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UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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So many things wrong with this post, first off solar output is spouted by far too many who haven't the foggiest on what they are talking about, incidentally output at this moment in time is relatively high for this cycle but it's more to do with UV output so may I suggest you read up on Joanna Haighs findings. The rest of your post just highlights all the necessary pieces of jigsaw that is needed in order to get cold to these shores. Right back to the model output and IMO nothing has changed a pattern change remains on the cards from around the '10th, the only thing which is up for grabs is how cold and how long.This winter goes to show how low solar activity and massive snow cover over Russia has no interaction without uk weather! Also that silly myth that whatever cold and snow develops over north East USA later affects us! Absolute garbage!
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But that's not the case SI.
For example, you could see SSTs increase, but a decrease in salinity would still encourage extra ice formation as ice could then form at a higher temperature.
Or, you could go from a situation where the ice is kept close to the continent by the wind, only for the wind to shift a blow the ice outwards. As the water near Antarctica will quickly refreeze forming new ice, extra ice gets blown away from the continent, increase extent. This could also happen with warming.
There are lots of things which can cause extra ice formation, regardless of temperature. Things can be complicated, otherwise, we'd have figured it all out already!
All good points you raise BFTV, I think we could be looking at combination all the points raised by the both of us. Happy New Year by the way.
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Hi. BFTV. Yes these factors also play a big part but we still have to see an increase in ice and a decrease in sea temps for ice to expand in the way it has down there.Do you think air temperatures matters? Or what about the salinity of the water and how that changes the freezing point. What about ridging and thickness? Winds driving ice outward from the continent?Don't you think any of those have a big effect on sea ice? The logic is beginning to drift towards this type, "all the stars, the sun and the moon appear to go around us, so we must be the centre of the universe".
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A politically motived post if I ever saw one. Struth don't YOU know sea ice moves about in Antarctica?
You provide NO, ZERO evidence at all for your claims. They're clearly made simply to damage reputations. Poor show..
Sadly, this thread is being damaged by people setting out to rubbish a scientific expedition and troll (and for the second time the bait has worked for me....) rather than for its true purpose - to discuss Antarctica sea ice..
Lol, what is scientific about getting stuck in ice that shouldn't be there.
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Why is Anthony Watts getting stick for pointing out they are a bunch of idiots who have caused huge expense and inconvenience in rescue attempts.
I think it's smoke screening to obfuscate the extensive thick ice which apparently they were not allowed to believe was there because of the real agenda of the expedition to get 'disturbing footage of climate change' in the medai.
They got the media coverage alright but not in the desired way.
Also did you notice some of the media coverage on this where they cited unusual weather conditions as the excuse instead of being trapped in ice.
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http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/press/press_releases/press_release.php?id=1967
What precisely do you mean by that stupid comment?
I've read this article before and the main point they seem to skirt around is for ice to expand we need the surrounding oceans to be colder. There is no doubt in my mind that Antarctica isn't experiencing any warming either in the interior or the peninsula knocker, yes we have seen big break offs around the parts of peninsula but IMO these are down to an increase in snow and ice and warmer currents which are normal anyway.
The comment was a joke knocker, nothing more nothing less.
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Another change to the wording but the main theme is one looking to turn colder.
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Passengers supporting the expedition.
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/aae-supporters/
Perhaps a little more detail on political ideologies and hidden agendas although a bit difficult with the latter as they are hidden. Which is more than be said of Watts. Anyway sticking to the facts and not fairy land the science case.
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/the-science-case/
Congratulations are in order for the shortest, concise, scientific paper explaining the increase in sea ice.
Well perhaps you have an alternative explanation for increased ice then. Keep taking the cat pills!
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Personally I find it highly amusing how a bunch of freeloaders became stuck in ice that shouldn't have been there. Let this be a lesson boys and girls that Mother Nature doesn't give two hoots for political ideologies and hidden agendas. Antarctica ice is advancing if anything and obviously for it to advance then the waters around Antarctica must be colder now than previously.
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Yes, well that reflects on the man, not the science, unfortunately, and, really, we shouldn't even tread on that ground if we want to be transparent, clear, and honest. It's OK to make mistakes, I make a whole load of them, but I try to be open and honest about them - and, crucially, publically, on these boards; so that any one can pick up on my methods, thoughts, or anything else. You see anyone else doing that?
Indeed and why I have an extremely low opinion of Hansen as I feel he does a disservice to science in general regardless of your thoughts on AGW.
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For me it was a terrible January, February and a barnstorming March. April and the first half of May weren't to clever either but from June we had probably the best Summer for over a decade around these parts with this extending into Autumn, unfortunately I like stormy Autumns. December has been, err wet with the occasional dusting of snow but very little in the way of frost.
