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Wivenswold

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    Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl

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  1. If the update about 30cm in Kent is true that will likely be a Red warning. The Kent end of the North Downs is a sweet spot for these streamer events, I was stuck in a snow drift on the M2 back in 1987, so I've experienced their full fury. I expect plenty of snow for many but the Orange zone will be Coastal Suffolk and Essex, East side of London and north Kent and north side of the South Downs. Yellow in a line from Scarborough to Southampton. A hunch, not scientific.
  2. Apps are totally useless in these situations, I really would give up on them and get a decent radar subscription (like the Netweather one perhaps?) These situations have always been nowcast territory, learn how to read synoptic charts, or sign-up free for a site like WindyTV that gives you so many easy to understand charts from which to learn, save a good radar and lighting tracker in your favourites and ditch those apps. Could I also point out that it's not the air temperature that decides if it's going to snow, it's the dew point. When the dew point falls below freezing only snow can
  3. No. When the dew point drops below zero the snow sticks to the surface water and settles. There's a few You Tube videos out there of rain to snow events.
  4. Could we pin this to the top of every page on the MOD thread and leave it there forever? It's so much easier to refer those hyperventilating over permutation 34 at day 9 to this invaluable advice rather than explain how it all works.....again.
  5. Wivenswold

    DSCF2712.jpg

    We could be looking down at a stormy sea or up at a snow-covered moor. Beautiful contrast.
  6. I'm not waiting up, a clear, cold night to come in Essex. Time to finish off the Stollen and drift off to sleep.
  7. I really don't think any model will give you the certainty you crave from the best suite. This is an unusual set-up, we don't know which model had the best handle on it. I've even known GFS to come through, it called the December 2009 snow from +384 out while the supposedly better suites (including the Met Office) kind of fell in line at only a week out.
  8. Having wanted several of these to move South over the years, I'd say that they simply have "a habit of shifting" at this timescale, not that they trend South. Anyway, it's a Nowcast situation until the cold is established. Charts at 48hrs can be misleading at the moment.
  9. Hey, welcome to the forum. It'll help us all a lot if you could put your location in your member details so we can all see where you're reporting from. It'll also save you lots of replies asking where you are.
  10. Very Choppy here with the frequent reassuring "bang" as something else is liberated from its moorings. I have to say, despite that, I'm thoroughly enjoying listening in awe at Mother Nature. It's pitch black and the chimney is whistling at me. My cat Pip is pretending not to be concerned, right next to me, for hours.
  11. Always best to assess the warnings given after the event and certainly after daylight. Those with the worst conditions likely can't report in as they've lost power. The effects of recent rainfall would also amplify the risks associated with windy weather as soft ground gives up its support more easily. T Anyway, The Solent round to Ramsgate is where the worst will hit, in a couple of hours from now.
  12. Still quite calm here in NE Essex but in the last few minutes you can hear winds aloft, just had our first meaningful gust.
  13. If the forecast holds, this will be at the higher end of what could be considered a normal winter storm. Its origin and the cold air wrapped up in it makes this one a little different and marginal dew points just add a little drama. As for damage, loose things, damaged branches, a few powerlines maybe. Everyone in the South is locked-up so human impacts should be minimal.
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