Kirkcaldy Weather
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Posts posted by Kirkcaldy Weather
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On 28/03/2024 at 21:23, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Significant flash flood threat will develop across East and Southeast China as energies connecting to the MJO become slow moving troughing over this area likely Kelvin Wave - CCKW activities involved. This will extend into Taiwan and Japan.
This has occured via an extended severe weather outbreak, thoughts to all affected
On 31/03/2024 at 22:28, Kirkcaldy Weather said:This will be the fuel for a potential storm system with anomalously high PWAT bringing a potentially significant wintry precip event along the Northwestern and Northern flanks.
On 28/03/2024 at 21:23, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Great representation of the MJO feedback as a high builds across East and Southeast USA and the cut off low into the Southwest as discussed previously.
This cut off low producing noteworthy low temperatures and rain
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Other rainfall / dry records of late.
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Leading onto the above.
Signals here for a multitude of potential severe weather impacts with this cyclonic system during Friday and Saturday in particular, though I already discussed the flash flood threat I wanted to show that there is a tropical moisture inflow into this cyclone which can be tracked back into the Ninò style Jet with moisture inflow really from the Pacific and Mexico. This moisture inflow starts downstream into the severe weather and ongoing snowstorm in America which leads into an increasingly strengthening Jet Streak helping our cyclone to undergo deep cyclogenisis.
As the cyclogenisis occurs I'd expect wind warnings to be required heading into Saturday with potential for damaging gusts with current signals trending toward Ireland seeing the highest gusts initially with this area transferring possibly across the Irish Sea and impacting Northwest England and Scotland with high gusts continuing into Sunday in the North.
Beauty of a Rossby Wave Break Event as discussed prior this weekend in America.
There is likely to be further cyclonic development during the beginning of next week with a dip in the upper level dynamics however discrepancies on the track with some indicating the Bay of Biscay wheras others pull it into this weekends cyclonic developments with movements toward the UK.
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On 27/03/2024 at 03:06, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
As this initial troughing clears Eastward this will open the door to colder conditions from the North during April week 1 with current trends for this to be most prominent across Northern areas of the UK.
Starting with the above, with a Lowering Isotherm there will be multiple areas of snow particularly across Scotland mostly for higher elevations though mixing occuring at lower levels will be likely, with the first seeing the ongoing rain gradually becoming increasingly wintry > snowy then as a stronger area of frontal precip comes in during April 4th and 5th with the lowest Isotherm values a snow event occurs as this moves through Scotland.
On 27/03/2024 at 03:06, Kirkcaldy Weather said:With further trough developments into the latter part of April week 1 in the North Atlantic this will bring an increasingly above average precipitation setup adjusting further north through Ireland and the UK.
On 19/03/2024 at 21:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:We'll begin to see an increasing influence from blocking further East which could push the Atlantic trough further west and perhaps an opportunity for a plume type setup given past experience and the time of year becoming more supportive.
During Friday and Saturday we get the first great example of the above as a cyclone begins to deepen west of Ireland with increasing high pressure across Europe to the South Southeast of the UK this gives a plume style setup with trends this will draw up highly anomalous PWAT values which indicates very heavy rainfall and a resulting flash flood risk.
This will see a large portion of Europe extending from Africa experiencing surface and upper level temperatures above - significantly above average I'd expect further temperature records potentially tied and broken.
Looking at the setup across the Northern Hemisphere by this weekend some of the most noteworthy events
- Developing Rossby Wave Break Event across America [see global thread for more info]
- As discussed above plume setup builds across Europe
- The -NAO event connects into the + Arctic Oscillation
With the teleconnective pairing of the move from a strong -NAO toward positive NAO values with recent stronger +AO values we'll see a focus of troughing and cyclonic developments more centering effects for Northwest and Northern UK and Ireland with a building of higher pressure having greater impacts toward southernmost UK and Europe.
