UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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But it's not mild to start with, so any further decrease in temps would make it well below average.Fergie has twitted. further ahead growing signs of somewhat colder/less milder conditions into early Jan.
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Take no notice carinthian , your updates from your source have been spot on thus far. I think some are just on the wind upI have no access to ec32 and no false hope. It is based on a good source of information who provided our excellent portal service. The zonal theme will peak over the Christmas period with the thermal gradiient at its greatest and as previous posted we expect the jet to continue to move southwards with increasingly cold theme taking hold in January.
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Quite a few this year have been speaking of the need to be at solar maximum with a westerly QBO in order to stand the greatest chance of a SW.
I'm not understanding this... and I'm afraid I'm not a statistical/mathematical type who is happy to see a statistical correlation and leave it at that.
Come anyone explain to me - in terms of the physical world - why a solar maximum would be more preferable than solar minimum when dealing with warming events in +QBO years?
My understanding - and also from observation - is that when then the sun increases in activity we get an increased westerly response in the troposphere, at least at our latitude. I still have GP's explanation for the failed easterly last December etched in my brain on that one... but why is increased westerlies good news for a warming? If there is a correlation between that and mountain torque events over the Rockies/Tibet then why is it linked in particular to +QBO? Surely it would be a common factor whatever the prevailing QBO?
The only thing that I've seen going is from historical records, when a solar max with a +QBO increases the chances of HLB. I think?
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Gosh I am so sick of having to read posts about the perpetual storms when there are hints of colder weather for January in the output, oh wait.
What is the obsession with people wanting to dictate what part of the MO should or should not be discussed?
Don't you have your car park attendant and traffic warden jobs to got to?
Read what you're interested in and skip the rest or better still post about the part of the output that interests you.
I wouldn't mind but there are dedicated threads for such things if that is all you are interested in, try here for a start;
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78846-severe-atlantic-storms-over-the-christmas-period-2/
Then there are the regional threads and others.
Nothing annoys me more than people trying to dictate what others should post about, what gives you the right?
Let the mods moderate and exercise your right of choice as to what you read and don't read, it's that simple.
Mods I expect this to be deleted but I had to get that off my chest before my head exploded!
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The scariest thing is that we are one of the coldest places in Europe, but we are only just below average ourselves. Shocking for our neighbours on the continent
Let's hope we get a pattern change soon, or they will have to invent new winter sports
Lol, they could always take up our favourite pastime of dodging the raindrops.
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Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all....................well nearly.
I'll be open and honest and say that apart from you, GW and Pete I wish you all a merry xmas and a happy new year.
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Oops, sorry, have to remember that you guys in the north west have had rotten luck in recent years. Hopefully this winter will be different for you,
The South of the region has not done too badly as CC will testify, but for those of us North of Manchester it's been pretty snowless for the last two winters.
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Oh they are coming out of the woodwork now defending the missing ocean heat content, yet all of them ridiculed this years ago. I'm gleefully awaiting the factual evidence to back up these unsubstantiated claims, now just in case we can't find this heat, what's the next excuse for stalling ( or by then declining ? ) temps. Maybe we can blame it on the tooth fairy.
Of course it wasn't.
Oceans store a much greater quantity of energy than the atmosphere, and the upper ocean in contact with the atmosphere holdsapproximately 30 times as much heat as the air above it. Thus for a given change in the heat content, the temperature change in the atmosphere will be around 30 times greater than in the ocean. Small changes in the energy content of the ocean could therefore have considerable effects on the climate of the region. Consequently, the large heat storage of the oceans often acts to control atmospheric changes, and the two media are frequently engaged in an intricate dance. This is especially so in the equatorial Pacific Ocean where the continuous interchange between air and sea is the source of the El Nifio phenomenon. Such dances make widespread footprints in the living world, as the Gulf Stream connection shows. Many of the impacts of climate change will be determined by the way the warming manipulates these interplays.
