UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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12z seems broadly consistent to me, zonal, MLB back to zonal of a more PM variety, much the same as the ECM in its broad projection I would say. I don’t know about backtracks, it just looks like standard inter run variation to me. Still dryer and colder for a time looks pretty likely now, so amen to that.
That would tie in the MetO 15 dayers with the emphasis on colder in the North and average in the South.
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Anyway apologies to knocker for not reading the post he directed me to prior to my post. I've now got far greater worries to worry about as I've got to contact my consultant first thing tomorrow as I may have a blood clot on my leg from the TKR I had done in March.
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IMO using a polynia as the sole reason is misleading. As for kknocker statement again misleading as warmer waters have only be found entering the NE Peninsula of Antarctica whilst SST's elsewhere have been below the average, hence the advancement of the ice. Like I said earlier lets await the data for salinity first before we all jump to conclusions, I've a feeling that these will come back negative.
Edit; Just seen post 784 and I've no arguments with Spencer's or Christy's work, it is amusing though how proponents of AGW will utilise data from these two when it suites but will be the first to stick the daggers in when it doesn't.
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Out of interest when was the last snowy cold February?
February 96 around here, we had 15" of snowfall. Prior to that February 91 brought us 6" but it soon disappeared two days later, then in February 79 we got a 10" dumping with huge drifts which laid on the ground for over 10 days.
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Many reasons have been suggested (and some evidence gathered) for the sea ice increases, not just salinity changes. Does it even matter to you if there's evidence or not anyway? You've shown time and time again that you simply dismiss anything that doesn't suit your position, such as ocean heat content increases, the fact that the IPCC work is done for free, that Michael Manns work is sound and supported by dozens of other studies, etc.
Anyway, if you want to discuss maritime law and your hopes that the people stuck on the ship were left to freeze to death (Christian morals eh), perhaps you should take that stuff elsewhere?
Firstly Mann's work has been supported only by his peers and not independently validated, so that means jack really. Secondly I've yet to be proven wrong on ocean heat content as the search still goes on for this missing heat. Also the main reason for sea ice increasing has to be down to ocean temps decreasing, as well as other factors you yourself highlighted previously. I await the salinity results before casting further judgement but if these come back normal then the theory of melting ice being responsible is a dead duck in the water.
And I don't wish people to freeze to death, but these idiots brought it upon themselves and have risked the lives of others in attempts at rescuing them.
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My first real moan of the season is this so here goes. I'm a little disappointed that any projected cold spell has been put further back towards the start of next month and as it stands we could be looking at a relative rather cold spell than a very cold one, add to that my lack of interest for cold and snow in February due to only seeing that month deliver the goods three times in over forty years, then this winter would make it three on the trot with little or no snow. Still we can hope for a February 96, 79 or 47 winter where in this neck of the woods we did rather well.
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I wonder when the alleged scientist will publish the data for the alleged decrease in salinity which they allege was the reason for the increase in ice to start with, due to the amount of alleged meltwater entering the ocean. Also will the cruise owners be held accountable under Maritime law, as surely they should foot the bill for such a costly rescue.
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Lol, the jolly buoys outing has been an embarrassment for anyone who cares about science and it's integrity. These idiots should have been left to their own devices and hopefully those concerned will be billed for this gross incompetence.Not to be missed, so they were idiots.http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=939155
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The glacier tongue has obviously undergone a rather significant reduction actually S.I. ?
If you read up on the collision in 2010 you'll find out just how much it has 'shrunk'. As for 'ice shelf'? The only shelf I can think of as being 'involved' is Ross ( quite a way around from Mertz but the parent of B09B).
If you look up the history of the particular Berg you might also increase you're knowledge of the situation leading up to the 2010 collision. Of course you'll be fully aware of the concerns of the impacts that the collision, and subsequent grounding of the mega Bergs had and why it is important to study the area ( part of the remit of the expedition) and the possible global impacts that the event may have lead to?
Out of interest, seeing as you appear to have concerns about the validity of the mission, how many areas of research were involved in the voyage and which leg of the voyage were they on?.
Lol. it's shrunk so much that they had to go looking for ice so they could get rescued. Meanwhile back on planet reality the world watches with amusement, pull the other one GW it's been a disastrous PR campaign from start to finish and one which is highly amusing to everyone bar the activists.
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GFS I reckon on the money here, expect ECM 00Z to move towards GFS, would love to be wrong but ECM in FI seems inaccurate a lot
I would have agreed but for the fact that the MetO are singing from the same hymn sheet and i doubt they would be suckered in.
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Well seeing as they deployed their 'Argo' buoys prior to becoming entombed in collapsing mega-berg then we'll have years of data that will help answer the questions of just how badly B09B is impacting the formation of Antarctic bottom waters and affecting the local ecosystem (including the penguins!)
