kold weather

Some for the SW, a coastal kisser for the rest of the south. I think we are arrowing in now on a close but not quite scenario, albeit one that as mentioned earlier, still needs to be closely watched as all it will take is a minor shift to pull many more into the game again.

I suppose the one upside is the models are at least moving away from a zonal train that was being suggested a few days ago into one more dominated by a HP somewhere over W/C Europe. Should keep the worst of the frontal systems away from a large part of the country. This week does indeed look very cold, if we can drop away into some very low mins it might be a struggle to get much above 0c again. Its just a bit of a shame that the very cold week is going to be balanced out by perhaps a borderline exceptionally mild spell the following.

The METO not mentioning the southern region isn't that surprising, pretty much all the models they use mainly are in the 'southern' camp, UKV is south, ECM Op is relatively south, probably about 80-85% of the ECM ensembles are south or just clip with a tiny amount and UKMO GM is south. I'm sure they are keeping a watching brief just incase, especially as at the moment its a bit of a low risk high impact situation but the weight of all the global model output is still pretty strongly towards it remaining in the channel, if only by a little. History would suggest thats the most likely outcome as well. The fact there are small margins is why though it will still be watched, probably more than its probable 10-20% risk would normally warrant.

Whats again quite interesting though is there is a trend northwards, at least compared to yesterday. Yesterday 00z I didn't count a single ECM ensemble get the front out of the channel (out of 50 runs) today I'd estimate it at 25%. Its still further south than the GFS and I still personally think ECM is closer to the mark, but the direction of travel is something that need to be watched. Still it'll have to still be a decent shift up from the mid point for you to get anything, it will need a top 10-15% solution to come off.

This is probably a more complex evolution than your bog standard frontal system moving through, we've still got about 3-4 moving parts that even slight errors in strength in respective part will make the difference between snow staying in Paris and the snow making it to Birmingham. I suppose what I'm saying is don't put any stock in any model solution right now, either way. These things go awry far too often in both directions (though more to the south it has to be said)

These things are so difficult to forecast aren't they. I wouldn't be too confident even if there was decent model agreement at 24hrs out, we've seen them end up being just offshore more times than I can count and they *normally* shift south relative to the model expectations. It'd be nice for once if we can stick the landing on this one.

2022 nationally I'd agree, 2018 probably was the better summer if your looking at the whole package. Locally both had long dry spells but 2022 edges 2018 out on that front, we missed out on pretty much every little weak frontal/convective outbreak that happened during the pattern relaxes between the start of July and mid August. I think Odiham went somewhere between 40-45 days without rain and we did to. When it did finally break down we had some local flash flooding as it all just ran off. As for 2013, I think it was pretty good (July was borderline great to be fair), consistent, but personally made to feel better than it actually was due to 07-12 being so shoddy for summers, especially 2012.

Whats interesting to me though is the trend, that is an undeniable northwards trend over the past 3 suites and this has been present in nearly all models, including those that are still too far south at the moment. Wouldn't take much more of an adjustment for most of those to get things very snowy at least for the far south. Experience tells us these types of systems nearly always end up never making it to our shores, indeed I'm struggling to think of even 1 that has more than kissed the south coast beaches in my 20 years here, though there may be the odd one I'm forgetting. However, it at least warrents a close eye, its near enough that its probably a low possibility but high impact scenario.

To be fair, it'd probably record breaking, or at least real close...just on the wrong end! That being said that looks very much on the extreme end of the solution range thankfully!

Locally I'd say 2022 went even beyond 2018 in terms of just how parched everything became, and locally we had a few more days of nil rainfall than in 2018. Of course 2018 was more front loaded and probably longer, whilst 2022 extreme period was held within a 40-45 day period from early July through to mid August but was more intense at its peak, obviously!

I think regardless of how much the HP tries to build nearby the UK there is huge momentum coming from the jet around 168-216hrs that almost certainly kick it too far SE. Whilst the models maybe being too forceful with this, I think its pretty inevitable the Atlantic is coming back in, at least for a time. Before that we still have some interest, though experience suggests these channel runner lows tend to end up being just a little too far south. I suspect at this point that will be the case here as well and it'll be close but no cigar with this one, sadly. That all being said, I think we will get at least one more good shot at a cold pattern through February so for now I'm not hugely concerned about how rough the mid term looks. EDIT - 12z ECM is amazing at 240hrs, for all the wrong reasons, probably a record breaker there!

Certainly looks like a more active end to the month again, even if the GFS is overdoing the strength and speed of the low pressure systems coming across the Atlantic. At least the ground has dried out a little in the last week after abit of an onslaught.

