestward to Greenland blocking this will open the door to exactly the above. With a deep Atlantic trough and a Southerly tracking Jet Streak this will see plenty of colder than average temperatures at surface and upper levels (some significant) tracking across Southern Europe and parts of Northern Africa, those who follow my posts may remember various times during winter which produced flash flood risks across Portugal, Spain and progression further east... this is another prime showcase. Where the 500hpa setups will evolve to in a weeks time is perfect to where I'd expect to be given all teleconnective feedback which includes the prior stratospheric warming(s) feedback Following onto my post above. This is an impressive MJO cycle with a strengthening amplitude from the Indian Ocean which looks to maintain amplification as it crosses the Maritimes and heads into the Pacific. Having discussed upto phase 2 we are beginning to have feedback of phase 3 heading from March week 2 > 3 with the storm track in America gradually shifting northward and the trends into cut off blocking with troughs either side and possibly stormy conditions. Absolutely gorgeous.

Wanted to add some info for the setup as we start Spring and some focal areas I'm monitoring heading through the first 2-3 weeks of March. During the first area of precip during the overnight hours tonight into tomorrow morning a tornado can't be ruled out as there will be an increased amount of shear and SRH values are also higher. Wales moving East Northeast across a large part of England. As this activity develops into frontal precip moving northwestward into Scotland there will be a zone of increasing instability from Southwest England pushing into Central and Southeast England from mid day tomorrow. Thundery showers development with thundersnow also possible. This can be noted as increasingly cold cloud tops move through. My main period of interest continues to be through week 2 of March and in particular by mid March with a number of intriguing prospects. Fitting with the MJO compisites in my post above we are beginning to see the feedback of the next opportunity for a possible snowy system into Northeast America with this currently looking to be devdloping around March 8th - 11th though not a huge emphasis on precise dates. During this timeframe we also see current trends which move the Tropospheric Vortex more into our side of the Northern Hemisphere. Into Mid March this will be part of the main 500hpa setups with our retrograding block moving into Greenland which gradually continues westwards as this is a big part of the El Ninò pattern as I showed prior, main focal points will be how strong we get into the negative NAO plus the energetic connection with the cyclone from Northeast US into our current UK trough which moves into the Atlantic as discussed plus as these join and link to the emerging trough toward Scandinavia ie the Tropospheric Vortex.

Important notes regarding the US heat records this has occured following a strong Negative PNA [STRONGEST VALUES OF THE ENTIRE WINTER] AND DURING A SUPER EL NINÒ. *preliminary

Important notes for the US heat records > THIS HAS OCCURED FOLLOWING A STRONG NEGATIVE PNA [STRONGEST VALUES OF THE ENTIRE WINTER] AND DURING A SUPER EL NINÒ. *preliminary Following on to my post above As the cold air outbreak continues moving east with some interaction from the MJO which is currently moving across the Indian Ocean we'll have an intensification of the troughing which creates a significant and severe snowstorm which moves across Afghanistan,Tajikistan, Pakistan, North India into Nepal. Further severely cold temperatures again upto and perhaps exceeding 20 degrees below average.

Extremely pleased how the patterns have & are developing there's a few timeframes I'm focusing on ATM. As this next low becomes a cut off low first across the UK and Ireland with below average temperatures at 850hpa and surface levels with fronts wrapping around the low this brings potential for snow event(s) for the UK and Ireland. I had mentioned in a number of my posts that week 4 of February was the next significant opportunity for patterns which could favour wintry conditions and I'm extremely happy seeing such evolutions. As the thickness levels begin to lower once more this sees the showers from the Atlantic becoming steadily more wintry and once the low begins to develop into that of a cut off and the cold air continues to intensify as it undercuts frontal precip current trends show potential for snow event(s) in particular for Wales, Northwest and Northern England [Pennines] and pushing into Scotland. In these areas seeing snow / wintry precip there will also be frosts and an ice risk maybe even an ice day with snow cover. As the pattern across our side of the Northern Hemisphere begins to develop retrograding tendencies we'll see a few big and interesting developments. As a high which is currently building further to our East begins to strengthen once the retrograding begins this will move westward to sit to our East also during this our cut off low also retrogrades westward into the Atlantic, this combination suggests a plume setup during week 1 of March is a real possibility. Into week 2 of March with further retrograding the connection of blocking to our East Northeast and the -PNA high across East Northeast America and Canadian Maritimes begins to centre in across Greenland. With the MJO having progressed across the Western Hemisphere, South America and Africa and currently residing within the Indian Ocean this gives feedback in line with the above patterns and suggests there is a possibility for a colder flow from the Northeast > East though how much influence this has in the UK TBD. Plenty of interest as we head closer to Mid March I suspect. This ongoing cycle of the MJO carries importance with regard to El Ninò though there are still a bit of discrepancies with how amplified the MJO becomes within the Indian Ocean with the GEFS seeing a strong event whereas the CFS is much less amplified. The GEM & JMA are more akin with the GEFS I'm more familiar with Westerly Wind Bursts which are the warmer ones however we're looking at Easterly Wind Burst event here which could further speed up the ongoing decline in the El Ninò temperatures. Also worth noting once more with the precursor patterns continuing we've got good signals for a new reversal of zonal winds at 10hpa (possibly 50hpa though no agreement on that just yet) with this looking like a stronger reversal than the previous 2 of winter 2023-2024. Thanks for reading. KW Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5042615

