Kirkcaldy Weather

'Tornadoes' leave trail of destruction across UK: Country is battered as gale force winds and 450 lightning strikes wreak havoc - damaging homes and cars and overturning caravans | Daily Mail Online WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK The first possible tornado struck Knutton in Staffordshire, damaging cars and ripping off tiles at about 6.30am - before the second swept through the West Bridgford area of Nottingham at 7.30am. ‘Tornado’ hits town as strong winds batter the UK WWW.AOL.CO.UK Parks, bridges and tourist attractions across the UK were closed on Monday due to the windy weather conditions. The very active weather will continue to evolve throughout Europe with multiple significant weather events. Snow Ongoing significant snowfalls continuing across the Alps. Another potentially significant snow event could swing back into Albania, Kosovo, current trends really keen into Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, perhaps North Macedonia and parts of West and Southwestern Serbia, this event currently modelled for Sunday and Monday. There is also an ongoing snow event from the Belarusian border crossing Russia with significant accumulations. And another area of snow intensifying as it moves across Norway again further significant accumulations likely. Significant flash flood threat. A significant rainfall event will develop through Saturday into Sunday across Greece and moving into Turkey, after crossing the Black Sea this could continue bringing a significant flash flood risk into Moldova and Ukraine and possibly Belarus.

Want to start by revisiting the above statement from January, there can often be discrepancies between the various Meteorological Agencies particularly regarding ENSO statuses but we have BOM first to declare ENSO Neutral. Per my recent post here I discussed that the Super El Ninò Event had transitioned into more of a West Based Event, the latest ENSO discussion from NOAA agrees and gives further info https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf We'll have to await JMA and NOAA anouncing ENSO Neutral conditions and personally I dont get involved in debates a la Twitter last year with many arguing we weren't in an El Ninò though as I have discussed prior no 2 ENSO events behave indentically though there are common characteristics of each ENSO, and there can be lag in the Oceanic > Atmospheric 'coupling'. Newest ENSO outlooks from Met Office suggest ENSO Neutral heading into May with the oncoming La Nina conditions intensifying in the 1 & 2 Regions quite fast. Starting to see more details to add to some of my recent posts. Looking in more detail, the most significant developments upcoming, as the cyclonic system discussed here Merges with a cut off low in Northwest America this will link to the Tropospheric Vortex which is modelled to greatly intensify with indication potentially record breaking low pressure into Canada. Part of the MJO Indian Ocean > Maritimes feedback in an El Ninò in April as posted prior As shown in my recent post we continue to see the Atlantic Ridge in an El Ninò setup with another cold plunge during the next few days. Following on we have the high pressure moving into Ireland and the UK as mentioned prior plus as the Tropospheric Vortex developments occur in Canada this paired to the Negative PNA will see a high descending from West Canada across America with a new Arctic air outbreak, a relatively common pattern of the last few months which I've covered in the global thread. This will bring significantly below average temperatures. During the latter stage of April week 3 through April week 4 the Atlantic and Ireland-UK high will begin to take on the MJO and PNA feedback of blocking to our Northeast > Scandinavia and Russia, this will also retrograde into Iceland and Greenland as discussed prior with a good representation of many of the major European weather regimes / teleconnective feedback. Euro-Atlantic weather Regimes in the PRIMAVERA coupled climate simulations: impact of resolution and mean state biases on model performance LINK.SPRINGER.COM Recently, much attention has been devoted to better understand the internal modes of variability of the climate system. This is particularly important in mid-latitude regions like... Nothing surprising here factoring in recent MJO progression with an ongoing probable further feedback of multiple Stratospheric > Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events, *though the current zonal winds are above average. Overall a prolonged period with below average temperatures will continue with some significant anomalies across Europe in particular, we then look during April week 4 as the High retrograde gets going for these below average conditions to extend into the UK > Ireland. Thanks for reading. KW Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-spring-has-sprung/?do=findComment&comment=5058911

