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kold weather

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Everything posted by kold weather

  1. I suspect the extent will still probably get close to where it has over the last 10 years or so but given a slow start you've got to wonder what sort of depth and quality of ice is going to develop in what may end up being a shorter than normal frozen season (especially further out from the ice rump left from the summer).
  2. Given we still have a couple of hours of warming to go I suspect that 32.5c will be gone by the end of the day as well. Certainly been an interesting summer, short and sharp intense heat bursts interspread with fairly bland and fairly wet spells.
  3. Yeah there are often differences. FWIW having done a few site comprasions between the average and the actual temps in central Africa that recorded below average according to that NCEP weatherbell chart (admittiedly not too many sites) but having looked at them for Congo and CAR and RoC but I'd guess the truth is in the middle but skewed more towards NOAA being correct, certainly Bangui was well above average, whilst the NCEP chart shows below average, which is 100% wrong for at least that site and therefore likely that section of the country. Still what I think is clear is July 2019 was well above normal on a global scale (0.3c above the 81-10 average is pretty impressive, especially as nearly none of that was ENSO induced and for it to be the warmest month ever or 2nd warmest, without ANY major El nino forcing is quite the eye opener to me!)
  4. Yes 2nd place is looking increasingly likely now, but its still a very bad summer season up there no matter how it is looked at. It'll be interesting to see how the Russian/Alaskan section of the Arctic develops over the next 2-3 months, they've had an exceptionally warm summer up there and the SSTs are way above normal bar small little upwelling pockets here and there. Could be a late freeze in that part unless the weather gods are kind and a subsequent thinner ice sheet over the top that is prone to melting out quicker. 2013 was thankfully an ok year for the arctic so the basic recuperated some of its losses in 2012, lets hope 2020 is also as kind, otherwise we may have yet another step down as we saw from 07 onwards.
  5. The danger for Greenland is once you start to get temperatures that can reach above 0c even at highest points you begin a slowelting process that in a warming world will be tough to switch. Reason being your going to be losing height across the sheet, meaning that by itself will lead to warming temperatures regardless if surrounding dynamics (as lower heights generally relate to higher maxes, at least in summer) and it starts to become a feedback loop. Of course such a situation on its own would likely take a very long time...but we keep on increasing temperatures by 0.5c every 25 years (imo probably the best case scenario) and that will enhance melting, especially at the fringes of the sheet which will naturally be thinner anyway.
  6. The clue is in the maps. The weatherbell is taking the 1981-2010 average 30 year average which should be much lower than the NOAA, which is using the 1900-2000 average (to show the difference in the longer term to what it has previously been). Both show an above average world, but what is REALLY clear is how much warmer it has been this July compared to the very long term average globally. To be 1c above the long term average is quite shocking actually, especially given the distinct lack of any strong El Nino forcings in play.
  7. There were a lot of PWS showing 101-102f in the region. I see no reason why it wouldn't be realistic. If it is, we have broken the record!
  8. Amazingly after the cloud has passed here, we are back close to the peak, just 0.3c cooler than the peak an hour ago, but more cloud coming in so will drop away again soon.
  9. Suspect we will be struggling to find a higher temperature now. Pretty close to the record though despite fairly considerable cloud cover at times and showery outbreaks, impressive effort for sure and we did manage to get that 100f for just the 2nd time!
  10. No.2 and by some distance as well. Certainly a very hot day, got to think we will be getting more days like these as global temperatures elevate over the next decade or two.
  11. Cor this is getting VERY close indeed, over 100f now but still a little short. I'd say the period between 3.30-4.15pm is key, if we are to break it it is going to fall over the next 45 minutes. Unfortunately there are weak showers moving in towards SW london however. Will be interesting to see what Writtle/Cambridge are showing, plus other stations in the surrounds.
  12. Finally got some decent cloud cover moving in again, good spell of sunshine pushed my local area back upto 35c again but given radar presentation and time of day, I suspect I may finally have peaked. Great day though, 35c is the hottest day of the year and 2nd hottest I've ever had in this country (obviously August 10th won that one, we were at a similar temp to Gravesend, though being the opposite side of the estuary was just a smidgen lower.)
  13. Regardless its not the record, as the record would be a 39c due to it being rounded up from 38.6c, so no great issue really either way.
  14. Well to be fair he said rounded, didn't say up or down unless I missed it, could just as easily be 38.2c for example?
  15. Yeah, Heathrow also has a decent clearence now for the next hour with only probably 2/8th cloud cover feeding in. I'm an hour downstream and still only around 2/8th's cover (well somewhere between 2 and 3/8ths) so Heathrow has a solid hour of that to work with at least before temps naturally start to slip away a little into the late afternoon and early evening.
  16. Personal weather stations around Heathrow back on the way up, several have leapt up nearly 1c in the last 20-30 minutes,a similar rise for the official station would put us within touchig distance of the record at this point. Probably 45-60 minutes of warming left before we level out and cloud increases again from the south, especially for London based stations.
  17. I think someone calculated that as of 2pm the record was already tied, and since then its only gone upwards a little further. Could get close to 34 once all is done.
  18. I'd say between now and 4.30pm is going to be the do or die time, nice clearances for Cambridge and only a moderate level of mid-high cloud for Sw/W London over the next 90 minutes means I think there is still a good shot at the record going. Tight run thing though for sure. Need just 1c extra (0.9c for Kew/Writtle), though Writtle may fall away as the cloud cover increases as showers move in.
  19. Offical highest temperature today at the moment of 37.7C in Kew and Writtle. However I suspect both Heathrow and Cambridge will warm this hour as the cloud cover for both areas looks lower than it was for the previous hour.
  20. Yeah there is enough time, temperatures can rebound very rapidly from showers with the atmoshpere this hot. IF Heathrow hasn't recovered at least to some extent by the next recording, then we may have to concede its out of the race, but still there for the moment. Cambridge and surrounding region clearly also very much in the game.
  21. I wouldn't be shocked if they are holding back on announcing any record, simply due to quality checks, etc. Still we will see, as you say many stations above 38c in that region now.
  22. Not surprising, given the convective line was basically right on top of it at 2.50pm, of course with extra cloud cover and rain nearby it was going to be dropping...I'm impressed it hasn't dropped more, Gatwick dropped 3c during that band for example! Suspect the 3.20pm will be back upto 37c, then the run for 38.5 really begins as it enters an area of somewhat less cloud cover pushing into Surrey at the moment. In the sunnier slot and temperatures now at the highest point all day, just a little north of 35.
  23. Quite a large gap now opening up between the line of showers over London and to the SW of it, as this area of lower cloud cover (though NOT 100% clear for sure!) I think we will probably have another run at the record over the next 90 minutes or so in W London providing nothing unexpected bubbles up. If it doesn't break by then, then I suspect we will be out of luck.
  24. Not really, but it will only need a moderate bump in the warming to allow it to get above the 38.5c temperature record. Same goes for Cambridge, especially now the showers have cleared off to the north.They will have a 2hr window roughly of decent sunshine which may do the job.
  25. I'd say we are down to 2/8th from around 4/8th 30 minutes ago, sun coming through bice and strong with little cloud to the SW/S at the moment. This air I have should end up in the Heathrow region around 3.15-3.30pm roughly and I suspect is going to give another round of warming for W.London once it does.
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