Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

UV-RAY

Members
  • Posts

    3,600
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

Everything posted by UV-RAY

  1. It's frustrating but to be honest I was expecting this go the way of the pear, yes we have a strong block to our NE and lowering heights over the Med but we still need heights to build towards Greenland for anything sustained and for that we have to rely on a SSW, which may or may not happen and even if it does we still need some luck for it to fall into a favourable position.
  2. I'm fast losing interest in this winter, personally I feel we could have to wait until med Feb onwards for any sustained cold, if at all.
  3. Lol, we've just wasted 72 hours of chasing phantom easterlies, again. Looks like the MetO cautionary approach was fully justified with the majority of the UK just seeing a colder but still a wet week and then the prospects of more unsettled but milder weather. Roll on spring!
  4. Well that's not the update I was looking for, in fact I'm starting to think that this winter will go the way of the last two around these parts.
  5. I think Ian is just reiterating how much uncertainty remains in the outlook.
  6. Agree, but it can also spring up out of nowhere and tomorrow we could be looking at the first signs of one emerging.
  7. Isn't that why it's called sudden though, let's get the cold in place first then worry about how long and how cold.
  8. Yes Nick and I may have to review my thoughts on Easterlies delivering the square root of Jack to these parts, awesome chart!
  9. If the GFS and UKMO do verify then the potential for disruptive snow initially from the Midlands Northwards Monday-Wednesday thereafter those further South, must be high on the agenda for next week. What is quite remarkable is how quickly this has upgraded from a block to our East and being a slow burner to a potential wintry week ahead.
  10. It's unusual to see so many changes in their outlook over a few days. I wouldn't despair as all the models bar Carinthian's Austrian model have been all over the place this last week or two. I expect lots more upgrades, downgrades and upgrades again over the next few weeks.
  11. I would say when there is consistency over a few days, I mentioned over in the MetO thread that I would expect them to come on board by Friday if the models are still on the money for cold.
  12. Actually he did mention that a Northerly was one of the options yesterday.
  13. I think any updates will come towards the end of this week as we all know just how volatile easterlies can be. so I think they'll play this one safe until they are certain in jumping of the fence.
  14. I think when we have a west based QBO then higher solar output tends to favour SSW, or so the stats say. I'm sure one of our many resident experts will give you a far more scientific explanation than mine however.
  15. Indeed, and if one looks at the output this time last week a cold snap/spell next week wasn't even on the cards. Just shows how the weather can make fools out of most of us.
  16. Excellent cross model agreement but what impresses me more is how accurate Carinthian's updates have been throughout this winter, and why are the models that they use so much better than anything else at picking up features weeks in advance.
  17. Well we've seen some cracking output this evening but I remain very cautious when anything from the East is forecast, more so when it's a Scandi high as these often fail to push far enough westwards across the UK leaving those out in the West still under an Atlantic regime much like we've seen the past two winters. Leaving the pessimism aside from an IMBY perspective and I'm still more than pleased at what is being offered, in fact I really think we could be in for a stonking February with a trough to our SW and heights to our NE with or without a SSW event although we will still need too see strong wave activity attacking the PV.
  18. True, but that's when we've an established block in place with the Atlantic trying to break through, here we have the block trying to get a foothold with the Atlantic trying to push through.
  19. I think this is a very good point with anything progged from the East, how many times have seen stella charts downgraded as we approach +0. On the bright side at least we've got cracking output to discuss rather than where's the next storm going to hit.
  20. Interestingly the Korean long range model is going for such a set up but from mid February. Interesting developments but I feel it's a little too progressive, I feel we'll end up in no mans land until the latter part of this month before we start seeing much stronger heights to NE pushing westwards.
  21. It's nowhere near the mildest winter for some years around these parts, mostly frost free and only two light dustings of snow but temps have been around average to slightly above for most of the time.
  22. Indeed Nick, far too much variance at this moment in time so I'll keep my feet firmly planted on terra firma until the upstream pattern is resolved.
×
×
  • Create New...