Want to start by revisiting the above statement from January, there can often be discrepancies between the various Meteorological Agencies particularly regarding ENSO statuses but we have BOM first to declare ENSO Neutral. Per my recent post here I discussed that the Super El Ninò Event had transitioned into more of a West Based Event, the latest ENSO discussion from NOAA agrees and gives further info https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf We'll have to await JMA and NOAA anouncing ENSO Neutral conditions and personally I dont get involved in debates a la Twitter last year with many arguing we weren't in an El Ninò though as I have discussed prior no 2 ENSO events behave indentically though there are common characteristics of each ENSO, and there can be lag in the Oceanic > Atmospheric 'coupling'. Newest ENSO outlooks from Met Office suggest ENSO Neutral heading into May with the oncoming La Nina conditions intensifying in the 1 & 2 Regions quite fast. Starting to see more details to add to some of my recent posts. Looking in more detail, the most significant developments upcoming, as the cyclonic system discussed here Merges with a cut off low in Northwest America this will link to the Tropospheric Vortex which is modelled to greatly intensify with indication potentially record breaking low pressure into Canada. Part of the MJO Indian Ocean > Maritimes feedback in an El Ninò in April as posted prior As shown in my recent post we continue to see the Atlantic Ridge in an El Ninò setup with another cold plunge during the next few days. Following on we have the high pressure moving into Ireland and the UK as mentioned prior plus as the Tropospheric Vortex developments occur in Canada this paired to the Negative PNA will see a high descending from West Canada across America with a new Arctic air outbreak, a relatively common pattern of the last few months which I've covered in the global thread. This will bring significantly below average temperatures. During the latter stage of April week 3 through April week 4 the Atlantic and Ireland-UK high will begin to take on the MJO and PNA feedback of blocking to our Northeast > Scandinavia and Russia, this will also retrograde into Iceland and Greenland as discussed prior with a good representation of many of the major European weather regimes / teleconnective feedback. Euro-Atlantic weather Regimes in the PRIMAVERA coupled climate simulations: impact of resolution and mean state biases on model performance LINK.SPRINGER.COM Recently, much attention has been devoted to better understand the internal modes of variability of the climate system. This is particularly important in mid-latitude regions like... Nothing surprising here factoring in recent MJO progression with an ongoing probable further feedback of multiple Stratospheric > Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events, *though the current zonal winds are above average. Overall a prolonged period with below average temperatures will continue with some significant anomalies across Europe in particular, we then look during April week 4 as the High retrograde gets going for these below average conditions to extend into the UK > Ireland. Thanks for reading. KW

Most well defined rain shaft I've witnessed in a long time.

Most well defined rain shaft I've witnessed in a long time.

As the cut off low across West America via this Rossby Wave Break Event transitions into Northern States the next significant flash flood threat will evolve as the cyclonic system enters Iowa. Newest data suggesting highest precip rates at the border of Nebraska, South Dakota and Iowa, with the flash flood threat moving into Minnesota and Wisconsin then progressing Northeastwards. Severe weather associated with this event too.

Active period of weather with this. Number of dynamics going on, we have a cold front which will be finishing its journey through Ireland and the UK by midday Monday. With a strengthening Jet Streak interacting with the cold front there are a few heightened threats these being increased wind gusts with trends for embedded potentially damaging gusts and also a potential for tornadic activities embedded along the cold front I'd suggest parts of Ireland and also Wales and Southwest England being particularly at risk though it's a wide area overall. To the Northeast of this active Jet Streak we have a deep cold pool moving in at 500hpa, this corresponding brilliantly with a pool of increased instability meaning the showers having a higher expectation of being thundery in nature and combining to the Lowering Isothermic values a wintry mix with snow mostly at high levels though not exclusively with hail and sleet to lower levels. Northwest, North and Northeast England and Scotland seeing the most of this activity. As this Arctic plunge descends through Europe this brings yet another significant snowfall event across the Alps, a very repetitive and common occurence during this El Ninò. I'm also noticing the signal of a significant snow event in Bosnia and Herzegovina from Wednesday through Friday. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-spring-has-sprung/?do=findComment&comment=5057797

