Kirkcaldy Weather
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Posts posted by Kirkcaldy Weather
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12 hours ago, Ravelin said:
Cloud cuckoo land surely.
It's a setup I'd expected to occur at some point this month as one of my top analogues continues to be 2012>2013
The classic negatively tilted trough with sliding low as became a noteable feature in 2013
Models still getting a handle on this particular evolution however a snow event becoming increasingly likely during March 25th through 27th IMO.
A plethora of potential hazards within this setup.
Significant snowfall
Possible flash flooding at lower levels on the southern end of the boundary
We go back into sub zero windchill values which gradually increase with a strengthening Southeast > East > (Northeasterly) in some parts.
Possible gales from the North Sea.
Some of the models get the boundary far enough south that with the initial interaction a wide area of Scotland sees at least falling snow.
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Increased pressure gradient due to a strong high to the South Southeast of South Africa will create a supportive moisture flow from the Mozambique Channel
An increasing flash flood risk via this increased moisture into Mozambique particularly Southeast, South Mozambique extending into Eswatini and perhaps parts of Southeastern South Africa.
We also have a slow moving cyclone to the Northeast of Madagascar this will create a flash flood threat from Northeast Madagascar then extending across the Eastern portions of Madagascar.
Most of the above average temperatures are across the DRC with heavier showers and storms, this looks to continue with above average temperatures extending across Angola and Zambia significant in some parts also some heat into Botswana and Namibia with the areas discussed above being below average perhaps significantly so and also Southwest South Africa
West and Northwest Madagascar also above average.
With ongoing feedback of a switch in SAM phase, a serious of systems will move across & near New Zealand during week 4 of March bringing substantial rainfalls particularly across West + Southwest New Zealand with an increased threat of flash flooding.
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On 19/03/2024 at 21:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Into the 22nd we start to see quite a significant pattern shift.
On 19/03/2024 at 21:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:During the 22nd we'll see a cold front moving through and this begins the pattern shift to that of a colder pattern during week 4 of March.
There goes the cold front sweeping through
Gales across the North and Northwest though a gradual increase across the UK and Ireland.
All of the UK and Ireland experiencing sub zero windchill values.
On 19/03/2024 at 21:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:In roughly a weeks time we will start to see the feedback of ongoing MJO progression across the Pacific, phases 6 and 7 with new trough developments from Greenland tilted negatively toward the west of Ireland and the Atlantic
Worth paying close attention it's more the secondary system as it merges with the 1st cyclonic developments which then look to begin rapid cyclogenisis particularly toward March 27th close to the South Southwest of Ireland initially with some indicators of pressure even having cyclogenisis into the 950hpa values.
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On 15/03/2024 at 21:59, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Another significant below average anomaly likely during March 18th - 23rd Approx as a slow moving cut off low moves across India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand bringing heavy rains.
"Incessant rain since the early hours of Wednesday brought down the maximum temperature in Kolkata by a whopping 13ºC below normal as the meteorological department forecast continued inclement weather in the city until Thursday.
Wednesday's maximum temperature in Kolkata was 21.1ºC, the department said. This is the second lowest maximum temperature recorded in March since 1970. The previous lowest maximum temperature was 20.3ºC recorded on 13 March 2003, the department said."
As part of these rains - cut off low energy moves North Northeast this will bring a flash flood risk initially from East China into Japan
There is also a significant snow event ongoing from the China and Korea Border
As a new cut off low begins to develop this will bring a new flash flood risk with more of a northward area covering more of Korea and once again Japan, some of this could fall as snow.
On 19/03/2024 at 02:14, Kirkcaldy Weather said:From Thursday 21st March through next Tuesday approx, a cut off low will develop across the Gulf States with an initial significant flash flood risk in Texas which then moves across the Gulf States ie Louisianna and Florida, as this cut off low connects at least for a time to the troughing in Canada and into the Great Lakes the significant flash flood risk will move up the East Coast with the Carolinas currently looking a higher risk area for flooding though a generalised threat across all of the Eastern coastal States into the Canadian Maritimes. This flash flood risk will also move into the Bahamas.
Good model consistency with this system and a trend for the troughing which moves across the Great Lakes and connects to the cut off low to produce a swathe of higher snowfall totals from Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois which moves across the Great Lakes and as the energy connection occurs the trend for a significant snow event continues to intensify toward Northeast America.
One of the areas at risk of highest precip rates and higher flash flood risk continues to be through Maryland, Delaware, Philadelphia with particular focus into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island with this gradually continuing North Northeast into Maine.
