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UV-RAY

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Posts posted by UV-RAY

  1. So, after been led up the Garden path last week, we are again showing a cold scenario from the East Tonight! Certainly sees some trend in cold weather...... "Now".... after a rather long wait to see if we are looking west or looking east , the trend is to look east, Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Before all of that we have slow moving fronts in the coming days with more problems with flooding!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

    The trend remains much the same IMO, a big block to the East and toughing aligned over poor old rain soaked blighty.  Until we see model consensus then I'm sticking with no changes to the status quo in the next 7-10 days at least.

    • Like 2
  2. Yes I agree some replies on here are that we can still get cold if it is cold in America; of course that is correct, but IMHO, when there is no blocking, as in this current Winter, then there is only so much cold to go around. If our friends in the USA are getting most of it along with Siberia, then the UK is just getting the odd lucky PM or AM flow.

     

    And yes the ECM has been very disappointing with its promises of cold that are just a computer's imagination gone wild. I don't care that ECM nails the 500 upper flow better than GFS, who cares, it is when it matters, when cold may be on the horizon that we need it to verify, and it has sucked this Winter.

     

    Not the only ones to think that:

     

      Hudsonweather

    Little signal for winter in January. ECMWF has given unusually poor guidance. GFS surprisingly good, most consistent in not wanting cold.

    15/01/2014 13:32

     

    Looking like we are relying on a SSW to save the Winter; the warmings, the first which has now penetrated to the trop. appears to be rather tame: cooler, yes but nothing wintry. Other warmings to come, but again with a PV dominated winter they may simply not amount to much. Some pros wishy washy about an SSW:

     

      _chrisfawkes

    .@MattHugo81 Sadly can't see any evidence of SSW. The PV looks quite happy to end of Jan in GFS & EC. Last attacks failed to break PV

    15/01/2014 14:31

     

    Yes still a month of Winter to come and March as well so chances of some cold, but a prolonged cold spell, optimism is very low...

     

    ...unless you live in the USA that is!

    Sadly I feel those confidence levels will bear true and the best we can hope for will be Northerly topplers and probably a MLB  towards the second half of next month. Nothing in any of the model output to be positive about if it's cold your looking for anytime soon in England and Wales. Some colder PM air for Scotland at times which will bring some wintry weather to lower elevations up  there, but the rest of us, well the same old tumbleweed blowing across the output.

  3. According to James Madden's latest FB post increased solar activity is to blame for the late arrival of winter

     

    http://app6.websitetonight.com/projects2/3/3/8/5/2015833/uploads/WinterReport2UKIRE.pdf

    Solar activity had been increasing since the back end of last Summer, so being the excellent foreseer of all things metrological he should have known that. Also with the  higher solar output and a QBO which west based, he should have foreseen that a SSW event would me more than likely later in the season, though this may happen it will be sods law to be in the wrong location for us anyway. Luckily we should see far less solar activity for next winter and with an east based QBO expect lost of ramping from Madden sometime in July.

  4. Well after a forced absence it appears the models are still as confused as ever, but the favourable outcome still appears to a trough more or less sat over us with rain/cold rain being the form horse for lower elevations in England/Wales with any snow restricted to higher ground and at times lower elevations North of the Border. So it's as you were then, lots of promise but the same old same old continues.

    • Like 1
  5. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-49#entry2894728

     

    I'm really struggling to reply to that. It's clear you know better and it's really nearly impossible to debate when someone is of the opinion they know better than those who know better than them.

     

    No one stopped you going to university to study meteorology or climate. You could have been an expert. I wonder, if I'd studied long and hard at school (and I didn't..) if I too could have. But, if we reach a state when what is authoritative is decided by bloggers with grudges or those who post to internet forum rather than by academic study, theory tested by experiment, observations and data then  we will be up that blissful ignorance creek without the proverbial paddle of reality...

    What the hell as any of that rant got to do with my licence fee being wasted on things that have nothing to do with TV programming. Scrap it as it's another outdated form of compulsory taxation which I totally disagree with.  

     

    Edit; And what as my rant got anything to do with this thread, apologies.Posted Image

  6. Agreed, rain for most. But as the update mentions, an average to slightly below average temperature range in mid Jan could at least promote some hill snow for a lucky few and something a little more for the far north/north east.Not that I'm close to getting anything wintry IMBY though.

    I suppose it's a few crumbs of comfort which  have been in very short supply this winter.  

  7. Speak for yourself, when it snows then my workload triples, so whilst I fully appreciate that there are weather types for everyone, not all of us get a day off when the white stuff arrives, so the longer it stays away the better from my point of view. Dry & cold yes, but then the coldies on here are never satisfied with 'just' cold.

    That's like wanting  warmth without the sun.

    • Like 1
  8. Mmm we don't need scandi blocks to deliver snow in winter. Northerlies and northwesterlies can deliver the goods as well as cyclonic conditions and lows taking a more southerly course. Not sure why you are hanging so much on the scandi block. We've seen northerlies in April deliver the goods.

     

    Cold spells can also occur with high pressure overhead. A scandi block is not the be all and end all.