Active period of weather with this. Number of dynamics going on, we have a cold front which will be finishing its journey through Ireland and the UK by midday Monday. With a strengthening Jet Streak interacting with the cold front there are a few heightened threats these being increased wind gusts with trends for embedded potentially damaging gusts and also a potential for tornadic activities embedded along the cold front I'd suggest parts of Ireland and also Wales and Southwest England being particularly at risk though it's a wide area overall. To the Northeast of this active Jet Streak we have a deep cold pool moving in at 500hpa, this corresponding brilliantly with a pool of increased instability meaning the showers having a higher expectation of being thundery in nature and combining to the Lowering Isothermic values a wintry mix with snow mostly at high levels though not exclusively with hail and sleet to lower levels. Northwest, North and Northeast England and Scotland seeing the most of this activity. As this Arctic plunge descends through Europe this brings yet another significant snowfall event across the Alps, a very repetitive and common occurence during this El Ninò. I'm also noticing the signal of a significant snow event in Bosnia and Herzegovina from Wednesday through Friday.

Ski resorts Australia: First snow falls on ski fields almost eight weeks ahead of winter WWW.9NEWS.COM.AU The first snow of winter has fallen at Australian ski resorts in NSW and Victoria. First Aussie mainland snow of 2024 WWW.WEATHERZONE.COM.AU Snow has fallen overnight in Australia's mainland ski resorts and continues to tumble down on Tuesday morning as a cold front sweeps across southeast Australia. As a heavy band of moisture...

Recent cold temperature records - low maximums & minimums via NOAA *Temperatures in Fahrenheit India South Africa Australia Argentina Chile

First 20C of the year yesterday with a max of 20.1C Similar here sitting on 114.13mm so far.

