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kold weather

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Everything posted by kold weather

  1. September has been a far more impressive month than August was down here, indeed its probably been better than all three summer months here taken as an overall package (plenty of sunshine, constant maxes between 20-25c, not much rain though the last few days will make up for that I fear.
  2. Your pretty much just having what the SE has had on and off for the last 3 months now, of course we down here are still suffering, though it has to be said this August has been somewhat drier than the previous months, though thats not exactly a huge improvement. Anyway down here in the SE we've now passed into the top 30 all time wettest summers. Some uncertainty from the models in terms of how much more rain is to be expected but even if we have 0mm more this still puts us into the top 20% wettest summers which combined with any sunny spells coming in 6-8 day stints and the rest of the time dull and cloudy means this summer has a real poor feel to it down here. Did have a couple of nice days late last week and the next 30-45 days are still very much capable of that type of weather.
  3. One more thing to throw into the mix is the development of Tropical storm Henri. Broadly the models haven't done a great job forecasting its southward extent and so Henri has managed to get into slightly warmer waters than some of the early cycles expected and therefore is stronger than predicted by quite a few of them already. Its worth noting that out of all the models on the 00z suite, the GFS has got one of the better grasps it appears on the background conditions. As per normal in recent years ECM has been nearing rubbish status with clocking TC development. Henri has a pretty good chance of becoming a hurricane Fri-Sun based on the current set-up predicted by the models that have more accurately got the set-up right so far. All this means I'd probably err closer to what the GFS is suggesting at this point as its likely handling the tropical injection coming early next week much better than the other models which broadly show only a very weak system (barely a TS) being absorbed and obviously the energy difference of a hurricane vs a weak TS is rather large!
  4. Looks like a more typical summer pattern is setting up for the upcoming week with LP to our NW and a ridge of high pressure to the south developing a more sterotypical NW-SE divide, though even in the NW its far from a washout. Looks like a fairly cloudy type of set-up though even for the SE with weak fronts dangling nearby. However the next 10 days do look considerably drier than the first 10 days outside of perhaps the more north/western parts of the country. Thats not to say there won't be rainy days in there, but especially for the SE, it does look more average fare finally again. Also - as of the 7th August the SE is now into the top 50 wettest ever summers, now at rank 45, just a few mm behind 2011 which will be overtaken as of the 8th of Augusts update and with what is on average one of the wetter parts of summer to come still...
  5. Problem is most of us know or are friends with people who are broadly of a similar demographic or likes range so we will all have something of a conformational bias within our groups. Even someone like @markyo will have that issue since he won't necessarily be meeting a broadly represented cross section of society. Also I suspect there is a timing bias as well. For example in a long hot summer I suspect the % of people who want cooler/wetter weather would be higher than after a summer of rubbish like we've had in the south. One hot week in July cannot override nearly 4 weeks of trash prior.
  6. Whats interesting is even the 00z ECM which had a decent 00z run actually wasn't very far removed from that pattern shown above. It would only take a weak main core to be located to the west (and perhaps a little more north) and the other low area to be a little weaker for that to turn into something very useable and something similar to the ECM/GEM pattern. The one downside is its a pattern that is highly unlikely to sustain, we'd still have to deal with breakdowns and probable LP attacks from the SW (which could be thundery possibly). I'd hate to call it at the moment, its a classic pattern that could go hot if all the pieces line up, but also has a fair chance of being utterly horrid if we get real unlucky. My guess is HP will build in somewhat but eventually it will lift NE, weakening, and we'll end up into a LP train again for a few days, followed by a rinse and repeat job.
  7. Talking of 2011 we are highly likely to pass 2011 total summer rainfall by the close of play today (there is an outside chance that feat was achieved yesterday in fact). Beyond that it does look drier in the SE it has to be said, and we probably aren't going to see much in the way of rainfall between the 3-16 day period unless we get real unlucky with the pattern (which is always a risk this year!), the ECM ensembles broadly showing 10-20mm between 00z today and day 15 down here, with a decent chunk coming in the first 48hrs of the run. Still a little early to peg the exact landing zone in the SE when it comes to total rainfall down here, but somewhere between the top 10 and top 30 wettest ever is the most likely location unless we have either a very dry spell from now on or a very wet remainder of the month, both of which are atm not the most likely solutions.