On 13/03/2024 at 20:54, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Significant flash flood event becoming increasingly likely from March 18th - 23rd Approx as a cut off low develops and moves across parts of the Middle East accompanied by a strong Jet Streak which looks to increase precip intensity.
Main severe risk currently by March 19th & 20th close by the Iraq, Turkey and Iran border.
On 16/03/2024 at 18:44, Kirkcaldy Weather said:As covered in recent posts with many cut off lows plus a main Tropospheric Vortex lobe moving into the Kara Sea and Russia this is an excellent pattern for multiple significant snowfall events and overall large snowfall coverage across parts of the Middle East, large swathes of Asia and Russia + Siberia during the next few weeks.
Turkey being one of the main regions seeing huge snowfall amounts as multiple cut off lows move through with the 1st being part of a Rossby Wave Break Event which I've discussed in a few posts
Over the next 10 days a large swathe of Turkey will recieve significant amounts of snow with an area particularly toward the Southeast likely to see upwards of 100+ CM
As a new cut off low moves through parts of the Middle East and connects to the cut off low[s] and developing troughing in Turkey this will bring the next significant flash flood risk across similar areas to the recent event ie Iran and Iraq plus along their border during March 24th through 26th.
Some of this precip is likely to fall as snow in Iran.
Per recent MJO progression feedback and IOBW warm phase this will continue a cold > significantly cold temperature setup extending across Australia
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See my posts in the global thread for detailed discussions on Megan.
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Excellent
Taking all the following points and composites in the above post we are seeing the manner in which the upcoming pattern shifts will transpire.
On 15/03/2024 at 21:54, Kirkcaldy Weather said:With further feedback including that of phases 4 and 5 we'll see a number of noteworthy developments.
On 15/03/2024 at 21:54, Kirkcaldy Weather said:The next cyclone to approach Ireland and the UK will transition into a cut off low which heads through Spain and into Northwest and Northern Africa, likely rossby wave breaking involved.
On 15/03/2024 at 21:54, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Per the above there will be opportunity for the Atlantic - Azores High to ridge across more southern parts of the UK and Ireland.
Another main aspect of phases 4 through 5 is the building of a strong Pacific > Alaska > Arctic Ridge and Blocking regime which extends into Greenland likely more of a -AO during this sequence.
On 12/03/2024 at 03:07, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Pairing with feedback of the Super El Ninò we can see this is supportive of a warmer pattern including the development of high pressure from Africa which extends into Europe again bringing increased temperatures at surface and 850hpa levels.
On 12/03/2024 at 03:07, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Linking this to the feedback of phases 2 through 3 during February and March again nice representation here for an above average temperature setup.
Starting at these focal points here we see as expected an above average temperature setup extending from Africa through parts of Europe with significantly above average temperatures at surface and upper levels perhaps some temperature records.
Here's the Rossby Wave Break Event with the high pressure and dual cut off lows
As the High ridges into the UK and Ireland this brings a period of significantly above average temperatures at surface and upper levels, perhaps enough for some temperature records at these levels
Into the 22nd we start to see quite a significant pattern shift.
As a system which began as the troughing across Canada across the Great Lakes and currently into the Canadian Maritimes per MJO feedback as discussed, begins to move over the Atlantic high this will bring stormy winds particularly toward the Faroe Islands with an accompanying strong Jet Streak and as this system continues Eastward these stronger winds will begin to extend into the UK
During the 22nd we'll see a cold front moving through and this begins the pattern shift to that of a colder pattern during week 4 of March.
As thickness levels lower and with the 528 dam and below air being present across the UK and Ireland this will cause precip to turn wintry with a risk of snow for all regions of the UK and Ireland ie Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England with most across higher elevations though mixing even to low levels cannot be discounted, probably a setup where West and Northwest Scotland does well for snowfall. Similar to the snowfall risk areas the frost risk will be most prominent further Northwest and North though all areas of the UK and Ireland seeing below average temperatures at surface and upper levels.
This initial storm system will produce significant snow events across Iceland and Norway.
As this system descends it will bring a new significant snow event for the Alps.. Swiss Alps especially and a heightened risk of a heavy precip event into Slovenia which could be rain and or snow so a risk of flash flooding needs considering, these events are from the 23rd through 26th.
In roughly a weeks time we will start to see the feedback of ongoing MJO progression across the Pacific, phases 6 and 7 with new trough developments from Greenland tilted negatively toward the west of Ireland and the Atlantic
We'll begin to see an increasing influence from blocking further East which could push the Atlantic trough further west and perhaps an opportunity for a plume type setup given past experience and the time of year becoming more supportive.
