UV-RAY

Facts are only any good Keith when it suites a warming agenda the rest of the time the goalpost will moved to fit the theory.

Lol, when do they do that when it's cold records that are broken.

Weirdo!

Are we about to see the models do a u-turn, looks like my throwing in the proverbial towel could be the key to an impending cold spell. I'll carry on writing it off.

Very harsh calling someones hard work a fantasy, by all means say the original was bust but fantasy implies that it's nothing better than a wild guess which is a real insult as you can see the amount research and work that has gone into issuing this.

Yes but not IMBY they didn't, 2012 only brought a freezing rain event although to be fair nearly all Scandi heights deliver next to nothing for those out West. Like I said though if the block remains in situ for the next 7-10 days then we are still in with a chance, I'm still of the opinion that we'll end up just on the wrong side of said block throughout the rest of this winter, which tended to happen throughout the nineties and noughties.

I know but we very rarely get a cold spell in February after a mild December and January, granted it's the only the 11th of January but unless we see a change in the outlook soon then the chances of a prolonged cold spell will be receding fast. The next 7-10 days are crucial IMO on how much influence heights over to our NE have on the upstream pattern, if they remain robust then we still have a chance.

You was suppose to cheer me up by saying the opposite.

Indeed, but I'm going with a gut feeling and that any cold and snow will be very brief if at all for the latter. This winter is of a similar vein to those nightmarish ones of the nineties and noughties.

So the record cold in the states is down the circulation of the jet and heights over the Ne Pacific, yet our bad weather could be down to climate change. Lol, they are making up as they go along.

Nothing in the model output this morning convinces me that a cold spell is imminent anytime soon, in fact I would say we have every chance of the Azores High dictating our weather pattern for the rest of this month at least. Hopefully not but I stand by my comments yesterday of a few days of cold at best is the best we can hope for the remainder of this winter, bar any favourable synoptics developing if we see a SSW.

Indeed and I'm expecting another well below average spring, besides everyone knows winter starts in spring.

Pretty grim really. My optimism which has been evident since October really has now reached critical proportions. I really can't see anything in the way of sustained cold coming this way anytime soon, there's no scientific reasoning whatsoever just a gut feeling that this winter reminds me of all those bad winters of yesteryear, with little in the way of snow or ice for anyone during December and the first part of January. It's a grim picture and unless we see a SSW and hopefully see the dice fall in our favour then this winter will be restricted to just the odd day here and there for cold and maybe snow.

This winter really is pants and I really can't see anything cold happening within the next 2 weeks at least, in fact I don't think we'll see anything other than the odd day or two of cold from now to the end of February. This winter has all the hallmarks of a nineties winter which predominately was mildish and wet with a few cold days thrown in during February.

Another easterly and another fail. The only way to get decent cold to our shores and for all of the UK is via heights over Greenland, the last two winters have both produced a Scandi high and neither of them have produced a cold and snowy set up IMBY. Every year we get suckered into Easterlies they are without doubt bobbins and 9/10 fail to deliver nationwide, or at all.

We'll be lucky if we get a frost let alone a big freeze.

No doubt he'll try and snatch a victory from the jaws of defeat.

I was going to highlight how Gibby's post was in the wrong thread..............But after reading it maybe not.

This is what I was alluding to in the moaning thread, I think the Atlantic will continue to influence events for the next few weeks, whilst the PV goes on its jollies. Thereafter the window of opportunity will hopefully be grasped.

I don't think I need to wait for weekend to call it the way. I see it. For next week for the majority will see more rain with temps close to average any colder incursions will be confined to the far NE, thereafter who knows bit I've a feeling that the Atlantic will still be dominating proceedings for the next few weeks.

I think I'll await the weekends output before casting judgement the UKMO is better with heights looking more robust and further North, however it's a fluid situation so best to sit back from afar and cast a beady eye on developments.

I think it was the MetO update that took the wind out of my sails, but now Ian has kindly given the reasoning behind this I'm inclined to agree with you somewhat. Eyes down for 12z.

Cluelesss imbecile!

I still feel we need to see this push further westwards in Greenland, this it may do over the coming 10+ days but also we may just as easy end up on the wrong side of the block with fronts stalling over the North sea leaving us in a cold/wet regime.

Yeah, bog standard winter fayre though compared to what we've endured at least some will see something a little different.