UV-RAY

A cold spell isn't defined by the number of days with temps below zero. I'm beginning to think that some members definition of a cold spell have been distorted since December 2010. Back to the models and in the reliable timeframe as one or two others have already said it's more of the same really, with wind speeds decreasing overtime. FI does look more promising for a pattern change but until we get to +144 it remains a distant dream but one which could deliver a potent beast from the east from mid month onwards perhaps.

But it's not mild to start with, so any further decrease in temps would make it well below average.

Take no notice carinthian , your updates from your source have been spot on thus far. I think some are just on the wind up

The only thing that I've seen going is from historical records, when a solar max with a +QBO increases the chances of HLB. I think?

+1

Lol, they could always take up our favourite pastime of dodging the raindrops.

I'll be open and honest and say that apart from you, GW and Pete I wish you all a merry xmas and a happy new year.

The South of the region has not done too badly as CC will testify, but for those of us North of Manchester it's been pretty snowless for the last two winters.

Oh they are coming out of the woodwork now defending the missing ocean heat content, yet all of them ridiculed this years ago. I'm gleefully awaiting the factual evidence to back up these unsubstantiated claims, now just in case we can't find this heat, what's the next excuse for stalling ( or by then declining ? ) temps. Maybe we can blame it on the tooth fairy. ENSO cannot be attributed to the pause, this has been pointed out to you in a previous post. Maybe it's hiding under your bed?

But most here will see temps below average on the big day Shed.

Lo, it was here but I agree far too many always write off cold when the charts are showing zonal.

Lol, well how convenient more so when your all running round like headless chickens trying to find the impossible. I await your findings with a wry smile on my face.

Not at all, the idea of the oceans retaining heat for lengthy periods was kicked out many years ago, but now when it suites it's all the rage. Double standards shouldn't take precedence over what is factual evidence, if one day you state oceanic heat content is short term you cannot then stake a claim stating the opposite.

And yet when the theory of retained heat in the oceans was put forward by Stephen Wilde many years ago proponents of AGW ridiculed it and yet now they embrace much the same idea, I wonder if this is due to the global surface records

Best. December since 2010 here, I've had two dustings of snow albeit patchy and a heavy snow shower this morning. In fact I've seen more snow this month than tithe previous two winters combined I love cold zonality and long may it continue but with more cold in the mix than now.

I'll like to join you in wishing all those the best etc, etc, but when you have posters calling you denier and misleaders then I think it would be rather shallow of me as personally as I would rather avoid all contact with them. Merry xmas and a prosperous New year to your self though.

Indeed I do, why aren't global surface temps responding to rising CO2 levels and does this mean that the whole theory on climate sensitivity needs readjusting. Answers on a postage stamp please.

Lol, and it's a cut and paste job of Saturday. I really wish they would only do these updates once a week.

I will have to trawl though the forum in order to find any, but your inability to retract your comments about sceptics is telling.

So your views now fall into the lower ranges of any warming? As for examples of making derogatory comments well, see above! This is at the middle/higher end of projections and quite frankly looks completely at odds to where we are now and how such a rise may come about.

A plastic bag racketeer?

Normally you would expect the ECM to lead the way with height rises to our N/NE, but over these last few weeks it's been pretty bad by it's own high standards. Are we seeing the GFS leading the way again or will the ECM gain some much needed kudos, my money is on a evolution similar to the GFS as ever though time will tell.

I can only report the facts as I don't work on assumptions and those facts remain the same. I'll leave the scaremongering delusional stuff to others thank you. Also your another one who likes to make derogatory comments about sceptics, misleaders and deniers, tut tut.

But we are not faced with serious climate change as that is an assumption made only by a few hardcore proponents of AGW. So it's kind of an invalid point really, more so when global surface temps haven't risen for 17 years.

And for the most part he's been right. I think you maybe need to view the models again as they look nothing like those from 2005.