This will also pair with the MJO progressing from our region of the globe ie Western Hemisphere, South America and Africa into the Indian Ocean although at a lower amplitude again feedback shows cyclonic systems trend more Northwest and Northern trackways and I would suggest further plume opportunities are plausible given feedback signal of high pressure to our East and Northeast with similar trough placements to our west and southwest most likely.
Cheers. KW
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Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5054233 -
On 27/03/2024 at 03:06, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
As this initial troughing clears Eastward this will open the door to colder conditions from the North during April week 1 with current trends for this to be most prominent across Northern areas of the UK.
Starting with the above, with a Lowering Isotherm there will be multiple areas of snow particularly across Scotland mostly for higher elevations though mixing occuring at lower levels will be likely, with the first seeing the ongoing rain gradually becoming increasingly wintry > snowy then as a stronger area of frontal precip comes in during April 4th and 5th with the lowest Isotherm values a snow event occurs as this moves through Scotland.
On 27/03/2024 at 03:06, Kirkcaldy Weather said:With further trough developments into the latter part of April week 1 in the North Atlantic this will bring an increasingly above average precipitation setup adjusting further north through Ireland and the UK.
On 19/03/2024 at 21:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:We'll begin to see an increasing influence from blocking further East which could push the Atlantic trough further west and perhaps an opportunity for a plume type setup given past experience and the time of year becoming more supportive.
During Friday and Saturday we get the first great example of the above as a cyclone begins to deepen west of Ireland with increasing high pressure across Europe to the South Southeast of the UK this gives a plume style setup with trends this will draw up highly anomalous PWAT values which indicates very heavy rainfall and a resulting flash flood risk.
This will see a large portion of Europe extending from Africa experiencing surface and upper level temperatures above - significantly above average I'd expect further temperature records potentially tied and broken.
Looking at the setup across the Northern Hemisphere by this weekend some of the most noteworthy events
- Developing Rossby Wave Break Event across America [see global thread for more info]
- As discussed above plume setup builds across Europe
- The -NAO event connects into the + Arctic Oscillation
With the teleconnective pairing of the move from a strong -NAO toward positive NAO values with recent stronger +AO values we'll see a focus of troughing and cyclonic developments more centering effects for Northwest and Northern UK and Ireland with a building of higher pressure having greater impacts toward southernmost UK and Europe.
This will also pair with the MJO progressing from our region of the globe ie Western Hemisphere, South America and Africa into the Indian Ocean although at a lower amplitude again feedback shows cyclonic systems trend more Northwest and Northern trackways and I would suggest further plume opportunities are plausible given feedback signal of high pressure to our East and Northeast with similar trough placements to our west and southwest most likely.
Cheers. KW
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Active setups emerging in America and Europe with feedback of recent MJO progression and IMO very likely involving feedback of the Super El Ninò peak temperatures.
Starting in Europe we are seeing a highly above average temperature setup with records being broken and the first 30C recordings of the year across multiple days, again its not too surprising IMO given MJO and El Ninò feedback.
This will be the fuel for a potential storm system with anomalously high PWAT bringing a potentially significant wintry precip event along the Northwestern and Northern flanks.
America
On 24/03/2024 at 19:27, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Accompanying severe weather and flash flood threat progressing East, Northeast and Southeastwards with trends into a new low near the Carolinas coast into Thursday which might increase these threats.
On 24/03/2024 at 19:27, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Next cyclonic system moving into the Pacific Northwest and West Coast from Weds into Thursday bringing the next threat of low elevation flash flooding and the next snowfall event again high totals being signalled for the Sierras, this will transition into another system [cut off low] and move into SoCal during next weekend with low elevation flash flood threat and potential for snow at higher elevation.
On 28/03/2024 at 21:23, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Great representation of the MJO feedback as a high builds across East and Southeast USA and the cut off low into the Southwest as discussed previously.
As the cut off low energy connects to trough developments from Canada which is part of ongoing MJO feedback paired with the fuel from the aforementioned high across East and Southeast America this will give a setup conducive for a storm into Northeast States from now through April week 1.
