UV-RAY

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76585-manmade-climate-change-discussion/?p=2862348 Well for starters GW the PDO went negative in September 2007 as I've posted countless times ( with evidence ) and secondly it's well documented that each cycle lasts around the 30 year mark, so by my estimations we'll be looking at around 2037, possibly a few years earlier before a switch. Now within these cycles we still get nino's and nina's annually but the nina's are far more prominent in the cool cycle and vice versa.

Lol, I'm nicking that one for the next time I play Scrabble.Looking at the models and I don't see the same despondency as most others here, we have a jet which is looking likely to dive further and further South with time once any fronts push well into Europe. From there we could start too see tentative signs of height rises to our NW towards the months end, yes it's a glass half full viewpoint of the models but least we forget some were talking about a long fetch from the SW only a week ago and look how that prediction went.

Just want to say a big thanks to all those who contribute here, some fantastic analysis and charts posted.

You'll either be looked upon as Father Christmas or the Grim Reaper, rather you than me.

Three times in how long though, remember last winter it was consistent as in consistently wrong. I don't rate it one bit and it will take many a more months of it being consistent before I start heaping praise on it. Sick with the 7-10 days time frame and the Strat thread, the rest you can simply follow yourself by looking for trends.

To infer that my thoughts are somehow indoctrinated is no better, what your views are should stay as your views and not one of trying to change the world to fit into your own ideas of what it should be. Just because others are sceptical doesn't make them on par to mass murders ( though this is how you view them ), I've never once seen you post with an open mind to anything regarding our climate which I find totally alien as many proponents of AGW are open to new ideas when the evidence presents itself. I think your at the extreme end of the argument and are the equivalent of a sceptic who denies that any warming has even taken place.

I still can't find the post your referring to Dev, but whichever one it is I find the constant labelling of being a misleader both tiresome and very inflammatory. I don't mind humorous quips but GW is deadly serious about this terminology.

Cracking chart for IMBY, would bring a very disturbed and potentially snowy chart for me.

My point being though Ian is that come the next update we could be looking at a completely differing signal to the one being presently shown, even the xmas period is at the latter stages of reliability. I would say the only certainty is that it will remain unsettled, but with regards to the jet alignment there's plenty of options available.

I agree so far so good, but it's constant chopping and changing in the latter stages of its updates kind of renders it's long term use a little redundant. I much prefer the John Holmes way of looking at the 7-10 day as being more often than not right and everything else beyond is a case of looking for trends. The trend I see is one where the jet sinks further and further south over time, what happens next who knows.

Until the next EC32 update that is Ian.

Oh I agree any weather related stories should be knocker, but how many stories regarding storms, heatwaves and droughts get the "it's down to AGW" treatment. Remember some were trying to pass St Jude's storm on just that , but luckily the MetO came out and squashed that.

If it was it would be plastered all over the news as evidence for AGW and a poster on here would certainly be pounding his chest and licking his lips.

what post are you referring to, you've lost me?

I'm expecting it to be mild in Southern England and South Wales with showers or longer periods of rain, but from the North Midlands Northwards these showers will become more wintry over higher ground with snow to quite low levels in Scotland and possibly the far North of England late in the day. Gales or severe gales for much of the UK with temps ranging from 3c in Scotland to 13c in the SE. Boxing day onwards a change afoot with a trend to much colder conditions developing.

Which posts were removed GW?

Thanks for the reply as it isn't a dig at your good self or Matt and I did emphasise myself that you can only comment on what it's output is showing.

Good to see you back posting Fred, I hope your father is back on the road to recovery now.

But those EC32 chop and change far too frequently to have any sort of confidence in them, granted you can only post what the models show but these show something different every week.

Indeed, with an active Atlantic and returning PM air in the mix any talk of writing off the chances of a white xmas for some is a tad premature for sure.

ic/76585-manmade-climate-change-discussion/?p=2859340 Yes I don't approve of such posts and were have I said I do? I'm all for humorous replies as sometimes the debate can and does get heated, failing that a PM works wonders as I found with BFTV. Maybe we need to clarify when we are being humorous just to avoid further unnecessary conflict, as emotions do run high at times.

With all due respect Matt, it wasn't all that long ago when you was talking about height rises to our NE. So the info you have at your disposal can and does change quite quickly.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76585-manmade-climate-change-discussion/?p=2859340 Lol, but it's still ok to label us as climate misleaders, or maybe you couldn't read my post correctly due to the blinkers you was wearing? Or how about, "yes SI I don't approve of such labelling, but how do you feel with regards to this comment".

Lol, you do have a sense of humour.

Good article on climate modelling. http://judithcurry.com/2013/11/25/reflection-on-reliability-of-climate-models/