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kold weather

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kold weather last won the day on September 4 2011

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About kold weather

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    west-ham,flight-Simulator 2004!!
    Weather, esp the tropics!

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  1. FWIW the possibility is there for a month similar to this and Dec 2010. Its probably at the very extreme end of BA's envelope but its at least within the scope of what is possible. That is a utter rank outsider, but something to just keep in the back of the mind if we get lucky! If we do get southerly tracking LPs and continental drifting, we probably only require -2/3C 850hpa to get snow, and maybe even -1C under a snowfield.
  2. Oh yeah I wouldn't go beyond saying there is a very strong -ve NAO signal, the ECM ensembles are more onboard than the GFS, though that also does have the signal clear to see within its suite. Things could go wrong in that set-up btw, like the upper troughs don't dig far enough south and we remain on the warm side of the jet instead, but I think its highly likely we are going to get really strong blocking which should make that less of a threat. Instead look for an Azores low and attacks from the SW on a fairly regular basis.
  3. These 18z ensembles ARE the snowiest I've ever seen from about 264hrs onwards, multiple runs have big lows that inject just enough cold air to keep most of it as snow, quite a few blizzards modelled as well. Snow Freak, I think just give it 10 more days and you'll be on the cusp of a great cold spell, its supported by most teleconnections as well as long range models, far more than the failed easterly ever was. EG, 100% agreement from the eCM ensembles on the broad idea of a -ve NAO, that is rare.
  4. Control run from GFS 18z is kind of my worst case scenario for the set-up in early Feb. Still get a cold spell but a lobe of the disjointed PV ends up over Greenland and forces a WNW back onto us again, though could easily rinse and repeat again. Still a very cold and snowy back end to the Jan and early Feb though...
  5. PS, big rain-snow event for the south on the para run on the 28th, for the east it starts and remains as snow. Broad totals are 10cms for CS England+Wales and west Midlands, 20-30cms for SE+EA and east Midlands. Proper little channel low there... Ah well, we can dream!
  6. Early FEB CET wise is pretty much as cold as Jan is, its still prime time as the sun still isn't that strong, plus there tends to be a little less marginality due to slightly lower SSTs. There ids a reason our best snow set-ups tend to occur in Feb/March... Anyway. The GFS para is a lot slower in developing high latitude blocking but trend is the same/ I actually think the para timing wise is probably a little more realistic by the way. Still very good run with the jet still diving SE. The low at the end of the run is overdone however...
  7. Yep, GP, Blue, myself and a few other shave been saying all day that there is a pretty robust signal coming down the line for a development of heights over the northern latitudes towards the front of February. If anything that signal has strengthened further today and faster again. IMO it maybe coming through a little too quick now and may delay 1-2 days, but the broad trend is looking a lock to me already. The long range is starting to remind me a lot of Nov-Dec 2010...early days still of course!
  8. I'm amazed. Man with Bread just put the 12z ECM clusters up... 100% agreement on -ve NAO solution for early Feb. That is a heck of signal!!
  9. Ok so my general analysis looking at all the ensemble data from the 12z suite is this: 1: Easterly is done for in all probability, stil a chance the blocing high holds for longer than planned, but actually not sure its really going to benefit us and a clean break will probsably allow phase 2 onwards a chance. 2: A portion of the PV lobe over Canada starts to get elongated and relocates SE towards NW Europe (roughly) ariund 216hrs. Possible cold WNW/NW flow, though how cold is still somewhat dependant on just how much cold air comes withthe PV.as it stretches out. I'd suggest marginal snow events quite likely and watch out for possible higher levels of storminess as well, especially from any secondary lows that come in on the southern flank, could fire up quite fast. 3: Upper high forms over Greenland some point between 180-240hrs and helps to shove the upper low set-up to the SE. Should develop into quite a good set-up aloft, may not be ultra robust but it will do the job and the Azores High should help to keep propping up the pattern and keep it pretty stable. I would think for now northerly to maybe NE most favoured. If we are lucky that could lock into quite a significant pattern that holds for a time.
  10. Yep I think its actually a fairly solid and easy evolution, one I've personally seen come off in many different seasons. Singularity earlier on gives a good suggestion as to why its quite likely, we would have to be real unlucky in terms of where the upper troughing set-ups not to get a good spell out of it. Anyway 18z is still solid, strong NW push around 216hrs (maybe some transient cold even before that though, both ECM+GFS bringing in a weaker NW airflow around 168hrs today) then that motion at 216hrs from the vortex is basically the code for open g the flood gates in terms of true northern blocking.
  11. ECM 240hrs actually even quicker with the evolution than previous runs in starting to pull in a -ve NAO signature, maybe due to the better placed Azores high this time, but interesting and good to see.
  12. Not all SSW are born equal for those wondering about it. For example quite a few didn't actually impact the troposphere, some like 2013 only really got going 3-4 weeks afterwards (aka March 2013). Models are at least hinting at a decent burst of High level blocking occurring at the start of Feb, so that is a key date just to keep an eye on.
  13. Yeah ,the arctic profile looks a little better as well in terms of heights, it doesn't look that mild at the surface at 144hrs still either.
  14. Yep collapse of the high over the UK at 120hrs from the ECM operational run, but its all looking very flabby out there I have to say, no real clear drivers of this pattern at this point... Would't take a big adjustment for the block to stay firm near the UK on this run I feel.
  15. Better disconnect from the PV lobe on the 12z ECM at 96hrs, but probably still going to end one way though.