This is likely to become a snowy system on its Northwest and Northern flanks potentially significant totals.
The next potentially significant flash flood threat will also arrive with this system particularly north central states into Northeast states dependant on storm intensity and track with some discrepancies within modelling.
As the next cyclonic system moves from the Pacific Northwest into the West Coast this transitions into a Rossby Wave Break Event in roughly a weeks time April 6th - 7th with cut off lows on each American Coast and the ridging & blocking across Central America through Canada which will likely connect to the Greenland High.
This setup also gives a below average - significant in areas across the west and east with above average - significant central and Canada
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As the Greenland High builds this will interact with an elongating Tropospheric Vortex from Alaska across a large part of the Arctic resulting in a significantly cold setup with 850hpa temperatures of at least -16 with indication of -18s too across Iceland with significantly below average temperatures at Surface and upper levels.
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7.6C and 131.8MM please
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Recapping this weeks events.
Scotland snow
As the cyclone developed across Northwestern France there is damage indicative of a tornado
As the system moved across Southwest England into Wales it produced a snow event as discussed.
Wind gusts from the main cyclone into Thursday reached 99kmh into the South Coast of England with an 89kmh value as the winds moved across Southeastern England.
On 24/03/2024 at 19:27, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Lots of areas with flash flood risks at lower elevations and many snowfall events predominantly at higher elevations though not exclusively.
Morocco, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, UK, France, Alpine regions, Italy etc.
A pattern which has been common in this El Ninò with a strong Jet Streak into Northwest Spain and Portugal bringing a heightened flash flood risk and an overall Southerly tracking Jet.
Looks like the strong Jet Streak has helped to produce what appears as a strong waterspout in Portugal
No surprises seeing a Red warning covering Avalanche danger in the Alps of Switzerland and Spanish alpine regions with the plethora of huge snowfalls including the current event which will give totals upto and above 100CMs. Further snow events are likely during April week 1 and potentially afterward.
"The Southern Alps also experienced a new significant snow episode. This is also the 4th major snow episode in the space of five weeks . 50 centimeters of snow fell in the Isola 2000 resort . Since February 24, the accumulation of new snow has reached 2.76 meters at 1860 m altitude."
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Stunning
Looking like the pressure will be at -> near record strength into the first days of April across Greenland an absolute beauty of a negative NAO overall and values now look to exceed those of January.
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Significant flash flood threat will develop across East and Southeast China as energies connecting to the MJO become slow moving troughing over this area likely Kelvin Wave - CCKW activities involved. This will extend into Taiwan and Japan.
With ongoing feedback of recent MJO progression the next cold air outbreaks are beginning with a classic representation of a Ridge-Trough-Ridge-Trough setup, these cold air outbreaks are developing across Asia and Russia with further significant snowfalls and significantly below average temperatures in areas affected during the last month roughly > Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Krgyzstan, North India, Nepal, Tibet, Southeast Kazakhstan.
Also snow events along the Russia & Georgian border and Turkey.
Great representation of the MJO feedback as a high builds across East and Southeast USA and the cut off low into the Southwest as discussed previously.
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On 21/03/2024 at 20:02, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Turkey being one of the main regions seeing huge snowfall amounts as multiple cut off lows move through with the 1st being part of a Rossby Wave Break Event which I've discussed in a few posts
On 21/03/2024 at 20:02, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Over the next 10 days a large swathe of Turkey will recieve significant amounts of snow with an area particularly toward the Southeast likely to see upwards of 100+ CM
On 21/03/2024 at 20:02, Kirkcaldy Weather said:As part of these rains - cut off low energy moves North Northeast this will bring a flash flood risk initially from East China into Japan
On 19/03/2024 at 02:14, Kirkcaldy Weather said:During Friday and into the Weekend a new system will move into the west coast with a new round of significant snowfall for the Sierras and the West > Northwestern States having a generally snowy & cold setup.
On 24/03/2024 at 19:27, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Impressive storm with significant snowfall with a few areas trending for particularly high totals
- South Dakatoa and Nebraska especially near their border
- As the low continues toward Lake Superior areas close to the Lake.
