[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 feb1991blizzard

It sums up the UKs luck in a nutshell .

As the cold is heading sw from Scandi in rides the spoiler. I’m beginning to think the UK is cursed .

It’s been a catalogue of misfortune for the whole winter . 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The ECM does bring some interest after a shaky start .

It did drop the ball between day 3 and 4 where it has the more progressive upstream trough .

This then means any cold pool gets thrown nw . The differences between the ECM and UKMO highlight the impact of relatively small changes in the depth and track of any cold pool .

Later the ECM tries to salvage affairs with the low trying to track ne and some colder pooling to the ne heading sw . 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch

This is the January spell we’re talking about . The ECM was struggling even within T72 hrs .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The last time we were chasing a cold pool from the east the ECM was awful and really was very slow to develop that and bring it into the UK . It was one of its worst performances of the winter .

In terms of the overall pattern it’s of course frustrating that this more interesting set up appears in March when we’ve had to endure a woeful February .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Chasing cold pools around a Scandi high . What fun ! 

We have been here before many times . Certainly I wouldn’t rule out something colder from the east or ne .

Regardless of the ECM op looking less enthusiastic this morning  the signal for high pressure to the east or ne remains .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The ECM might well have some coldies coming out of hibernation !

I’m not a lover of spring cold which often leaves one feeling underwhelmed at the good winter synoptics  arriving too late but it would be rude not to indulge the ECM for a few runs ! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I’m not a fan of cold springs and you always get the feeling it’s just rubbing salt into the wounds of coldies as the perfect winter synoptics  turn up too late .

The SSW due around the 5th March does seem to show signs of effecting the trop quite quickly .

Whether that adds up to a reminder of winter still to be determined .

A sign that things might be developing on that front is the troughing anchored to the west of the UK starts to disrupt energy se and elongates rather than just the revolving more bowling ball trough set up .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The GFS and UKMO on the same page at day 7 . 

The low over the UK fills and pressure building to the ne and east . This looks like a response to the falling zonal winds . The GFS then keeps high pressure in charge .

Shame there’s no cold to latch onto at this point .

The GEM wants to keep a more windy and unsettled spell with low pressure in charge . Although it could eventually turn colder as the jet sinks further south.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 blizzard81

It has been a very bizarre winter . The strat forecasts which have in the past been reliable have bitten the dust . We’ve had some decent ingredients but have ended up with the food equivalent of Spam !

It will probably go down as the biggest recent failure in longer range modeling.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Rain All Night

It used to be that strat forecasts were much more reliable than the normal outputs . Sadly that hasn’t been the case , combined with the useless EC46 fantasy charts and the ensemble colder clusters at medium range imploding it’s been a very poor show from the NWP when predicting cold .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Any interest isn’t till FI .

We have seen this script before and have the sledges gathering dust in the garage to show for it ! 

As you head towards the end of February you need better synoptics to deliver and we need some northern blocking if we’re to tap into a decent cold source.

A two hour slush fest just isn’t going to cut it .

Personally I’m not a fan of cold springs where the perfect synoptics turn up to remind you of what might have been !

I love snow and cold but have a low opinion of slush ! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

And yet another change on the ECM .

It’s  becoming a total embarrassment at longer range . We’ve had a series of fails from the ECM .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

At the moment it looks like another ECM UKMO fail .

Together with the GEM it looks like the GFS was more correct .

The outputs look like treading water and now apparently the SSW could have ruined another more promising trop pattern .

It seems like heads you lose tails you lose . 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Johnp

The GFS 06 hrs run didn’t read the script . It was supposed to throw a few scraps to us coldies.

Instead it’s delivered a horror show .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I’m willing to hold on for a few more days as I’m a sucker for punishment !

The zonal winds have peaked and are set to fall rapidly from now so maybe we might see some better outputs .

Models don’t always like these sudden changes . 

It might sound like straw clutching but we could still see something towards the end of February .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The wait for any sign of colder weather continues .

What sums up the outputs is the low to the sw which you’d expect to clear east allowing a stronger wedge of heights to develop to the north just sits there for days waiting to phase with the deeper upstream trough .

We still  might scrape a brief easterly but there’s no cold left to the east .

It’s really like pulling teeth at the moment !

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Severe Siberian icy blast

It’s been very strange .  I don’t remember a winter like it.  It’s been even the shorter timeframe charts imploding . 

Highlighted by the ECM and UKMO debacle . 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Mike Poole

A rampant PV whilst depressing means you don’t get false hope .

Theres also an issue this winter with ensembles and the ECM 46 which I’m beginning to loathe .

Anyway I’m sounding very moany and will likely receive one of those action taken against .....

You know it sounds like you’re going to be hauled away and chucked in a cell, but in reality you just were a bit moany and the mods moved your post ! 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

We seem to have had a general pattern this winter where any amplification even at closer timeframes tends to get watered down .

Also it’s been a real struggle to get energy to head se .

We can see it with the output . We have that wedge but everything runs more ne .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 TEITS

Sadly even the surprises at day ten don’t go anywhere . 

Time to put this winter out of its misery . Even worse that we didn’t really have a strong PV for most of the winter which makes the fact it was generally woeful even more disappointing.

We might get thrown a few scraps towards March but once again it’s been a winter to forget .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

You almost aren’t surprised anymore .

The ECM now drops its more interesting morning output. Even when you have better background signals it just seems we’re more likely to see a manned mission to Mars land before we   get a decent cold spell .

No doubt the perfect synoptics will land in the Spring .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The models seem to be converging on the overall pattern .

So that small wedge to the nw , low to the east with a shortwave running east across the UK .

The upstream troughing ejects eastwards and then we see heights lifting to the ne and high pressure moving into the Arctic from the Pacific side .

Theres a chance we could see a change to colder conditions for the last third of the month .

Surely something must go right ! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The  ECM and UKMO have shifted to a new evolution. Let’s hope this is the right trend and it accelerates because the alternative is effectively a long drawn out mind numbing stalemate between the Atlantic and high pressure to the east .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

It looks like only retrogression of the high and drop down of troughing to the east will be able to inject some decent cold uppers into Europe .

Sadly our limpet low does the damage earlier by blasting away most of the cold .

And mainland Europe can’t develop its own cold pooling at this time of the year under anticyclonic conditions .

So unless there’s some earlier changes to help hold that deeper cold at least to the ne then we’re effectively looking at the last third of February for any chance of something decent .

The swing doors at the last chance saloon are about to start swinging ! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

An improved GFS 06 hrs run from a very low base .

The limpet low doesn’t phase with vorticity to the nw so we don’t get the deeper low edging nw .

It’s a start !