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Another dismal day here, it's been raining non stop since the early hours. I've almost forgotten what sun light actually looks like, roll on a pattern change come mid month, hopefully.
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Not backing the ECM 32 up, but to be fair, are there any reliable long forecasting models out there at the moment? The ECM32 is not great but is the probably the best available for the timeframe it covers. The problem is rather that forecasting accurately past 15 days is still no where near as accurate as everyone would like and the models (EC 32, CFS, JMA) all reflect this and take the stick. Modern day society needs and wants more accurate longer range weather forecasts and Improving longer range forecasts is probably the next biggest milestone to be achieved in weather forecasting.
Agreed, it is the probably the best out there and the odd time it has picked up on a trend, but we've still a long way to go yet in producing accurate LFR. The Strat thread is like a breath of fresh air come the winter, it's not infallible but it's certainly the future of making LRF during the winter months.
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I'm not entirely sure but i believe the BBC Monthly Outlook uses just the ECM 32 Day whereas the MetOffice extended outlook uses the 32 day alongside some of there other models (MOGREPS-GEO4 etc) to get a more detailed picture? Im not sure though so hopefully Ian F is around to answer as it is a bit strange that the outlooks differ like that
Well that would explain why the discrepancy then, as the ECM32 are pointless after 15 days regardless of some defending them.
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Not so sure about that assertion, SI...Unless you're referring to the minority who rightly suggested that the previous month would be dominated by westerlies and a dominant polar vortex? Those who, IMO anyway, are too readily dismissed at 'trolls'?
Nope I'm pretty certain that the monthly updates are nigh on useless the majority of the time, like I I've said I've the upmost respect and admiration for their 10-15 day forecasts but the monthlies, pffttt!
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I wouldn't worry about the bbc or met office monthly outlook, they are a rough guide, rather than an accurate weather forecast.
Indeed, and I personally don't rate the monthlies one bit along with the ECM32 which they utilise to compose them. They are no more likely to get the long range stuff right then most who post on the MOD thread, now up until 10-15 days they are second to none.
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Why use white on bloody white, after a minute I had to kick it into touch as it was straining my eyes.I can not read the tex in the video, it seems very blurred to my eye's. Maybe im not disappointed after Dancers post
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I'm not sure what some people get out of windy wet weather, as a mildie it hasn't been an enjoyable spell of weather the last few weeks and yet more to come it would seem. The last 2 weeks have not been all that mild either, mostly single digit max temps.
Indeed, if it's got to be mild then lets have a bit of sunshine rather than storm after storm.
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Now that is a good point and one I would agree with GP, but not all peer reviewed science can be relied upon, more so in the world of closed shop science which appears rife within climates science. I think we best move on from here as we are way off the topical discussion for this thread.Without derailing this thread for it to become PC thread, I think much of people's scepticism stems from his refusal to divulge his methods - I certainly do not think they have been peer reviewed...
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Take no notice , Tis not your fault some have the sense of humour of a dead rat. Back tot he model output and I'm more than pleased with today's viewing and a few of us have been championing this sort of set up over the last couple of weeks, this was before any potential Strat warming. IMO anywhere from the North. Midlands Northwards could see some snow over the next 10 days."SIGHS" Yes i think the point has been laboured and the stocks are now being prepared in earnest!!!.Oh anyone got any ens info?thanks in advance
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Looks as if the MetO are now slowly climbing on board the cold express with the prospects of significantly colder weather possible towards the latter end of January.
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Looks like the MetO are also seeing the potential for much colder weather towards the latter part of January. It's been a fantastic thread again this year, with more and more new members offering some first rate analysis alongside our established members. Great work , even if I do have to constantly cross reference to the opening page to try and grasp a lot of the terminology used.
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I think the two main points for a route to cold are the jet digging South on the NE/SE trajectory and the lowering of heights over Europe, these for me are crucial regardless of whether we have HLB at this moment in time. The trend is for colder than average temps from around the 10th onwards and with plenty of toughing in favourable positions then it's only a matter of time before somewhere from the North Midlands Northwards sees low level snowfall, and then who knows maybe a push from the East.
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But any potential pattern change looks to be from the 10th onwards, the operative word being potential though.you're focusing on the wrong section of my post. We could argue over a definition till we are blue in the face... The main point stands, I cant see cold conditions taking hold of our weather. And nothing I've seen this morning changes that.
the Canadian ens, keeps the unsettled outlook motoring along by 8 Jan, with near normal temperature conditions.
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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
By the same token they aren't forecasting mild and zonal either, but what they are forecasting is a higher than normal level of confidence in it turning colder during the second half of this month.