On 21/03/2024 at 20:02, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Per recent MJO progression feedback and IOBW warm phase this will continue a cold > significantly cold temperature setup extending across Australia
On 23/03/2024 at 03:00, Kirkcaldy Weather said:We also have a slow moving cyclone to the Northeast of Madagascar this will create a flash flood threat from Northeast Madagascar then extending across the Eastern portions of Madagascar.
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Ahead of the main deep cyclone there is a developing cyclonic Centre from Northwest France as this continues to move into the UK with a Lowering isotherm on its Western & Northwestern flank there is potential for a snow event particularly across Wales, most of this likely at higher elevations though cannot be discounted at lower levels too.
This trend was evident on the ensembles last night, still damaging wind threat into the South Coast but a concerning trend with a main damaging wind risk centering into Southeast England so I'd think warnings will cover the South Coast as discussed but possibly higher category warning criteria for Southeast England Thursday
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On 29/01/2024 at 14:25, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
We'll continue seeing patterns which link to El Ninò throughout March and I'd favour potentially the first few weeks or so of April, following that time it's a gradual move into ENSO Neutral with some themes continuing of heading into La Ninà by late spring and particularly Summer 2024.
Excellent
As we head into April blocking across the Atlantic, Azores and the Canadian Maritimes will transition into a strengthening Greenland High potentially a cut off high, no surprises here as we are seeing the strongest negative North Atlantic Oscillation values since Early through Mid January which was a prior timeframe which became dominantly focused with a Greenland High, this is also fitting into feedback of the MJO progressing through the Pacific and beginning to cross our part of the Globe including South America, Africa and the Western Hemisphere overall.
Paired with the typical El Ninò + Stratospheric warming [inc SSW] feedback its bang on.
Adding more details I'll start with my comments here
On 22/03/2024 at 01:54, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Worth paying close attention it's more the secondary system as it merges with the 1st cyclonic developments which then look to begin rapid cyclogenisis particularly toward March 27th close to the South Southwest of Ireland initially with some indicators of pressure even having cyclogenisis into the 950hpa values.
Quite a lot of developments over the next couple of days.
As areas of precip move into Scotland currently and through this morning & afternoon this will fall as snow, heavy in places and even at modest - potentially low levels as a supportive isotherm resides across Scotland from the previous system in the past few days.
During the morning there will be increasing instability as the troughing starts to intensify, this will bring widespread showers however the main thundery element will be most prominent across Ireland, Southwest England into Wales with indicators that a tornado is possible in the latter areas.
Looks like the cyclogenisis will take the pressure into the 950hpa range [a previous GFS had 948hpa]
Heading into Thursday the threat of possibly damaging wind gusts increases from the Celtic Sea, Bay of Biscay and moves into the English Channel. I'd expect a wind warning covering the South Coast of England for Thursday.
As this initial troughing clears Eastward this will open the door to colder conditions from the North during April week 1 with current trends for this to be most prominent across Northern areas of the UK.
With further trough developments into the latter part of April week 1 in the North Atlantic this will bring an increasingly above average precipitation setup adjusting further north through Ireland and the UK.
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Deja Vu
''There is a small chance that power cuts will occur and other services, such as mobile phone coverage, may be affected
There is a slight chance that some rural communities could become cut off
Where flooding occurs, there is a slight chance of delays or cancellations to train and bus services
Spray and flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
There is a small chance of travel delays on roads with some stranded vehicles and passengers, along with delayed or cancelled rail and air travel
Issued: 10:53 (UTC) on Sun 24 Mar 2024
A band of persistent rain and snow will move north across Scotland overnight Monday into Tuesday. At low elevations (below 150-200 metres) this will fall mostly as rain, with 35-45 mm falling quite widely over Fife, Angus and Aberdeenshire and perhaps more than 50 mm in some locations with surface water causing some spray on roads. At moderate elevations (above 150-200 metres) snow is more likely, mainly 1-2 cm of slushy deposits, but 2-5 cm possible in some places affecting higher transport routes. At higher elevations (above 300 metres ) 10-20 cm may fall causing travel issues on higher routes."