A collapsing mega berg.
The best part of this is how a journalist from one of the world greatest advocates of terrorism the guardian are entombed in ice, fantastic. The only scientific conclusions that the world has come too, is the freeloading happy clappy's have shown just how far the ice shelf has extended at a time when the "alleged" scientific consensus were telling us it's shrinking. -
Nope, I stand by my comment, pressure needs to fall to the South / SE of the UK for the cold to be advected west to our shores properly otherwise we will end up in a nomans land as we've seen many times before with the cold not quite making it.
The ECM is a good run but as I said we're not quite there yet but moving in the right direction.
A fair assessment of what is still needed to get the cold to these shores, slowly but surely we do seem to be getting there and over the next few days we should have a much clearer picture. However we all know just how pear shaped events from the east can become, so the usual caveats will apply right down to +72 IMO.
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Highest it has ever been? Clowns? Propaganda arm?
You're not usually the one to accept that kind of tabloid exaggeration and sensationalism, Stew?
But it's a valid point though as it's the most farcical event in a long time and one which warms the cockles of my heart. I wonder what scientific conclusions can be drawn from this jolly boy's outing I wonder?
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Absolutely agree CH...Snow can be great but, once in a while, spending a winter in shirtsleeves and not giving half one's income to EON, or whomever, is also something to savour...
But we spend 9 months of the year in short sleeves to start with, so it's hardly a novelty its it. Now 9 months of cold and only 3 of warmth would be.
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So if we believe some on here we should discount the ECM, UKMO and the MetO updates as the GFS is king and it's evolution will be the one which is right.
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Oldie but good onehttp://www.climatechangefacts.info/ClimateChangeDocuments/LandseaResignationLetterFromIPCC.htmChris Landsea's letter resigning from IPCCThe points he made seem mostly vindicated and then some almost ten years on.
It's a valid point he makes regardless of one's opinion on AGW, we still see this time and time again where the blame for any weather phenomenon is laid at the door of AGW, it certainly adds nothing to the scientific debate and even less to the credibility of the science, which is shocking as there are many a good and honest scientists working in this field.
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Polar Maritime
Posted Today, 08:55
I agree Winter79, and how some posters can not see a pattern change towards the end of the month is beyond me.
I think that is the main point steelmark, which I why I aked PM to quantify/clarify his post. There's no real point in asking why people can't see a pattern change coming later this month, without providing some sort of explanation/rationale to back it up...preferable with charts. That type of post is one that definately confuses new members and experienced ones alike imo.
All very well shed, but like the posts above say if the experts see a change to much colder weather then I think I'll take their word over anyone else's on here. I know it's the model thread and we can only discuss what's being shown, which as you state is correct.
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Read it again and Google the meaning of Contra
18 Jan 2014 to Saturday 1 Feb 2014:
"Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types later this month."
This prognosis into late Jan-early Feb is based on some emerging signals from UKMO modelling (i.e. contra EC32). I might be able to offer more on this for you all over next few days.
Edited by fergieweather, Today, 17:18.
Lol, I think I'm fairly well educated enough to understand the meaning of Contra, however when it comes actually to reading a post correctly, well that's a different matter altogether.
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Beat news today IMO is from Ian when he said (before the ECM) that the models we see haven't yet picked up the cold signal for latter in the month. Hopefully the ECM was just the start of them coming onboard
He was basing his thoughts on the awful ECM32 by itself though.
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Well the GFS zonal to cooler zonal, the ECM much better but I have little faith with it when it comes to modelling these kinds of blocking synoptics, I can’t actually think of a time when its outperformed the GFS with this type of evolution, anything else almost every time, but not this sort of blocking.
Disagree, the ECM is much better at handling blocks to our East than the GFS and I'm sure the stats will back this up.
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Now, now are you saying the LIA was global, because if not then why would this be. Personally I think the. LIA was global and it's only a lack of reliable proxies in the SH which says different. Still we have a real time lab event so one way or the other we will all find out.A global fall of temperature would be ideal evidence, too...
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It's a fluid situation, so until we start the next solar cycle we won't know as of yet.
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This is true. Too many times have I seen posts from Ian F stating Cold, then Mild, then Average, then Cold, then Mild... Don't get me wrong, he obviously know's what he's talking about, but whether MOGREPS does is another question.
Indeed, and why I still think the ECM32 are only fit for the trash can.
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The best part of this is how a journalist from one of the world greatest advocates of terrorism the guardian are entombed in ice, fantastic. The only scientific conclusions that the world has come too, is the freeloading happy clappy's have shown just how far the ice shelf has extended at a time when the "alleged" scientific consensus were telling us it's shrinking. 
Meto Uk Further Outlook
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
At this rate it will be April and we'll still be looking at possible, maybe and could turn colder towards the latter end of the month.