Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

UV-RAY

Members
  • Posts

    3,600
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

Posts posted by UV-RAY

  1. The thing is, those low heights around Greenland/Canada won't last forever. My suspicion is we'll see a fairly rapid rise in pressure around the Greenland locale once that PV shifts.....Now, this could feasibly be March time. We could end up in a situation where no-one wins with another cold spring...

     

    And yes this is comparable to some of those late 90's/early 2000's winters

    Indeed CC, and it's what I've been alluding to over the last few weeks on how this winter is very similar to those bad ones of the nineties and nougties.

  2. The level of attribution we can assign climate change to each individual record would require years worth of study and investigation. Which is why nobody but yourself and 4wd seem intent on dragging climate change into threads where they're not needed. Hypocrisy?

    Actually BFTV, your the first one that has come out and said that and I would agree it would take quite a while to gather all the data and then reach a conclusion.
  3. Not quite true, even with a raging PV over Canada/Greenland you can still get heights close enough to the UK to bring cold weather. Just in this case we are literally just a couple of hundred miles away from very cold surface conditions and potential battleground events.

    Not to say that won't change. The Arctic high looks set to reinforce that high to the north east, could it push west? Could we get a link (even briefly) between the Atlantic and arctic ridges. Both of those could push things in our favour.

    Oh well with the block to the north east continuing to exist, my sanity levels will continue to drop to new depths (currently sub zero by my last check).... standard Posted Image

    It may not be quite true but it's the obvious scenario going forward. Over the last 10 days or so we've seen a slight change in the overall NH pattern but the end result differs little from what we've endured thus far. Yes we have a strong block to our east and yes we have seen some disruption to the PV which has resulted in a more positive pattern for colder shots, but what we are still not seeing is a pattern conducive to a long lasting cold spell anytime soon and nor are we guaranteed one regardless of Stratospheric warmings and the MJO.
    • Like 1
  4. Good stuff four, I've always detested the way Skeptical science operates as it takes the stance that it's actually open to honest scientific debate, even when the actual truth is far removed from there mission statement, and what makes it even more amusing is the number of posters on here who use it as a reference for scientific facts.

    • Like 1
  5. A disappointing ECM heralding a return to zonality after a brief flirtation with a colder pattern

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

    Most concern will be with upcoming wet and stormy conditions on top of saturated ground rather than the odd bit of transitory sleet here and there.

     

    GFS illustrates well

     

    Posted Image

    Later on the next system brings this

     

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

     

     

    Not a lasting cold signal at all at the moment just wet, wet, wet.

    Much like I alluded to early, cold snaps here and there but until we see favourable synoptics regarding the Strat, much ado about nothing really.

  6. In general terms there has been very little change to the met office outlook apart from a weak signal for high pressure to eventually build across the south so where does that leave us with a pattern change? I think the models so far today are showing more wintry potential than yesterday, especially the 12z output last night which pushed the cold further east but once again there has hardly been any movement from the mo with the type of disturbed pattern we had through dec and early this month being the form horse, so i'm assuming that mogreps is not showing anything significant in terms of snow & ice for the next 2-4 weeks.

    Indeed Frosty I still fail to see the optimism of others for a cold spell, snaps here and there yes, but the main theme of a mobile Westerly regime in the longer term remains the favourite, unless there are any favourable developments regarding the Strat.
    • Like 1
  7. Personally I think it's time we bit the bullet and put winter 13/14 to rest. Some may think this is an over reaction but in reality we're looking towards Feb at the earliest for any meaningful cold pattern setting up. I've not seen a single snowfall this winter, not one....and that ranks it up there with the very worst of the '90s dross....at least I saw the odd NW'ly Cheshire gap scenario back then.

     

    Someone said the other day that this upcoming spell was 'not your average toppler'....well that's certainly true, it's not even a toppler scenario (which I would quite happily take right now to be honest).

     

    As we progress through Feb, lying snow will be harder and harder to maintain and by March snowfall will not lie here...March 2013 taught me that- higher ground still fine though.

    I'm with you Crew, it just feels like we are chasing shadows this winter and it just shows how poor this winter has been when we are getting excited about the prospects of some possible frontal snow. 

    • Like 1
  8. We are at a warmer starting point though. SSTs are warmer, the air is warmer, the Arctic is much warmer, the ice further north, etc., all important for winter cold. The coldest months on the CET record weren't the absolute coldest possible thogh, in fact, taking the daily mean record lows for December gives a pretty chilly average of -6.1C, quite a distance from the -0.8C in 1890. Being at a warmer starting point doesn't mean we can't record record cold months, but it does make the job a bit tougher.

    Agreed and that was my point, we may have a higher starting point but nothing can be ruled out and I wouldn't rule out the sun suddenly cranking up again.
  9. Note the three key points as far as the effect on climate goes according to Mike Lockwood,

    [*]There is a 10 to 20% chance that the sun will be in Maunder Minimum conditions by 2054 or so. Conversely, there is presumably an 80 to 90% chance that it won't.

    [*]Even if it is, it will only take five years or so for temperatures to get to where they would have been without the lull in the sun.

    [*]If the sun changes as suggested it may affect the jet stream, bringing cold snaps during the northern hemisphere winters.

