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kold weather

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Everything posted by kold weather

  1. GFSp has been delayed till August because it is too cold in the lower atmosphere and I've seen this problem alot recently, often being 1-2c colder than other models. Unfortunately it has all the old problems the old GFS had when it was around in the 00s
  2. There has always been a climate range which usually shifts and waxes and wanes over centuries and even longer than that there are broader shifts which trigger melts/ice ages. The question is are we accerlating that pattern into hyper drive by increasing emissions. For now I'd still argue we are within the current long term climatic range, but every year that passes we seem to edge higher and higher into the extremes of that range and it won't take much more for it to get into territory that is a big outlier for the climatic range and can't be explained as anything other than AGW. By that point it may already to be late for some people in prone areas.
  3. There does seem to be an increasing trend towards extremes regarding different conditions. I'd say that it's not quite balancing out though, there is increasing warmth going into the system which is slowly pushing up overall temps, though clearly in the right amplified setup you can still get cold continents. Watch for another El nino as well which may get us close to the warmest year ever globally.
  4. Saw IC lightning on my way down the A3, presumably from one of the channel cells, good to see one so early, but caught me by surprise!
  5. I suspect to a degree we are just mirroring the opposite what the W USA has had, which is near record cold and record snow. So clearly the flow is very meridonal to allow to extremes to be occuring. What does seem likely is that background warming is making it easier for us to tap into temperatures that would have been unlikely. However for balance, I think Feb 98 with it's 19.7c would have likely matched the 21c if those setups occured at the same time as Feb 19, given that tht previous record was still in the first half of the month and two weeks of extra sun makes a decent difference at this time of year. Still exceptional though, for sure and as I said, I think we will see plenty more daily/monthly records fall in the next 5-10 years.
  6. Only 16c here today....only! A few weeks ago that sort of temperature would have been a very impressive mild temperature in it's own right, but now it feels a little plain!
  7. So close to 70f...can almost taste it. Would think one of the stations is going to push over that magic line between 2-3pm.
  8. Many 18c temperatures now, looks like overall this will be the warmest Feb day once all is done. as for the record, good chance it falls again today, we'll certainly be going north of the old record again as well.
  9. Quite a few 18c temperatures being recorded, which would be an exceptional daytime max for one station, yet alone 4-5 stations recording it at 12pm.
  10. RAF Kenley was at 16.7c at 11am, but highly likely Trawscoed will surpass that by now given the rate it has been rising this morning.
  11. 16.8 is an amazing daily record it has to be said, must be plenty of June/July days that have been lower than that!
  12. Had 19.1c as a max yesterday. We are up about 1c today so far so there maybe a shot at 20c here today as a max, which would be quite outrageous really for Feb!
  13. I think 21.1c is certainly within the realms of what is possible, the profile of the atmosphere looks a touch warmer this morning which was reflected in temperatures being broadly 1-2c warmer away from frost hollows first thing this morning.
  14. Should see a rapid uptick in temperatures over the next couple of hours. Biggin Hill up to 13c at 9.30 which is impressive. Kenley upto 15c at 10.
  15. Broadly temperatures are a solid 2-3c up in most places compared to 8pm last night. They may yet drop as low as last night however if they don't get quite that low, then a local 21c somewhere in the London region looks possible, and again in fohn exposed parts of Wales. That top 15 list is pretty amazing, all of those would make it into a top 10 warmest Feb day in their own right, yet alone the fact that 15 stations got above 18c!
  16. Well given we have broken the English record, I'd say it's actually very special. 1998 was very mild but this is pretty exceptional. 20c in London in Feb, it would a decent Max even in April.
  17. Yeah 19.8c, probably enough time to ekk out a legitimate 20c. Tomorrow even better shot at getting a few more in the 19-20c providing no fog forms. Here we got to 18.8c, and it's felt like one of those late spring/early summer type weather spells. Only the 2nd time I can remember comfortably wearing a t-shirt out in winter, other time being Dec 2015.
  18. I suspect tomorrow will probably be another 1c warmer overall, though exact maxes will depend on exact wind direction and extent of any fohn effect. Either way solid chance of 70f tomorrow, probably a little lower on Wednesday though probably still as mild/warm in the south.
  19. Yeah that is pretty common in these setups, the models do seem to struggle with these setups with large durinal ranges.
  20. Well it was quite obvious based on the models that we were going to be a very mild spell. As per normal the models we're broadly 2-3c too low with temperatures in the prime zone of hearing.
  21. Unreal! Maybe upto 21c today? Anyway this is a really historic day, first ever 20c in winter months, not quite as difficult as a 40c in summer, but still an achievement.
  22. I think tomorrow there is a legimate chance of 70f, profile aloft looks a little warmer again. Certainly is exceptional, whilst GW may make these sorts of temps more likely, this is remarkable for it's sustainablity. London is indeed not far behind, probably will see 19c somewhere in London as well. 20c today, maybe 21 tomorrow. Amazing.
  23. With another 1-2hrs of warming, the record looks like a done deal to me given we are at 19.3. 20c still looks on as well. Even London area looks like getting to 18, maybe outside chance of 19c today. Warm out there, especially in the sunshine.
  24. A cold start here down to -2 but daytime temperatures look genuinely warm, 14c here and already got multiple 15c being recorded in the SE a well. Probably going to see 18-19c somewhere in the London region.
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