  8. Its probably gusting to 35mph in the convective showers that come through (EG Heathrow had a 31mph wind earlier and was on the outskirts of one of the convective lines at the time). Its not screaming, but equally your somewhat underselling it as well. Its breezy outside though, and in any heavy convection feels downright unpleasant with a gusty wind.
  9. My guess is your meeting alot of people who are likewise going on longer walks/journeys or of a similar demographic range as you, so probably your group is suffering from large confirmation bias as hiking in the heat really isn't much fun at all, especially if your carrying alot of stuff with you. I'm willing to bet if I went to a beach in Bournmouth during the July heatwave and spoke to sunbathers I'd probably have very similar levels saying they prefer the heatwave to the cold/wet.
  10. Really poor from the Met office, they had a fairly fragmented area of light-moderate showers coming into the area. Instead we got something that absolutely warranted a yellow warning IMO and in a part of this region quite an intense period of rainfall. AROME did a far better job with that area than the UKV, it at least acknowledged it even existed as a band!
  11. Very wet early morning as that convective train set up above this area. Since then definitely not a bad morning, though convection is always close by. Summer rainfall total now upto 191mm in the SE as of the 5th August, placing it no.57 in the all time list. About to make the upper 1/3rd in terms of rainfall down here with still a large portion of August to go. This weekend will easily take us into the top 50. Afterwards a bit of a drier spell coming up down here at least, though how long it lasts is anyones guess really!
  12. Looks like we are about to enter the type of pattern that holds pretty much the full range of options depending on exactly where the LP sets up shop (the further west it can stall out the better, but we do run the risk of another limpet low over our shores as well should it get east enough.) Before that though it looks like a wet, maybe very wet weekend for some, followed by a somewhat direr spell early next week (especially the further SE you go) though maybe still with rain at times further NW. Definately a chance of something hot, probably a higher chance of something at least more settled especially for the SE. However still the most likely solution looks like weak LPs being somewhere close enough to keep fronts/troughs swinging into the general region beyond next week. Im still hopeful for the 3-4th week of August, though again I think it will be an improvement rather than anything to noteworthy in its own right.
  13. I'm a little surprised the met haven't put out a warning, its probably already put 20-30mms down in some parts and that train still looks reasonably solid as well. I've seen less given a warning before.
  14. I don't think I could rank this as the very lowest tier where I am, we've had a couple of decent spells that have lasted 7-10 days with temperatures decently above average and sunshine, and there have been some real summer stinkers that didn't even manage that low bar. Still at least down here, this will go down as a relatively poor summer. As for the CET, that is reflective of yes there being higher mins (a combo of lots of cloud in the south keeping mins up and the heatwave) and the northern half of the country having very impressive max warmth over a 7-10 day period (the south was obviously warm during day as well, but it was nothing out of the ordinary here tbh). I suspect for the northern half of the country it will go down as a good summer, for the Midlands probably an average summer, and for the south probably a poor, maybe very poor if August ends up a shocker.
  15. Very nice day today, as other have said its the kind of day that has been in very short supply down here in the SE this summer, its either cloudy and coolish, or very warm/hot. Anyway after a decent couple of days looks like the entire country is about to go down the pan into a rather unsettled spell of weather. Its hard to look past anything other than an above average rainfall month for the EWP at the moment, though still a little early to be that confident about that. As for the SE, now above 2004 total rainfall and into the top 60 wettest summers with most of August to go.
  16. I still think there is a reasonable shot at something more summery towards week 3/4 of August, though its very possible that it even ends up into very early September. Its also worth noting that it won't IMO be a wall to wall sunshine jobbie either, and we may see a pattern of breakdown/HP growth, just for that 1-2 week period it will lean more HP than we've seen most of this summer. I've been saying for a few days now that the GFS in particular was being too aggressive in bringing in a drier pattern for the 10-12th onwards, I think we are probably going to have to wait at least another 7-10 days on, and if there is delayed tropical activity it may well extend even further IMO. Sadly for us in the south its been a summer of feeding of scraps really.
  17. Yeah the mins have been the main story for the south, though the heatwave did bring decently above average maxes for a week for pretty much the whole country. Because of that I think for the south its going to be perceived as a somewhat cooler summer even if the actual statistics don't really bare that out due to those high mins due to the very high cloud levels outside of the two one week long hot spells this summer. One thing that 100% will be the case is the summer is going down as a very wet one for the SE in particular!
