UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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I'd say Ian Pennell's forecast was a fantastic effort, highly informative with sound reasoning as to why he felt this winter would pan out like it has. In fact I would go as far too say it's the best and most accurate LRF I've seen, now for the tricky bit can he follow it up for Spring/Summer. Over to you Ian!
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Britain set for BEST summer ever as nation says goodbye to winter from HELL
AS Britain's worst winter in decades is almost over, scientists are predicting this year's summer could be the BEST ever. After months of heavy flooding and hurricane-force winds, German researchers are predicting 2014 to be the hottest summer on record. So far, the UK has been bombarded with the worst floods in decades as much of the country struggles to cope in the hellish conditions. But the scientists say there is a 75 per cent chance that this summer is going to be an absolute scorcher. A study published by the scientists in the 'PNAS' journal, believes 2014 will have an El Niño pattern, where waters on the Pacific equator are warmer than usual leading to higher temperatures in summer. The forecasters at Armin Bunde of Justus Liebig University in Giessen, Germany have successfully predicted El Niño events over the past two years and are confident again.
A spokesperson for the Met Office said: "It could be right, but it could be just over Europe. "It's not entirely clear what area he is looking at." They added: "We do not usually predict the weather over such a long period as there are so many factors to consider. "It is far too early to tell. "Plus we need to get through what we're going through at the moment." With hundreds of homes still without power and much of the south west of the country underwater, the Government may be wishing it had flood warnings six months earlier. El Niño trends can be predicted six months at a time and the scientists feel the technique could be used to help countries prepare earlier for unexpected weather.
Lol, well that's the coldest summer on record almost guaranteed then now,what makes me laugh is their predictive success rate of the last two years. All and sundry got that prediction right, as for a El Nino, I expect a weak nino to develop throughout the summer and my track record is as good as anyones on these matters.
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This is quite an interesting article on the present cycle which these guys called correctly and the next one.
http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/2013-CdeJ-HN-Sun-climate-NS-5-1112.pdf
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I was talking to him about recent climatic trends. I led the discussion but he whole heartedly agreed with everything I was saying. I've read that historically (evidenced within natural sources such as tree rings etc), periods of sudden climatic change were preceded by wild swings between extremes. Is that not what we're seeing across the world at the minute? Added to that the strange behaviour of the sun and we could perhaps be a little bit curious as to just what awaits us in the not too distant future?
It's the same conversation I had with a senior geography lecturer who was also convinced that we would be headed into the freezer very soon.
I think the very same as the evidence for such an event is mounting daily IMO, but I would say that such events will be certainly be global and not just effecting the NH, with global temps starting to decline within the next 5 years.
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That's a rather odd thing too say GW, of course ice will disappear cometh the summer, that's not the point of the story as you know. It's quite exceptional considering it's only been recorded once before.Why do the sceptics love ice that will be all gone by late spring??? We've all seen the reasons for the freeze up ( and suffered from the results in the SW) but apart from the novelty of the story what interest is it in the environment section? Is it a linking to the enhanced Jet swings If so maybe look west a few hundred miles to the issues they've been having in Alaska with rain drenched mountains collapsing downslope?
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All the talk of the oceans acquiring masses of heat is put into perspective here.
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/26/the-relentless-increase-of-ocean-heat/
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UK Outlook for Saturday 8 Feb 2014 to Monday 17 Feb 2014:
It will be a wet and windy start to the weekend, with locally heavy rain spreading northeast on Saturday, and strong to gale force winds, locally severe gale in exposure. This will be followed by clearer, showery weather, these showers likely to be heavy and thundery at times with a risk of hail, and falling as snow over higher ground. It will remain unsettled and occasionally windy through the following week with further showers or longer spells of rain, these occasionally heavy and with hill snow in the north. The best of any drier and brighter interludes will probably be in the east and southeast. A dip in temperatures in the south around Sunday, but otherwise temperatures mostly near normal, the risk of frost and ice mainly in the north.
Updated: 1258 on Mon 3 Feb 2014
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
Looks like a rinse and repeat of the last two months. Hats off to the Meto, MOGREPS and GLOSEA 5 have been fantastic at spotting trends this winter.
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Good piece by Judith Curry, you know the only climate scientist who is actually thinks for herself.
http://judithcurry.com/2014/02/03/why-is-there-so-much-antarctic-sea-ice/
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It's a pity her claims temperatures in the 30s and 40s being similar to the 90s and 00s aren't backed up by the data, or the references she supplies (some of completely contradict her), not that most of her readers are likely to check them.
Anyway
I think you'll find that's not the case, as I'm more inclined to believe Judith Curry a climate scientist than BFTV a blogger on Net Weather.
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An interesting read from Judith Curry.
http://judithcurry.com/2014/01/27/early-20th-century-arctic-warming/
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Not at all as all previous data was using only selected data from the Indian and South Atlantic oceans, why I've no idea. Also the site in question is and remains a poor blogging site frequented by those looking to get their fix of doctored doom and gloom.Tunnel vision SI? Your opinion of the blog and data, and a pretty poor one at that.
What do you think? Perhaps a read of the actual sources for the data? Might teach you something.
Global surface temps have still not risen for 17 years, no amount of tinkering can change this.Quite
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Also,would that warming be the same warming in only the Indian Ocean and South Atlantic oceans, or are they now utilising all recordings of oceanic temperatures.
