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Kirkcaldy Weather

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Posts posted by Kirkcaldy Weather

  1. December mean temp for Scotland was 4.1 C - other years with 4.1 C December - 1991, 1977, 1932 "1932-33: Late October, snow fell in Scotland, an early start to the skiing season! Late February there was a Great Blizzard, for Ireland, Wales, South West England, Northern England, and the Midlands. Whipsnade recorded 2ft of snow, Harrogate and Huddersfield 30 inches, Buxton 28 inches! Very Snowy." 

    "1977-78: Mid January, 6 foot drifts! A week later, and 4 inches fell. Mid February saw 4 inches also. Late January, heavy snow in Scotland, drifting, 28 inches falling in parts! Mid February (see above) was very snowy in the North East, East and South West. February 11th had 1 ft in Durham and Edinburgh. Feb. 15-16th South West England, blizzard with huge drifts, sounds like my cup of tea!"

    Scotland East 3.7 C - other years - 2004, 1984, 1977

    2004/05- "Westerlies continued during January with the only notable snow event being another NW'ly incursion on the 18th, with big but brief snowstorms over Northern Ireland and south-west Scotland.

    February was another fairly mild month with frequent anticyclonic north-westerly regimes. There was a northerly blast around the 13th, but as the Arctic was unusually warm, there was little in the way of snow; however a rather more potent northerly occurred on the 19th/20th with snow showers in the northeast. The last third of February and early March had persistent easterly winds and snow showers, but generally limited accumulations on the ground. Inland parts of south-east Scotland, north-east England and Kent, however, often had significant accumulations. Overall this easterly spell disappointed many snow lovers."  

    "1984-85: Very cold and snowy, especially in Southern England.  Early January, there was snow in Eastern England. Mid January, East Anglia and Kent getting the goods, with 6 inches falling here. Mid January, South West England and South Wales (yippee!). Late January seeing snow in Scotland, and the prone spots, such as Aviemore, getting 2ft of level snow, Northern Britain as a whole affected though. Mid February, Southern England, 6-12 inches, substantial drifting taking place. 29th March gave Scotland snow. A memorable year. Snowy."

    Scotland North 3.9 C - other years- 2005, 1977, 1932

    2005/06 "Not much snow to speak of during January and February (the late February '06 easterly was even less potent than the Feb '05 one), but this changed into March. A northerly airstream during first week March brought snow showers for many, with 50cm in northeast Scotland and thundersnow widely reported around Aberdeen. More heavy snowfalls on the 12th March, which especially affected western Britain. Further snow in early April, with heavy snowstorm in north-east England on the 8th, and in south-east England late on the 9th."

    Surely no coincidence that both 1932 and 1977 keep showing up ( I am pretty sure these years came up when I did the analogue charts for ENSO back in September will check that when I have more time but going by those years something possibly brewing for late January and February? )

     

    • Like 8
  2. 23 minutes ago, Benvironment said:

    Temperature has been edging slowly upwards all day here. Currently 9.3C and still rising. Please make it stop!

    At least it will be cooler tomorrow as 850 hpa of around -5/-6 moves in (currently 10.4 C here) would rather be in Norway  - snowfall next 48 hours nmm-45-48-0.thumb.png.616df751d78cb2b43ddb7ed09c68bcd7.png

     

    6 minutes ago, Big Innes Madori said:

    Happy New Year tae A' on the Scotland forum

    Seldom look in these days as there never seems tae be any withur worth talkin aboot ?

    Be it summer that never happens or winter that we currently await with patience

    Big back tae Fkn work the morra Innes

    Back to clearing more neds oot eh  QQdUb.jpg

     

    • Like 9
  3. 13 hours ago, Klippie said:

    what else isn't allowed for future reference.

    discussion of cold spells that didn't materialize, last winters failed easterly, THAT ECM... 

    3 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

    So, new hobbies. Any ideas?

    All get together and find a way to destroy the PV, looks like it wants to try and go the full 12 rounds this winter  Though some tantalizing hints from GP....

    Dreadful here, heavy rain blustery winds 9 C about as far away from wintry as you can get.

    • Like 7
  4. 1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

    I know this is the Moans threads, but what I see his a little hypersensitivity to the weather!! It's the weather, not the outbreak of world war 3! I'm not seeing the weather I prefer right now... Namely cold and snow! But I certainly won't get over stressed about it! We have plenty of time left just yet... And if this year turns out to be a bust, so be it.... We all always have next time.. Every winter is the same... A couple of weeks in, and it's winter is over... Winter is garbage, the output is garbage..... And when summer arrives, we do it all over again.... I have the perfect solution... Spend winters in Canada and summers in the Mediterranean!!! Just need a lottery winner first folks... Oh and happy New Year...

    Amen. The way some carry on you would think the UK will never see snow again, patience is often the best trait when it comes to UK winters and trying not to get too downbeat whatever the outcome. If all else fails I am trying to keep my snow and ice twitter thread updated as often as possible

    • Like 2
  5. 1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

    Can any of the weather conditions be attributed to the Antarctic SSW? It's crazy! I have a few friends over there with PWS's and I frequent their sites to see what they are recording - some crazy stuff!

