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kold weather

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kold weather last won the day on September 4 2011

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About kold weather

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    Mr.AO

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    Ockendon, Thurrock
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    west-ham,flight-Simulator 2004!!
    Weather, esp the tropics!

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  1. Also ALOT faster than most 00z models, which at this point had this in N.England/S.Scotland still. HIRLAM s the only model that is close, and it shows a decent snow event, especially for EA and Kent.
  2. Will be leaving work soon, going to need to go over the hogs back near Guildford with elevations of around 150M. Strongly suspect it'll be snow at that height by the time I get there.
  3. SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

    Also just to add looking at the latest models for some (especially closer to the coast and further west in this zone) it maybe more likely to be a wintry mess, with a combo of all three main states. In heavier bursts, snow, in lighter sleet/rain.
  4. SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

    I like to lurk, especially as there days I have a very busy work life. Still for these set-ups, I'll try to remove myself for a brief time to get on here...just occasionally! I'd think along the downs maybe a slight risk of blizzard conditions for a time, regardless of settling snow.
  5. SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

    Timings are so important for settling snow, if it comes 1-2hrs later there could be a larger area with good falls, comes 1-2hrs earlier and the extent of settling snow will be high ground and maybe lower ground Essex and Kent.
  6. SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

    Haven't posted here for a while BUT this set-up is worth commenting on. Its very marginal, any height (say 100M) is going to make a difference as will the intensity AND the time of day the back half comes through. The later it happens, the better as it will help the evap. cooling to kick in easier. Some places will get a decent fall, some will have just rain and a few (likely on high ground) will hit the jackpot and get good settling snow. Friday morning tentatively looking less marginal but timing is key again, earlier the better.
  7. It is weakening and it has been elongating for a little while now looking at the radar. Still the models never were forecasting that strong of a system, moderate snowfall seems most likely, hence why the idea of 1-3cms for most in the track was always about right, maybe a small area of 5cms, but it will be a tight line right along the core of the system.
  8. Yeah its horrible to track these little features, especially as even small differences in strength will dictate exactly how hard the SE drop ends up being. I would imagine the met office will wait for it to keep its strength a little before issuing any warnings. The NMM looks further east as it loses the identity of the low a little sooner so it tugs rapidly Se/ESE around the flow of the main low. I suspect a small swathe will need warnings but the highest snow cover will probably be over a fairly small area in a line running NW-SE. Where it will be is hard to say.
  9. Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

    Looks interesting to me, the track is at the moment a little further SW than it expected but its not that far off.
  10. Need to move it a little east, center is currently NE of where you have it confirmed by radar and pressure/wind obs. I think the broad trend is right mind you, just a little east IMO. Perfect track for me mind you!
  11. Just a few hints that the low is starting to elongate a little on the radar as the models suggested that it would, probably starting to weaken a little, though that won't impact on precip just yet I'd have thought.
  12. Its a grand question, I think it looks like a Polar low, its in marginal conditions for them to form but the source is good for it and the structure is great. With that being said, it kind of reminds me of the Jan 2010 low when it was near the south coast, especially on the radar and that was a similar low that formed in a broader cylconic flow from the north/north-west. Won't be as much though as its more convective rather than frontal in nature like that one was.
  13. I think thats quite close but I'd go a touch south and east than that, with a movement slowly swinging more and more SE as time goes by. SSE for the next 6hrs then more pure SE afterwards. All those years of hurricane tracking and forecasting is going to come in handy here I hope!
  14. Just for fun, and we can have a look in the morning. This kind of small scale low is notoriously tricky to forecast, so don't feel pressured As you say radar is going to give the true image of exactly where the center is located, on the Sat.imagery the LP center looks like its tucked into the SW corner of that swirl of cloud circulating around the core. Track will depend on strength of low, the weaker it goes the further east it'll get as it start to rotate more into the broad flow around the parent upper low, the stronger it is should mean the further west it'll stay as a distinct feature of its own and won't get tugged so easily into the main flow. Interesting situation that is for sure.
  15. Its not even as simple as temperature. For example you could have upper temps near -40 but because the sea is too cold lapse rates arent high to drive the convective process. Equally if you get -32c but the seas are a solid 2-3c warmer than average then you will have a better shot at having enough instability to develop it than if the temps were -32 but normal ssts.
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