Extremely pleased how the patterns have & are developing there's a few timeframes I'm focusing on ATM. As this next low becomes a cut off low first across the UK and Ireland with below average temperatures at 850hpa and surface levels with fronts wrapping around the low this brings potential for snow event(s) for the UK and Ireland. I had mentioned in a number of my posts that week 4 of February was the next significant opportunity for patterns which could favour wintry conditions and I'm extremely happy seeing such evolutions. As the thickness levels begin to lower once more this sees the showers from the Atlantic becoming steadily more wintry and once the low begins to develop into that of a cut off and the cold air continues to intensify as it undercuts frontal precip current trends show potential for snow event(s) in particular for Wales, Northwest and Northern England [Pennines] and pushing into Scotland. In these areas seeing snow / wintry precip there will also be frosts and an ice risk maybe even an ice day with snow cover. As the pattern across our side of the Northern Hemisphere begins to develop retrograding tendencies we'll see a few big and interesting developments. As a high which is currently building further to our East begins to strengthen once the retrograding begins this will move westward to sit to our East also during this our cut off low also retrogrades westward into the Atlantic, this combination suggests a plume setup during week 1 of March is a real possibility. Into week 2 of March with further retrograding the connection of blocking to our East Northeast and the -PNA high across East Northeast America and Canadian Maritimes begins to centre in across Greenland. With the MJO having progressed across the Western Hemisphere, South America and Africa and currently residing within the Indian Ocean this gives feedback in line with the above patterns and suggests there is a possibility for a colder flow from the Northeast > East though how much influence this has in the UK TBD. Plenty of interest as we head closer to Mid March I suspect. This ongoing cycle of the MJO carries importance with regard to El Ninò though there are still a bit of discrepancies with how amplified the MJO becomes within the Indian Ocean with the GEFS seeing a strong event whereas the CFS is much less amplified. The GEM & JMA are more akin with the GEFS I'm more familiar with Westerly Wind Bursts which are the warmer ones however we're looking at Easterly Wind Burst event here which could further speed up the ongoing decline in the El Ninò temperatures. Also worth noting once more with the precursor patterns continuing we've got good signals for a new reversal of zonal winds at 10hpa (possibly 50hpa though no agreement on that just yet) with this looking like a stronger reversal than the previous 2 of winter 2023-2024. Thanks for reading. KW

Further significant & severe cold outbreaks as troughing descends into the Middle East which will see temperatures at 850hpa and surface temperatures as much as 20 degrees below average moving across countries such as Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. This troughing also brings further significant snowfalls. Similar to previous weeks as a new high descends out of Canada this will push the above average airmass currently across America away with below average temperatures swinging across the US and into Mexico. Ahead of the Canadian high and associated with the above average airmass, as an area of low pressure moves across northern states this looks set to see the next flash flood risk from February 28th through the first days of March with first focus into Kentucky, Indianna and Ohio, this may also have an accompanying severe weather risk ie tornadoes. During this timeframe we also have further significant precipitation and flash flood risks moving from the Pacific Northwest down across the west coast. This is modelled to be a very significant event for the higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest moving into higher elevations of California ie Sierras with HUGE snow amounts. There is also potential for a big rainmaker running along the Gulf States into the first days of March though there isn't full agreement on this ATM. The above average temperatures in Alaska will also switch to significantly cold and well below average again upto 20C values from the end of Feb into beginning of March.

Lots going on. As the initial deep cyclone moves in through tomorrow there will be a few developments, along the southern flank there will be spawning of additional cyclonic centres thanks to a strong Jet Stream which already broke records when it was situated over Northeastern America During the initial phase of cyclogenisis the newly developing cyclonic Centre running through central and South Southeast England will have 2 zones of convection with one being particularly prominent and linear in form... possible Line Echo Wave Pattern / Squall and additional thundery cells could develop ahead of this line. There might be some flash flooding within this. During tomorrow I also wouldn't be shocked seeing flash flood reports across France. Into Friday this develops into 3 cyclonic centres with the one from the UK undergoing rapid cyclogenisis as it moves over the North Sea and swings into Scandinavia as a deep snowstorm which links to the original main cyclonic Centre which is part of the Tropospheric Vortex. We also see another cyclonic centre developing into the Alps as a snowstorm too. As the linear convective activities clear into the North Sea the thickness level across Ireland and UK lowers with a plethora of wintry precipitation and snow even at low levels with laying snow a distinct liklihood particularly across Scotland Thundersnow opportunities likely too. For the next developments we need to go back to the low which brought flooding rains across Florida. This same cyclone will deliver further snow in Newfoundland This same cyclone will move over the Atlantic high and become joined with the original cyclone / section of the Tropospheric Vortex North northwest of the UK this will move toward Ireland the UK and Europe by Feb 25th / 26th. During this timeframe the Alps snowstorm will be directed Northeastwards with current guidance of a snowstorm(s) ranging from Denmark and especially Sweden to other Baltic countries such as Latvia and Finland. The new system moving into Ireland UK and Europe could bring new flash flood risks from Southern England, Portugal, Northwest and North Spain into France once more... track and hpa dependant possible gales too. As the high to the east builds into a high in Scandinavia this will connect to the Atlantic High giving the cut off low by February 26th - 27th. This connection will be brief at this stage with new trough developments close to the UK & Ireland During the last days of February into the beginning of March During week 1 of March with further influence from phase 7 of the MJO this could see further connections between the Canadian Maritimes Blocking and the Block to our East Northeast with potential this evolves into a Greenland High a la Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5040369

Guess I'm the only one excited