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kold weather

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Everything posted by kold weather

  1. Worrying how each of the last three years had quite slow regrowth into October. Hopefully that isn't a sign that the optimal freezing window is starting to shorten yet further. Of course if you get a good PV winter up there, then it is recoverable, but eventually we are going to get unstuck with that with a more amplified jet up there.
  2. Microwave imagery strongly hints that Delta is going through a quickfire EWRC. Recon found no evidence a few hours ago of a secondary eyewall but with such a tiny eye the internal structure will shift very rapidly and such systems have often simply powered through and not weakened at all as they normally do when undergoing this process. Recon will probably give a better idea of whether this is actually happening. Such tiny eyes are rarely very stable for too long. I know the NHC don't think this is the case, but its very suspect to me and whilst I bow down to their superior knowledge, its
  3. Well it was a cat-3 for all of about 2hrs! Thats very explosive strengthening happening at the moment. Been on the cards for a while but I see little reason not to call for a cat-5 now, the waters its travelling are the most favourable in the entire basin and it historically has popped off deep systems in the past. The heat content is basically akin to the WPAC - and this system is evolving into a system similar. Also - hard to not look back at Wilma and see some comparisons...worryingly its probably near 950mbs and 130mph and still hasn't got an obvious clear eye yet.
  4. Latest recon dropsonde almost certainly justifies 100kts, possibly even 105kts. 115kts recorded from the dropsonde, allowing for that being a possible gust, we still likely have major hurricane Delta and it will join Beta 05 as the 2nd such 'greek' hurricane to become a major. Eye should be popping out soon on IR more clearly, on zoomed in imagery the eye is quite easy to spot even in visible. 5mbs drop between the last 2 passes.
  5. It basically will pull an Opal from 1995, or Lili from 2002, where it will probably get to 4/5 (my bet is the latter) somewhere in the Nw Caribbean, or if it does miss the Yucatan, then possibly far south of the Gulf. The further west it can get the longer it will stay in the warmer waters, but the coastal shelf looks like it has cooled alot, so it will probably develop quite a lopsided look like many weakening canes tend to do coming into landfall in the GoM area. Still could be a 2/3 though IMO. Extrapolated pressure down to 959mbs. going to be some big drops I suspect today. Still thin
  6. Some strong structural development overnight, though it hasn't as of yet been able to keep a solid eyewall around that very small eye which has stopped it from really bombing. With that being said, IR is starting to become very suggestive of a pinhole eye and recon reported a 8nm eye. Still a reasonable chance of getting to cat-5 with this, though as with all pinhole eyes it will be somewhat at the mercy of tiny changes aloft and internal structural changes. If the eye does pop out, expect some very rapid deepening.
  7. Don't be surprised if this ends up as a category-5 at some point in the next 36hrs. Also pressure is very low compared to what you'd expect, somewhat close to what we'd see usually in the WPAC. Recon just extrapolated a 978.4mbs which for a borderline high end TS/cat-1 cane is a very impressive pressure recording. Also don't be surprised if this ends up somewhat close to 900mbs as well tomorrow providing it doesn't have any unexpected hiccups.
  8. Front hanging on in the SE far longer than last nights Met office forecast predicted, I was a little shocked when they said today would be sunny and showery in the SE, never thought that looked hugely realistic apart from perhaps the very far SE as the fronts back edge looks fairly thin cloud wise. This is probably almost as far west as the main band will go. The eastern portion of the front may wel ebb and wane until the main band swings back eastwards as the LP pulls away over N.France and takes the front east over our neck of the woods again.
  9. Still looks to be strengthening to me, dvorak estimate from myself would be around 4.0, though its edging closer and closer to 4.5 but not quite there yet IMO. I'd say probably looking at 70kts at the moment, one of the stronger storms in the med. Really do need an agency to start monitering these systems, especially as the med warms due to climate change true warm cored systems are going to become more possible.
  10. Deepening eyewall rotating around the center forming a weak eye feature. Dvorak curved pattern, probably a 4.0 though an argument might even be made for nearly 4.5 in terms of the raw number anyway. Using my 16 years of watching the tropics, I'd hazard this is around 65kts at the moment, maybe a touch less to allow ramp up time. However I really do hate the term medicane.... This is probably is/going to be a hurricane. I suspect Med countries don't want to have to open a basin in the Mediterranean (currently no one is responsible for this area, despite many weak/moderate systems
  11. Well we are seeing a legitimate steady state high end cat-4 here. As I said earlier probably 135kts landfall, just a hair beneath cat-5. High end cat-4 making landfall in the US are very rare. A storm this strong making landfall anywhere in the Atlantic is rare, one hitting this part of the gulf even more so.
  12. Some amazing videos already coming out. Probably enough data to warrant upping the winds to 135kts post season but not enough to get to cat-5 imo. Laura is now the joint 5th strongest ever landfalling US hurricane, just for some perspective (Behind 1935 labor Day, Camille, Andrew and Michael). I suspect post season it will hold that rank on its own.