    Looks like that coupled with the Indian Ocean dipole have contributed towards the heat 

     

    Also a large "blob" of warm water near New Zealand 

    WWW.NZHERALD.CO.NZ

    Patch of water bigger than New Zealand has temperatures six degrees warmer than average.

     

  6. 31 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    I the end, the MJO didn't get near 7-8-1 and now looks to come out in 4-5. 

    So more Westerlies likely. 

    not quite correct as still in phase 7 and a few go into phase 8 (though some also go toward phases 4/5) but as I mentioned in my last post I still think we are in a bit of a lag period in terms of feedback of conditions. CFSO_phase_small.thumb.gif.6fe84a98c77c68b04be6534610f7d695.gifECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.thumb.gif.3d9228ec464f6ff86152be06c3e328e8.gifJMAN_phase_51m_small.thumb.gif.f5e64bc9c87b90abd753f8e987e3f4e5.gif http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt 

    • Like 2
  7. On 18/12/2019 at 15:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    Just out of interest given we are now 7 days from Christmas lets see how close the models are from 7 days out ( I will revisit with the actual chart for comparison after Christmas) 

    GFS gfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.3690721d81a8dffe51e3a8fff3fbbe2c.png CPTEC cptecnh-0-192.thumb.png.fe869d854a1cc417d71a223e006afca2.png NCMRWF ncmrwfnh-0-180.thumb.png.3a087405547fb59bbd084e4428bf88b0.png FIM fimnh-0-180.thumb.png.10614ef8352df206b21ab1c00e2e7921.png 

     NASA/GEOS5 geosnh-0-180.thumb.png.cf91f9d5cbd09bc53128599dc6cf2406.png NAVGEM navgemnh-0-180.thumb.png.b5bbab42032678cfbdc306779c82b9c2.png GEM gemnh-0-180.thumb.png.f8947728effb2ee7890f5474a893b2c7.png ICON/DWD iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.5d53bc158ba38c742d0ce5b5846cf52d.png   

    JMA JN192-21.thumb.gif.b3fbdcf4afe71cd0992bbf8d985eae9d.gif Many differences between them but key areas to me look to be Atlantic / UK and possibly most interesting the differences / struggles with the higher pressure toward Russia / Siberia.

     

     

    gfsnh-0-6.thumb.png.ecfdb84aa6fd378c4207749f2763740c.png Looks like the NASA/GEOS5 was closest for the UK but the JMA done well with the position of the lows in the Atlantic, overall the models struggled with the higher pressure over the UK and over done the lower pressure / trough to the east.

    On 23/12/2019 at 13:38, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

     With the MJO going through short spells in phases 3, 4 & 5 and the outlook for phases 6 / 7 upcoming that looks to tie in with what the models are showing DecemberPhase3all500mb.thumb.gif.57d6fda57b54057b4776eadbc566966d.gifimage.thumb.png.49aa86bc5d6801e18ecd75d57eb6dcd4.png1834473907_DecemberPhase4all500mb(1).thumb.gif.f1865ce6845b6a11bed7a68d2a5c13b8.gifimage.thumb.png.ed17e838e671650fc7917d0e200ccc57.png DecemberPhase5all500mb.thumb.gif.ba5c2b1f9c53d25b793ea6f72660a742.gifimage.thumb.png.b903380de042645f458f286eef227e57.png

    DecemberPhase6all500mb.thumb.gif.ce6f0605b46c91aa00f2b4b431bfb020.gif image.thumb.png.b7cf28e6d2b7d46372223ef9ada3c745.pngDecemberPhase7all500mb.thumb.gif.ec11da5ad0b7a90038d104ede89feb42.gifJanuaryPhase7All500mb.thumb.gif.2bfd9f5bfc644df84c6d8ffbebeb0faa.gifimage.thumb.png.b24bf236bafd48a2edc7dd604943f1ae.pngimage.thumb.png.7ad6e84d2b69778654e4e11b9b543449.png Gradually becoming more unsettled from the NW and a westerly theme (perhaps bordering on that dreaded "zonal" word popping up) phase 6 is a bit of a no mans land in terms of UK weather although still probably a westerly theme possibly weaker  not as unsettled and for us coldies phase 7 COULD be the key with a NE / E flow indicated, so I think I will be taking a break from model watching until signs of the MJO heading into phase 7 (hopefully) . 

    Hope everyone had a lovely Christmas. Well we are now in phase 7 MJO although models only want to stay in phase 7 for a few days ( I would say the longer the better should any higher pressure develop like shown in the those phase 7 charts above to give us a better chance at something colder, though I think we are in a slight lag period and still stick with that general outlook above, also the phase 7 for January looks more favourable than that for December so ideally remaining in phase 7 heading into the start of January would be best but not sure if that will happen.)

    Looking at the charts for the strat some warming perhaps developing during the first week of Jan and some hints of a possible displacement of the PV toward Scandinavia (though the models have struggled this year with strength of the PV and any warming so caution / low confidence with this)

    • Like 4
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