Tonnes of fascinating evolutions occuring teleconnectively I'll start by revisiting the Arctic Oscillation which I discussed here Taking the data from the above post Easy to see the -AO event has become even stronger than anticipated, the strongest positive values for a long time and stronger than during the whole entire winter season. We can watch as the extremely cold airmass associated with the Tropospheric Vortex begins to move from the Russian end of the Arctic across toward the Alaskan and Canadian end. Values at -28C 850hpa ongoing possibly some nearing -30C and still maintaining at least -24C at 850hpa upon the position shift. This can be noted from the above animations but delving slightly deeper. Trends show the coldest conditions becoming centred across Europe. Very fascinating setup hemispherically we've got a number of Rossby Wave Break Events. I have already discussed most of these and some of their impacts here Focusing on the North Pacific this looks the most impressive and set to continue development into an ongoing Rossby Wave Train - RWT We also have a developing Rossby Wave Break Event from the North Atlantic through Europe and North Africa by Mid April 14th > 15th. The right hand cut off low will be part of the significant cold temperatures across North Africa as discussed in my post in the global temperature thread however this will also bring a significant flash flood risk as a significant rainfall event occurs in Tunisia extending into Northeast and North Algeria. To fully understand the upcoming developments beyond this timeframe we need to look in detail at recent and ongoing teleconnective developments. To do this I'd like to revisit my posts from the start of January, January 20th and March 4th. Beginning with the MJO and El Ninò, a lower amplitude cycle was always going to occur and upon doing research this is a common occurence during the latter stages of strong/super El Ninò Events with the following excerpts from "The eastward propagation of MJO was also observed during the decaying stages of the three super El Niño events, but its intensity was weaker compared with the developing and mature stages." "3.3 Decaying stages The eastward propagation of the MJO could be observed during the decaying stages of the three super El Niño, but their intensity, duration and propagation distance were significantly weakened compared with those in the developing and mature stages (Figure 2). The spatiotemporal spectral analysis in Figure 3 also showed that power spectrum of intraseasonal eastward propagation during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño events were relatively stronger than those during the 1982/83 El Niño. The central periods of the eastward propagation for the MJO were mainly 40 days and 75 days during the decaying stages of 1997/98 El Niño, and it was primarily 40 days for the 2015/16 El Niño. However, there is no center of intraseasonal eastward propagation during the 1982/83 El Niño. The strong wave of eastward and westward propagation of lager than 90 days appeared in the decaying stages of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events, which may be induced by the conversion of the MJO energy to low-frequency energy of above 90 days (Li and Zhou, 1994; Li and Li, 1995). At the same time, the high-frequency wave activities of the eastward propagation were prominent at 20–30 days during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 El Niño. In addition, the eastward propagation center of zonal wave 2 was detected during the decaying stages of the 1982/83 El Niño. The evolution and composite results of the RMM index during decaying stages of three super El Niño illustrated that the MJO activity in the decaying stages is significantly weaker than that in the developing and mature stages. The MJO intensity in the decaying stages was the weakest, especially for the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events (Figure 2; Figure 4; Figure 5). The RMM indexes of phase 4–8 during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño changed from positive anomaly in the mature stages to negative anomalies, particularly in phase 6–8 (Figure 5C). The strong MJO activity led to the increase in the average RMM index of phase 4-5 in May 1998. The two robust MJO activities in June and July 2016 also enhanced the average RMM index of phase 1-2 during the decaying stages of the 2015/16 El Niño. Many studies had indicated that the robust MJO activity in May 1998 triggered the easterly anomalies, resulting in the termination of El Niño. After the MJO event, the Niño 3.4 index rapidly decayed from positive anomaly to negative anomaly (Takayabu et al., 1999; Miyakawa et al., 2017). Figure 2 showed that during the decaying stages of three super El Niño, when Niño 3.4 index turned from positive to negative, the MJO easterly existed in the eastern Pacific, which demonstrated that the MJO easterlies may accelerate the extinction of strong El Niño. Meanwhile, the MJO westerlies in April 1998 and June 2016 existed in the eastern Pacific, while the decaying rate of the Niño 3.4 index was prominently reduced. The anomalous MJO zonal wind amplitudes in the Indian Ocean and Pacific were weakened in the decaying stages, especially in the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño, while they were enhanced in the central and eastern Pacific, particularly in the 2015/16 (Figure 6). The MJO zonal wind amplitudes strengthened over the eastern Pacific, which may lead to the stronger 2015/16 El Niño. These results indicate that the MJO plays a critical role in the decaying stages of El Niño while it is necessary to further study the interaction between the MJO and the decaying stages of El Niño." Taking the MJO progression of late we see this evolution occuring again with the lowest amplitude involved with progression across the Indian Ocean. There are many areas of importance and interest here. With ongoing discrepancies between all models on amplitude and progression / timing of this cycle its no surprise seeing associated differences within the outputs which will continue until this is worked out however there are patterns which are increasingly probable given recent progression and continuing feedback of El Ninò which I will discuss below. As I discussed in my posts during January it's not overly shocking seeing the MJO decreasing in amplitude across the Indian Ocean given interesting recent developments involving the Indian Ocean Dipole. Taking the data from my post in January the IOD looked to weaken markedly and be at neutral - potentially negative by this current timeframe. Met Office BOM This weakening close to neutral has occured but a re-emergence into positive IOD conditions are occuring a bit earlier and stronger than those outlooks. Newest Data courtesy of Met Office and BOM Other seasonal models also trending into more of a noticeable +IOD Looking at upcoming developments and revisiting my post from October "I've enjoyed researching the PNA further extending more information than the bits I knew already and having found multiple papers there's a clear connection with the PNA and upstream blocks either Scandi Greenland or a mix of both which stems from Rossby Wave Breaking in most scenarios as we are and have witnessed lately." We are seeing the most negative PNA since Late February. Pairing this with the MJO in the Indian Ocean and the Maritimes in April in an El Ninò plus feedback typically seen in association with El Ninò From now through Mid April we see the Atlantic Ridge regime which could extend across Ireland possibly the UK for a time, with this transitioning into blocking to our Northeast, North and most likely Greenland too. As shown in my post from October and other occasions a negative PNA can lead to a cold - potentially significantly cold temperature anomaly from the Northeast-East Recent GFS outputs. Thanks for reading, KW ️ Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-spring-has-sprung/?do=findComment&comment=5057116