  18. I think the GFS maybe onto something with the pattern BUT IMO is trying to push it through a little too rapidly (say by 3-5 days too quick) I do feel the ECM is being somewhat too flat though with the pattern, its not been too flat all summer (hence the wetness in the south and into Europe due to diving lows getting stuck in quite a slack flow overall.) so I'm not too sure its going to become quite as flat as that either. This leaves us IMO in a bit of a middle ground for the 2nd week, where I feel we will see influence both from an Azores high and also LP to our NW, with the exact dimensions and extent of each influence still yet to be decided. I do suspect that by the 16-21st August the Azores high will really start to more strongly establish particularly into the south but for now the ensembles seem to be unsure to what extent that occurs again.
  19. Not a bad start here, yes it was a cool start for the time of year but the sun is still decently strong for another month or two so it still feels pretty warm, especially in sheltered. I'm still somewhat hopeful for the 3rd week of August to really get things more settled with an Azores high. I don't think it'll necessarily be 'heatwave' material like that last spell but we can still get very wonderful weather at this point.
  20. SE now upto 181mm for the summer (upto 31st July) which put the summer in the SE already above 2020 and now 2008 as well. Currently ranked at no.62 wettest ever but clearly with a month to go its only going one direction. At this point even an average August takes us upto 19th place wettest ever. A wet first week looks pretty likely now though. Whilst there are still hints for sure that the Azores high will probably make an attempt to ridge in during week 2/3 of August, there is large uncertainty as to whether or not its going to be long lasting. My personal gut is this pattern of dropping LPs has been very established all summer and I'm not seeing enough yet to only cause more than a bump. Just for reference a somewhat wet August takes us above 2007. A very wet one could still end the SE above 2012. I'd be tempted to say its highly probable we end up above 2007, 2012 though may well be on the top end of what is still doable.
  21. Yep its definitely been a lopsided summer compared to the average! The SE has as of the 28th already overtaken the total rainfall of 2016/2008/2002 and only a few mm behind 2019 which probably has already been overtaken due to todays rain. Pretty clear the SE is coming in above average since its already there, but the real question is whether it just ends up being a wet summer, or an exceptionally wet summer. My inkling is the Azores high will come in for a 7-10 days period in August which may prevent this summer heading into the top 10 ranking, but I still suspect a top 30 ranking is quite possible atm.
  22. Just a few hints still from the models that the Azores high is going to move in from the 10-15th period, though my guess is the models are being a little overly progressive on that and something more like the 15-20th sounds more reasonable. Unlike most of the summer so far it does seem like for now the south is better with the ridging stronger further south you head. However we are still a ways off yet and probably going to have to suffer another turgid 2-3 weeks to get there and whether a 7-10 day more settled spell is worth a 20-30 day unsettled spell is very much questionable unless it really is very good country wide like the last one.
  23. I think you do need to remember that whilst the area is indeed small, that area that was average or above makes up something like 40% of the population so it will obviously skew the postings. Besides it really is hard to explain just how dreadful the 2nd half of that month was if you didn't experience it. Personally that period was up there with the worst summer periods I've seen. For my location we had Average-cool temps, 200% of average rain in about 12 days, 6hrs of sunshine in over 2 weeks. It really was utterly shocking compared to average. Its not been helped by having a really shoddy May and a outright cold April (though at least it was sunny). Overall though June goes down as a very regional month for sure. July will be wet on a larger scale as we are already above average in the EWP upto 27th and its only going one direction.
  24. With still over a month of the summer left upto the 26th July the SE has now exceeded the average summer rainfall! Hard to imagine this summer not being in at least the top 30 of the wettest ever, and thats almost certainly a conservative call. Top 10 very much on the cards as well given the first 10 days of August look pretty unsettled as well.
  25. The thing is its been quite a widespread warm month, down here in the south bar last week its been very average, but for the north I'd imagine this month will be significantly above average and probably up there in terms of the all time rankings. This whole summer so far has been a real odd one in that we've had a NW-SE split but in favour of the NW whilst down here in the SE it has been a warmish month (even without the heatwave it was still not too bad temp wise) but again pretty wet.
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