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UV-RAY

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Posts posted by UV-RAY


  1. Excellent facts about BOM and Australia "s so  called record hot temperatures, ,BOM weather stations are all across Australia Wrong most stations are in  South Eastern Australia! Posted Image So more massaging of the facts.http://t.co/Tk8ATaiW1t

    Keith, you should know now that facts are not what the manipulators deal in, remember the world sees a pause in rising temps but they see a continuing warming trend. This is why they despise Judith Curry so much , she deals in facts whilst they deal in deception.


  2. Cold paucity aside, I think anyone switching-off from model watching over the next few days - assuming they have broader meteorological interests aside from making snowballs - is missing a trick. I assure you the synoptics continuing to unfold are almost unprecedented, given the longevity and potency of the winter pattern already seen (and endorsed by Jan rainfall stats). These are serious times for parts of the UK weatherwise & rest assured, those considering current charts as 'dross' will reflect (the next time we sit beneath endless leaden skies of a prolonged phase of chilled anticyclonic gloom) how astonishing this period of model output has been - and will be next week.

    Enthused or not I for one cannot find any enthusiasm for endless gales and rain, give me anti-cyclonic gloom any day and I'll leave the "fascinating" weather for others to enjoy. 

     

    On topic now and , well same old, same old, with no end in sight for any sustained cold unless the GFS has spotted a potential pattern change from now to eternity.


  3. Are you saying we should ignore anyone that doesn't have a PhD in a climate related discipline?

     

    The qualified scientists have access to the best data, computing power, have been trained in the best methods and generally have the best resources available to them. They produce the vast majority of the peer reviewed research that we see, and the data that we use to produce analysis.

    But anyone can perform their own analysis, use different methods and submit the research for peer review and whatnot. But the reviewers will be experts, and better able to determine the validity or soundness of the research. They can check the methods, ensure proper statistical techniques are used, check that claims are backed up by evidence, etc.

     

    How have you come to the conclusion that so much research is poor, have you been cleverly concealing your credentials and expertise all this timePosted Image

    Not at all, but we should ignore those compiling data who aren't scientist  for scientific purposes, i.e. IPCC reports and empirical evidence. Also by your own standards can we accept findings by scientist arguing against climate sensitivity and the impacts  of CO2?


  4. Well another game and another crushing defeat, we are now hopeless in all forms of the game and where we go from here is anyones guess. IMO a review of the central contract system is needed as we have cricketers paid by their county to play an handful of games per season, this is unacceptable IMO and needs addressing as not only are the counties missing out but so are the out of form alleged international cricketers, whom when out of form should be back plying their  trade back at county level to regain some form.


  5. I'd disagree with you. If the data is good and the research is sound, it shouldn't matter who produced it. Every single person in existence has their own biases. It's through utilising the scientific method that these can be largely overcome to help us understand the world

     

    So we can make the scientist redundant then as there is clearly no need for them to be involved in the research, it's an odd thing to say BFTV and how do you define if the research is sound if you have a bias already. Maybe this explains so much why  the research is pretty poor then as it's clear any Tom, Dick and Harry can get by the so called "gold standard" peer review process.


  6. Luckily the IPCC reports are based off scientific research, and not the strange beliefs that a couple of contributors may or may not have.

     

     

    Regardless of whether or not they have contributed much to the IPCC, shouldn't the quality of the data, and not who produces it, be what matters?

    Actually yes BFTV and more so if they have zero credentials in climate science. I'm surprised that you of all people would say that?

     

    Leaving aside the usual sort of engagement around here, would you not agree that it's far better that all research is conducted by scientists at least?


  7. I think climate scientists are always striving to improve our understanding of all things influencing the climate. New papers are released on an almost daily basis now.I think to disprove CO2 as a primary driver of recent temperatures, there are a lot of things that require brand new explanations. Such as the growing energy imbalance, the cooling of the lower stratosphere, nights warming faster than days, etc.The IPCC reports change as our understanding progresses and new evidence comes to light. The bible looks quite similar now as it did when I read it as a kid, and rarely changes.

    But when you have the likes of Greenpeace and the WWF submitting reports that are included then we have a problem.

  8. Indeed knocker, we use to donate to charities such as Oxfam and Water Aid, but with the loss of my business and no income we had to cancel these unfortunately. The real problem I have now is the constant bombardment on television of so many charities, some of which should be funded by government anyway, watching TV has become a case of "quick where's the remote".


  9. May be good if you still get paid but I like most people don't and many can't afford to lose a day or mores  pay.

     

    I haven't enjoyed this winter though it is better than cold and snow but to me it is like an option of one leg amputated or two, would much prefered a mild and dry winter.

    I bet there's been quite a few who've missed work in the flooded areas though, as well as seeing there homes flooded and all there valuables lost, and I don't think for one minute they'll be saying "thank god it's mild".


  10. Indeed, it appears the warming biases  is rife within all climate models hardly surprising really given the fact that if your given a shedload of money to show an increasing warming trend, then you better deliver  a manipulated response to your paymasters. One does wonder on the outcome if we end up nowhere near the IPCC's lower scale of warming trend, because I for one feel that this is looking far fetched at this moment in time. Time will tell of course but the odds look stacked against any significant increase anytime soon.


  11. I think mild Winters tends to follow by wet and cool Summers. I hope this isn't the case. We did have a hot Summer last year though but the odds of a wet one is pretty high atm.

    I think we'll see a coldish March and April followed by a warm May and June. Thereafter cool and wet, another hunch but hopefully we'll see some warm and sunny weather for at least 8 weeks of the year, which I'll take right now.

