kold weather

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About kold weather

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    Mr.AO
  • Birthday 07/11/89

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    Ockendon, Thurrock
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    west-ham,flight-Simulator 2004!!
    Weather, esp the tropics!

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  1. It is weakening and it has been elongating for a little while now looking at the radar. Still the models never were forecasting that strong of a system, moderate snowfall seems most likely, hence why the idea of 1-3cms for most in the track was always about right, maybe a small area of 5cms, but it will be a tight line right along the core of the system.
  2. Yeah its horrible to track these little features, especially as even small differences in strength will dictate exactly how hard the SE drop ends up being. I would imagine the met office will wait for it to keep its strength a little before issuing any warnings. The NMM looks further east as it loses the identity of the low a little sooner so it tugs rapidly Se/ESE around the flow of the main low. I suspect a small swathe will need warnings but the highest snow cover will probably be over a fairly small area in a line running NW-SE. Where it will be is hard to say.
  3. Looks interesting to me, the track is at the moment a little further SW than it expected but its not that far off.
  4. Need to move it a little east, center is currently NE of where you have it confirmed by radar and pressure/wind obs. I think the broad trend is right mind you, just a little east IMO. Perfect track for me mind you!
  5. Just a few hints that the low is starting to elongate a little on the radar as the models suggested that it would, probably starting to weaken a little, though that won't impact on precip just yet I'd have thought.
  6. Its a grand question, I think it looks like a Polar low, its in marginal conditions for them to form but the source is good for it and the structure is great. With that being said, it kind of reminds me of the Jan 2010 low when it was near the south coast, especially on the radar and that was a similar low that formed in a broader cylconic flow from the north/north-west. Won't be as much though as its more convective rather than frontal in nature like that one was.
  7. I think thats quite close but I'd go a touch south and east than that, with a movement slowly swinging more and more SE as time goes by. SSE for the next 6hrs then more pure SE afterwards. All those years of hurricane tracking and forecasting is going to come in handy here I hope!
  8. Just for fun, and we can have a look in the morning. This kind of small scale low is notoriously tricky to forecast, so don't feel pressured As you say radar is going to give the true image of exactly where the center is located, on the Sat.imagery the LP center looks like its tucked into the SW corner of that swirl of cloud circulating around the core. Track will depend on strength of low, the weaker it goes the further east it'll get as it start to rotate more into the broad flow around the parent upper low, the stronger it is should mean the further west it'll stay as a distinct feature of its own and won't get tugged so easily into the main flow. Interesting situation that is for sure.
  9. Its not even as simple as temperature. For example you could have upper temps near -40 but because the sea is too cold lapse rates arent high to drive the convective process. Equally if you get -32c but the seas are a solid 2-3c warmer than average then you will have a better shot at having enough instability to develop it than if the temps were -32 but normal ssts.
  10. To be fair they werent keen on some settling snow in some places this afternoon... Very uncertain. Its going to be a nowcast again.
  11. Notbad runs today, cyclonic northerlies always can produce little features at short notice and I wouldnt be shocked if that happens again here.
  12. Seems to be sleety/snow in guildford. All very light so difficult to know. Certainly wasnt rain though.
  13. I think the models are trending towards cold zonality, just enough amplification for people further north and west to have snow chances. Turgid charts the further SE you go, but NW airflows rarely deliver in this neck of the woods bar the odd tail end of a streamer from the NW. certainly a different winter for most than last year even if result is similar in terms of snow amount for a fair chunk of the country.
  14. Lots of debbie doubters in here. Things look better today than 24hrs ago. Cold is a touch deeper, first front doesnt even make it. Thr second pluse was always going to be the more interesting one as conditions and timing are better. Im sure most will see falling snow at some point, especially if that small low forms and wraps the front into the colder air being pulled down on Wednesday night. Settling snow is alot trickier mind you! Maybe Tuesday is a write off but this event is going to over-run several days and someone will get lucky in this region.