kold weather

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kold weather last won the day on September 4 2011

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About kold weather

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    Mr.AO
  • Birthday 07/11/89

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    Ockendon, Thurrock
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    west-ham,flight-Simulator 2004!!
    Weather, esp the tropics!

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  1. Also ALOT faster than most 00z models, which at this point had this in N.England/S.Scotland still. HIRLAM s the only model that is close, and it shows a decent snow event, especially for EA and Kent.
  2. Will be leaving work soon, going to need to go over the hogs back near Guildford with elevations of around 150M. Strongly suspect it'll be snow at that height by the time I get there.
  3. Also just to add looking at the latest models for some (especially closer to the coast and further west in this zone) it maybe more likely to be a wintry mess, with a combo of all three main states. In heavier bursts, snow, in lighter sleet/rain.
  4. I like to lurk, especially as there days I have a very busy work life. Still for these set-ups, I'll try to remove myself for a brief time to get on here...just occasionally! I'd think along the downs maybe a slight risk of blizzard conditions for a time, regardless of settling snow.
  5. Timings are so important for settling snow, if it comes 1-2hrs later there could be a larger area with good falls, comes 1-2hrs earlier and the extent of settling snow will be high ground and maybe lower ground Essex and Kent.
  6. Haven't posted here for a while BUT this set-up is worth commenting on. Its very marginal, any height (say 100M) is going to make a difference as will the intensity AND the time of day the back half comes through. The later it happens, the better as it will help the evap. cooling to kick in easier. Some places will get a decent fall, some will have just rain and a few (likely on high ground) will hit the jackpot and get good settling snow. Friday morning tentatively looking less marginal but timing is key again, earlier the better.
  7. Looks like a reasonable cold period that is coming up, as SB has said the breakdown is being pushed back somewhat now, and whilst its never very cold, if the spell lasts long enough we are likely to see the CET coming down towards average by the end of the month, though I think it may come in a smidge above still, especially as models like the GFS tend to under-do max temperatures in W/NW type airflows.
  8. Yep, quite the contrast from last year thats for sure! Going to be a very below average March to go along with the below average start. Too early to tell how this years annual CET will go, afterall the first 3 months of 2006 were a little below average overall.
  9. Got a Slight risk warning out for Day 3: SPC AC 160820 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES THRU THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BRANCHES OF STRONGER FLOW THAT PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU ON FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CURRENTLY PRESENT...AND CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE...AS A STRONGLY DIFLUENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK...SHIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 90 KTS. ...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES... DESPITE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL DATA...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. EVEN IF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...AS COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE WEST...SUFFICIENT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES EXHIBITING LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER...OR CLUSTERS...AS WELL AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC THREAT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE EITHER MIGRATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...OR REDEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. ..KERR.. 02/16/2012
  10. Ouch, bitter weather: .STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL PROVIDE FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 BELOW AND 35 BELOW ZERO IN PLACES LIKE BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...RUGBY...HARVEY...AND CARRINGTON. CLEAR SKIES AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO...COMBINED WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 30 BELOW AND 35 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. PLACES LIKE BOWBELLS...SHERWOOD...BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...RUGBY...HARVEY...AND CARRINGTON COULD BE AFFECTED BY DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES.
  11. Weather warning here: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 149 AM MST THU FEB 9 2012 .A FAST MOVING WINTER STORM CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS REPORTED LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THE UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE REGION OF THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WAS THE EXCEPTION. AUTOMATED SNOW SENSORS WITHIN THE HIGHWAY 550 CORRIDOR FROM OURAY SOUTH TO RED MOUNTAIN PASS INDICATED AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE STORM WAS JUST MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THEREFORE SNOWFALL INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BECOMING SCATTERED IN NATURE BY MID MORNING. COZ018-091600- /O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0010.120209T0849Z-120209T1600Z/ NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OURAY...TELLURIDE...LAKE CITY 149 AM MST THU FEB 9 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING. * TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...DECREASING TOWARD DAWN AND FINALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND SCATTERED BY MID MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE 550 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF RIDGWAY TO THE TOP OF RED MOUNTAIN PASS. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH. * VISIBILITY...LESS THAN 2 MILES...DROPPING TO 1/2 MILE IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. * IMPACTS...TRAVELERS ON HIGHWAY 550 SOUTH OF RIDGWAY CAN EXPECT ICY AND SNOW PACKED ROADS...ESPECIALLY OVER RED MOUNTAIN PASS. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS DURING THE ADVISORY PERIOD.
  12. Seems like its been a very busy Jan, I heard its the 3rd most busy Jan ever with 70 reported tornadoes. Thats very impressive if true!
  13. I think the Beeb have done a good job so far with this set-up, though obviously uncertainty remains over how they will do with the frontal system this weekend, but the fact they have kept the options open is quite good to see.
  14. Frankly given what we had in Nov-Dec, I'm not sure anything can moan about a milder spell we've had recently!

    1. Eugene

      Eugene

      Yes and dont forget the colder thsn average january, if July was 0.5C above you wouldnt hear the last of it

    2. Eugene

      Eugene

      Kold do you really think if we had the equivalent of Nov/Dec/Jan but a near record breaking warmth to end May and the second hottest June on record and then a July 0.5C above average that you would get the same old moaning?

      I know the answer