So we're seeing a below average temperature setup for week 4 of March
This is also ongoing feedback from the IOBW warm phase which supports a colder setup during March.
Also factoring in the overall season of stratospheric developments including multiple stratospheric warming events which I'd like to revisit my comments here
On 27/02/2024 at 21:05, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Also worth noting once more with the precursor patterns continuing we've got good signals for a new reversal of zonal winds at 10hpa (possibly 50hpa though no agreement on that just yet) with this looking like a stronger reversal than the previous 2 of winter 2023-2024.
This was a significant SSW event with a significant reversal of zonal winds
10hpa values exceeding -20 m/s
Plus a reversal at 50hpa
Given recent and current MJO progression paired onto weak vortex events again further excellent and expected correlation
Impressive cold setup this with multiple minus double digit temperatures in Iceland and Scandinavia which are of particular note.
Cheers KW
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Some significant systems developing into America this week and beyond.
From Thursday 21st March through next Tuesday approx, a cut off low will develop across the Gulf States with an initial significant flash flood risk in Texas which then moves across the Gulf States ie Louisianna and Florida, as this cut off low connects at least for a time to the troughing in Canada and into the Great Lakes the significant flash flood risk will move up the East Coast with the Carolinas currently looking a higher risk area for flooding though a generalised threat across all of the Eastern coastal States into the Canadian Maritimes. This flash flood risk will also move into the Bahamas.
During Friday and into the Weekend a new system will move into the west coast with a new round of significant snowfall for the Sierras and the West > Northwestern States having a generally snowy & cold setup.
These patterns are feedback from recent MJO phases as discussed in various posts plus the MJO moving across the Pacific and this part of the globe in general during this timeframe.
As this system progresses East Northeastwards there is potential for a number of possible significant and severe weather events with a snowstorm on the northern and Northwestern flanks [Northern States] as it utilises the significant cold upper and surface level temperatures which are pulled in from Canada, and a significant flash flood risk paired to a potential severe weather outbreak on the Southern and Southeastern flanks across the heart of America progressing East and Northeast. Current timing is approximately March 24th through 29th.
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^ Megan currently making landfall close to the most Eastern of the Pellew Islands she will make landfall on the mainland in the early hours of Monday around the Robinson River with severe flash flooding rains stretching from the Pellew Islands across the Northern Territory and Northwest > Northeast Queensland, she will also bring severe damaging winds again particularly close to the centre around the Pellew Islands into the Robinson River and still some significant winds as she moves westwards inland before gradually weakening although the severe rains will extend well inland and westwards.
There will also be significant flash flood potential from heavy rains / storms around the East Southeast Coastline including a strong front from a system moving into New Zealand.
The outer bands of Tropical Storm 18S will move into the Northwestern coastline of Western Australia in the next few days.
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On 11/03/2024 at 02:57, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
No real surprise seeing such an active pattern particularly across the Eastern portion of the Indian Ocean given the higher amplitude passage of the MJO.
This will generate further cyclones again these are likely to be tropical in nature with one close to the Northwestern Coast of Australia and at least one other which moves into the Arafura Sea and potentially sits in the waters with regions between Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Models are really having a difficult time with this system which has been named Megan.
Still no real consistency on landfall timing and locale within the modelling with some having landfall around the Pellew Islands Tomorrow whereas a more easterly landfall is favoured by some including the GEM even into Tuesday.
As covered in recent posts with many cut off lows plus a main Tropospheric Vortex lobe moving into the Kara Sea and Russia this is an excellent pattern for multiple significant snowfall events and overall large snowfall coverage across parts of the Middle East, large swathes of Asia and Russia + Siberia during the next few weeks.
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On 11/03/2024 at 02:57, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Ahead of these cyclonic developments we have an ongoing significant rainfall event in Western Australia.
On 13/03/2024 at 20:54, Kirkcaldy Weather said:This low will also produce a snow event across Colorado [significant accumulations here] also high amounts spreading into Utah, Arizona and New Mexico.
With feedback of recent MJO progression particularly February phases 2 and 3 there are some noteworth cold air outbreaks.
Canada and East Southeast America
South America, there will also be significant snowfalls across Chile and some in Argentina and Peru.
Another significant below average anomaly likely during March 18th - 23rd Approx as a slow moving cut off low moves across India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand bringing heavy rains.
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Adding some more detail to the above post, further excellent representation of MJO feedback
With further feedback including that of phases 4 and 5 we'll see a number of noteworthy developments.
