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kold weather

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kold weather last won the day on October 29 2020

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  1. danm fascinating, so there is also an increase in rain days, albeit not too intense of a change. Probably down to showers just being a little more intense on average leading to a marginal increase in days getting over 1mm would be my guess.
  2. Interestingly on the rainfall front looking a the UK as a whole, since 1931 7 out of the wettest 10 years across the UK as a whole average have been since 2000. Considering thats over 90 years of records, to have 70% of them be in a 23 year period is pretty telling in itself...and I think a little high to be just coincidence.
  3. I've just had a look at how rough the mid summer period was down here in 2021. For those of you in the north, you obviously had a good summer. Down here, I locally had a 28 day spell with just 58hrs of sunshine between June-July. For context, that would be a below average *February*. Compounded by getting roughly 300-350% of normal monthly rainfall and maxes being 1.5c below normal. It might just be the worst ever summer period I've personally ever experienced. Whilst August was also dreadful, in contrast it didn't feel quite as bad as that period. At least early June and mid July were decent which saved it from being quite as rough as the likes of 07/12, despite that dreadful period. Just felt like a rant on that summer, and to help the northerners here understand just how rough it actually was down here.
  4. reef Sounds like our version of 2021 down here in the SE, bar the first 7-10 days of June and a 5 day period in July it was a utterly dreadful summer down here, made even worse that statistically its actually pretty good for much of the rest of the country, so causing considerable envy. I still contend that locally the spell between mid June 21 and just before the July heatwave was amongst one of the worst I've ever had in summer, even comparing to summers like 07 and 12. Kind of an inverse to the usual, I can't imagine we see that kind of pattern all that often. EDIT - just looked up the local station for June-July 21. We had a 4 week period which had just 58hrs. For context, that would be a slightly below average *February* total locally....
  5. You only have to look at how rapidly things shift in a continental airflow to know of course things can shift pretty drastically. It's just far more rare here as we are surrounded by water which will always nerf extremes.
  6. danm that would personally be my reading of things. the only real way to know 100% would be to look at rain days and what the numbers look like. You could convicably have less rain days but higher average. Of course in recent years with sluggish broad patterns such setups are producing exceptional spells on a fairly regular basis
  7. danm i think what is making it feel wetter is in the last few years in particular we've got into real ruts, where we can go 45-60 days with exceptional rainfall followed by almost the same tine without any. It does also need to be noted that on the ewp metric there is a clear sign of more extremes. With about 260 years in the bank you'd expect 2000-2023 to have maybe 2 years in the top 20 wettest years. This period already has 6. 2019 literally sits at 21 so it is also in the top 10%. 2008 would also make the cut. I think our distribution of wet/dry years may not be changing biut I do think on a very long term average we are getting more extreme wet years.
  8. Interestingly there is one trend that does keep popping up into El Nino to La Nina years and that is got a spark geographic divide in August. The south/SE typical has the better of the weather, N/W often cooler and wetter as well. 2010 is ironically the only one to buck that trend somewhat in August.
  9. March 2013 was the 14th coldest ever recorded. Its not quite in the same league relative to its position as December 10, but it was a pretty impressive month nonetheless, especially when knowing the 2nd half was the colder part of the month. April 21 is a more modern version of a coldish month, it's equivalent winter CET would be about 1-1.5c which would be regarded as a cold month even in the past, nowadays would probably be quite severe if combined with snowfall.
  10. Summer8906 interestingly it was a nice afternoon here, though the morning was not the best. I had a similar look to that photo, but maybe a little more high cloud.
  11. B87 really does show how dreadful 2021 was down here. Id guess something like 100-125hrs came within the first 10 days of June which were actually pretty decent. So we probably only managed 350hrs for the whole rest of summer, which would be pretty meh total even for spring!
  12. CryoraptorA303 I wonder whether we need to adjust for temperature inflation to get a better steer? Given the Atlantic is running way beyond even last years record (in itself a huge anomaly) I think perhaps looking at Febs/Mar combos a good 1c cooler may yield something to draw upon? Have to say the summers where we will a fast transition to La Nina have tended to be on the poorer side of things, SB did a list on another thread and it was not a great list overall.
  13. raz.org.rain there are always going to be other factors. With that being said historically a strongish nino that too rapudly goes La Ninw tend to be on the poor side. If we get a slower transition through summer then we may get away with it. However we haven't got a huge number of years to compare with and you do need to take each year at its own merit.
  14. One look at the CET tells the story. We've been more or less around the 7c mark on that metric for the last four months, bar a spell in Mid Jan. There really has been an amazing lack if variation recently. I really do think it's fair to say we've just had a very long extended autumn this year. Still patterns don't go on forever and they usually abruptly shift for better or worse so gotta keep an open mind. Last spring for example, terrible March, totally meh April, may started off very wet but pattern shifted around the 10th and we ended up having a pretty sustained and decent spell. Shame it fell apart again in July.
  15. MattStoke thing is if it timed later the day before would have been cooler, the night mins cooler due to the lower daytime temperature from the day before which would probably mean that whilst the warming the next day would have been higher itd start from a lower base which probably levels out at the surface. there is a theoretical max that an airmass can support regardless of timings afterall. How close we were to that is up for debate.
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