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kold weather

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kold weather last won the day on September 4 2011

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About kold weather

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    west-ham,flight-Simulator 2004!!
    Weather, esp the tropics!

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  1. kold weather

    Winter 2018/19

    I remember a couple of years ago doing some statistical analysis on the best possible state of the enso and the nao and found that for a negative nao there seemed to be a peak around the +1.2c Mark. We probably won't be far off that point come the DJF average I suspect.
  2. Thunder just heard from elevated line in SW surrey, can see the rain bands but appears not much makes the ground.
  3. kold weather

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Having looked at the ensembles, its the hottest run out of the ensemble suite, but that's not to say there isn't also some other very hot runs, plenty go to 30c which would probably translate something up to a 33-34C max. Also the control run has been generally showing 30-35C maxes now for some time in that timeframe...
  4. kold weather

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    ECM control run goes fully off the handle in the back end of the run, going from widespread 29-32C upto 35C (with widespread 32-34C in the SE on the 27th. Interestingly this is a long run now from the ECM control going plus 32C+. Probably would challenge the record IF it came off like that. July record would easily go in such a set-up as well, probably 20C+ average. Most runs remain very warm, there are a few downright hot runs, though the mean would probably be for maxes similar levels to this weekend just gone, 26-28C. I suspect much like often happens in winter blocking set-ups, the GFS is trying to undercut the upper high too rapidly and I suspect high pressure will remain dominant.
  5. kold weather

    Drought - Summer - 2018?

    I had some rain a few days ago, but overall an exceptionally dry period, certainly less than 2mm since late May. Not convinced there will be much to be had either over the enxt 10 days for the SE.
  6. Still looking very warm over the next 10 days, temperatures have slightly lifted higher than what was originally forecasted a week ago for this week. The ECM is more keen on a more blocked pattern compared to the 00z GFs which is much more tentative. Worth noting the 00z ECM has 0mm of rain over a fair portion of the SE quarter over the next 240hrs, probably 5-10mm further NW you go, but nothing to wet even further north.
  7. I did think the big East swing this morning look quite suspect based on the radar from yesterday evening and overnight. Probably METO orginal warning was close to the mark, current warning isn't west enough I suspect.
  8. That cell was intense, drove right through the core on the A3.constant lightning and very heavy rain. At its worst visibility was down to about 25m, so very dangerous driving conditions but a cool experience all the same.
  9. Jaynemc I drove through that cell down the A3, at one point visibility was no more than 25m, very dangerous driving condition in the core of that cell. Almost constant lighting, spotted some great cc lightning on the way in.
  10. Probably a little snow this evening but I suspect probably a dusting for most, not too strong looking and pretty small coverage and quick moving. 1-2hrs of light-mod snow it seems at the moment IF it does make it. Far from certain. It will be a nice bonus but I'd not expect much at all. Expectations need to be low IMO
  11. Ended up with about 2 inches here, not a bad effort and even the road eventually got a coating.
  12. Interesting to see how this is evolving. Bands are now lining up south-north and not making a great deal of progress west. Places with snow falling have a good few hours yet, esp in the far west of the region. Back in end of system looks interesting from Brighton-Lobdon and some interesting convective cells in the channel heading NNW.
  13. No expecting too much where I am. Unfortunately looks like the bands have setup in such a way that I will probably only get a little snow. Am in the middle of a slight dead zone, heavier stuff nearby but only a thin wedge before more light tosh again.
  14. You watch that will probably be wrong now. Hirlam has done so well, but watch it bust and not give us a thing! If it comes off probably a quick 2-3cms, it moves through quite quickly unfortunately.
  15. Just the way it goes sometimes. Hirlam once again has been great with picking up new trends before other models. Interestingly the GFS has slowed things down, as has some other models which may allow a longer spell of light to moderate snow over the west of the area.