As discussed in the above post the next movement of the Tropospheric Vortex during the next 7 days approximately sees the TPV begin to split with the main lobe heading across the Kara Sea into Russia with secondary lobe(s) moving into Canada and the Canadian Maritimes.
The next cyclone to approach Ireland and the UK will transition into a cut off low which heads through Spain and into Northwest and Northern Africa, likely rossby wave breaking involved.
Also note the cut off high as mentioned previously and the trend into a trough dominating pattern beginning from Canada toward the Great Lakes and Northeast America.
Per the above there will be opportunity for the Atlantic - Azores High to ridge across more southern parts of the UK and Ireland.
Another main aspect of phases 4 through 5 is the building of a strong Pacific > Alaska > Arctic Ridge and Blocking regime which extends into Greenland likely more of a -AO during this sequence.
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Fair play to you @WeatherArc you'd given credence to a significant tornado being likely
My favourite shots I've seen thus far of the significant tornado near Alta Vista
Nice structure on a small solo cell in Texas yesterday
Significant updrafts on those storms yesterday meaning mega hail, helmets required
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Flash flood threat particulary given already sodden ground for Ireland, Northwest England and Scotland as a cyclonic system develops along the boundary between cooler and milder airmasses.
Tomorrow through Saturday.
With colder air undercutting from the Northwest this will turn the rain to snow for the Scottish Highlands.
As this colder airmass descends into Ireland and the UK this will bring Lowering temperatures including frost especially further north and northwest.
Overnight Fri > Saturday
As an area of increasing instability moves into Central Southern and Southeast England on Friday Afternoon this could generate thundery showers.
There are multiple big snowfalls with one in Iceland and as the system from Ireland and the UK moves along the MJO feedback pathway per my previous post, this brings a snowfall event across Scandinavia.
Also linking to my prior post.
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On 08/03/2024 at 20:50, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
The system across the Pacific Northwest will become a cut off low into Southwestern America during the remainder of March week 2.
Busy setup I'll begin on the initial cut off low development.
Further West as this process gets underway there are a few big weather events with one being a high fire
threat as the cut off low draws up drier air combined with higher winds.
This low will also produce a snow event across Colorado [significant accumulations here] also high amounts spreading into Utah, Arizona and New Mexico.
Further East Northeast and Southeast this low will draw up high PWAT values
bringing the next significant flash flood threats as discussed here
On 08/03/2024 at 20:50, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Signals emerging the next possible significant flash flood threat will emerge in roughly a weeks time across the Gulf States
This will be split into two distinct zones.
Southern risk.
Many states involved but highest totals across Arkansas, Louisianna, Mississippi ,Tennessee into Texas.
Northern Risk.
Looks to begin across Iowa, Missouri, Illinois with this expanding as it moves toward the Great Lakes with Wisconsin and particularly Michigan seeing higher totals, this moves into areas close to Lake Eerie.
Trends for a new significant flash flood risk continuing across Texas from Sunday - Monday this also moves into Louisianna.
Significant flash flood event becoming increasingly likely from March 18th - 23rd Approx as a cut off low develops and moves across parts of the Middle East accompanied by a strong Jet Streak which looks to increase precip intensity.
Main severe risk currently by March 19th & 20th close by the Iraq, Turkey and Iran border.
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Overall very happy with the above post.
Starting with the modelled movement of the Tropospheric Vortex we can watch as it moves into a position between the Greenland and Kara seas generally over the next week or so.
On 29/02/2024 at 21:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Into Mid March this will be part of the main 500hpa setups with our retrograding block moving into Greenland which gradually continues westwards as this is a big part of the El Ninò pattern as I showed prior, main focal points will be how strong we get into the negative NAO plus the energetic connection with the cyclone from Northeast US into our current UK trough which moves into the Atlantic as discussed plus as these join and link to the emerging trough toward Scandinavia ie the Tropospheric Vortex.
On 29/02/2024 at 21:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Fitting with the MJO composites in my post above we are beginning to see the feedback of the next opportunity for a possible snowy system into Northeast America with this currently looking to be devdloping around March 8th - 11th though not a huge emphasis on precise dates.
Very happy with the overall timing
as this storm system merges with the Atlantic troughing which feeds into the Tropospheric Vortex as discussed prior.
This pattern of cyclonic systems running to the North Northwest of the UK and Ireland is feedback from recent MJO progression particularly February phases 1 through 2 with good representation including the Tropospheric Vortex positioning.
Pairing with feedback of the Super El Ninò we can see this is supportive of a warmer pattern including the development of high pressure from Africa which extends into Europe again bringing increased temperatures at surface and 850hpa levels.