Tonnes of fascinating evolutions occuring teleconnectively I'll start by revisiting the Arctic Oscillation which I discussed here Taking the data from the above post Easy to see the -AO event has become even stronger than anticipated, the strongest positive values for a long time and stronger than during the whole entire winter season. We can watch as the extremely cold airmass associated with the Tropospheric Vortex begins to move from the Russian end of the Arctic across toward the Alaskan and Canadian end. Values at -28C 850hpa ongoing possibly some nearing -30C and still maintaining at least -24C at 850hpa upon the position shift. This can be noted from the above animations but delving slightly deeper. Trends show the coldest conditions becoming centred across Europe. Very fascinating setup hemispherically we've got a number of Rossby Wave Break Events. I have already discussed most of these and some of their impacts here Focusing on the North Pacific this looks the most impressive and set to continue development into an ongoing Rossby Wave Train - RWT We also have a developing Rossby Wave Break Event from the North Atlantic through Europe and North Africa by Mid April 14th > 15th. The right hand cut off low will be part of the significant cold temperatures across North Africa as discussed in my post in the global temperature thread however this will also bring a significant flash flood risk as a significant rainfall event occurs in Tunisia extending into Northeast and North Algeria. To fully understand the upcoming developments beyond this timeframe we need to look in detail at recent and ongoing teleconnective developments. To do this I'd like to revisit my posts from the start of January, January 20th and March 4th. Beginning with the MJO and El Ninò, a lower amplitude cycle was always going to occur and upon doing research this is a common occurence during the latter stages of strong/super El Ninò Events with the following excerpts from "The eastward propagation of MJO was also observed during the decaying stages of the three super El Niño events, but its intensity was weaker compared with the developing and mature stages." "3.3 Decaying stages The eastward propagation of the MJO could be observed during the decaying stages of the three super El Niño, but their intensity, duration and propagation distance were significantly weakened compared with those in the developing and mature stages (Figure 2). The spatiotemporal spectral analysis in Figure 3 also showed that power spectrum of intraseasonal eastward propagation during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño events were relatively stronger than those during the 1982/83 El Niño. The central periods of the eastward propagation for the MJO were mainly 40 days and 75 days during the decaying stages of 1997/98 El Niño, and it was primarily 40 days for the 2015/16 El Niño. However, there is no center of intraseasonal eastward propagation during the 1982/83 El Niño. The strong wave of eastward and westward propagation of lager than 90 days appeared in the decaying stages of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events, which may be induced by the conversion of the MJO energy to low-frequency energy of above 90 days (Li and Zhou, 1994; Li and Li, 1995). At the same time, the high-frequency wave activities of the eastward propagation were prominent at 20–30 days during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 El Niño. In addition, the eastward propagation center of zonal wave 2 was detected during the decaying stages of the 1982/83 El Niño. The evolution and composite results of the RMM index during decaying stages of three super El Niño illustrated that the MJO activity in the decaying stages is significantly weaker than that in the developing and mature stages. The MJO intensity in the decaying stages was the weakest, especially for the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events (Figure 2; Figure 4; Figure 5). The RMM indexes of phase 4–8 during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño changed from positive anomaly in the mature stages to negative anomalies, particularly in phase 6–8 (Figure 5C). The strong MJO activity led to the increase in the average RMM index of phase 4-5 in May 1998. The two robust MJO activities in June and July 2016 also enhanced the average RMM index of phase 1-2 during the decaying stages of the 2015/16 El Niño. Many studies had indicated that the robust MJO activity in May 1998 triggered the easterly anomalies, resulting in the termination of El Niño. After the MJO event, the Niño 3.4 index rapidly decayed from positive anomaly to negative anomaly (Takayabu et al., 1999; Miyakawa et al., 2017). Figure 2 showed that during the decaying stages of three super El Niño, when Niño 3.4 index turned from positive to negative, the MJO easterly existed in the eastern Pacific, which demonstrated that the MJO easterlies may accelerate the extinction of strong El Niño. Meanwhile, the MJO westerlies in April 1998 and June 2016 existed in the eastern Pacific, while the decaying rate of the Niño 3.4 index was prominently reduced. The anomalous MJO zonal wind amplitudes in the Indian Ocean and Pacific were weakened in the decaying stages, especially in the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño, while they were enhanced in the central and eastern Pacific, particularly in the 2015/16 (Figure 6). The MJO zonal wind amplitudes strengthened over the eastern Pacific, which may lead to the stronger 2015/16 El Niño. These results indicate that the MJO plays a critical role in the decaying stages of El Niño while it is necessary to further study the interaction between the MJO and the decaying stages of El Niño." Taking the MJO progression of late we see this evolution occuring again with the lowest amplitude involved with progression across the Indian Ocean. There are many areas of importance and interest here. With ongoing discrepancies between all models on amplitude and progression / timing of this cycle its no surprise seeing associated differences within the outputs which will continue until this is worked out however there are patterns which are increasingly probable given recent progression and continuing feedback of El Ninò which I will discuss below. As I discussed in my posts during January it's not overly shocking seeing the MJO decreasing in amplitude across the Indian Ocean given interesting recent developments involving the Indian Ocean Dipole. Taking the data from my post in January the IOD looked to weaken markedly and be at neutral - potentially negative by this current timeframe. Met Office BOM This weakening close to neutral has occured but a re-emergence into positive IOD conditions are occuring a bit earlier and stronger than those outlooks. Newest Data courtesy of Met Office and BOM Other seasonal models also trending into more of a noticeable +IOD Looking at upcoming developments and revisiting my post from October "I've enjoyed researching the PNA further extending more information than the bits I knew already and having found multiple papers there's a clear connection with the PNA and upstream blocks either Scandi Greenland or a mix of both which stems from Rossby Wave Breaking in most scenarios as we are and have witnessed lately." We are seeing the most negative PNA since Late February. Pairing this with the MJO in the Indian Ocean and the Maritimes in April in an El Ninò plus feedback typically seen in association with El Ninò From now through Mid April we see the Atlantic Ridge regime which could extend across Ireland possibly the UK for a time, with this transitioning into blocking to our Northeast, North and most likely Greenland too. As shown in my post from October and other occasions a negative PNA can lead to a cold - potentially significantly cold temperature anomaly from the Northeast-East Recent GFS outputs. Thanks for reading, KW ️