    Indeed, but unless we see heights becoming established over Greenland then any such Northerly/North Westerly  would be of the toppler variety. As for cold in March and April well as last year showed we can still see cold and snow but we are then in Spring. This winter is looking like a dogs dinner tbh with no sign anytime soon of a cold spell developing, and I stand by my comments of us seeing nothing but the odd day here and there of cold.

  9. The warmies are now claiming we should only use warm weather events as evidence and ignore cold ones as we now have to look at the ratios. Lol, so we now have missing heat content that remains AWOL and now we can only accept weather events that support the warming agenda. Stop the world I want to get off as the lunatics have finally taken over the asylum.Posted Image

    • Like 1
  10. I can think of various reasons why some prefer grey drizzly weather to bright frosty weather, e.g. people whose day consists of driving to and from work and spending the rest of the day cocooned indoors, where drizzle is just a minor inconvenience whereas frost can make the roads more slippery and dangerous, or people who struggle to keep warm due to expensive central heating.  It would be a very tall order to get me to welcome grey drizzly weather or consider bright frosty weather unwelcome, but then again, I enjoy watching snooker, Formula One and Match of the Day while some others find them extremely dull to watch, and I find Big Brother dull but many others love it.

     

    I have to admit to a feeling that when I see cold/snow fans suggesting to the fans of milder winters, "How could you possibly prefer X to Y?", it makes them as bad as those who say the same about those who enjoy frosty snowy winters, or watch certain types of sport rather than others- it doesn't help matters.

     

    This winter is proving something of a test for cold/snow fans though and this is probably why we're getting these heated debates- today was only the second night of the meteorological winter quarter in which I had an air frost, which is particularly unusual for this part of the Vale of York, just a few miles away from the notorious frost hollow in Topcliffe.

    Quite agree TWS, theres no need for anyone to have a go at anyone for liking mild drizzly weather or cold  frosty weather, we all have our favourite weather types and it matters not if that's mild or cold.

  11. Today's ECM mean for this Wednesday:

    Posted Image

    This is what it was showing for Wednesday 72 hours ago

    Posted Image

    Calling a spade a spade, it was a mile off. 72 hours ago, the chart was showing an easterly certainly midlands north, but today the easterly is over Iceland!

    Quite a few hundred of them to be precise. Well the hunt for cold continues but this is shaping up to be a nineties, noughties type winter with promises of cold in FI that never come to fruition.  Hopefully February will bring us a change of fortunes but for now the winds may have slackened but the rain looks like intensifying over the coming weeks.

    • Like 2
  12. Eh? Surely you know what a 'ratio' is?

    Indeed, but that's irrelevant Pete as if we are seeing cold records broken and proclaiming that's  weather then regardless of ratios the same has to imply for warm records. Talk about making the rules up as you go along, first the missing heat content, now we can only look at warm records because there are more of them, for now. What happens if/when those records are equal, or heaven forbid the cold ones outnumber the warm ones. do we move the goalpost again or maybe rebrand global warming, climate change, again?

  13. The records tell us the planet is gaining heat apace and that 2013 was only bested in global temps by a 'super nino' year ( being an E.N.S.O. neutral year itself) and the forecasts are for a 'large Nino' with the prospects of the I.P.O. and P.D.O. flipping into their respective warm phases to boot.

     

    I feel your song wearying you S.I. but , fear not!, soon you will have no need of it at all.........

    Besides the cryptic nonsense are you implying that you'll only accept records which show record breaking warmth and anything else regardless of the source you'll ignore, because if you are you've lost the argument and no matter what spin and agenda you attach to your ramblings, they are and will remain irrelevant.

    I think that it's the ratio of warm/cold anomalies that folks on here take notice of?

    So your implying we only take account of the warm records and any cold ones are weather. Cuckoo, Cuckoo!!

  14. we're not really in "the bad old days" though. getting snow in this country is like the lottery- the jackpot would be 1962/63.

    watching the models is like watching the lottery numbers roll out. you hope but in reality, you know you're going to be at work on monday.

     

    the occasional tenner would be nice though!

    I know where Tim is coming from as December and the first 11 days of this month are following a similar path, what we did see in the bad old days was a block to our East wit sub zero temps whilst we where on the outside looking in. Of course there's still plenty of time for things to change and as others have posted the upstream pattern is far more favourable now that what it was, for me though we need to see this taking effect by the months end or we maybe looking at continuous FI charts showing the next close but no cigar scenario.

    • Like 2
  15. I'd again have to refer back to the ongoing public health crisis that the death, via heat exhaustion, of those 100,000 bats are currently causing down under?

     

    Why have they left it to now to die in their thousands if this austral summer is not as recorded by the B.O.M.?

     

    Maybe folk from the other thread could do some reading up on the event and then go hunting the old newspapers ( some of them seem adept at checking through ancient Aussie papers when it suits ) to find something similar in a past summer?

    GW, are you saying we should ignore any data that doesn't back a warming trend, because if you are then we are heading into a dangerous place which I'm sure most proponents of AGW won't agree with?

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