  12. I think perhaps we have to wave the white flag here on this winter, its just one of those which we have seen plenty of in the past although as it stands now this probably takes the Oscar because there were a few opportunities which could have mediated its horror rating. It wasn't the relentless PV to the north which has ruined many a winter but the  PV latched into ne Canada. Overall today solid support across the models for troughing sitting to the west of the UK, block to the east and a stalemate scenario for the foreseeable future. At this point if I was in the UK and offered a late winter spell like those in 2005 and 2006 I'd take it, even though that came at the end of February. The problem is at this moment in time even thats a stretch, and with the strat warming also giving up the ghost theres very little to see what could change the pattern. No doubt some good synoptics will appear in March when the feeling will be if only! So I think we should just expect the worst as we go into February and hope that something eventually does change.

    Indeed Nick, time to move on from fanciful thoughts of cold and snow, what would be truly amazing would be seeing these conditions persist throughout February as I' don't recall a winter from the 40 or so that I can remember well, where all three months were mild and wet without a single spell of cold weather lasting beyond 24 hours. I think this year we could well be seeing a cold late March/April with frequent Northerlies, similar to those awful winters of yesteryear.

  13. Latest EC Monthly runs-up striking positive temp anomalies across all Europe/UK progressively through February after chilly opening gambit, with ensemble means by w/e 26th showing low heights to N/W, (weaker) high to S (Iberia) and SW flow dominating. It's been on the money since early December, so performance through these last few weeks of winter will be very interesting indeed.

    Looks like Piers Corbyns February forecast won't be far off the mark if it pans out like that. A thoroughly depressing winter of floods and gales with the only saving grace of spring being around the corner.

  14. I think our problems arise from the far side of the U.S.? The High Pressure over the north Pacific has just stayed and stayed. Run the Jet over this 'block' and then into the Rockies and you set up the peturbations that lead to repeated cold plunges for the U.S. and an energised jet over the Atlantic ( driven by the potential between hot/cold over the U.S./Atlantic).

     

    When the H.P. loses it's impacts over there then the ripple down impacts here will reflect it? As it is? well it appears there for the duration. How long has that High been parked there and what 'ENSO' phase does it best fit with?

    A good question, I would say something similar to one of those  awful ( for cold and snow ) nineties, early noughties winters GW, possibly even mid 70S?


  15. I'm surprised there haven't been suicide attempts after reading some of the posts in here?!I've said it a lot but I'll say it again, I went from 1994 until 2009 before I saw lying snow here, I went 7 years without a flake falling.. I'm a total all-rounder when it comes to the weather, love snow, love storms, love gales, love torrential rain etc.. I don't get the level of disappointment I read on here, yes, it's a bit of a sod that it has been so wet & windy but what can you do? Get on with life and wait for the Winter next year, you'll see plenty more!I'm neither a mildie or a coldie but one thing I have noticed, coldies set themselves up for a fall very easily, just the slightest whiff of something cold on an FI chart and I get scared to look on the forum :lol:When it all backtracks and disappears, it turns in to royal rumble sometimes! The act of model watching on the WWW enhances the disappointments because back in the day, you just watched a TV forecast and hoped for the best, the interwebz has folks nitpicking to the tiniest degree, I fall foul of it too, it cannot be helped. :)There's obviously still time left this winter but you've also got many more Winters to come

    Lol, you reside in Dorset so I'm surprised you didn't have to wait longer for snow.

  16. Morning all :) Extraordinarily downbeat mood this morning on the basis (it seems) of one set of Operational output and a Strat not shattering into fragments on request. Please remember that we are only going out as far as mid-Feb even now and it's extraordinary that after routinely castigating every forecast he has ever made, somebody has just quoted a Piers Corbyn forecast as though it were the unvarnished truth. If we don't get any snow this winter, so be it. I'm a long way from throwing in any metaphorical towel as I never thought anything much would happen before mid-February. It might do some people on here a bit of good to step back from over-analysing every scrap of output for a few days and come back with some renewed perspective. As I said on the Winter Discussion thread yesterday, many winters have had March snowfall after a mild core period and it can even snow in April under the right conditions. I do think blocking will become the key player from the middle of February onward but I don't know it will be cold or mild (Corbyn's theory presumably). My gut feeling says it may be akin to March 2013 with the block just to the north or north-west of the British Isles - too close for snow but able to feed in a much colder flow. To assume on the basis of one or two set of outputs that it's going to be a warm February and to support that theory with the forecasts from a widely-derided pundit seems absurd in the extreme. Tamara has said many times the stratospheric vortex will have one more period of dominance before it weakens finally and we are moving into that period at the end of the week. That period will last at least a fortnight but I don't know what will happen after yet but it will be different to what we have seen since early December - will it be a late winter or an early spring is the real question.

    His forecasts aren't as bad as you may think, you have to subscribe to get the details but he's no worse than any other long range forecaster if not better than all of them. As for another cold March well Piers would be right then as March is Spring.

  17. The one thing thats surprised me this winter is just the inconsistency of the signal, last winter when we had that SSW the actual warming remained pretty much on track from the far reaches of FI. This year theres such wild swings in the temperatures shown especially at the 10hpa level.

    A stab in the dark here Nick but I wonder if the uptick in solar output has been responsible for this?

  18. The death bell tolls for winter 2013/14, the background signals, blah, blah, blah are irrelevant as that little piece of vortex anchored over Canada looks like going nowhere fast anytime soon. Piers Corbyn forecasted an exceptionally warm February and whilst I can't see that happening just yet, I do think we'll be looking at milder rather than colder weather for next month, just a hunch.


  19. To be quite frank the words patience and potential are beginning to grate me with too many banking all our hopes on a SSW which may or may not lead us all to riches. I said a couple of weeks back that this winter bears all the hallmarks of a nineties, noughties winter when there was a cold block to our NE whilst we sat in no mans land with the promise of impending cold, which never came.

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