Whilst there will be ongoing MJO feedback some additional significant teleconnective developments of late giving a global temperature evolution featuring noteworthy amounts of cold / below average - significantly below average temperature scenarios throughout both Southern and Northern Hemispheres. The switch back into a strongly positive AAO [Antarctic Oscillation] which has been a persisting feature of this El Ninò will continue to have feedback across the Southern Hemisphere especially. However the main influence I believe will be the recent evolution of the 2023-2024 Super El Ninò into more of a west based El Ninò which occurs with Western Pacific ENSO regions [3,3.4 &4] being noteably warmer than Eastern Pacific ENSO regions [1&2] We can see this evolution via the NOAA ENSO SST animations upto April 3rd And via the 15 day smoothed means from cyclonicwx Doing my research I found the typical April temperature setup during a West Based El Ninò bearing in mind no two ENSO events are ever 100% identical and other teleconnective feedback also factors in, however it is a good match to the temperature evolutions from now through the next 10 days at least. One of the most noteable below average anomalies is across Australia, there were many cold records broken following cyclone Megan last month and I wouldn't be one bit shocked seeing further records tied and/or broken. Sticking in the Southern Hemisphere there are other noteworthy significant below average temperature anomalies in South America and South Africa. Moving to the Northern Hemisphere some of the most significant cold events, Alaska discussed here A predominantly cold pattern moving across the Middle East intensifying as we head nearer to Mid April with significantly below average temperatures potentially record breaking I'd imagine. 850hpa and surface temperatures. Dynamics involved see a new cut off low become very slow moving and maintaining intensity / reintensifying. Significantly cold temperature anomaly across Tibet. Cold - significantly cold anomalies will also develop across India particularly Northern India likely in part connecting to the Middle East cut off low / trough. Multiple cold air outbreaks farther north toward Russia though this looks likely to trend into Higher pressure and associated above - significantly above average temperatures. Northern Africa seeing a significant cold plunge this coming weekend Predominantly cool - cold setup initially before a gradual transition into above average, though the below average temperatures in the south are associated with Monsoon rains still noteably colder than average with above average rainfalls. Global view. @Midlands Ice Age

