shuggee

In my mind, the latest outputs, and people's reactions are understandable, but there's been one missing element. We've had great synoptics already this season and in late autumn, but not deep cold making it to the UK. Those charts have always stayed out at T+168 and beyond - Fantasy Island, a name that does what it says on the tin. However, things are about to change that might (an important caveat) bring the missing element to support blocking oooop north - a warmer than average stratosphere. We had this in mid November 2010 and it delivered big time. We've got the synpotic potential but just need that last domino to fall and so far the effect of a record cold stratosphere has perhaps prevented what many members want to see. That willl change in 14-21 days time, and in about 7 days time expect the models to start picking up its effect. And that's Christmas! Stratosphere thread here http://forum.netweat...watch-20122013/

That's what I end up thinking all the time in these situations Norrie!

Model Thread obviously isn't the place to post radar reports, twitter feeds etc about tonight's precipitation moving in from the west. So there's a shiny new thread exactly for tonight's bonanza of curtain-twitching, feverish radar reporting and lamp-post watching here: http://forum.netweat...ighttime-watch/ The regional threads for a more local perspective are also a good place to chat away.

With lots of speculation about Sunday evening filling up and being reported/removed as off topic from the Model Thread, here's a separate thread for a nationwide perspective on tonight's precipitation moving in from the west. Will it snow where you are? (Probably not :winky:). Lampposts at the ready.

I'd say it's more or less certain you won't see any snow in Irvine Norrie. Prestwick airport already reporting positive dew points with uppers above you already only -2 or -3ºC. It's 'touch and go' for anywhere north and/or east/southeast of Renfrewshire. Preferably high up! EDIT - surprised it's reached 4ºC at EDI this afternoon, and Strathallan in Perthshire reporting 5ºC. Tropical!

Here's the NMM for 02h00 to compare: I'd wager that the truth will turn out somewhere between the two.

That's my understanding too John. My Ladybird book on the Stratosphere has a Janet and John (is it you!?) description that says exactly that.

3.0ºC

Here you go snowman: http://forum.netweat...t-update-times/

Magnetometer barely registering, but Bz nicely negative. Possible sightings, further north than the Central Belt would help and of course it's chucking it down here...

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I understand that most of the programme's studio-discussion element is filmed in Sir Patrick's house. But he has been increasingly hard to understand, and perhaps it is for that reason that his contribution has become less and less.

A sun pillar Catch? bit.ly/Sa3UkK

6.8ºC

Specasavers indeed. If anyone is having trouble reading a graph - as BFTV provided here's the raw data: 1990s average minima is 6,426,100km2 Current extent is 6,288,400km2 I only posted this becasue it is so shocking, unbelievable, scary, astonishing... In less than twenty years this Is what has happened: It now.takes until the end of October to reach the point that used to be the average minimum at the height of summer

That graph shows I am right Keith! As do the figures that BFTV posted. Not sure why you're not understanding this? The red line is 2012, i.e.now and the middle of the three grey dotted lines (the one that's medium shaded) is the average for the 1990s.

Interesting that we're beyond mid October and not even at the 1990s average minimum yet.

Some things never change, and some people never learn, year in, year out... Back on topic please - shall we discuss the weather?

Last night's magnetometer. In terms of strength and timing, it rarely gets better than that for sightings in the UK. Was cloudy here at 23.30...

Patchy cloud about here this evening. And i can't go out in the car club car either Bz negative and beyond -10.

lol East Lothian is next to Edinburgh PM, not in the 'very far north of the UK' - that'll be another 250 miles to Caithness!

10ºC on the nose.

Have a read here androcles: http://ibis.grdl.noa...ries_global.php 6cm rise measured over 20 years.

Spike in activity at the moment. One to watch as the evening progresses?