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kold weather

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About kold weather

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    west-ham,flight-Simulator 2004!!
    Weather, esp the tropics!

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  1. As I said a few days ago the conditions for the next few days is brutal. Sea ice extent is really going to fall away during the next 20 days, especially whilst insulation from the sun is still high. IMO as I said, we are going top 3, it's just how bad it goes.
  2. Have to say the profile of air coming up has more than a whiff of central US early summer about it. Models suggesting some huge cape present. Normally I'd be very sceptical as dews as high as forecast usually is a fallacy...but the profile looks so extreme that we may get air that genuinely resembles the tropics next week. Of course it will be much more moderated compared to down there thanks to the far cooler says, but impressive either way!
  3. Got to say the next ten days do look pretty brutal, near constant WAA into the central Arctic, any cold spots are in useless locations. Increasingly confident this is going to be a top 3 year for melt...it's just how high does it go in the list.
  4. I think to my eye FV3 looks a touch off and the 850hpa profile is very odd with little pockets of extreme heat coming up but broadly not quite as mad as previous. I doubt it has too much support for that exact evolution...though I'd still suspect a 35-36c from it which lest is forget is pretty impressive for the UK. what we lose in extreme heat from that 12z, we gain in convective potential, so not a bad trade off to be fair!
  5. I tend to agree with regards to record breaking temps, a slight easterly drag is going to effect the surface temps somewhat rather than a pure SE which would be ideal. also SSTs/ground temps are more modest as mentioned. Still, a similar blast happened in 2015 and that shot a rapid fire 36c at a nearly identical time of year. I don't think we will get a record, despite how impressive the uppers are, but I do think we'll get a solid top 5 hottest temp ever...and the real story with the heat will be just how oppressive it will feel...probably will feel closer to 40c.
  6. exceptional 850hpa profile coming up. Surface temps aren't as extreme as you would think but they are likely 2-3c undercooked this far out. Also those few points are rough...going to feel exceptionally hot, regardless of how high temps actually go.
  7. have to say ive had very similar 2012 vibes. There was a very wet spell that month at a similar time. Also interesting to see a broadly similar evolution to 06-07 play out over the past 12 months.
  8. Its a pretty impressive summer rainfall event, especially for the SE and I'd be interested to see the return rate for this much rainfall in the SE section, especially for a summer month. From a brief scout its rare to go above 25mm for a daily average, but I'd guess we have a fair shot at going above that, especially as we still have a good 90 minutes left of the day.
  9. Still coming down here at a decent rate, but nothing compared to that corridor of heaviest convection. Given the strength of the convective line, some areas are going to clearly going north of 50mm for the day which is a very impressive total.
  10. Already a decent swathe of the country in the 15-20mm bracket today with more to come. So likely to see a decent rise today, and again for the next few. Could be a very wet month in the EWP if this type of pattern locks in.
  11. getting strong memories of June 2012 at the moment. Very wet afternoon with some heavy rain. Will be interesting to see storm totals once done come around Thursday time.
  12. Ben Noll has recently tweeted saying latest ECM long range is hot for Europe. Also looks drier than normal from anomaly map. Just something to think about...hot Europe may not necessarily mean hot here of course even if it is accurate.
  13. Those USA heatwave indexes are not really usable like you are. They are relative to the 10 year mean and are compared to what would normally be expected within a 10 year return rate, so the 30s had some pretty severe events RELATIVE to the mean...but the mean is just about everywhere still heading northwards, so for example a marginal heatwave event on your chart in the 20s/30s would not show as a heatwave event in the 00/10s as it would no longer be a 1 in 10 year event, but a lower number (EG 1 in 8 years, etc). This is probably a more useful chart with regards to extreme heat events as they are a true reflection of hot days within the states: As you say there does seem to be a little bit of uncertainty due to different understanding of indexes. Hot days are roughly at the same severeity as the 30s, night time mins are soaring way above...which makes sense as the 30s was broadly caused by a desertification type event (dust bowls , hence dry air which normally leads to higher maxes and relatively not as severe mins compared to maxes) whilst the warming now is purely from the global masses warming up around the states and the SSTs also heading northwards from all direction, hence why mins are holding up increasingly well. So the 30s was caused by a relative small scale event on a global scale, whilst the warming now is being caused by warming happening from at least 3 sources (Atl/Pac and the Arctic). As for hurricanes, I don't personally think there is yet a solid case for saying there has been an increase, there maybe an argument for storms undergoing faster RI but as each basin measures intensity differently (Indian Met is horrid for example, very often way to slow at upping strength!) which always makes it hard to compare. Still I don't think we have been accurately looking at TCs outside of the Atantic before 1960s (1940s/1950s should be fairly accurate, BUT they could easily miss those subtropical storms/NE Atlantic storms that often get caught these days) so past years are highly likely under-represented. Unfortunately Humans are selfish and we self-preserve as best we can. We (global collective here) lack the courage probably required to make the changes that will be required, and sadly our planets ultimate fate probably will be something akin to Venus (ok not that extreme!) but a kind of runaway warming. To an extent some areas may benefit (we maybe one such area in theory) but many will suffer and unless serious infrastructure work is done now, some parts of the world will likely be too extreme for natural life as we know it right now What event will prove to be a tipping point, I'm not going to pretend to know. We could be just a few years away, or perhaps still 50-100 years away, in which case we may still be able to tech our way out of it...my gut though says its closer to the former than latter...but in terms of human live, its probably still too far away for us to wrap our minds around it.
  14. Certainly a chance that this the highest we will get this Easter, though a chance tomorrow does get to 26c. Monday looks just a tick less impressive but it won't be far off those figures.
  15. Already several 20c+ recorded, should easily sail past the bottom few forecasts. AROME going for a local 24 near Heathrow, and also 23-24c locally on the south coast.
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