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Is that an attempt at trying to excuse the pause, can't take it seriously as it's from a blog site and a poor one at that.It seems that the oceans warmed up quite a lot in 2013 (all make believe and part of a grand conspiracy of course!).
The Oceans Warmed up Sharply in 2013: We're Going to Need a Bigger Graph
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sirs, you are deluded!
these people are weather forecasters and forecast without bias. and the vast majority of the popuation DO NOT LIKE IT COLD! forecasters included. and referring to gibbs/hammon as having a mild bias is actually quite insulting.
its only on these forums that cold lovers come out to play, so when they say 'at least itll be mild' they are giving out the news most want to hear.
as for a cold spell now.... lakes of ice? is that good news for those under flood? whats needed is dry weather, mild or cold but not freezing.
You want too see my local alleged metrology presenters on BBC North west, they definitely have a mild bias, but what they know about weather you could write on the back of a postage stamp. Also the vast majority of the UK aren't interested in weather or they would be posting here.
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Excellent facts about BOM and Australia "s so called record hot temperatures, ,BOM weather stations are all across Australia Wrong most stations are in South Eastern Australia! So more massaging of the facts.http://t.co/Tk8ATaiW1t
Keith, you should know now that facts are not what the manipulators deal in, remember the world sees a pause in rising temps but they see a continuing warming trend. This is why they despise Judith Curry so much , she deals in facts whilst they deal in deception.
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Sleet here with a temp of 4.8c
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Lol, now from anyone else I would sit up and take notice.Oh dear the other thread will have to be renamed. Climate change sceptics are 'headless chickens', says Prince Charles Charles uses green awards speech at Buckingham Palace to renew attack on 'powerful groups of deniers' http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/31/climate-change-sceptics-headless-chickens-prince-charles?CMP=twt_gu
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Cold paucity aside, I think anyone switching-off from model watching over the next few days - assuming they have broader meteorological interests aside from making snowballs - is missing a trick. I assure you the synoptics continuing to unfold are almost unprecedented, given the longevity and potency of the winter pattern already seen (and endorsed by Jan rainfall stats). These are serious times for parts of the UK weatherwise & rest assured, those considering current charts as 'dross' will reflect (the next time we sit beneath endless leaden skies of a prolonged phase of chilled anticyclonic gloom) how astonishing this period of model output has been - and will be next week.
Enthused or not I for one cannot find any enthusiasm for endless gales and rain, give me anti-cyclonic gloom any day and I'll leave the "fascinating" weather for others to enjoy.
On topic now and , well same old, same old, with no end in sight for any sustained cold unless the GFS has spotted a potential pattern change from now to eternity.
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Are you saying we should ignore anyone that doesn't have a PhD in a climate related discipline?
The qualified scientists have access to the best data, computing power, have been trained in the best methods and generally have the best resources available to them. They produce the vast majority of the peer reviewed research that we see, and the data that we use to produce analysis.
But anyone can perform their own analysis, use different methods and submit the research for peer review and whatnot. But the reviewers will be experts, and better able to determine the validity or soundness of the research. They can check the methods, ensure proper statistical techniques are used, check that claims are backed up by evidence, etc.
How have you come to the conclusion that so much research is poor, have you been cleverly concealing your credentials and expertise all this time
Not at all, but we should ignore those compiling data who aren't scientist for scientific purposes, i.e. IPCC reports and empirical evidence. Also by your own standards can we accept findings by scientist arguing against climate sensitivity and the impacts of CO2?
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I'd disagree with you. If the data is good and the research is sound, it shouldn't matter who produced it. Every single person in existence has their own biases. It's through utilising the scientific method that these can be largely overcome to help us understand the world
So we can make the scientist redundant then as there is clearly no need for them to be involved in the research, it's an odd thing to say BFTV and how do you define if the research is sound if you have a bias already. Maybe this explains so much why the research is pretty poor then as it's clear any Tom, Dick and Harry can get by the so called "gold standard" peer review process.
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We do indeed. What reports were they? And don't say Himalayan glaciers because that error was nowt to do with Greenpeace or WWF.
There are a number of Greenpeace activist who chair various groups knocker, I posted the facts about these last year. This in itself represents a conflict of interest where no conflict should exists.
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Luckily the IPCC reports are based off scientific research, and not the strange beliefs that a couple of contributors may or may not have.
Regardless of whether or not they have contributed much to the IPCC, shouldn't the quality of the data, and not who produces it, be what matters?
Actually yes BFTV and more so if they have zero credentials in climate science. I'm surprised that you of all people would say that?
Leaving aside the usual sort of engagement around here, would you not agree that it's far better that all research is conducted by scientists at least?
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But when you have the likes of Greenpeace and the WWF submitting reports that are included then we have a problem.I think climate scientists are always striving to improve our understanding of all things influencing the climate. New papers are released on an almost daily basis now.I think to disprove CO2 as a primary driver of recent temperatures, there are a lot of things that require brand new explanations. Such as the growing energy imbalance, the cooling of the lower stratosphere, nights warming faster than days, etc.The IPCC reports change as our understanding progresses and new evidence comes to light. The bible looks quite similar now as it did when I read it as a kid, and rarely changes.
Scepticism Of Man Made Climate Change
in Climate Change
Posted
There never is as it's always into the distant future, but back on planet earth we have seen no rise in global surface temps for 17 years. Big bad CO2 is certainly proving a handful for the alarmist call to arms as it's continually refusing to play ball with their projections of mass warming anytime soon.