I'll be surprised if it doesn't get upgraded to an Amber and possibilities of extension further south.
Really cool meteorological dynamics involved here with a connection of Jet Stream energy combining to an ever increasing unstable atmosphere.
The SRH values give a great insight
As the atmosphere continues to destabilise we will have an increasingly Lowering isotherm from the East Northeast feeding into precipitation, combining the above dynamical aspects this will act to switch the rain into snow and given such a volatile atmosphere the trends are there for high precip rates ie snowfall rates.
As this system continues to develop there might be a spell with blizzard type conditions as an area of gales form initially toward the North Sea near Fife also toward the Tay Estuary, this could then transfer further Northeast perhaps nearing Aberdeen. Then across the Moray Firth into Inverness.
With it being late March it's just naturally less likely for snow to lay however I expect many of us across Fife, Angus, Perth and Kinross extending into Aberdeenshire seeing at least a few cm is a reasonable shout with surprises a high possibility particularly where the high snow rates set up.
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On 19/03/2024 at 02:14, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
As this system progresses East Northeastwards there is potential for a number of possible significant and severe weather events with a snowstorm on the northern and Northwestern flanks [Northern States] as it utilises the significant cold upper and surface level temperatures which are pulled in from Canada, and a significant flash flood risk paired to a potential severe weather outbreak on the Southern and Southeastern flanks across the heart of America progressing East and Northeast. Current timing is approximately March 24th through 29th.
Further excellent consistency within the models.
Impressive storm with significant snowfall with a few areas trending for particularly high totals
- South Dakatoa and Nebraska especially near their border
- As the low continues toward Lake Superior areas close to the Lake.
Accompanying severe weather and flash flood threat progressing East, Northeast and Southeastwards with trends into a new low near the Carolinas coast into Thursday which might increase these threats.
This storm is pushing the snowfall as far South as Mexico with further snowfall potentially significant totals toward Chihuahua.
This storm will also draw up anomalously dry air when combining with gusty winds this brings the next fire risk.
On 21/03/2024 at 20:02, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Good model consistency with this system and a trend for the troughing which moves across the Great Lakes and connects to the cut off low to produce a swathe of higher snowfall totals from Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois which moves across the Great Lakes and as the energy connection occurs the trend for a significant snow event continues to intensify toward Northeast America.
One of the areas at risk of highest precip rates and higher flash flood risk continues to be through Maryland, Delaware, Philadelphia with particular focus into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island with this gradually continuing North Northeast into Maine.
Recap of this systems impacts.
Next cyclonic system moving into the Pacific Northwest and West Coast from Weds into Thursday bringing the next threat of low elevation flash flooding and the next snowfall event again high totals being signalled for the Sierras, this will transition into another system [cut off low] and move into SoCal during next weekend with low elevation flash flood threat and potential for snow at higher elevation.
As discussed in my post above the active pattern across Europe and Africa to name a few is continuing, this isnt too surprising given its combining recent MJO feedback paired with the MJO currently crossing this region of the globe which will further boost cyclonic development. We've got the cut off low from the Rossby Wave Break Event merging to new cyclonic developments in the Atlantic close to Ireland and further cyclonic developments feeding into this merger creating a deep cyclone again from the Atlantic close to & across Ireland.
Lots of areas with flash flood risks at lower elevations and many snowfall events predominantly at higher elevations though not exclusively.
Morocco, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, UK, France, Alpine regions, Italy etc.
A pattern which has been common in this El Ninò with a strong Jet Streak into Northwest Spain and Portugal bringing a heightened flash flood risk and an overall Southerly tracking Jet.
Spring 2024 -> Northern Hemisphere Low Temperature & Snowfall Reports & Records (Social Media Content)
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Other noteworthy snow stats & events