UV-RAY

At this rate it will be April and we'll still be looking at possible, maybe and could turn colder towards the latter end of the month.

That would tie in the MetO 15 dayers with the emphasis on colder in the North and average in the South.

These are the latest. http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/preid/sst/reynolds_antarctic.html

Anyway apologies to knocker for not reading the post he directed me to prior to my post. I've now got far greater worries to worry about as I've got to contact my consultant first thing tomorrow as I may have a blood clot on my leg from the TKR I had done in March.

IMO using a polynia as the sole reason is misleading. As for kknocker statement again misleading as warmer waters have only be found entering the NE Peninsula of Antarctica whilst SST's elsewhere have been below the average, hence the advancement of the ice. Like I said earlier lets await the data for salinity first before we all jump to conclusions, I've a feeling that these will come back negative. Edit; Just seen post 784 and I've no arguments with Spencer's or Christy's work, it is amusing though how proponents of AGW will utilise data from these two when it suites but will be the first to stick the daggers in when it doesn't.

February 96 around here, we had 15" of snowfall. Prior to that February 91 brought us 6" but it soon disappeared two days later, then in February 79 we got a 10" dumping with huge drifts which laid on the ground for over 10 days.

Firstly Mann's work has been supported only by his peers and not independently validated, so that means jack really. Secondly I've yet to be proven wrong on ocean heat content as the search still goes on for this missing heat. Also the main reason for sea ice increasing has to be down to ocean temps decreasing, as well as other factors you yourself highlighted previously. I await the salinity results before casting further judgement but if these come back normal then the theory of melting ice being responsible is a dead duck in the water. And I don't wish people to freeze to death, but these idiots brought it upon themselves and have risked the lives of others in attempts at rescuing them.

My first real moan of the season is this so here goes. I'm a little disappointed that any projected cold spell has been put further back towards the start of next month and as it stands we could be looking at a relative rather cold spell than a very cold one, add to that my lack of interest for cold and snow in February due to only seeing that month deliver the goods three times in over forty years, then this winter would make it three on the trot with little or no snow. Still we can hope for a February 96, 79 or 47 winter where in this neck of the woods we did rather well.

I wonder when the alleged scientist will publish the data for the alleged decrease in salinity which they allege was the reason for the increase in ice to start with, due to the amount of alleged meltwater entering the ocean. Also will the cruise owners be held accountable under Maritime law, as surely they should foot the bill for such a costly rescue.

Lol, the jolly buoys outing has been an embarrassment for anyone who cares about science and it's integrity. These idiots should have been left to their own devices and hopefully those concerned will be billed for this gross incompetence.

Lol. it's shrunk so much that they had to go looking for ice so they could get rescued. Meanwhile back on planet reality the world watches with amusement, pull the other one GW it's been a disastrous PR campaign from start to finish and one which is highly amusing to everyone bar the activists.

I would have agreed but for the fact that the MetO are singing from the same hymn sheet and i doubt they would be suckered in.

A collapsing mega berg. The best part of this is how a journalist from one of the world greatest advocates of terrorism the guardian are entombed in ice, fantastic. The only scientific conclusions that the world has come too, is the freeloading happy clappy's have shown just how far the ice shelf has extended at a time when the "alleged" scientific consensus were telling us it's shrinking.

A fair assessment of what is still needed to get the cold to these shores, slowly but surely we do seem to be getting there and over the next few days we should have a much clearer picture. However we all know just how pear shaped events from the east can become, so the usual caveats will apply right down to +72 IMO.

But it's a valid point though as it's the most farcical event in a long time and one which warms the cockles of my heart. I wonder what scientific conclusions can be drawn from this jolly boy's outing I wonder?

But we spend 9 months of the year in short sleeves to start with, so it's hardly a novelty its it. Now 9 months of cold and only 3 of warmth would be.

So if we believe some on here we should discount the ECM, UKMO and the MetO updates as the GFS is king and it's evolution will be the one which is right.

It's a valid point he makes regardless of one's opinion on AGW, we still see this time and time again where the blame for any weather phenomenon is laid at the door of AGW, it certainly adds nothing to the scientific debate and even less to the credibility of the science, which is shocking as there are many a good and honest scientists working in this field.

All very well shed, but like the posts above say if the experts see a change to much colder weather then I think I'll take their word over anyone else's on here. I know it's the model thread and we can only discuss what's being shown, which as you state is correct.

Lol, I think I'm fairly well educated enough to understand the meaning of Contra, however when it comes actually to reading a post correctly, well that's a different matter altogether.

He was basing his thoughts on the awful ECM32 by itself though.

Disagree, the ECM is much better at handling blocks to our East than the GFS and I'm sure the stats will back this up.

Now, now are you saying the LIA was global, because if not then why would this be. Personally I think the. LIA was global and it's only a lack of reliable proxies in the SH which says different. Still we have a real time lab event so one way or the other we will all find out.

It's a fluid situation, so until we start the next solar cycle we won't know as of yet.

Indeed, and why I still think the ECM32 are only fit for the trash can.