And what Wilde says is a country mile away from factual evidence. In fact most of it could have been written by Charles Dodgson.
ENSO cannot be attributed to the pause, this has been pointed out to you in a previous post. Maybe it's hiding under your bed?
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Well ae least we're not alone for a change. Looks like being one of the mildest Xmas Days across much of central and eastern Europe for many years, even the bulk of lowland Scandi will see maxima above freezing and double digit highs are possible in parts of eastern Europe.
I'd imagine the organisers in Sochi will start to have a few sleepless nights if this pattern extends deep into Jan...
But most here will see temps below average on the big day Shed.
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Reading comments about how the zonal pattern is locked in, first half of January is a write off for cold. Maybe the whole of January...or even the whole winter! No blocking appearing at all etc etcFeels very December 2012 in here at the moment. Of course, January 2013 was a disaster wasn't it? Um...
Lo, it was here but I agree far too many always write off cold when the charts are showing zonal.
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So, what if we were just wrong to discount it - what then?
Lol, well how convenient more so when your all running round like headless chickens trying to find the impossible. I await your findings with a wry smile on my face.
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And,now the 'sceptics' are doing the very same thing.
Not at all, the idea of the oceans retaining heat for lengthy periods was kicked out many years ago, but now when it suites it's all the rage. Double standards shouldn't take precedence over what is factual evidence, if one day you state oceanic heat content is short term you cannot then stake a claim stating the opposite.
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So the sophistication of your understanding of climate is such that you expect GHG forcings to only appear in the surface temp record and that they will manifest as a constant ,year on year, increase in surface temp? Have I got that right S.I.? The only place on the planet that we need look to see the impacts of GHG forcing is the land surfaces?
You seem quite adept at ignoring anything that is a plus 90% contributor in this debate S.I. ? Be it scientific consensus, IPCC surety of man's influence, the energy that the oceans take up, the amount of energy that ice/snow reflect back into space?
Do you feel that missing 9/10ths of the picture ever does you a disservice ?
And yet when the theory of retained heat in the oceans was put forward by Stephen Wilde many years ago proponents of AGW ridiculed it and yet now they embrace much the same idea, I wonder if this is due to the global surface records
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Best. December since 2010 here, I've had two dustings of snow albeit patchy and a heavy snow shower this morning. In fact I've seen more snow this month than tithe previous two winters combined I love cold zonality and long may it continue but with more cold in the mix than now.
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I'll like to join you in wishing all those the best etc, etc, but when you have posters calling you denier and misleaders then I think it would be rather shallow of me as personally as I would rather avoid all contact with them. Merry xmas and a prosperous New year to your self though.
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Indeed I do, why aren't global surface temps responding to rising CO2 levels and does this mean that the whole theory on climate sensitivity needs readjusting. Answers on a postage stamp please.S.I. do you have anything climate related to add to this thread or is it just " I'm telling teacher you called me names" that you're here for? And 'Yes' I do believe we will suffer the higher end of the predictions for warming what of it? Are we no longer allowed opinions on this board? To me it is increasingly plain that the resumption in warming will drive the Arctic sea ice seasonal and this change alone will drive a period of change to our climate system that is currently poorly modelled ( as was sea ice loss prior to the 07' crash?).
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Not updated by Stuart since Saturday so here is yesterday's update
UK Outlook for Tuesday 7 Jan 2014 to Tuesday 21 Jan 2014:
Current indications are that the unsettled weather is expected to dominate into the New Year. Spells of mild, wet and windy weather are likely to alternate with brighter, colder, showery periods, though the risk of any significant snow or prolonged wintry weather looks low except on high ground in the north. Further into January, the most probable scenario is for the unsettled conditions to ease somewhat with a greater chance of drier weather, whilst frost becomes a little more likely.
Updated: 1205 on Mon 23 Dec 2013
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
Lol, and it's a cut and paste job of Saturday. I really wish they would only do these updates once a week.