Linking this to the feedback of phases 2 through 3 during February and March again nice representation here for an above average temperature setup.
Further nice temperature representation particularly in Australia, South America and USA + Canada.
We're really looking at the feedback of the above really coming to the fore in particular from Mid March - 15th which becomes most noteable to begin with across Canada as the persistent blocking patterns which have - are a common El Ninò characteristic begin to transition as troughing begins to form into Canada.
From the 15th there are a couple of major developments as discussed above.
The Canadian Blocking starts to transition more into that of a trough dominated pattern.
The increasingly strengthening high develops from Africa into Europe.
As the trough developments begin over Canada this will force the blocking to weaken overall at this stage with signs of the cut off high developments I spoke of currently looking likely somewhere between Greenland and Canada with Baffin Bay a reasonable shout.
On 04/03/2024 at 16:15, Kirkcaldy Weather said:This is an impressive MJO cycle with a strengthening amplitude from the Indian Ocean which looks to maintain amplification as it crosses the Maritimes and heads into the Pacific. Having discussed upto phase 2 we are beginning to have feedback of phase 3 heading from March week 2 > 3 with the storm track in America gradually shifting northward and the trends into cut off blocking with troughs either side and possibly stormy conditions.
The feedback as we begin to move at a continuous high amplitude across the Maritimes see my post here for further info
This feedback is already becoming noticeable within the models with phase 4 in March having tendency of high pressure building in the Atlantic possibly extending toward the Canadian Maritimes with scope for ridging up into Greenland and a potentially stormy setup with troughing around the UK.
Thanks for reading.
KW
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Though the main part of the MJO has began crossing the Maritimes there will still be enough connecting energy within the Indian Ocean likely via Kelvin Wave[s] activity which will generate a cyclone (possibly tropical) in the Mozambique chanel, this will move into Mozambique in the next few days bringing significant rains and high flash flood risk before it recurves back into the Indian Ocean.
*Since typing this post this system has been given tropical storm classification with the name Filipo.
No real surprise seeing such an active pattern particularly across the Eastern portion of the Indian Ocean given the higher amplitude passage of the MJO.
This will generate further cyclones again these are likely to be tropical in nature with one close to the Northwestern Coast of Australia and at least one other which moves into the Arafura Sea and potentially sits in the waters with regions between Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Ahead of these cyclonic developments we have an ongoing significant rainfall event in Western Australia.
This will move around coastal Southern Australia with some signals for a renewal of intensity as it moves up the Southeast and East coastal regions perhaps Sydney at risk.
With the MJO continuing to move over the Maritimes at a high amplitude this will enhance the tropical convection bringing high rainfall amounts across parts of Southeast Asia and Melanesia.
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Some records from this weeks patterns which I've covered in extensive detail.
Significant record this as it is an ALL TIME snowfall record ... very impressive for March
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Some records from this weeks patterns.
Significant record this one as it is an ALL TIME snowfall record very impressive to achieve in March
Global interconnected weather - Model Output, Pattern Drivers plus Impact worldwide
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
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Further excellent consistency within the models.
Impressive storm with significant snowfall with a few areas trending for particularly high totals
Accompanying severe weather and flash flood threat progressing East, Northeast and Southeastwards with trends into a new low near the Carolinas coast into Thursday which might increase these threats.
This storm is pushing the snowfall as far South as Mexico with further snowfall potentially significant totals toward Chihuahua.
This storm will also draw up anomalously dry air when combining with gusty winds this brings the next fire risk.
Recap of this systems impacts.
Next cyclonic system moving into the Pacific Northwest and West Coast from Weds into Thursday bringing the next threat of low elevation flash flooding and the next snowfall event again high totals being signalled for the Sierras, this will transition into another system [cut off low] and move into SoCal during next weekend with low elevation flash flood threat and potential for snow at higher elevation.
As discussed in my post above the active pattern across Europe and Africa to name a few is continuing, this isnt too surprising given its combining recent MJO feedback paired with the MJO currently crossing this region of the globe which will further boost cyclonic development. We've got the cut off low from the Rossby Wave Break Event merging to new cyclonic developments in the Atlantic close to Ireland and further cyclonic developments feeding into this merger creating a deep cyclone again from the Atlantic close to & across Ireland.
Lots of areas with flash flood risks at lower elevations and many snowfall events predominantly at higher elevations though not exclusively.
Morocco, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, UK, France, Alpine regions, Italy etc.
A pattern which has been common in this El Ninò with a strong Jet Streak into Northwest Spain and Portugal bringing a heightened flash flood risk and an overall Southerly tracking Jet.