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    Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  1. Broken sunshine here on the Sunshine Coast in Essex. Hopefully that's the last of the gloom for a while.
  2. I remember many disappointments over the years when it felt like everyone was laughing at stupid old GFS and banking the UKMO option of an Easterly only for GFS to claim the prize.
  3. Government Health Warning: Get the cold in first, then worry about the detail.
  4. It would be rare for Hammond to go out on a limb too, so I expect the opinions of other experts are similar to his. I rarely post in here because I'm not an expert but I can reassure the younger members here that this winter has a long, long way to go. In 15 years of model watching it's rare that a cold spell is picked up beyond +180hrs and arrives as predicted. Watching each new output and reaching conclusions about the next 3 months is somewhat pointless and does not make for enjoyable or informative reading on this thread.
  5. Downgrade? For your area it was looking like rain all the way.
  6. Have a look at the traffic cams before you head out but personally, I'd leave it. Temps will drop later causing ice no matter what we get today.
  7. Near white-out here in Essex, main roads are already gridlocked according to Google Maps.
  8. We're in the green area but it's proper snow and starting to settle.
  9. Sleet here in North East Essex. Having to wait for passing cars as our streetlights are off until 5am.
  10. One of those things, we live in one of the warmer parts of the UK. I'm sure most northerners would swap their higher snow risk for our 2 months of daytime temperatures above 20oC in summer. My Scottish friend loves coming down to Essex during the summer holidays for our "warmth". As said previously East Anglia and the South East corner usually see transitional snow with these systems. NE or Easterlies are what you need round these parts.
  11. Alex says "Snow for a time in SE and EA", graphic was pretty much rain thoughout except Cambridgeshire and Norfolk. Obviously still subject to change but those of us living south of the A14 will be lucky to have anything other than a transitional snow to rain event during Sunday unless there's a significant change in the track in the next 24 hours.
  12. Loving the photos from down here in Essex. Never really understood the toy-throwing IMBY thing. It's like me complaining that the butchers shop in my village doesn't sell haggis, white pudding and fresh highlands Lamb. You don't find adventure if you don't go looking for it.
  13. Forget the snow risk, I think the storm surge onto Essex and Kent coasts would be more of a worry.
  14. Phew, just returning from 10 minutes in the Model Discussion. Well, I say "Model Discussion" it's more a case of "Show something that means you can jump to one of two conclusions, then get too excited about it, Discussion". As Luke said, get the cold in then see from there. My memory of the good winters is that the good stuff is hard to forecast until you're within 48 hours. Mainly because the "good stuff" for our region comes from streamers off the North Sea and easterly troughs. Both not easy to forecast in advance.
  15. Historical Note: Not that it means a great deal this time round but some may find it reassuring that GFS nailed the start of the cold spell in 2010. Stuck to its guns in FI and charged through hi-res in an unapologetic fashion. ECF didn't come on board until about 5 days before. UKMO didn't look great either at +144. Anyway, back to my quiet corner.