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No. They always were. Still awaiting examples to justify your comment. And so you don't move the goal posts again this comment.
I will have to trawl though the forum in order to find any, but your inability to retract your comments about sceptics is telling.
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Can you give examples of when I have actually done that. My senility must be more advanced than I thought as I don't even remember discussing the subject. I find it a bit odd because I'm a tad sceptical of the high-end projections myself.
So your views now fall into the lower ranges of any warming? As for examples of making derogatory comments well, see above!
Likewise, 2-4C man myself.
This is at the middle/higher end of projections and quite frankly looks completely at odds to where we are now and how such a rise may come about.
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Some people seem to believe if you dont 'buy in' to man made run away warming, and you need more 'proof' that you have to be a oil polluting tree cutting refuse spilling person !
I'm for 10p charge for every plastic bag bought whats that make me ?
A plastic bag racketeer?
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The difference between the ECM op and GFS is the Greenland High, a pivotal player for the flow to the UK.
ECM mutes that packet of heights. T96:
ECH1-96.gif The GFS mean: gensnh-21-1-96.pngMuch higher anomaly. That has a downstream effect on the trigger low; the GFS channels the energy SE, between the GH and the AH and that keeps the LP system within the jet stream, that in turn pushes the trough south, allowing the trough to fill and amplify the pattern, rinse and repeat by the next low. Whilst the ECM low gets sent east and flattens the pattern.
ECM does not pump up the GH till T240, to 1020mb and that sends the next low on a more southerly direction, (presumably) getting the troughing, but much later:
Out of the GEFS members most have 1020 to 1025 for the GH, about 20% have 1015, but none have the ECM 1010.
So FI starts as early as T96 and we will have to wait to see who has modelled the GH correctly. I am not yet convinced ECM is on the right track.
Normally you would expect the ECM to lead the way with height rises to our N/NE, but over these last few weeks it's been pretty bad by it's own high standards. Are we seeing the GFS leading the way again or will the ECM gain some much needed kudos, my money is on a evolution similar to the GFS as ever though time will tell.
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I assume you are including the vast majority of eminently qualified scientists from various disciplines working in the field in your fatuous 'an assumption made only by a few hardcore proponents of AGW'? Not this moveable 17 years again. Haven't any of you deniers got a change of record?
I can only report the facts as I don't work on assumptions and those facts remain the same. I'll leave the scaremongering delusional stuff to others thank you. Also your another one who likes to make derogatory comments about sceptics, misleaders and deniers, tut tut.
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Nowt, just (I suspect) GW meant some posts belong in the 'sceptic' thread.
If faced by a serious pandemic humanity wouldn't simply accept our fate, faced by a serious war likewise, but for some reason if, at some point, we're faced by serious man made climate change I've seen many sceptics suggest we should just, pathetically, await our fate. They have surprisingly little 'can do'.
But we are not faced with serious climate change as that is an assumption made only by a few hardcore proponents of AGW. So it's kind of an invalid point really, more so when global surface temps haven't risen for 17 years.
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And for the most part he's been right. I think you maybe need to view the models again as they look nothing like those from 2005.Really do admire frostys enthusiasm. But at the moment all I can see is more storms with heavy rainfall. How many fi charts have we seen showing something more seasonal only for it to be gone. I would bet that what the 06z run showed will be totally different on this evening runs. I feel we will be seeing something akin to 2005 this winter. With us waiting till at least mid jan at the earliest. Until then more rain and gales I'm afraid but at least we're all saving on our heating lol.
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Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
A cold spell isn't defined by the number of days with temps below zero. I'm beginning to think that some members definition of a cold spell have been distorted since December 2010.
Back to the models and in the reliable timeframe as one or two others have already said it's more of the same really, with wind speeds decreasing overtime. FI does look more promising for a pattern change but until we get to +144 it remains a distant dream but one which could deliver a potent beast from the east from mid month onwards perhaps.