    I would dispute any such claims as all of us are simply guessing, we could just as easily see a MM making such a sceniro a 80-90% certainty. Remember all this talk of starting points being warmer now then back then is nonsense, just look at what happened during December 2010, so on that basis anything is possible even the sun waking up from its slumber unexpectedly cannot be ruled out.
  10. The only thing I see is PV stayingvto NW and very little change to overall pattern. I think we may see low heights to NW lift a touch as we enter Feb allowing HP be more dominant. But mid lat HP and not Arctic. Until then more of the same......and longer term? No major flip in my mind. I mentioned other day the HP to our SW is a major cold pain.BFTP

    Much as I see the way forward Fred, silk purse. sows ear springs to mind. At least next weekend gives some of us the opportunity of seeing something wintry  possibly, but I still can't see anything in any output I've seen to get excited about.

    • Like 1
  11. Just read Gibby's update on his site nothing wintry on his latest update I'm afraid

    And why should their  be as I'm finding it increasingly difficult to make a case for a pattern change to anything cold, yes there is uncertainty in the model output from next weekend onwards, but that's all it is uncertainty and for me the form horse looks to be a continuation of an Atlantic driven pattern as we head into February and beyond, hopefully I'm wrong.

    • Like 1
  12. Dr Jennifer Francis is a long way from being a crank.

     

    Jennifer Francis earned a B.S. in Meteorology from San Jose State University in 1988 and a PhD in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Washington in 1994. As a professor at Rutgers University since 1994, she taught courses in satellite remote sensing and climate-change issues, and also co-founded and co-directed the Rutgers Climate and Environmental Change Initiative. Presently she is a Research Professor with the Rutgers Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences and studies Arctic climate change and Arctic-global climate linkages with ~40 peer-reviewed publications on these topics. During the 13 months from July 2009-July 2010, her family of four spent a year sailing through Central America. She and her husband circumnavigated the world in a sailboat from 1980-1985, including Cape Horn and the Arctic, which is when she first became interested in Arctic weather and climate.

     

    I was being factious knocker, he sounds a quite a character.

  13. SI, can you please post such stuff to your thread. There you might post any opinions you have about Dr of blog science Mr 'Goddard's' revelations (because it's almost as if you ritual attacks on GW are a distraction from the embarrassment 'Goddard' is). 

    I think you'll find I'm not Godarrds biggest fan hence my post further up, and as for attacks well being called a misleader is ok then is it?

  14. Awww, C'mon Dev! give them back the rope! they 've already been tying the right knots (and right before our eyes)....... could you not have left them alone a little longer?(LOL)

     

    I do have to wonder at the timing of this though? We have the Antarctic sea ice muddle just exposed ( and now being worked on by various teams?) and the prospect of a summer El Nino? There after we are told to expect a Pacific ocean flip to 'warm surface' phase (adding more heat into the atmosphere)?

     

    I do think that the 'Drivers' of the Misleader movement know that the Hiatus was just about spent but that they did not expect the problems with the Antarctic Sea ice algorithms?

     

    If you were them what would you do when your teams tell you that there really is an issue with the measure of Sea ice down South ( that will be amended by summer 2014) and so your second favourite 'Squirrel' was about to be taken from you just when Squirrel number 1 was set to evaporate ( along with large portions of the surface of the tropical Pacific...lol) around the same time?

     

    It's almost as though the misleaders troops on the ground forgot that the current reduction in the rate of atmospheric warming really was a product of some hefty negative forcings and that they could use the 'slowdown' as a proof for ever? Now that they are getting the first whiff of it ending you can almost sense that things are about to turn nasty? I'm sure that the paymasters have not ordered such but the 'troops' they enlisted along the way will not be best pleased to see not only science proved right but them also entering into another 'warming surge'? 

     

    If at the same time they lose the Antarctic Sea ice as a cudgel , leaving just the accelerating mass loss there, then what do they have to work with?

     

    You can bet their paymasters have not been idle through the past decade and a half and , being in business, will know when to quit. I'm sure the past 15yrs or so have been an opportunity that they have not wasted ( we'll see no oil barons on skid row) but will they be there for their loyal troops? I think not!

     

    The hidden paymaster will become world Green leaders with their drives into alternative energy production and their willingness to be seen to be fighting for a safer future by their mitigation efforts!

    Would that be the same summer El Nino you predicted for last summer.Posted Image

     

    The rest of your post is up to your usual standard, mud slinging by calling all sceptics misleaders. You should be banned for such inflammatory remarks as it does nothing but stoke up the fires.

    • Like 1
  15. Are we seeing the Hadley Cells move back to the tropics? I thought we saw Prof Francis show us the exact opposite was continuing to occur? Along with the move poleward of the tropics themselves and the 10c ocean isotherm? I'd check you're data SI? doesn't seem to have been generated on planet Earth? Maybe the Martian warming has stopped and it's their data you're using?

    Who is Prof Francis, never heard of him so he must be a crank if you rate him. The Hadley pressure cell has been moving southward over the last 5 years at least and I think I'll listen to Joanna Haigh thank you very much. Also this has nothing to do with your agenda to push all things AGW into every single thread, it becomes tiresome after years of seeing the same repetitive stuff.
  16. James Madden has updated his forecast for February, the opening line is a bit weird

    The final month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to continue with a cold and snowy regime Posted Image

    How can we continue with a cold and snowy regime when neither has arrived after 7 weeks of winter Posted Image

    But there is still 12 days of the month left and there is an outside chance that the end of this month could be cold and snowy.
×
×
  • Create New...