Though the MJO is moving through the Indian Ocean into the Maritimes at a lower amplitude than of late still some very noteworthy developments. A low currently moving through Japan will see moisture inflow registering the highest anomalously wet PWAT values Fueled by a very strong Jet Streak Following on an impressive Rossby Wave Break which connects to the MJO develops across the North Pacific with a cool sequence of cyclonic formation Northwest of Hawaii Ongoing very snowy pattern across Alaska into the Pacific Northwest producing significantly below average temperatures at surface and upper levels with values upto 20C below average with multiple cold air plunges. This Rossby Wave Break Event is transitioning into an ongoing significant flash flood threat which intensifies particularly though not exclusively toward the Gulf Coast States over the next few days. Looks like another Rossby Wave Break Event is likely by next weekend though exact positions of cut off lows and high pressure TBD

Additional China Rainfall stats

"This will see a large portion of Europe extending from Africa experiencing surface and upper level temperatures above - significantly above average I'd expect further temperature records potentially tied and broken." Other noteworthy rainfall, snowfall and cold temperature records recently and during March for the Pakistan stats which I covered in multiple posts over in the global thread.

As this cyclonic system develops and crosses the UK there are a multitude of developing dynamics. Sharp Thermal Gradient. Significant flash flood risk with a significant rainfall event. As this system continues to develop and undergo cyclogenisis as it crosses the UK there will be a sharp thermal gradient occuring on its northern and particularly Northwestern flanks, this combination will aid in the formation of a significant rainfall event with an associated significant flash flood risk, a few discrepancies on precise track between the models however South and Southeast Ireland, West and Northwest Wales, particular focus into Northwest England, and Scotland. As the sharp thermal gradient continues to intensify this will turn the rain to snow particularly across higher routes however mixing at low levels can't be ruled out, I expect main accumulations at this stage to be across the Pennines and Scottish Highlands. These below average temperatures will lead to a cold night on Tuesday with a frost a possibility. Into midweek the PWAT values once again become highly anomalous, wouldn't surprise me if records are broken at upper levels of the atmosphere for moisture. Similar to Kathleen/Olivia this moisture inflow is tropically sourced. We'll return into an above average temperature setup with this systems influence. All fitting in ideally with expectations this is an excellent teleconnective configuration for significantly cold air to be entreched across the Arctic I expect helping the Arctic Ice too @Midlands Ice Age Heading toward Mid April I'm watching for a plunge of Arctic air as troughing develops to the North of the UK and moves toward Scandinavia and Europe bringing a flow from the Northwest and North. Thanks for Reading. KW Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5055864

As this cyclonic system develops and crosses the UK there are a multitude of developing dynamics. Sharp Thermal Gradient. Significant flash flood risk with a significant rainfall event. As this system continues to develop and undergo cyclogenisis as it crosses the UK there will be a sharp thermal gradient occuring on its northern and particularly Northwestern flanks, this combination will aid in the formation of a significant rainfall event with an associated significant flash flood risk, a few discrepancies on precise track between the models however South and Southeast Ireland, West and Northwest Wales, particular focus into Northwest England, and Scotland. As the sharp thermal gradient continues to intensify this will turn the rain to snow particularly across higher routes however mixing at low levels can't be ruled out, I expect main accumulations at this stage to be across the Pennines and Scottish Highlands. These below average temperatures will lead to a cold night on Tuesday with a frost a possibility. Into midweek the PWAT values once again become highly anomalous, wouldn't surprise me if records are broken at upper levels of the atmosphere for moisture. Similar to Kathleen/Olivia this moisture inflow is tropically sourced. We'll return into an above average temperature setup with this systems influence. All fitting in ideally with expectations this is an excellent teleconnective configuration for significantly cold air to be entreched across the Arctic I expect helping the Arctic Ice too @Midlands Ice Age Heading toward Mid April I'm watching for a plunge of Arctic air as troughing develops to the North of the UK and moves toward Scandinavia and Europe bringing a flow from the Northwest and North. Thanks for Reading. KW