devonhammer

I used to respect and even admire you, and now this. Breaks my heart

Last year was mostly a lesson in how much the preceding week matters. If anything we should be looking at a forecast for a fortnight rather than the five days so that we know what the ground will be like. Great to have your Glastonbury forecasts back @J10, can't wait for the first one.

Glad to hear you're on it again. Let the madness begin...

Thanks for all your work J10, massively appreciated

Most forecasts have rain, but not a lot.

J10, thanks for your updates. There are many people hanging on your every word, even if there aren't many comments. It looks like a nightmare to predict this year. If the lows stay a bit further North is could be completely dry and a bit further South, we could have substantial rain. It looks pretty likely that we'll have some rain, but pretty unlikely that it will be huge amounts. I'd rate this as a 5, but it's all to play for.

The GFS run this morning looks poor, but the ensemble shows it as a bit of an outlier and most of the other runs look OK.

Following a year off, I was trying to resist this until mid June, but it's like a drug. I know for a fact that any prediction made now is near-pointless, but still I check :-( As always, thanks for your efforts JackOne

You can't possibly do a weather forecast this far out. All that we have so far is variations on the norm for the month, so the UK might be a little bit drier than average and a little bit warmer than average and this can still hold true whatever weather we have at the festival. You'll get some idea from 14 days out, more data from 10 days out, a pretty good idea at 5-7 days out and a proper forecast at 3 days out (although 3 days out from the Sunday is the Thursday when most people are already there). There are several different sources of data and so the more these align, the more confidence there will be and the accuracy of the forecasts will be better further out in time. Of course, this is all pointless really, because we know it will be sunny

Have a look at http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess= Just pick the chart type from the drop down box and the time from the grid

Unisys seems fine to me now, but doesn't is just repackage GFS data anyway?

Welcome back WoW. You've been unmasked on the GlastoWatch forum and so now we all know what you look like :-)

Time to get excited about Glastonbury when the JackOne forecast start! I'm going to hold off on optimism until we get into GFS range at least. Welcome back everyone.

Review for the benefit of JACKONE: Thursday had thick sticky mud, Friday had persistent drizzle, Saturday was dry and Sunday was hot. This was not a mudbath on the scale of the bad years in the 90's. By Sunday the majority of the site was actually baked earth. There were patches of mud, but you'd be a fool to get really muddy on Sunday. The problem particularly up until Saturday morning was actually that not all that much volume of water had fallen and rather than wet mud we were mostly walking through clay which stuck to your boots and got very tiring. If I was to rate the weather alone and not look down then I'd call it a five at worst. Saturday evening was clear and warmer. Sunday was like 2010. Friday's headline slot had rain throughout, but it wasn't a problem as U2 seemed to thrive on it (I imagine it would have cause Beyonce a lot more issues). If the ratings are based on conditions (weather and underfoot) then it would be a very difficult system. It actually would have been easier to get about if the mud had been a bit wetter, but then there would have been more areas of standing water. On this basis, I think it's best to just rate the weather and let people use their own experience to decide what it will do to the site. Also site conditions were very dependant on how well they had spread the hay and wood chippings. All things considered I think JACKONE's forecast was good this year. He never strayed outside the 5-6 range and I think that's a fair reflection of the weather we got. Don't forget to take next year off Jack, and thank you very much for providing this service.

Final daily update: JackOne: Thursday mostly dry, Friday showers in the evening, Saturday possibility of rain, Sunday dry and sunny. TWO: Light showers Thursday afternoon, light showers Friday afternoon developing into rain overnight, largely dry Saturday with clear sky for sunset, dry Sunday . Meteox: Showers Thursday and Friday, dry and warm Saturday and Sunday. Meteo: Showers Thursday and Friday night, dry Saturday and Sunday. GFS Ensemble: Showers overnight on Friday, otherwise dry. Met Office: Showers overnight on Friday, otherwise dry. ECM: Showers overnight on Friday, otherwise dry. YR.NO:Showers afternoon and overnight on Friday, otherwise dry. Got to rush. Have a good one and massive thanks to JACKONE. Normalcaveats apply: 1) I know a bit about weather, not a lot about weather