UV-RAY

Well seen as I'm absolutely hopeless at these predictions and whatever I predict the opposite happens, I'll go for 9.8c. On a serious note I'm expecting a very wintry first half to January at least, then a milder slot before it turns much colder at the latter end of the month. 2.0c

Excellent post Mucka and highlights the potential wintry synoptics as we head into the New Year, I expect lots of inter model agreement and upgrades on a potentially wintry spell of weather post xmas.

And yet we complain when gales bring down a few power lines, imagine the chaos here if such circumstances occurred.

Indeed, I've lost count the number of times I've read how the winter of 46/47 was mild prior to the February, as you highlight this is a popular misconception and urban myth.

Indeed Nick, as the longer it takes the more chance of it going the way of the pear.

Rumour has it he's writing another book, this time on modern zonality. Could be a best seller, unlike errr!

Not in these neck of the woods , just got back from hillwalking in a blizzard and whiteout conditions, this at a modest 1300 feet

Looks like those of us were positive about a change to a colder setup over the last couple of weeks with the jet digging south are now seeing much to be positive about, split vortexes, negative NAO and AO on the cards and the early signs of HLB, and today I've already encountered blizzards whilst out hillwalking . Lots of eye candy to view over the coming days no doubt but we are not out of the woods yet, as we all know too well that it only takes a SW to appear to scupper any cold for this tiny speck in the ocean.

Tis the season of goodwill to all men, allegedly. :-)

Lol, that kind of backs up my diagnosis.

Not impossible, but we may need to wait another 10,000 years before it becomes possible.

Your dosage needs increasing tenfold.

That's my beef with the ECM32, it flips far to often over short timescales but now it's showing a zonal outlook we're all suppose to pay homage to it. I'll go with the 7-10 days timescale and look for trends in FI myself rather than rely on the unreliable.

I think this winter if it's a sustained cold spell you want then yes. I agree, the PV looks unstoppable at this moment in time but things can and do change quite quickly. Now whether that equates to something cold for the UK is another question and one where I think that even with. SSW other factors will override this for any lengthy cold spell this year. What we are seeing now could be as good as it gets and one which if anything makes a good learning curve for future years.

I still think far too many place far to much faith in SW for delivering cold, the last two winters have seen SW events but both of these left large parts of the western part of the UK in no mans land for cold. Remember just because we see a warming that doesn't equate to cold for the UK, I still feel that too many look at the Strat thread as the be all and end all for cold for the UK, yes it's an important player but we need other factors to play ball also.

I disagree as the models have been woeful in the dotting the i's and crossing the t's for the last two weeks. It's all very well saying they've got the LW pattern right, but for this tiny speck of the NH what we've seen is far, far removed from conventional zonality and if we continue to see the jet digging further and further south then this opens the doors for something much colder down the line.

Yes 0-0.5c 0-0.5c Looking at the poll we have anything from zero effect to catastrophic warming, I bet we all know which ones polled either.

Much appreciated BFTV the time and effort you take to keep us all updated on these.

But would you say it was exciting if it was summer that saw all those bar the frost and snow that is. For me seeing gales and rain is just bog standard UK weather and something we endure rather than enjoy, I still like storms but not one after another.

It's all well and good saying not to moan about our weather but how many would say the same if we had another washout summer with a big fat greeny high and a trough sat over us, would we then say it's exciting.

I'm glad there a few others who see the many positives Fred, I was beginning to think I was viewing model output for another planet over the last few days.

But it's got nothing to do with AGW Gray Wolf as it's the exact same thing we discussed regarding other cold records around the NH, or are you now implying it is.

I'm not so sure it is really and maybe it's picking up on the right signals as it's done for the last month or so, the ECM has been absolutely shocking but that's not to say it's not right now though.

Another upgrade from the models with regards to the jet digging further and further south and east. I've been saying the same for the last few days that next week will see far more favourable conditions for wintry weather from the Midlands northwards. Regardless of the mighty PV we are now seeing tentative signs of a pattern change with heights over the Arctic making more of an impact than first anticipated IMO. Lots too look forward to in the coming days with storms, sleet and snow, the latter becoming more prominent has we move through the Xmas period.

I love this skin, great idea.