  13. Yep, literally at most 100ft above the surface there. I think its almost inevitable we are going to get a 135kts at some point in the next 2-3hrs from one of the two planes that will be soon in it (Noaa already in, AF plane currently enroute.). I'd be surprised if we don't see a cat-5 just before landfall...almost a twin to Michael in that respect, just not quite as deep.
  14. Dropsonde reporting 128kts at surface, so probably does support 130kts and not quite 135kts at the moment. However... Those 140kts are literally just above the surface (at most 30-40m), you've got to think that on one of those passes one of the recon planes is going to clock a legitimate 135kts+ SMFR or a dropsonde that gets above 135kts. Won't be long I'd have thought given some of the velocities aloft on radar and that dropsonde report. Probably odds on we get a cat-5 now.
  15. Also as per normal with these systems that turn north, track now looks just a little to the east of where the official forecast was expecting. These systems nearly always error to the east.
  16. Winds definitely justify 130kts, so expect that to happen very soon from the NHC. SMFR reported a 133kts, so its mighty close. IF we get a legitimate 135kts dropsonde report or if the 2nd recon airplane can get a 134-137kts type wind with SMFR they may well go with 135kts and pull the trigger for a cat-5. Very borderline either way at the moment. Extrap pressure down to 937.4mbs
  17. Southern eyewall on radar just looking a touch less full than it has been in the last hour. Could be just the first hints of shear starting to impart upon the system. Probably won't weaken the system all that much, especially the northern quadrant at this point and given how relatively close to landfall we are now. Probably going to have to be the next two missions of recon if we are going to get a cat-5, preferably within the next 2hrs I suspect.
  18. Even at 145mph it pretty ranks up there on its own. Makes it the 3rd strongest USA landfalling hurricane since Andrew, only behind Hurricane Michael of 2018 and Charley. 150mph makes it joint 2nd with Charley.
  19. Next recon is probably going to be do or die on that front, especially with the risk of some shear possibly just starting to impact from that point onwards may just prevent any further strengthening past 00z. Something to keep an eye on. Regardless this is likely going to be one of/the strongest hurricane to ever impact this region and a high cat-4 is going to be very destructive.
  20. Couple of points: 1: NO hint of any EWRC at the moment, no obvious moat nor any double wind maxima showing. Suggests the inner core is still tightening up. 2: Thus far no obvious signs of any mid level shear. Its a close call as to whether it impacts Laura before it makes landfall as there was observed earlier today near the coast. Can;t rule out some shear on this just before landfall but its a borderline call. 3: The latest dropsonde has winds around 135kts+ literally a few hundred feet above the surface, with 155kts around 900hpa. To me in my experience, would suggest gusts c
  21. Yeah it's going to be a close call. I think it's just going to fall short BUT even if it held current strength at 120kts it'd be the 2nd strongest landfalling hurricane on US soil since Andrew, only behind Michael of 18 I believe. Imo around 130kts looking around the mark. Not impossible to squeeze a cat5 still.
  22. Offically now a category 3, first major of the season. As for whether it becomes a 5, typically systems in this part of the GoM don't get that high, but then again there is always a chance...I'd say something between 125-135kts is looking probable, anything above that is at the whims of any EWRC and maybe the shear.
  23. I think I saw on the dropsonde something borderline cat-4 around 800mbs up, not hard to see that mixing down to the surface in pretty quick order given the strong convectiob and tigthening eyewall. Simply put, this will 100% be a cat-4 sooner rather than later. Beyond that and something in the 920s would be my best guess for lowest point, but its a large strong hurricane and regardless of 940 or 920 its going to be a very powerful hurricane upon landfall, even if there is a little shear around to take the edge off the top end at landfall.
  24. Extrapolated is probably well off for the NOAA flight (it quite often is when flying higher up). BUT AF recon flight has shown it down to 961mbs extrap now, so thats a drop of 7mbs in 45 mins from the previous flight (and the previous flight was a direct hit on the center, so thats a legitimate drop! Expect a 4 sooner rather than later, and likely going towards 920s based on everything I'm seeing at the moment. Probably will be a 4 by 18z as winds may take a little time to catch up. Eye really clearing out rapidly at the moment and the eyewall looks very solid now and closed looking
  25. Classic evolution from banding eye with a weak convective eyewall (you see these often in the WPAC) through to a more classic strengthening CDO, helped by a drop in the northerly shear that was from the north. IMO we will probably see quite large pressure drops in the next 24hrs, though winds maybe a little laggy behind that pressure drop unless the core has really tightened up compared to earlier. Recon flying through right now, suspect we will see pressure somewhere in the 983-980mbs range, but I maybe off there! If I am off, its going to be lower than I expect. PS - track wise, th
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