UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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Lol, for my locale it was terrible and certainly on par with any of the late 80's, 90's and noughties winters for cold, frosts and snow. IMBY I recorded more frosts during October and November than the whole of December and January, February faired better on the frost front. As for snowfall that was truly woeful and only two winters in the last 30 years of keeping records have been worse, aside from all of that the real disappointment has been the lack of any deep cold, temps have largely been a few degrees above freezing by both day and night with little in the way of any sunshine.
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I always felt the GFS handled Northerlys better then the Euros, I don't know whether any stats back this up though.UKMO just issued new analysis noting GFS "stubborn" re northerly whilst EC has this only temporarily. EC favoured with hill snow "perhaps spreading somewhat further south with time.... then becoming confined again to the N." . They continue to note "weight of ensembles.... continue to favour cyclonic W/SW into trend (10-15d) period.... with recovery in temperatures" . So, story remains consistent in their analysis of 00z ensembles versus those throughout yesterday. Certainly no mention of any widespread snow issues (north temporarily aside, perhaps) based on EC EPS or MOGREPS-15.
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Indeed, temps in the arctic are well below average for the time of year so any arctic incursions will certainly have a bite to them.It would be funny if march ends up being synoptically the best for wintry weather after hoping a decent greenland high would form for months, it now looks like we will get one, just as well the arctic is perishingly cold right now and despite the 6z, we could still be on track for a potent arctic blast.
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Lol, it's not been the most accurate forecasting tool over the last few months and that's being kind.Yes great maybe it will be right - having predicted this since November !
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A few snow grains in the wind, temp 2.7c.
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Temp 1.7c here, can't see it getting below zero tonight........ Oh wait a minute didn't I say the same last night.
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As much as I love my cold and snow mushy I have to agree with you, I'm all for looking for cold charts but it's the constant bigging up of charts at +240hrs which grates me. Also like you I like a sense of realism in what I read, unfortunately some in the MOD thread prefer escapism to realism and god forbid if you comment on anything other than cold chances.lordy, theres some rubbish being posted on the model thread. snow chances are being ramped up and the willing are suckering it all in. tbh you only need to read martin gibbs excellant posts for a realistic take on the weather, nearly all the rest is just gibberish. its as if people talk about it enough, itll happen. listen to the unbiased, otherwise you run a great risk of dissappointment.... but theres nothing new there.
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My comment regarding cloudy skies and temps remaining above freezing during this cold spell is already bust, temp got down to -1.6c last night. Beautiful morning here with wall to wall sunshine and a temp of 1.4c, shows how much I know really.
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Same here, ironic really.Maybe but the forecast is for a hard frost across the region so I'd have thought that you've be joining in shortly.
TBH we've had more frost during this "milder" spell than during the previous colder one.
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That's probably due to your location and height I would guess, temp here 2.3c.Surprising that as we are now at -1.6c.
The difference in the feel of today compared to yesterday has been amazing and even today will probably seem ok compared to what the weekend has in store.
Maybe even a bit of snow by Saturday although I'm not holding out much hope of that.
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Looks too me that after the next 5-7 days temps will at best only return to normal values. Could be a cold CET by the end of March maybe.
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Yes, the old promising charts at +240 hrs, now where I've I heard that before.ECM t240 and a much more potent easterly could be in the offering, with pressure rising over
Scandinavia as the trough over Iceland cuts southeast. Very promising and only 240 hours
away lol.
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Not much chance of a frost tonight unless we see any breaks in the cloud sheet. Temp at 2.5c now and I can't see falling much further tbh.
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Nice one BT.Yeah
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The graphics on the beeb weather showed a cloudy start to the morning but this breaking up in the afternoon, fingers crossed.I disagree with you because the Pennines prob blocks the most of the cloudy weather so it will still be a good day tomorrow but few more clouds than today.
The wind is still light tomorrow so I cant see clouds coming over here anyway. Its only 15mph at best so it will not enough to bring clouds from the east.
Is that you recording BT?Timelapse of tonight's sunset.
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The CFS has been quite good since February last year, it picked out last Summers washout as well as being pretty good at picking the right signals for this winter back in early Autumn.
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It was meant to be a tongue in cheek post, directed at the faux cold brigade. Dry is dry, cold is cold.I really do not like that description.It is not false, it is cold.....The forecasted high is not set to bring low overnight minima http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn16217.png
but if it did it would be cold .If i have to scrape the car in the mornings it is because it has been cold overnight not falsely cold or with a false scraper.
And i know you poste "Faux dry" whatever that means
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Faux dry?I think we may run out of ways to describe high pressure in the next 10-15 days and if the ecm 00z is anything to go by, the next 20+ days, it looks very stagnant, anticyclonic, settled, high pressure dominated and benign for most of the uk apart from the south where it will be breezier, colder, cloudier and with a risk of powdery snow flurries but the calm weather in western, central and northern areas will then also engulf the southeast during next week.
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Indeed, this IMBY is the second worst winter for recoding frosts and the third worst for recording snowfall in over thirty years of keeping records. A very poor winter in these parts, luckily Spring is around the corner and after a few cool/cold days temps look like recovering to normal values and beyond, hopefully.Indeed, Just a shame you missed most of the snow events also could of made the winter more interesting from an in your backyard point of view.
I think March could be a rather diverse month, more so than usual.
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Indeed it is a winters month and these last few days have produced the coldest temps of the winter, which shows just how poor the rest of winter has been for cold and frosts.Not really, going off the averages for the month today will be pretty much bang on..... This month is a winters month, therefore it feels pretty much normal for a winters month! Rather than a below average spring day!
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You obviously have difficulty grasping the concept of what springs weather implies.It can..... and it is...... Your spring like days are pretty much like late winter days. Strange that.
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Spring starts in March and in case you didn't know it tends to be a very diverse month in terms of temperatures.So you regularly get maxs of 7-9 and frost during spring 3.5-4.5 Avg..... sound pretty cold for spring to me. Sounds more like Late winter to me or even an average February
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After a cold week temps look like slowly returning to near normal values next week, these last few days have been very springlike and a godsend for those of us who are sick of cool, damp and grey laden skies which this winter had had in abundance.
North West England Regional Discussion 19th February >
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
There's been some cracking weather these last few weeks. I've recorded more frosts and cold temps during this spell than the rest of winter put together. Next weeks cold spell will hopefully bring more in the way of sunshine and frosty nights, hopefully we won't see those horrid grey laden skies which dominated much of this winter.