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kold weather

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kold weather last won the day on September 4 2011

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About kold weather

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    Mr.AO

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    Ockendon, Thurrock
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    west-ham,flight-Simulator 2004!!
    Weather, esp the tropics!

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  1. Agreed, I'd perfer this evolution to what we would get if the upper high was placed too far north to start. Besides, I'd probably take this run if it led to a big snow event like it does between 240-264hrs.
  2. Its interesting because we do get an upper high but in a slightly unusual place, to the east of Newfoundland, that in conjuction with the PV relocating again keeps the jet south, effectively its acting like a west based-ve NAO, even though in truth it isn't.
  3. 240hrs is just jaw dropping, LP in the bay of biscay with a near perfect cold set-up aloft, somewhere (either N.France or S.UK)will cop a big load of snow on this run between 240-264hrs. Ps, willwe get that Greenland high I mentioned 20 mins ago between 264-288hrs? Maybe...
  4. Amazingly the flow is EVEN BETTER than the 06z from the east by 192hrs. The upper high isn't quite asimpressive but that is splitting hairs really. Sub zero maxes and lots of snow, frontal snow in the north at 180hrs with a lot of showers on either side of that time. PS, watch for possible Greenland high around 264-288hrs.
  5. Got to say we are getting good cross model agreement on the broad synotpic pattern and how it develops. Exact placement and timings are still to be decided but broad trend is looking good. ICON for example is slower but the pattern still evolves the same.UKMO places the upper high further NW but still develops in the same way, etc.
  6. 12z UKMO going for a more northerly HP which is FAR bigger risk as the atlantic has a real easy route to coming back in. As it happens the 12z UKMO *should* be ok as the upper high is just west enough to ensure the cold air bleeds in from the east. No good having a great upper high too far north and the Atlantic coming back in before the deep cold has even arrived! GFS better than UKMO out to 144hrs, both for depth of cold AND longevity. UKMO is still a very good run, probably would still evolve into a really great run, but its far more iffy than the GFS route.
  7. Just to give an idea of just how cold some of those ensemble runs are, a couple would be cold enough aloft to support a polar low...exceptionally rare to get that level of depth this far south, especially this deep into winter!
  8. Nah itsj just the models don't have the resolution to really model showers properly, the flow from 216-240hrs is PERFECT for the SE, I'm betting 6-9 inches in that 24hr period,but the GFS is pretty poor at picking up showers because the resolution is too coarse. According to the GFS the SE never gets snowfall from an easterly
  9. Man the 240hrs chart! Take a look at how circular the upper high is, nearly perfect block just sitting there! Still cold air coming in from Europe at288hrs, by this point its actually 'homemade' cold over the cold snow fields of Europe.
  10. Outstanding 06z GFS, that upper high is nearly perfectly placed on the 06z GFS and the shape is just unreal. Close to perfection! Miles better then the 00z GFS,night and day. (though as has been said, the 00z GFS is still in its own right a pretty good run!) Wonder what the ensembles will suggest..
  11. Yep and this 06z run shows why a further south upper high is better... Anyway this is going to be another epic run. The flow is still a little flabby on the southern side as the low over the Azores pumps up the pressure close to our shores but still great synoptics.
  12. The upper high is in a far better position for sustained cold and we are geftting in the cold air in just over 4 days now, so thats looking locked in now,its the big cold that is uncertain. Cooling down through Thurs and Fri, probably weak convection starting by 120hrs but would be a wintry mix, especially during the day.
  13. Yeah if we are going to get sub -10C temps aloft with pressures below 1030mbs we should spark up some convective activity. IF we go anywhere close to the ECM, there is going to be plenty of embedded troughs and large amounts of convective activity. Lets see what the 06z GFS brings,would like the upper high a touch south.
  14. It does prevent the deepest cold but we are still around -10C, plenty cold enough and that shortwave would probably spark alot of convective activity. So swings and roundabouts really.
  15. The ECM has been very consistant that the -5C isotherm comes over the east of UK in the first half of 26th. That dhas been been that way the last few days at least. Amazing ECM ensembles overall again, still some uncertainty regarding exact placements of the high BUT nearly all are deep cold at least for 36hrs. Lets pray the train keeps rolling, at least I think some form of easterly is a near certainty, but will we get the big one?
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