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kold weather

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kold weather last won the day on April 15

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About kold weather

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    Liphook
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    west-ham,flight-Simulator 2004!!
    Weather, esp the tropics!

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  1. Still looks to be strengthening to me, dvorak estimate from myself would be around 4.0, though its edging closer and closer to 4.5 but not quite there yet IMO. I'd say probably looking at 70kts at the moment, one of the stronger storms in the med. Really do need an agency to start monitering these systems, especially as the med warms due to climate change true warm cored systems are going to become more possible.
  2. Deepening eyewall rotating around the center forming a weak eye feature. Dvorak curved pattern, probably a 4.0 though an argument might even be made for nearly 4.5 in terms of the raw number anyway. Using my 16 years of watching the tropics, I'd hazard this is around 65kts at the moment, maybe a touch less to allow ramp up time. However I really do hate the term medicane.... This is probably is/going to be a hurricane. I suspect Med countries don't want to have to open a basin in the Mediterranean (currently no one is responsible for this area, despite many weak/moderate systems now being recorded over the last 40 years). my cynical side is its all for tourism reasons which many of those countries depend upon heavily. Not a great look to suddenly be in a location that is at risk of a hurricane. A 'medicane' can just be discarded easier due to less association.
  3. Well we are seeing a legitimate steady state high end cat-4 here. As I said earlier probably 135kts landfall, just a hair beneath cat-5. High end cat-4 making landfall in the US are very rare. A storm this strong making landfall anywhere in the Atlantic is rare, one hitting this part of the gulf even more so.
  4. Some amazing videos already coming out. Probably enough data to warrant upping the winds to 135kts post season but not enough to get to cat-5 imo. Laura is now the joint 5th strongest ever landfalling US hurricane, just for some perspective (Behind 1935 labor Day, Camille, Andrew and Michael). I suspect post season it will hold that rank on its own.
  5. Yep, literally at most 100ft above the surface there. I think its almost inevitable we are going to get a 135kts at some point in the next 2-3hrs from one of the two planes that will be soon in it (Noaa already in, AF plane currently enroute.). I'd be surprised if we don't see a cat-5 just before landfall...almost a twin to Michael in that respect, just not quite as deep.
  6. Dropsonde reporting 128kts at surface, so probably does support 130kts and not quite 135kts at the moment. However... Those 140kts are literally just above the surface (at most 30-40m), you've got to think that on one of those passes one of the recon planes is going to clock a legitimate 135kts+ SMFR or a dropsonde that gets above 135kts. Won't be long I'd have thought given some of the velocities aloft on radar and that dropsonde report. Probably odds on we get a cat-5 now.
  7. Also as per normal with these systems that turn north, track now looks just a little to the east of where the official forecast was expecting. These systems nearly always error to the east.
  8. Winds definitely justify 130kts, so expect that to happen very soon from the NHC. SMFR reported a 133kts, so its mighty close. IF we get a legitimate 135kts dropsonde report or if the 2nd recon airplane can get a 134-137kts type wind with SMFR they may well go with 135kts and pull the trigger for a cat-5. Very borderline either way at the moment. Extrap pressure down to 937.4mbs
  9. Southern eyewall on radar just looking a touch less full than it has been in the last hour. Could be just the first hints of shear starting to impart upon the system. Probably won't weaken the system all that much, especially the northern quadrant at this point and given how relatively close to landfall we are now. Probably going to have to be the next two missions of recon if we are going to get a cat-5, preferably within the next 2hrs I suspect.
  10. Even at 145mph it pretty ranks up there on its own. Makes it the 3rd strongest USA landfalling hurricane since Andrew, only behind Hurricane Michael of 2018 and Charley. 150mph makes it joint 2nd with Charley.
  11. Next recon is probably going to be do or die on that front, especially with the risk of some shear possibly just starting to impact from that point onwards may just prevent any further strengthening past 00z. Something to keep an eye on. Regardless this is likely going to be one of/the strongest hurricane to ever impact this region and a high cat-4 is going to be very destructive.
  12. Couple of points: 1: NO hint of any EWRC at the moment, no obvious moat nor any double wind maxima showing. Suggests the inner core is still tightening up. 2: Thus far no obvious signs of any mid level shear. Its a close call as to whether it impacts Laura before it makes landfall as there was observed earlier today near the coast. Can;t rule out some shear on this just before landfall but its a borderline call. 3: The latest dropsonde has winds around 135kts+ literally a few hundred feet above the surface, with 155kts around 900hpa. To me in my experience, would suggest gusts could well get into that 135-155kts range in the strongest eyewall convection on the Right Front Quadrant. IF Laura undergoes any further deepening those 135+ winds likely to be dragged to the surface and a category-5 at that point becomes very probable. 4: Turn NNW now started. IMO any error will be to the east from this point onwards.
  13. Yeah it's going to be a close call. I think it's just going to fall short BUT even if it held current strength at 120kts it'd be the 2nd strongest landfalling hurricane on US soil since Andrew, only behind Michael of 18 I believe. Imo around 130kts looking around the mark. Not impossible to squeeze a cat5 still.
  14. Offically now a category 3, first major of the season. As for whether it becomes a 5, typically systems in this part of the GoM don't get that high, but then again there is always a chance...I'd say something between 125-135kts is looking probable, anything above that is at the whims of any EWRC and maybe the shear.
  15. I think I saw on the dropsonde something borderline cat-4 around 800mbs up, not hard to see that mixing down to the surface in pretty quick order given the strong convectiob and tigthening eyewall. Simply put, this will 100% be a cat-4 sooner rather than later. Beyond that and something in the 920s would be my best guess for lowest point, but its a large strong hurricane and regardless of 940 or 920 its going to be a very powerful hurricane upon landfall, even if there is a little shear around to take the edge off the top end at landfall.
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