I personally think we are well overdue now a very warm May, taking a look at the CET records and its surprisingly dominated by 1700s and 1800s months, especially when compared to just about every other month. May 1833 also hugely stands out compared to the rest of the set, but for us to be so far away when 5 months of the 12 month series come from the 00s suggests to me a hot May must be in the offing sooner or later.

To be fair that heatwave in August 2020 and the extremely sunny May probably ensures 2020 has a positive reputation, even if the rest wasn't anything great. Its worth remembering that before last year 2020 held I think 3 or 4 out of the top 10 hottest ever days (one at the end of July and the heatwave in August). Summer of 2023 is basically similar, with one very impressive month of sunshine/dryness and one impressive heatwave for the time of year.

Still early days but Tues/Weds looks very cold, perhaps severe Frost with ice days as well. The models by in large aren't too severe yet but they are based of -1/2c mins which in this pattern will be wildly out.

BBC probably too high for the first few days anyways. For example, out of the GFS, GEM and ECM ensemble runs (so your talking about 100 seperate runs) only 4 have temperatures of 5c or above for London on the 16th. 96% are colder. ECM ensembles have 1.7c as an average, GEM 1.4 and the GFS 2.1c. Upto 20th the ensembles of most models lingering around that 1-2.5c range for London, albeit with ever increasing range of options. With that being said, I think night mins might end up being more notable anyways...

Locally managed a small dusting from that, which combined with the thick ice that formed managed to make things look very pretty. I'd imagine for some areas that snow really did hang around a while. Its sadly going to be a spell though that will be long forgotten probably within the next 10 years, despite it being legitimately one of the coldest spells of the 21st century behind obviously Dec 10 and maybe parts of the 09-10 winter?

Sunny days at this time of year really highlight the changing length of the nights, already starting to notice things drawing out a little and that will really accelerate in the next few weeks. Of course basically no change yet for the mornings. Got a fair few weeks before it will be light when waking up, though even that will start to make ground in the next few weeks.

Classic cold spell sandwiched between milder spells based on current models. Hard to predict even with a modest degree of confidence where the CET will land, looking cold, perhaps at times subzero cold next week but then again we've seen in months like Dec 22 where we can be looking at a very cold month get upended by a mild final part of the month (of course Dec 22 was still cold, but we were down in the 0.x at one point!) A below average 61-90 really should be happening given just how cold next week might be if we do get plenty of clear skies under slacker conditions but we obviously don't have the confidence of later down the line should things go very SW based again for a while.

Just looking through the ensembkes and the amount of runs that don't have any sort of major low at all, and indeed some literally have nothing and just a pure northerly again. They really are struggling with what is to be fair a hugely complex evolution with about 4-5 different delicate moving parts.

I think thats a very real risk here, my only relief on that front is the PV is a wreck so any bursts of jet activity is probably going to be fairly small (on a typical macro scale!) which means we hopefully don't get stuck for several weeks with a raging jet blasting LP at us. As it happens the 18z GFS going for a 935mbs in the atlantic long way down the line which as said given the state of things I'm a little doubtful about, the GFS FI being what the GFS is afterall!

Far too early still regards to that low any old timers can tell you of modelled lows that look great at this time frame and barely end up with a closed isobar in reality and a weak front in the channel. Equally sometimes LPs that look relatively weak end up becoming more active and dropping alot, I particularly think of Jan 10 and to an extent the channel runner that impacted the south in early Dec 10. Both overperformed compared to the models even 48hrs out. Beyond that the zonal train tries to pick up again. Maybe a wet and milder spell will develop for a time and the 18z GFS puts a lobe of the vortex in about the worst possible place for UK cold, but the PV is smashed by this point and so whilst it may look a bit rough for a week or two I'm be surprised if a cold pattern doesn't remerge should we fail on the wedge front.

Gfs 06z is pretty outstanding for long term cold. A pattern that will just stick around. As for snow, there almost certainly be something that crops up at some point so no need to worry about that yet.

It's a total mess on the ensembles even on the macro level to be honest, complicated by the fact that relatively minor adjustments will make the difference between a 2 week exceptional spell and a rain event with a little snow for Scotland and SW airflow further beyond. I think we can only hope it falls favourably for is, it's been a little while since we've really lucked in.

Big difference is they are far more keen to keep the low towards the SE rather than swinging it up through England, means a great many more runs pull in colder air again behind, a few tight enough to probably cause a rain-snow event even in the far south. Most runs have a big snow event somewhere, has to be said mainly wet for the south mind you until some pull colder air back in. Then it becomes a roulette again with the hopes of slider lows/Scandi wedges. Quite a plausible evolution imom